Week 11 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspective…
With Turkey Day nearly upon us, it means that the trade deadline is also fast approaching in most leagues.
Go check your league settings right now. The window may be closing very soon for you to get your guys and/or sell your duds!
Let’s get into this week’s players to buy, sell, or hold.
Players to buy
Patterns are emerging! It’s time to get out your pocketbook and think about buying:
Michael Pittman, WR - Colts
While everyone was checking their recipes and finalizing their Thanksgiving plans last weekend, Michael Pittman was sneaking past Week 11 with the Colts on bye.
Sure, Pittman hasn’t been super sexy this year. But even though he hasn't broken 20 PPR points since Week 1, Pittman is quietly the WR16 in PPR points per game (PPG) through 11 weeks and has been remarkably consistent from week to week. In fact, he's failed to score double-digit PPR points in only one game thus far in 2023.
Nov 12, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) warms up before a game against the New England Patriots during an International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
And not only has Pittman been consistently producing, he’s also about to face some very fantasy-friendly WR matchups over the next few weeks. The Colts will get three defenses ranked 24th or lower in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs in their next four matchups:
- Week 12: Buccaneers allowing 38.9 PPR PPG to WRs (28th)
- Week 13: Titans allowing 38.4 PPR PPG to WRs (27th)
- Week 15: Steelers allowing 37.5 PPR PPG to WRs (24th)
Not sexy. Not shiny. Not a player that comes with a ceiling that will take your breath away. But Pittman has the potential for big games down the stretch, and he’s had a much higher weekly floor than some of the other WR2s who've scored similarly thus far.
Takeaway: Easy matchups on the horizon.
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Courtland Sutton, WR - Broncos
It's important to note that Courtland Sutton is a better buy if you wait until after the Broncos face an elite Browns defense in Week 12. You know, before your leaguemates can scour the internet or read any Buy, Sell, Hold articles once the games conclude.
Why?
Well, simply put, the Browns' defense has been very good. especially against opposing WRs. Cleveland currently ranks third-best against QBs, eighth against RBs, and first against TEs. They also rank third-best against opposing WRs through 11 weeks.
In fact, the Browns have allowed the fewest passing yards and passing TDs to opposing teams on the year.
But look, I’m not here to swoon over Cleveland's impressive D. I swear. Instead, this is a roundabout way of saying that Courtland Sutton has been good in recent weeks, so he may be a bit cheaper to buy after what could be a low-scoring output against the Browns this week.
Sutton has scored a TD in five straight games, and that trend is likely to continue, as he's been Russell Wilson's most trusted red-zone target to date. That TD streak probably won't continue this week, but Sutton has better matchups on the horizon after this tough matchup against the Cleveland secondary.
Let your leaguemate hold onto him for one more week. That way, when Sutton finally has a down week, you can maybe swoop in and buy a bit lower than his current going rate.
Takeaway: Timing is everything.
Player to sell
Sometimes there’s bad writing on the wall even when a player has been performing. It’s time to think about selling.
Calvin Ridley, WR - Jaguars
Hey! Remember, September 10th, 2023?
Yes, that’s the last time that Calvin Ridley had over 100 yards and a TD in the same game. It’s also one of only two games where Ridley’s seen 10 or more targets this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley (0) hauls in a reception for a touchdown score during the third quarter of an NFL football matchup Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the Tennessee Titans 34-14. Photo Credit: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK
There’s no denying the fact that Ridley deserves to highlight his skillset like this every week, but his production in Week 11 was likely the best fantasy performance he'll have all year.
With five games of 5.5 points or less on the season, Ridley's ceiling games have been few and far between, and his weekly floor is nonexistent. I’m selling high on Ridley if anyone in your league is willing to roll the dice on him.
Takeaway: I'm still not comfortable starting Ridley even after last week. Maybe someone else will be.
Players to hold
Here are some “They did so great, I bet I could get some value for them right now" players that we are not letting go of, no matter what.
Remember, we’re not chasing the next big thing if we already have it.
David Montgomery, RB - Lions
In the two games following his return from injury, David Montgomery has rewarded fantasy managers that held onto him through the mental anguish of watching Jahmyr Gibbs’s breakout.
Montgomery has even scored relatively similarly to his rookie counterpart over the last two weeks. This might allow fantasy managers who have Montgomery to breathe a not-so-small sigh of relief as they make plans to sell.
Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery (5) runs the ball against Chicago Bears during second half action at Ford Field Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023. Photo Credit: Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK
And look, as a self-proclaimed panic trader, this does feel like a good time to take the opportunity to rid your team of the headache that is Detroit's split backfield.
However, it's possible that the Lions' offense might be good enough to support two reliable fantasy RBs going forward. Gibbs could be a reliable fantasy producer with the majority of the passing down work, especially in PPR formats, while Montgomery could still contribute solid fantasy weeks leading the team in rush share with both getting into the end zone more weeks than not.
Considering that the Lions currently rank third in rushing TDs (16), seventh in rushing attempts (297), and sixth in rushing yards (1,366), I’m willing to gamble that Montgomery can be a viable fantasy RB2 rest-of-season even sharing the load alongside Gibbs.
Takeaway: I'm starting to trust the Lions' split backfield. Remember, Dan Campbell: sharing is caring.
Diontae Johnson & George Pickens, WRs - Steelers
Tuesday morning brought hope to Steelers fans and fantasy managers alike in the wake of the news that Pittsburgh had finally fired their offensive coordinator, Matt Canada.
The Steelers' offense had struggled to get the ball (and fantasy points) to both Diontae Johnson and George Pickens all year.
But with Canada now out of the picture, everyone (including Mike Tomlin) is hopeful that Pittsburgh's offensive slump might finally be behind them.
If you’ve held on to Johnson and Pickens for this long, don’t give up on them now. Maybe Kenny Pickett was and still is the problem, but there's at least a chance that things can improve on offense with Canada gone.
After all, there's no guarantee that the Steelers' offense will magically be fixed with RBs coach Eddie Faulkner serving as the offensive coordinator with QBs coach Mike Sullivan calling plays, but it's hard to imagine the offense getting any worse.
Hold Johnson and Pickens. Let’s see what this new regime can do.
Takeaway: Change isn't always good, but it probably is when it involves Matt Canada being gone.
Other players to target in trades or on waivers
Trey McBride, TE - Cardinals
Ty Chandler, RB - Vikings
