Week 13 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspective…
Trade deadlines have passed in most leagues, but that doesn't mean that things are over just yet. Just because you can no longer beef up your juicy rosters from your leaguemates’ player pools doesn’t mean that you can’t still make moves.
There are a few concepts to consider as we move into fantasy playoff territory. So let’s talk about some conceptual buying and selling!
Buy
It's handcuffing SZN
While trading is no longer an option in most redraft leagues, we’re still able to churn waivers. And if we learned absolutely anything from Week 13, it’s that injuries are f*cking everywhere.
Fantasy teams with Jonathan Taylor and Rhamondre Stevenson were eagerly looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, but alas, things can change quickly in fantasy football land.
Dec 3, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) is helped by the athletic staff after an injury on a play against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
While we wish pain on no one, it's unfortunately part of the game. Strategically, you need to be prepared to stash the next man up in valuable backfields for fantasy. So let’s talk about the main principles of handcuffing.
- Identify bell-cows. Few NFL offenses still use just one main RB in the year of Barbie 2023, but they do exist. Handcuffing a bell-cow RB is worth the bench spot, especially this late in the season.
- Get a piece of high-powered offenses. NFL teams that score a lot generally also produce fantasy players who score a lot. It’s really that simple. When choosing a handcuff, you need to consider which offenses will actually get that player close to the end zone even if he were to start. So maybe we don’t want to stash players from NFL teams that are averaging fewer points than the legal age limit to drive. Here's something to think about…
- Familiarize yourself with player utilization. Lucky for you, our team has compiled all of that data for you here. Look at usage trends because depth charts don’t always tell the full story. Which players are actually getting carries and running routes even if the fantasy points haven't been there?
Now that you understand handcuffing SZN, how to identify the next man up, and where to look for relevant usage data, here are a few of my favorite RB handcuffs to stash heading into the final week of the fantasy regular season.
Tyjae Spears, RB - Titans
There was a little bit of a scare in Week 13 when Derrick Henry exited the game during the fourth quarter. With Henry out, Tyjae Spears took the field. If you haven't seen much of Spears this season, here are a few examples of what he can do.
Speaking of bell-cows, Henry's 197 rushing attempts currently ranks fourth among RBs through 13 weeks. Spears has already shown flashes of his talent even with Henry on the field, and the rookie RB is projected to see a big workload if Henry were to miss time.
While the Titans have cleared Henry from concussion protocol, and he's currently expected to play in Week 14, Spears should still be a priority handcuff to stash for teams heading into the fantasy playoffs.
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Elijah Mitchell, RB - 49ers
Look, if we’re going to talk about high-powered offenses and league-winning RBs, you know that we obviously have to talk about the 49ers and Christian McCaffrey.
Thus far in 2023, McCaffrey currently leads the league in rushing yards (1,032), ranks second in both rushing attempts (210), and is tied for the second-most rushing TDs (12).
This San Francisco offense has been firing on all cylinders the last few weeks with the return of a healthy Deebo Samuels and Trent Williams, and McCaffrey has been dominant with or without them on the field. And whether you agree or not, the 49ers might even have an NFL MVP on their hands.
So what does this have to do with Elijah Mitchell? Well, he just so happens to check all of the boxes for priority handcuffs.
- Projected bell-cow RB usage if McCaffrey were to miss time? ✅
- Potential to step into a starting role on a high-powered offense? ✅
- Next Man Up utilization? ✅
Here’s to hoping that there are no injuries in San Francisco, but in the event that McCaffrey were to miss time, Mitchell could be a league-winner. He should be a preemptive stash considering his incredible RB1 upside.
Rico Dowdle, RB - Cowboys
Not only does Rico Dowdle have league-winning upside if Tony Pollard were to miss time, Dowdle also has some standalone value.
He's scored three TDs this season, two of them through the air, and Dowdle has two double-digit fantasy performances even with Pollard healthy.
Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle (23) runs the ball in the first quarter against Washington Commanders linebacker Khaleke Hudson (47) at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
The Cowboys' offense has been on fire recently, and they have some potential shootout games coming up against the Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, and Lions to finish the season.
Dowdle doesn't have as much name value as Spears or Mitchell, but he has similar upside as a dual threat runner and receiver out of the backfield if Pollard were to miss time during the fantasy playoffs.
Sell
Blaming your season on bad luck
Pardon me while I put away my teeny, tiny little violin, but here’s some tough love: No one wants to hear about your “what if”s in Week 14. Or in the playoffs and offseason, for that matter.
I’m not saying that you shouldn’t feel frustrated if injuries or bad luck caused your team to miss the fantasy playoffs. I’m not saying that you can’t clench your fists or that you shouldn’t feel cheated in some capacity.
BUT fantasy football is a game with tons of variables. Part of the fun comes from the curveballs and unexpected outcomes. Sometimes the weirdly-shaped oblong ball just doesn't bounce your way.
Don’t forget: everyone has to deal with the same sh*t.
Just look at the number of players that went on IR this season. No position was safe. Even though RBs and WRs tend to miss more time, even QBs weren't spared in 2023:
No roster is safe. A team in my home league lost Justin Jefferson, De’Von Achane, and Khalil Herbert in Week 5. Many rosters are scrambling now after a slew of new injuries in Week 13. It’s not fun, but it happens. To think that your luck is worse than anyone else's is just incorrect.
I’ll leave you with this: If “bad luck” befell everyone around you, but your players stayed healthy and you won a championship, would you consider yourself lucky or a champion?
That’s right. A win is a win. And a winner is a winner. So inversely, a loser is a loser, and that’s all there is to it.
It's okay if you're not going to make the fantasy playoffs. As Taylor Swift would say, “shake it off”. Or as Bill Belichick would say, “we're on to 2024”.
