Glass half empty: 2023 was a horrific season for Panthers nation. The team finished 2-15 with the league's second-worst point differential (-180), watched C.J. Stroud vastly out-play Bryce Young, and new owner David Tepper made headlines for throwing a drink at a fan and later for confronting a local business about … a sign.

Glass half full: Things can't get much worse! A new coaching staff brings hope, and the 2024 edition of this squad should look quite a bit different after a fairly eventful offseason. A quick overview of all the Panthers' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

Kudos to the front office for making some serious moves at the line of scrimmage. Huge bags of cash were thrown at former Dolphins RG Robert Hunt (5 years, $100 million) as well as Seahawks LG Damien Lewis (4 years, $53 million)—now it's just up to the 2023 NFL Draft's No. 1 overall pick to live up to the hype.

Carolina Panthers Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

It's not hard to make some valid excuses for Young's dismal rookie season. The combination of a bottom-five supporting cast and mediocre play-calling made Carolina arguably the single least-QB-friendly offensive environment in football last season.

Young's good throws were far from guaranteed to be caught by a receiving room headlined by old man Adam Thielen, rookie Jonathan Mingo, and journeyman D.J. Chark. Overall, no offense had a higher percentage of their incomplete deep targets blamed on the receiver than the Panthers (19.4%) last season (per PFF).

There's also the fact of the matter that Young was seldom dealing with open receivers. Only the Patriots' top-three WRs had a lower average "Open Score" than the Panthers last season, as Mingo and Chark specifically posted bottom-10 marks at the position in the advanced metric meant to quantify separation ability.

Throw in mediocre RB and TE rooms alongside PFF's 27th-ranked offensive line in pass-blocking grade, and you have a recipe for a complete disaster.

WITH ALL THAT SAID: Holy hell was Young terrible last season:

Young among 31 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2023:

  • EPA per dropback: -0.178 (No. 30)
  • Completion percentage over expected: -1.4% (No. 23)
  • PFF pass grade: 52.6 (No. 30)
  • Passer rating: 73.7 (No. 31)
  • Yards per attempt: 5.5 (No. 31)

Now, there were indeed some flashes; Young also deserves credit for earning a first down on a league-high 55% of his scramble attempts. Still, it's alarming to see the No. 1 overall pick so close to guys like Tyson Bagent and Tommy DeVito when it comes to, you know, overall 2023 performance.

And now for the biggest question on everyone's mind: Can Young and company turn things around in 2024?

Well, adding Geno Smith/Baker Mayfield-fixer Dave Canales to the equation is a good start. The Panthers ranked 28th in pre-snap shift/motion (40.2%), 30th in play-action (16%), and 27th in screen rate (9.6%); there are some easy schematic fixes here that should make life a bit easier, particularly when combined with the newfound presence of Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette. Throw in the aforementioned offensive line improvements, and it's reasonable to believe this offensive environment could go from worst to something close to average in 2024.

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Jan 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) on the field in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

However, Young's middling 15.8 rushing yards per game and slender frame reflect the reality that we aren't exactly dealing with the world's most fantasy-friendly QB here. The rising second-year talent needs to flirt with high-end passing efficiency in order to overly matter in fantasy land, and he has a LONG way to go in order to accomplish that task.

Bottom line: I'm buying the idea that Young improves in a meaningful way this season—the bar couldn't be much lower, after all—but the reigning QB31 in fantasy points per game isn't someone I'm going out of my way to land in drafts, even at his dirt cheap QB25, pick 195.3 ADP. However, drafters who miss out on their preferred QBs can rally late with Young stacks—it's one of the single cheapest pass-game stacks out there at the moment.

Running Back

The rookie RB1 had surgery to repair a torn ACL back in early December. Using a basic 9-to-11-month recovery timeline would lead to a glass-half-full return in September … or potentially November if things don’t go exactly according to plan.

Bad news: Head coach Dave Canales has come out and said Brooks might not be ready for the start of training camp. Of course, being ready to participate in individual drills in August is very different from being ready to go by Week 1; it's not a given the rookie will miss game action.

As Fantasy Life Director of Analytics Dwain McFarland noted in his pre-draft rookie Super Model RB writeup: Brooks profiles as the sort of talent worth betting on in fantasy land, even if the injury requires a bit of patience on the part of 2024 drafters:

"Whether you look at Brooks’ hit rates with or without draft capital (he is the No. 20 prospect in the database), he offers the type of profile we should invest in as fantasy managers. Nothing is ever a lock, but Brooks has an excellent chance to deliver top-24 results by year two, and a visit to the top 12 is within reach. His outlook requires patience, especially in Year 1, thanks to a November ACL injury, but he could still provide fireworks by the time the fantasy playoffs arrive. 

Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine are the closest comps to Brooks in the Super Model. To unlock a top-six ceiling, Brooks must grow as a receiver or land on an elite offense with little competition for early-down work."

The real allure here is Brooks' history as a plus pass catcher. Canales' 2023 Buccaneers offense heavily featured Rachaad White in this facet of the game; it's hard for RBs to bust in fantasy land when blessed with a receiving workload that can produce 60-plus catches over the course of a single season.

However, both the Buccaneers and Panthers posted bottom-10 rankings in expected backfield PPR points per game last season. Brooks will need to absolutely dominate usage (like White) in order to overcome likely meh goal-line volume inside the league's reigning 31st-ranked scoring offense. Elite fantasy RBs also typically come from good overall teams.

Ultimately, this was the league's sixth-worst RB room in terms of raw yards per carry in 2023. Only the Cardinals, Rams, and Texans averaged fewer yards per route run as a group. The Giants (3.85) were the only RB room to average fewer yards per opportunity (carry or target) than the Panthers (3.86) last season. Neither Chuba Hubbard nor Miles Sanders profile as the sort of difference-making talent capable of siphoning too many touches away from the 2024 NFL Draft's 46th overall pick … once he's healthy enough to handle a full workload.

Bottom line: Brooks (RB22, pick 86.8 ADP) might not be ready to give your fantasy team RB1 production in September, but that's not when the fantasy playoffs happen, now is it? I do prefer Rhamondre Stevenson at essentially the same valuation, although Brooks' potential to boom over the course of the second half does make him an intriguing best ball play in zero/hero-RB builds. The rookie is especially in play in keeper formats where he'll inevitably be a value relative to 2025 ADP. Brooks is an easy top-eight rookie draft pick after the big-five WRs, Brock Bowers, and Caleb Williams. 

Hubbard is also in play as a cheap handcuff option in the late rounds; I don't hate the idea of drafting both to the same squad in order to shore up any potential early-season misses from Brooks. Normally, drafting your own RB's handcuff isn't advised due to a more limited best-case scenario, but I don't mind it when the handcuff has such an affordable RB54, pick 171.7 ADP.

Wide Receiver

Yes: Johnson is objectively a very good NFL WR. Drops have certainly occurred, but fun fact: Puka Nacua led the NFL in drops last season, and nobody cares! Because nobody should. Peep the statistic's leaderboard during any given season and you'll see a bunch of ballers who got open often enough to earn a bunch of targets that (unfortunately) led to quite a few drops along the way.

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Dec 31, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson (18) carries the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately, the one thing that Johnson does better than just about anyone: separation. ESPN Analytics' “Open Score” WR rating has done a good job of quantifying this in recent years:

  • 2023: 78 (No. 11 among all qualified WRs)
  • 2022: 99 (No. 1)
  • 2021: 87 (No. 4)
  • 2020: 92 (No. 3)
  • 2019: 91 (No. 2)

The biggest issue most had with Johnson last season was that time he didn't realize a live fumble was rolling around by his feet. Not a great moment! That said: Johnson literally scored a TD the play before that was ultimately called incomplete despite rules expert Gene Steratore believing the play should have in fact yielded six points.

While Johnson isn't necessarily guaranteed to work as the No. 1 target in Carolina ahead of soon-to-be 34-year-old WR Adam Thielen and first-rounder Xavier Legette, initial Fantasy Life projections do give the ex-Steelers talent the edge:

  • Johnson: 124 target projection
  • Thielen: 91
  • Legette: 79
  • Mingo: 48

Johnson is one of just seven WRs projected for triple-digit targets with an ADP outside the position's top-36 options. Hell, he's the only receiver projected for more than 120 targets priced outside of the top 24 WRs at the moment.

As for Thielen and Legette:

Don't confuse this as giving up on Legette before he's played an NFL snap; God only makes so many 6'1", 221-pound athletes with sub-4.4 speed after all. Canales' early vision for the rookie certainly seems promising; just realize it's asking a LOT for the league's reigning 32nd-ranked offense in total passing yards to enable more than one high-end fantasy receiver.

Bottom line: Johnson looks capable of earning WR1-worthy volume at a WR4 price tag; he's an ideal fourth or fifth option at the position on rosters looking to load up on WRs early and often. I'm also okay with throwing a late-round dart at Legette based on little else than his Round 1 draft capital, although it wouldn't be surprising if the answer to which Panthers WR we want in fantasy land winds up being, "No."

Tight End

Sanders has an underwhelming athletic profile and wound up being a day-three selection. Historically, TEs drafted outside of the top three rounds struggle to ever put forward big-time fantasy numbers, and the track record of high-end late-round rookies at the position is essentially non-existent.

Last season the Panthers (22nd) and Buccaneers (29th) ranked near the bottom of the league in total targets to the TE position. Dave Canales' lead TE Cade Otton only sniffed mid-tier TE2 treatment in fantasy land thanks to a near-every-down role, something that doesn't seem to be on the table for any of these Panthers TEs in 2024.

Bottom line: Expect a three-to-four-player committee here that renders all parties involved as non-viable fantasy assets. None are worthy of 2024 redraft consideration, while Sanders' lack of draft capital has me wary of taking him in rookie drafts before Round 4.

Panthers 2024 Season Prediction

The league's reigning 29th-ranked scoring defense finished only a little better in EPA allowed per play (26th), and that was with game-changing EDGE Brian Burns in town. Kudos to the team for extending stud DL Derrick Brown, but there's a LOT of turnover here at both the line of scrimmage and in the secondary for a team that only added Kentucky LB Trevin Wallace as a top-150 pick on defense in the draft.

An improvement as a whole should be expected, but I'm still taking under 5.5 wins for a roster that (again) looks a lot like one of the worst in the NFL despite the team's honest efforts to bolster Young's supporting cast.

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