Late Round Value. Cheapest No. 1 WRs in Fantasy Football.
The first few rounds of any fantasy football draft are littered with WRs who have a combination of elite talent and high projected volume playing in high-scoring offensive environments. Naturally, as drafts progress, the amount of WRs who can check all three of these boxes become more and more rare until you’re left with pure dart throws.
One question I try to ask myself when deciding what players to pick in the later rounds of drafts is: Is there a scenario where this player’s value could boom in a major way between now and the start of the season?
For RBs, this question is typically answered with more of an injury handcuff explanation, while managing to simply keep a full-time role is usually all you can ask for from QBs and TEs going outside of the top-10 rounds of most drafts.
Things can get a bit more interesting at WR due to the reality that muddled passing games depress the average draft position (ADP) of all parties involved. Embracing uncertain depth charts or pecking orders is scary because you don’t know exactly how things are going to play out…but that’s also true for every other player in drafts!
There are three offenses in particular that don’t have a single WR with an ADP inside of the top-10 rounds of drafts (top 120 overall picks) heading into 2023. Discerning who will rise to the top in these uncertain situations could provide some enticing late-round WR values.
Carolina Panthers
- Jonathan Mingo (WR62 ADP, 139.5 overall)
- Adam Thielen (WR64, 142.7)
- D.J. Chark (WR69, 157.6)
- Terrace Marshall (WR89, 210.2)
- Laviska Shenault (WR124, 215.9)
Murmurs about DeAndre Hopkins taking his talents to Carolina would further complicate things here, but for now, let's focus on the WRs currently on the Panthers' depth chart.
Mingo, Thielen, and Chark should probably be viewed as the favorites to start in three-WR sets considering that they were the hand-picked additions this offseason by the new coaching staff, although general manager Scott Fitterer was the man responsible for drafting Marshall back in 2021 and trading for Shenault in 2022.
Both Mingo and Marshall received some summer praise from head coach Frank Reich, but Thielen ($14 million) and Chark ($5 million) have the sort of guaranteed money that seemingly would go hand-in-hand with full-time roles.
Early Fantasy Life projections have the veterans leading the way:
- Thielen (85.0 targets)
- Chark (85.0)
- Mingo (74.7)
- Marshall (49.3)
Bills safety Damar Hamlin tackles Adam Thielen after a catch. Syndication Democrat And Chronicle Photo Credit: JAMIE GERMANO / USA TODAY NETWORK
Of course, Thielen, who will turn 33 years old in August, and Chark, who has played in just 15 of 34 possible games over the last two seasons, both have injury concerns even if they project for starting roles. There are also plenty of age cliff concerns for Thielen, and the grass typically isn’t greener for WRs like Chark who change teams in free agency.
Ultimately, I’m siding with either Mingo or Marshall more times than not when it comes to targeting Carolina's WRs in the double-digit rounds of 2023 drafts.
Mingo, the rookie, is regularly available after the top-18 QBs, top-45 RBs, and top-14 TEs are off the board. He has a far more clear pathway to No. 1 WR duties than similarly-priced WRs like Van Jefferson, Rashee Rice, and Alec Pierce.
As for Marshall, he's still just 23 years old and pretty much free at the end of drafts. He's particularly interesting in Round 18 for sharp best-ball drafters who are targeting him as a bring-back option to stack with Jaguars.
After all, Week 17 correlation is a helluva drug.
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Houston Texans
- Nico Collins (WR60 ADP, 131.4 overall)
- John Metchie (WR78, 181)
- Robert Woods (WR86, 205)
- Tank Dell (WR94, 212.3)
- Xavier Hutchinson (WR137, 216)
The allure for Collins comes down to the reality that he’s the incumbent leader in the clubhouse for an offense with more available targets and air yards than any other group in the league.
Collins is a rising third-year veteran who proved capable of demanding targets at a high level last season even when sharing the field alongside former No. 1 option Brandin Cooks.
There isn’t another WR on the roster with Collins’s size, as he measures at 6’4 and 215 lbs., and he sure looks like the offense’s starting X receiver.
I’m in on Collins at cost because he profiles as the favorite to lead all Texans WRs in targets this coming year. And like Mingo, who was mentioned above, Collins is usually still available after my favorite middle-to-late-round QB, RB, and TE targets are already off the board.
Things get a bit more interesting behind Collins. Woods seemingly profiles as the offense’s starting Z receiver after fetching $10 million guaranteed in free agency. Plus, he’s well-versed in this system and is a much cheaper version of Thielen, who is even older and faces similar depth chart competition.
I’m not going to pretend like I’m always thrilled to draft the artist known as Bobby Trees, but Woods stands out as a rare potential team target leader alongside guys like Mecole Hardman, Marvin Jones, and Josh Downs, and none of those WRs are even locks to even start for their respective teams in three-WR sets.
Both Metchie and Dell carry Day 2 draft capital, but it’s unclear if either will win a starting spot. Metchie is also already dealing with a strained hamstring.
As for Dell, he has size concerns at 5'8 and 165 lbs., which is somewhat ironic considering his moniker of “Tank”. It's unclear if the rookie would play a true every-down role even if he were to crack the starting lineup. I haven’t made a habit of drafting either Metchie or Dell and much prefer Woods available in the same ADP range.
New York Giants
- Isaiah Hodgins (WR76 ADP, 174.8 overall)
- Parris Campbell (WR77, 175.3)
- Jalin Hyatt (WR82, 191.8)
- Wan’Dale Robinson (WR83, 197.6)
- Darius Slayton (WR84, 202)
- Sterling Shepard (WR114, 215.9)
Hodgins wasn’t even a member of the Giants until early November last season. His former offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll, was quick to scoop him up after the Bills released the former 2020 sixth-round pick.
Two weeks later, Hodgins had an every-down role and quickly began racking up big-time fantasy performances, scoring five TDs in the team’s final seven games of the season. That included big-time 8-89-1 and 8-105-1 performances in two matchups against the Vikings.
These results weren’t fluky. Hodgins deserves credit for flashing some nuanced route-running ability for a man his size at 6’4 and 210 lbs.
Jan 15, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins (18) makes a catch against the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter of a wild card game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Of course, this is a crowded WR room that only managed to give Hodgins the opportunity he saw in 2022 because of existing injuries.
Neither Robinson nor Shepard were available down the stretch of last season, and the 2023 third-round rookie, Hyatt, offers the sort of pure field-stretching speed that is lacking elsewhere in this offense. Add in the return of Slayton and the addition of Campbell, and it’s tough to say that any Giants WR is currently locked into a full-time role for the coming year.
Further complicating matters is the likelihood the actual No. 1 pass-game option in this offense is Darren Waller, and Saquon Barkley also has the ability to be far more involved as a receiver than your typical RB. Current Fantasy Life projections do in fact have Waller projected to lead the Giants in targets in 2023 with Barkley just barely behind Robinson in projected targets.
Ultimately, this is the single-cheapest WR room in the NFL for good reason. There are four relevant outside WRs in Hodgins, Slayton, Hyatt, and Shepard, all of whom offer different-enough skill sets to make it feasible that they mostly rotate. A similar story exists where Campbell and Robinson will battle for the slot role, not to mention the possibility of guys like Jamison Crowder or Jeff Smith making some noise.
I’m more inclined to fade this entire New York WR group than the aforementioned targets with the Panthers or Texans due to the likelihood that up to six WRs could split snaps on an offense that already ranked among the league’s bottom-10 units in expected WR PPR points per game last season.
Plus, whoever emerges as the No. 1 WR in Carolina or Houston at least has a chance to lead his respective team in targets. In New York, it's entirely possible that even if someone were to emerge as the clear No. 1 WR, that player would still be just the third pass-game option behind Waller and Barkley.
When working with Danny Dimes stacks, I’m most inclined to throw darts at Hodgins and Campbell before saving a final-round selection for Shepard considering how his recovery seems to be going.
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