Buying or Selling? Biggest Fantasy Football ADP Movers in August.
August is a big month for fantasy football diehards. Not only is draft season in the air, but training camp updates and preseason action give the masses high-level “adjust the ranks” ammunition that hasn’t been readily available for quite some time.
Of course, the second-by-second nature of social media and reactions in general can cause many an overreaction to news that maybe doesn't warrant a large adjustment.
What follows is a look at some of the biggest movers in average draft position (ADP) from August 1 to present day and whether their ADP movement is warranted.
QBs
Riser: Sam Howell
- Aug 1 ADP: 197.2
- Current ADP: 181.2
Howell not only locked up the Commanders’ QB1 job but did so in style with 188-2-0 and 77-1-0 performances during the first two weeks of the preseason.
There’s reason for optimism on Howell both as a real-life QB and as a fantasy QB. The rising second-year signal-caller’s deep-ball goodness and 183-828-11 rushing line in his final season at North Carolina paint the picture of a fantasy-friendly QB, something he also demonstrated at the NFL level with a QB7 finish in Week 18 of last season.
Aug 21, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) attempts a pass against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Nobody is going to use a draft pick on Howell in traditional 1QB leagues, but he offers some legit upside as a late-round dart throw in best ball and superflex formats. I’ve preferred deploying a “first or last” strategy when drafting QBs in best ball due to the position flying off the board at a ridiculously fast rate, and Howell has been someone I’ve enjoyed stacking with Terry McLaurin and/or Jahan Dotson when possible.
Verdict: I’m buying Howell’s rise in ADP thanks to his proven fantasy-friendly skill set and confirmation that he will start over Jacoby Brissett.
Honorable mention: Jordan Love
- Aug 1 ADP: 164.2
- Current ADP: 151.8
This one is a bit tougher to wrap the mind around. While Love has made a few nice throws in the preseason, things haven’t been perfect, and this remains one of the more unproven groups of pass-catchers in the NFL. I see no reason why Love should be going a round ahead of guys like Brock Purdy or Matthew Stafford.
Faller: Kyler Murray
- Aug 1 ADP: 149.4
- Current ADP: 162.0
It remains unclear when Murray will return to the field. Failure to activate him from the PUP list by next week will result in the former No. 1 overall pick missing at least the first four games of the season, so there’s a decent chance that we won’t see Murray until October at the earliest. And yet, at this point in the draft, who exactly offers more best-case scenario upside?
Murray is regularly being drafted after the top-50 RBs, top-70 WRs, and top-18 TEs are already off the board, so he’s a lottery ticket at a stage in the draft where managers will usually settle for a scratch-off. And Murray has a strong track record of fantasy production any time he's been on the field:
- 2022: 18.2 fantasy points per game (QB7)
- 2021: 21.5 (QB4)
- 2020: 23.7 (QB4)
- 2019: 17.8 (QB11)
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) is carted off after an injury against the New England Patriots during the first quarter at State Farm Stadium on Dec. 12, 2022. Nfl Cardinals Patriots 1213 New England Patriots At Arizona Cardinals Photo Credit: Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
Don’t be afraid to draft Murray very late in redraft leagues and stash him in your IR spot until he’s ready to go. Complete boom upside is far from a given in this rather grotesque Cardinals offense, but when healthy, even Jason Pierre-Paul doesn’t need two hands to count the number of fantasy QBs with more ceiling potential than Murray.
Verdict: I’m selling Murray’s slide, as Week 1 was never a realistic return date in the first place. Using a late-round pick on him is especially appealing in leagues that have IR spots or and/or keepers.
Honorable mention: Bryce Young
- Aug 1 ADP: 178.3
- Current ADP: 192.0
This one doesn’t make a ton of sense. Young “beat out” future Hall of Fame QB Andy Dalton (per Miles Sanders) and certainly carries some level of Year 1 upside given that he was the No. 1 overall pick. Similar to Howell, though, there’s no need to chase Young in traditional 1QB redraft formats. Still, his plunge in ADP feels unwarranted, so I’m a fan of adding him as my third signal-caller in 2QB and superflex formats at this steep discount.
RBs
Riser: Kenneth Gainwell
- Aug 1 ADP: 166.4
- Current ADP: 142.9
Training camp reports out of Philadelphia seemingly praise a different RB every day, but at a minimum, Gainwell has received “playing like a feature back” praise and drew the start in the team’s second preseason game with D’Andre Swift curiously resting.
There’s little doubt that either Swift or Gainwell could put up big-time fantasy numbers as the featured back in the league’s reigning third-ranked scoring offense. Of course, that sentiment is also probably true for Rashaad Penny and even Boston Scott or Trey Sermon as well. The issue for any Eagles RB in 2023 comes down to projected volume more than anything else.
Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Philadelphia Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell (14) makes a catch in the second quarte against the Kansas City Chiefs of Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Dual-threat QBs make for pretty spectacular fantasy assets, but their tendency to scramble instead of checking down and factor into the rushing equation near the goal line generally caps the fantasy ceilings of their RBs. This is why offenses like the Eagles, Bills, Seahawks, and Ravens have ranked among the league’s bottom-12 offenses in expected RB PPR points per game (PPG) despite having boasted top-12 scoring offenses over the past three seasons.
Only the Rams, Ravens, Bills, Jets, and Chiefs were less willing to give their RB 15-plus touches in a game last season, and Eagles RBs rank just 28th in targets over the past two seasons. Injuries could always force a coaching staff’s hand (see 2022 Rhamondre Stevenson), but don’t expect any Philadelphia RB to completely take over this backfield without multiple injuries.
Verdict: Gainwell has always been a quality late-round RB option thanks to the murkiness surrounding this entire backfield, but his recent rise in ADP now places him in RB4 territory. I’m not against still drafting him at this enhanced cost on rosters that are pretty much set at QB, WR, and TE by Rounds 13 or so, but realize this is becoming a steep price to pay for a RB who only totaled 76 touches in 17 regular season games last season.
Honorable mention: Khalil Herbert
- Aug 1 ADP: 118.0
- Current ADP: 96.6
The rising third-year back has dominated first-team usage throughout the preseason and was recently confirmed as the lead back by Bears RBs coach David Walker himself. Whether or not that leads to a true every-down role remains to be seen, but it’s certainly good news and warrants this sort of bump up in ADP. Herbert is plenty viable being drafted after the top-48 WRs, top-10 QBs and top-eight TEs are typically off the board in the same range as other RB3s like Antonio Gibson, A.J. Dillon, Zach Charbonnet, and Brian Robinson.
Faller: Jerome Ford
- Aug 1 ADP: 165.2
- Current ADP: 187.9
I wrote the following about Ford as my favorite Round 14 draft pick earlier in August before he suffered a hamstring injury.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler wrote the following about Ford back in his ever-excellent 2022 draft guide, ‘The Beast’:
'A one-year starter at Cincinnati, Ford became the Bearcats’ lead back as a junior in former offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock’s spread RPO offense. The Alabama transfer was a key reason behind Cincinnati’s run to the 2021 College Football Playoffs, leading the AAC in rushing and matching the school record for rushing touchdowns (19) in a season.
Ford has the lateral footwork and body strength to keep plays alive, flashing the open-field juice to gash defenses (averaged 6.1 yards per carry in his career). However, his vision and patience lack consistency, and he needs to improve his ball security and blocking to maintain the trust of his coaches.
Overall, Ford has room to improve his eyes and timing at the line of scrimmage to be more of a creator, but he has an effective blend of size, strength and speed with upside catching the football. He can provide a punch to an NFL team’s depth chart.'
Nov 20, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford (34) runs the ball as Buffalo Bills running back Taiwan Jones (25) pursues during the first quarter Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
The Browns only gave Ford eight offensive touches last season, but their offseason decisions to not re-sign Kareem Hunt or D’Ernest Johnson while also refraining from drafting a single RB speaks volumes to how they feel about the rising second-year back.
Seemingly cemented as the offense’s clear-cut No. 2 RB, Ford is one of the best late-round bets out there thanks to his potential to siphon away some of Hunt’s vacated fantasy-friendly pass-down work and to provide elite handcuff upside should Nick Chubb be forced to miss any time.
Like Jaylen Warren and Tank Bigsby, Ford’s value is heightened by the reality that most of the pass-catching options in this range are pretty gross.”
Fast forward to present day, and the Browns still haven’t signed anybody to threaten Ford's position as the No. 2 RB.
Verdict: The presence of Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt in free agency adds some hesitancy to too much exposure on any one backup RB, but Ford continues to have massive upside at a relatively small cost. His injury timeline has been called “week-to-week” from the beginning, and he’s projected to be back by Week 1. I’m buying the dip on one of fantasy’s most-valuable handcuffs.
Honorable mention: Breece Hall
- Aug 1 ADP: 34.7
- Current ADP: 43.0
The signing of Dalvin Cook suddenly turns this offense into a far more muddled committee. New offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s usage of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon during the first four weeks of 2022 could also signal a similar split between Hall and Cook in 2023. Hall’s plummet in ADP is warranted, but he's a fine pick in Round 4 given his league-winning upside and sometimes even slips into Round 5 in a few drafts.
WRs
Riser: Jayden Reed
- Aug 1 ADP: 174.8
- Current ADP: 165.0
Reed is projected to join Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in 3WR sets from Day 1 if his preseason utilization is any indication. More importantly, there's a chance that Reed is really good at football.
He earned Tier 2 treatment in the Fantasy Life Rookie WR Super Model and solid reviews from The Athletic’s Dane Brugler in his ever-excellent draft guide, “The Beast”:
“A three-year starter at Michigan State, Reed was a perimeter receiver in offensive coordinator Jay Johnson’s offense. Although his senior year fell short of expectations because of injuries and the Spartans’ offensive struggles, he accounted for 46 explosive plays (20-plus yards) over the past two seasons and became just the third player in school history with multiple punt return touchdowns in the same season.
Reed has outstanding foot quickness and skillfully throttles his route speed to separate from coverage. Despite dropping too many easy ones, his focus is heightened on contested windows, and he shows a knack for timing his leaps and snatching the football off the helmets of defensive backs.
Overall, Reed will have a tougher time overcoming his slight size vs. NFL defensive backs, but his speed, route tempo and downfield ball skills are the ingredients of a potential NFL playmaker. With a few technical tweaks to his game, he has NFL starting ability (slot and outside) and adds value as a return man.”
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed (11) pulls down a touchdown reception against New England Patriots cornerback Shaun Wade (26) during their preseason football game Saturday, August 19, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Photo Credit: Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin.
At Reed's ADP, it's hard to find WRs with a chance to be a top-three target earner in their offense, let alone one who might have talent to make an immediate impact even as a rookie.
Verdict: Reed is one of the best late-round WR values in all of fantasy football even with this bump in ADP. He, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and DeVante Parker are my three favorite late-round WR dart throws being drafted in Round 14 or later.
Honorable mention: George Pickens
- Aug 1 ADP: 76.5
- Current ADP: 66.8
I mean, did you see that preseason TD? Or the nonstop training camp highlights? Of course, it remains to be seen if Pickens can win as anything more than a vertical contested-catch artist on an offense that featured him as the third pass-catching option with Kenny Pickett under center last season. I continue to have a hard time pulling the trigger on Pickens over guys close to him in ADP like Gabriel Davis, Jahan Dotson, and Jordan Addison. After all, style points unfortunately don't count for extra in fantasy football land.
Faller: Jameson Williams
- Aug 1 ADP: 100.9
- Current ADP: 114.6
First, Williams dropped a pass in the Lions’ preseason opener. Next, he suffered a hamstring injury that's expected to keep him out the rest of the preseason.
And that’s pretty much it! Williams is, of course, serving a six-game suspension for gambling-related offenses, but he's still fully expected to work as one of the team’s starting WRs come Week 7.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed (11) pulls down a touchdown reception against New England Patriots cornerback Shaun Wade (26) during their preseason football game Saturday, August 19, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin. Photo Credit: Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
Look, the 2022 NFL Draft’s No. 12 overall pick is hardly a sure thing. Injury context surrounding his rookie year matters, but the list of first-round WRs who failed to gain even 250 yards in their rookie season is littered with busts.
Still, Williams's ADP is outside of the top-50 WRs, and he's being drafted after the top 15 QBs, 37 RBs, and 10 TEs are off the board. Williams is being selected in a range of drafts where no player is a sure thing, and not many players priced outside of the top-110 overall picks have Williams’s combination of underlying talent and potential target volume on a Lions offense without a clear No. 2 receiving option behind Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Verdict: Drafting Williams depends on roster construction. He’s not someone you want to take as your WR3 or even WR4, but for teams that already have a solid QB1, TE1, and decent starters at RB and WR, Williams has league-winning upside as a depth player.
Honorable mention: Rondale Moore
- Aug 1 ADP: 131.3
- Current ADP: 150.6
Previously thought to be the clear-cut No. 2 receiving option behind only Marquise Brown, rookie Michael Wilson has quickly relegated Moore to a slot-only role in 11 personnel. There’s also potential for camp standout and fellow short king Greg Dortch to make things annoying, so I'm generally passing on Cardinals WRs, Moore included.
TEs
Riser: Luke Musgrave
- Aug 1 ADP: 208.8
- Current ADP: 172.6
Musgrave joins Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta as projected Day 1 starters capable of providing far more fantasy production than your typical rookie TE. Musgrave's situation is especially alluring considering the lack of proven pass-catchers in Green Bay.
Of course, it’s easy this time of the year to paint a rosy picture for pretty much any TE. Don’t believe me? Just take a look.
Musgrave was previously available in the last round of drafts, which was ridiculously cheap. Just realize that his August hype doesn’t necessarily mean Musgrave will be a reliable starting TE in standard redraft leagues; he remains a much better upside pick in best ball where his likely inconsistent week-to-week production won't kill you.
Verdict: His rise in ADP is warranted, but I continue to do everything in my power to land a top-10 TE in redraft formats and fade the late-round TE options. Musgrave is far more appealing in dynasty and best ball formats.
Honorable mention: Jake Ferguson
- Aug 1 ADP: 204.7
- Current ADP: 170.6
Ferguson joins Musgrave as a warranted ADP riser given more clarity surrounding his potential to have an every-down role, but like the Packers’ rookie, Ferguson's rise in ADP doesn't mean he'll be a reliable weekly starter. Just because someone earns a bump from the TE3 desert to TE2 territory doesn’t mean that you should be thrilled to draft him.
Faller: Kyle Pitts
- Aug 1 ADP: 69.2
- Current ADP: 76.3
Early August concerns about Pitts’s knee being ready for Week 1 have largely evaporated with the rising third-year talent actively participating in practices and games alike, although his first-team preseason usage left a bit to be desired in Week 2.
While this usage could've been Atlanta just being conservative with his return, it’s a gentle reminder that head coach Arthur Smith’s old friend Jonnu Smith is a far more capable No. 2 TE than anyone Pitts was competing against for snaps last season and that Drake London remains projected to lead the Falcons in targets in 2023.
Jul 26, 2023; Flowery Branch, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (8) runs after a catch during the first day of training camp at IBM Performance Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Maybe talent will win out, and Pitts can finally compile the sort of big-time fantasy production that many expected from Day 1, but him playing in one of the most run-heavy offenses in Atlanta will work against him.
Verdict: I’ve been on the Darren Waller over Pitts train all offseason, so if anything, I’m now more willing to buy into Pitts than before thanks to his dip in ADP. And yet, drafting Pitts means giving up the chance to take an upside RB2 or WR3 in that ADP range, and I wouldn't be surprised if Pitts again doesn’t see enough target volume in 2023 to vault him into that elite fantasy TE tier.
Honorable mention: Chigoziem Okonkwo
- Aug 1 ADP: 138.3
- Current ADP: 152.2
The addition of DeAndre Hopkins led many to assume that Okonkwo won’t be heavily involved in the Titans’ run-first offense this season. In reality, the absurdly efficient TE made a lot of his plays on the sort of play designs that likely won’t involve Hopkins anyway, and he could see a larger target share with Treylon Burks currently banged up. As with Musgrave, don’t f*ck around and find out what it’s like to start the season with Okonkwo as your starter at TE, but he’s a worthwhile upside TE2 stash who showed as a rookie that he can make the most out of his limited target opportunities.
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