Week 10 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspective…
I hope you’ve been getting some trades done because the trade deadline is fast approaching in most leagues.
Go check your league settings right now. The window may be closing very soon for you to get your guys and/or sell your duds!
Let’s get into this week’s players to buy, sell, or hold.
Player to buy
Patterns are emerging! It’s time to get out your pocketbook and think about buying:
Justin Jefferson, WR - Vikings
Justin Jefferson is a conditional buy.
You see, Jefferson's got a big reputation. Because of his yearly 1.01-worthy stats, his name alone wields power, which will make this a tough market for buyers.
Jefferson will be returning from IR very soon, and his QB woes are now a distant memory. Joshua Dobbs has commanded the Vikings' offense with precision in his first two games in Minnesota even without their superstar WR, so just imagine what the Dobbs-Jefferson connection will be able to do…
Oh yeah, I mentioned conditions, didn’t I? The Vikings' acquisition of Dobbs means that fantasy managers with Jefferson are no longer in panic mode, which also means that he won’t be easily acquired in a trade anymore. This means that you should only be buying Jefferson if:
- You’re a serious playoff contender. Without knowing when exactly he'll be back, it's probably too risky to be trading for Jefferson if your team is currently less than .500. I’m personally only buying if my team is sitting at 6-4 or better.
- The current team with Jefferson is in a position to sell. You have to put yourself in their shoes: if they’ve held onto Jefferson this long, they're probably not selling unless they have a losing record and are in dire need of immediate wins.
Takeaway: It won't be easy to buy Jefferson, but I’ve seen it happen this year. Good f*cking luck! I’m rooting for JJ to be your endgame.
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Players to sell
Sometimes there’s bad writing on the wall even when a player has been performing. It’s time to think about selling.
Raheem Mostert, RB - Dolphins
Some might say that Miami is the city where the heat is on, and it’s likely because Raheem Mostert has been on fire.
Through nine games, Mostert has failed to score a TD in just two of those games. Only one of his "dud" weeks has resulted in less than 45 rushing yards, and Mostert has scored multiple TDs in three games this season.
Saying that Mostert has been great for fantasy managers so far in 2023 is an understatement. Then why sell?
Well, De’Von Achane is why.
Oct 15, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) runs with the football against Carolina Panthers safety Matthias Farley (41) during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Achane returned to practice on Monday, and the Dolphins are expected to activate him from IR for this week's matchup against the Raiders. While it may take a game or two for Miami to ease Achane back into his pre-injury workload of 40% to 50% of the rushing attempts, it’s clear the electric rookie RB's return will affect Mostert’s opportunities, and not in a good way.
Miami eased the rookie in, not giving Achane much opportunity until Week 3. However, once he got going, Mostert’s rush share dipped from an average of 59% in the first two weeks of the season to just 39% from Weeks 3 to 5.
Adding insult to injury, Mostert’s target share, which benefited him earlier in the season, has also decreased in recent weeks prior to Miami's bye:
- Week 6: 11%
- Week 7: 6%
- Week 8: 0%
- Week 9: 3%
While there was enough room for both Mostert and Achane to each have a piece of the pie early in the season, the Dolphins' offense hasn’t been quite as efficient in their most recent games.
Ultimately, I’m a believer in Achane and think that he'll find his way back in the RB1 discussion sooner rather than later.
Takeaway: Best-case scenario: Mostert will split touches with Achane. Worst-case scenario: Achane will steal the spotlight completely. Sell Mostert now.
T.J. Hockenson, TE - Vikings
I love a good tight end. And I like the football position, too. But T.J. Hockenson’s workload projects to take a hit pretty soon.
Hockenson is certainly talented, but his recent production has been heavily volume-driven. Here are Hockenson's target share splits when Justin Jefferson was healthy from Weeks 1 to 5 compared to when Jefferson was out from Weeks 6 to 10:
- Weeks 1-5: 19%, 19%, 24%, 17%, 19%
- Weeks 6-10: 27%, 26%, 27%, 34%, 45%
Nov 12, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) celebrates his touchdown against the New Orleans Saints in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
When Jefferson returns, Hockenson's target share is likely going to look more like it did over the first five weeks of the year.
It's also worth mentioning that even without Jefferson's impending return, there's no way Hockenson could survive the heavy target volume he's been seeing considering the beating he's taken over the last couple of weeks. That kind of usage simply isn't sustainable for most TEs.
I’m looking to capitalize on his big performance against a vulnerable Saints defense that also just allowed 6-55-2 to Cole Kmet in Week 9. This is a great time to sell Hockenson if you have another viable TE option on your roster or can get a young TE like Dalton Kincaid or Sam LaPorta-plus for him.
Takeaway: I'd look to sell high on Hockenson ASAP with Jefferson returning possibly as soon as this week.
Player to hold
Here are some “They did so great, I bet I could get some value for them right now" players that we are not letting go of, no matter what.
Remember, we’re not chasing the next big thing if we already have it.
Jaylen Warren, RB - Steelers
Oh babyyyyy! I have been waiting for this!
Jaylen Warren was touted by analysts and fans alike in the offseason. I’ve been rostering him on my bench for a while just watching…waiting…quietly preparing for the day that he'd become a confident starter in my lineup.
We’ve seen Warren surpass Najee Harris in efficiency nearly every week, and it seems that Pittsburgh's coaches have finally taken notice.
While RBs feel like the most treasured assets in leagues due to scarcity at the position, I’d advise you not to sell unless you're getting insane value. Bigger and better things are coming for Warren, so trust in the talent! Warren could be taking over soon.
Takeaway: If luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity, then what do you call it when talent meets opportunity? It doesn’t matter. Just answer any calls asking about Warren with a simple “no thanks”.
Other players to target in trades or on waivers
DeVonta Smith, WR - Eagles
Jonathan Taylor, RB - Colts
