Week 12 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspective…
As we head into the trade deadline territory for most leagues, it’s important for you to get a grip on the reality of your team. It’s go time! It's now or never to get some trades done.
So before time runs out, you need to do some work on the back end if you want to successfully pull off a season winning trade. Here are three key areas to address when making trades just before the deadline.
- Critically analyze your playoff chances. Gauge exactly how many wins (or losses from other teams) you need to clinch the playoffs and/or a first-round bye. If you need to win out, you may need to be a little riskier and make a blockbuster trade. If you’re out of contention in a dynasty or keeper league, stay active. You should look to trade away productive veterans to contending teams for some rookie picks or a keeper who you can keep for a late-round pick next season.
- Assess the strengths and weaknesses of your team. Which positions are your strengths? Is your bench deep enough at a particular position that you can consolidate two depth pieces to upgrade a starter? If you haven’t already been taking inventory, now is the f*cking time. Winners know their own weaknesses.
- Actively seek out mutually beneficial trade partners. This is a continuation of the point above. After assessing your own strengths and weaknesses, do the same with your leaguemates’ teams. Like an intricate puzzle, you'll be more successful at trading if you’ve done the work on the back end. A suitable trade partner's needs should match up to your strengths, and that trade partner's available players should match up to your needs.
For example, my home league roster has plenty of depth at WR with Deebo Samuel, Tank Dell, D.K. Metcalf, Ja’Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua. An ideal trade partner for me in this league would be a team that's WR-needy and has a potential upgrade for me at QB, RB, or TE (or an elite WR1 in return for multiple WR2s).
Alright, that’s enough general trade theory. Let’s get into this week’s players to buy, sell, or hold.
Players to buy
Patterns are emerging! It’s time to get out your pocketbook and think about buying:
C.J. Stroud, QB - Texans
C.J. Stroud has been one of the most impressive rookie QBs in recent memory, so he's not a “buy low” by any means.
While he does have some tougher matchups coming up against the Jets and Browns, Stroud seems to be almost matchup proof. He's shown a league-winning ceiling with recent 30 and even 40-point performances, which is something I’m interested in buying.
Those are the types of games that can bring home titles. Stroud should be a trade target if you’re gunning for a championship and can pry him away for a mix of players that don’t leave your other positions high and dry.
In Week 12, Stroud scored 30.86 fantasy points, and he could've had an even bigger day had this bomb to Tank Dell not been nullified by a penalty.
Hot.
Takeaway: Do your risk assessment, but elite QB play has been hard to come by in 2023. I’m trying to make this trade happen anywhere I can.
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Courtland Sutton, WR - Broncos
Phew. We made it through Denver’s rough matchup against Cleveland’s defense this past week. If you recall, I broke down reasons to buy Courtland Sutton last week after his projected dud game against the Browns in Week 12.
But even in a tough matchup, Sutton still managed to get three receptions for 61 yards. I was hoping for a worse outing to tank his trade value a bit more, but at least this gives us even more reason to buy him with confidence.
Nov 26, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Cleveland Browns cornerback Greg Newsome II (0) deflects a pass to Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) in the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Sutton has been Russell Wilson's favorite red-zone target this year, and that shouldn't change over this final stretch of games.
It's also worth noting that over the next five weeks, Denver faces the Chargers twice along with the Lions and Patriots. All of those opposing defenses offer favorable matchups to the WR position.
Takeaway: Nice schedule and TDs in all but three games. Solid WR that shouldn’t break the bank.
Players to sell
Sometimes there’s bad writing on the wall even when a player has been performing. It’s time to think about selling.
Austin Ekeler, RB - Chargers
Dammit, I really didn’t want to write this one.
So I’m not going to remind you about this clip that went viral after Austin Ekeler slugged across Lambeau Field in Week 11. I’m also not going to point out that Ekeler has finished with single-digit fantasy scores in four of his last seven games. And I’m really not going to say anything about the three fumbles he's lost in his last five games.
Nope, I’m not going to say anything negative.
On a positive note, utilization metrics are in Ekeler’s favor. But while that may be true, I want players that I can trust heading into the playoffs where every matchup counts. So to quote Mark Cuban: “and for that reason, I’m out.”
Takeaway: I'm not willing to risk a fantasy football championship on his inconsistencies and red flags.
Rashee Rice, WR - Chiefs
Who doesn’t love a 100-yard outing along with a TD to boot?
Rashee Rice did just that in Week 12, but that was just his second game in 2023 with 15 or more PPR points. Rice has also failed to reach a double-digit PPR score in five of his 11 games played this year.
The rookie's role has grown in recent weeks, but since Tyreek Hill left for Miami, we’ve seen over the last couple of seasons how Patrick Mahomes has spread the ball around behind Travis Kelce rather than lean on a single WR.
Nov 26, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) makes a reception against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Rice saw a season-high 10 targets in Week 12, but there’s no guarantee that this type of volume or production will be sustainable going forward. It's especially risky because his increase in targets last week could've been partially part due to the absence of both Kadarius Toney and Jerick McKinnon.
While holding onto Rice isn’t an insane idea, I’d rather sell high if possible after his big game against the Raiders before Toney and McKinnon return to the lineup. With many leagues having their trade deadlines this week, this could be your last chance to try and upgrade from Rice to a more consistent WR for the stretch run.
Takeaway: Sell high on this boom-or-bust WR while he's on a hot streak.
Player to hold
Here are some “They did so great, I bet I could get some value for them right now" players that we are not letting go of, no matter what.
Remember, we’re not chasing the next big thing if we already have it.
Kyren Williams, RB - Rams
Look, I see you. This isn’t your first fantasy football rodeo.
You’re always trying to capitalize on a big game to “sell high” on a player, aren’t you? You’re quick on your feet (like Kyren Williams). You’re always calculating your next move so that no one can catch you (like Kyren Williams). And at the end of the day, you want players who can blow up and score a ton of fantasy points in any given week (like Kyren Williams). Are you picking up what I’m putting down?
Don’t overthink this one. Williams returned from IR in Week 12, and Sean McVay promptly waived Darrell Henderson and threw Williams right back into his previous role.
The role: THAT DAWG.
Was I a bit nervous about Williams heading into last week? Absolutely.
Am I nervous going forward? Not in the slightest. There are no indications that the Kyren Williams express is going to slow down any time soon.
Sure, he has a couple of tougher matchups coming up against strong Cleveland and Baltimore defenses, Williams is a bonafide bell-cow. We waited a while for his return, but boy, was it worth it.
Takeaway: I’ve got a fever, and the only prescription is more bell-cows.
Other players to target in trades
Dak Prescott, QB - Cowboys
Bijan Robinson, RB - Falcons
