The ideal fantasy football RB has an elite combination of:
- Talent. The RB is personally extremely good at football.
- Workload. The offensive play-caller has no reservations about feeding his lead RB the ball like it’s 1993.
- Offensive environment. A badass offensive line and great QB helps produce anyone’s idea of a top-tier scoring offense.
Of course, the few backs who possess high levels in each of these categories are few and far between; they aren’t going to be available after the first round or two in drafts of most shapes and sizes.
One such RB serves as a pretty great exception to this rule:
Joe Mixon, Bengals
- Fantasy Life Volume Projections: 279.3 combined carries and targets (No. 10 among all RBs)
- ADP: RB15 (pick 43.1)
Talent is the potential issue here: Mixon carried bottom-eight marks in yards per carry (3.9), yard after contact per carry (2.63) and PFF's Elusive Rating (33.1). Of course, PFF’s reigning 28th-ranked offensive line didn’t exactly help matters on the ground, and Mixon earned the company’s sixth-highest receiving grade among 47 qualified backs.
Go ahead and put a question mark in the talent box, but the 27-year-old veteran firmly passes our final two tests. Only Austin Ekeler averaged more expected PPR points per game than Mixon last season, and that was with now-Broncos RB Samaje Perine taking all sorts of fantasy-friendly pass-down work.
- Ekeler (20.4 expected PPR points per game)
- Mixon (19.0)
- Christian McCaffrey (18.6)
- Saquon Barkley (17.9)
- Josh Jacobs (17.4)
Mixon has worked as the RB6 in PPR points per game in each of the past two seasons; even continued declines in overall rushing efficiency probably won’t be enough to keep him out of the position’s top-12 options thanks to his status as the primary TD scorer inside of the league’s reigning seventh-ranked scoring offense.
So why is Mixon still regularly available in Round 4 of drafts? Because of past concerns about the Bengals releasing him (Mixon took a pay cut) and the potential for the veteran to be suspended for off-the-field issues (next court date: August 14).
I won’t pretend to be a master of the U.S. legal system or know exactly how NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell feels about the situation — but if they drag their feet even a little bit: Mixon shapes up as fantasy’s most-affordable workhorse back inside of a great offense. The potential for a small suspension is arguably already baked into this price; it’d be surprising if anyone finds a way to rank Mixon outside fantasy’s top-12 backs in Week 1 and beyond.
Mixon is the only RB going outside of the top-40 picks projected to see 250-plus combined carries and targets (Najee Harris just barely missed the ADP cutoff), but there are a handful of additional RBs expected to see all sorts of volume.
The catch: personal talent level or severe offensive environment concerns. Sometimes both. But beggars can’t be choosers, and the following seven RBs pop off the page when looking at their potential workload at cost.
Dameon Pierce, Texans
- Fantasy Life Volume Projections: 270.9 combined carries and targets (No. 13 among all RBs)
- ADP: RB21 (pick 68.3)
There is real concern about ex-Bills RB Devin Singletary taking away fantasy-friendly pass-down work: Pierce graded out as PFF’s sixth-worst pass-blocking RB among 60 qualified backs, while Singletary ranked 12th.
But then again, Pierce is an absolute beast of a player. Only 2014 Marshawn Lynch forced a higher rate of missed tackles per touch over the past 10 years. This ability helped the rookie rack up 1,104 total yards and five scores in 13 games; Pierce was largely the only thing worth smiling about in the entire Texans organization last season.
The hope is that a new coaching staff and QB under center leads to an enhanced scoring season from fantasy’s reigning RB21 in PPR points per game — he’ll need these additional goal-line opportunities if a full-time pass-down down role doesn’t come to fruition.
Still, gaining access to either fantasy-friend role could be the difference between Piece entertaining as a low-end RB2 and him ascending to RB1 territory as this offense’s likely featured back; he’s priced closer to his floor than ceiling at the moment and remains a rock solid value at ADP.
Miles Sanders, Panthers
- Fantasy Life Volume Projections: 260.8 combined carries and targets (No. 14 among all RBs)
- ADP: RB19 (pick 63.2)
The “loose expectation” is that Sanders will hover around 15 carries and three to five receptions per game. Even something closer to the smaller side of that pass-game total could leave the ex-Eagles RB with a touch count starting with the number three by the end of the year.
Of course, it’s hard to not consider the offensive environment change when examining just how responsible Sanders is for his career average of 5.0 yards per carry. Dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts regularly helped open up wider rushing lanes thanks to his read option threat, while life behind PFF’s reigning No. 1 ranked offensive line has also helped matters.
Style points don’t equate to extra fantasy points; Sanders is free to pick up yards and TDs in whatever manner he sees fit. Still, a quick highlight recap of last season shows all sorts of examples of the 26-year-old back mightily benefiting from one gaping hole after another.
There’s also the problem of pass-down work. Credit to Sanders for hauling in 50 receptions as a rookie, but he’s struggled mightily in that department since, posting position-work ranks in yards per route run (0.29) and PFF receiving grade (35.5) among 47 qualified RBs in 2023.
It’s not that Sanders can’t put up big numbers as an inefficient workhorse inside of a bad offense, but he does stand out as the second-most expensive back among these seven cheap options. Personally, I feel better about betting on this sort of archetype inside of the Vikings or Rams offense as opposed to the Panthers — especially when those RBs in question are cheaper in fantasy land.
Alexander Mattison, Vikings
- Fantasy Life Volume Projections: 260.4 combined carries and targets (No. 15 among all RBs)
- ADP: RB18 (pick 58.2)
Mattison has seriously put up some big-time fantasy numbers in his limited spot starts over the years.
- Week 6, 2020: 10-26-0 rushing, 1-4-0 receiving, PPR RB47
- Week 17, 2020: 21-95-1, 3-50-1, RB4
- Week 3, 2021: 26-112-0, 6-59-0, RB7
- Week 5, 2021: 25-113-0, 7-40-1, RB6
- Week 13, 2021: 22-90-1, 3-34-0, RB8
- Week 16, 2021: 13-41-1, 3-29-0, RB13
Fast forward to 2023, and Mattison is suddenly the team’s expected three-down RB after the Vikings cut ties with longtime workhorse Dalvin Cook.
Here’s the catch: This Vikings backfield ranked just 22nd in expected PPR points per game last season in large part due to head coach Kevin O’Connell taking a page out of former mentor Sean McVay’s playbook and not featuring the RB in the passing game. Overall, the Rams and Vikings ranked 32nd and 27th in targets to the position last year.
Still, only adding a seventh-round rookie in DeWayne McBride to the equation in terms of competition adds credence to the idea that the rising fifth-year veteran should be featured to a heavy extent with Cook out of the picture — I’m fine making Mattison my No. 1 RB on teams without a player at the position after four rounds of drafting.
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Rachaad White, Buccaneers
- Fantasy Life Volume Projections: 251 combined carries and targets (No. 19 among all RBs)
- ADP: RB27 (pick 81.8)
The key bit of training camp news for White comes courtesy of ESPN’s Jenna Laine, who notes: “This year, White should get roughly 66-70% of the touches as he is currently RB1.”
Credit to White for performing quite well as a pass-catcher during his debut season: He graded out as PFF’s 14th-highest-graded receiver among 47 qualified RBs, and his average of 1.13 yards per route run ranked 24th. This ability helped him catch nine passes and post an overall RB9 finish in his only game without Leonard Fournette last season.
Just two other small problems: Late-career checkdown merchant Tom Brady is retired, and White was rather horrific rushing the football last season.
- PFF rushing grade: 65.1 (39th among 42 qualified RBs)
- Yards per carry: 3.7 (39th)
- Yards after contact per carry: 2.3 (41st)
- Elusive Rating: 31.3 (40th)
Maybe the Bucs add depth in the form of one of the remaining free agent veterans, but for now the only competition is Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Chase Edmonds, Patrick Laird and undrafted rookie Sean Tucker, who likely would have been selected if not for medical concerns for what it’s worth.
Only the Cardinals (16.7) are implied to score fewer points per game than the Buccaneers (18.1) in 2023; this offense isn’t just bad, it’s horrific. The RB position has indeed done a better job keeping on keeping on in fantasy land on bad offenses, but White remains someone I’ve only been willing to draft on true zero-RB builds — his stock could crater in a hurry with a free agent addition or even if one of his (capable) backups prove capable of siphoning away even a little receiving work.
Cam Akers, Rams
- Fantasy Life Volume Projections: 247.7 combined carries and targets (No. 20 among all RBs)
- ADP: RB20 (pick 65.3)
Akers’ 2022 campaign consisted of poor early-season usage, trade rumors… and a surprising breakout during the final six weeks of the season.
- Week 13: 17-60-2 rushing, 1-0-0 receiving, 72% snaps
- Week 14: 12-42-1 rushing, 1-1-0 receiving, 42%
- Week 15: 12-65-0 rushing, 3-35-0 receiving, 76%
- Week 16: 23-118-3 rushing, 2-29-0 receiving, 75%
- Week 17: 19-123-0 rushing, 1-10-0 receiving, 78%
- Week 18: 21-104-0 rushing, 3-24-0 receiving, 100%
Overall, Akers worked as the PPR RB4 during this six-week stretch.
The 24-year-old back has had his lows over the years; just realize Akers has now demonstrated legit RB1 upside on the back of a true every-down role down the stretch of both 2020 and 2022.
Yes, fantasy managers have been burned here before and should proceed with caution.
Also yes, both of Aker’s primary competitors from last season in Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown are gone, and the only additions over the offseason were sixth-round pick Zach Evans and Royce Freeman, who was only added after Sony Michel retired.
There was a lot less certainty surrounding Akers’ chances of getting a three-down role last season due to the presence of Henderson… and he was going off the board 15 picks earlier on average. I’m not afraid to buy this mini-discount on a player who might just be this year’s middle-class version of 2022 Josh Jacobs *if* Sean McVay manages to prove that 2022’s 27th-place finish in points per game was a fluke.
James Conner, Cardinals
- Fantasy Life Volume Projections: 247.4 combined carries and targets (No. 21 among all RBs)
- ADP: RB25 (pick 80.2)
One of just six RBs to post top-12 finishes in PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022, Conner has suffered an arguably unwarranted 45 pick ADP drop compared to where he was going in 2021 drafts (RB15, pick 35).
Still not sold? Worried about Kyler Murray’s (knee) recovery and the likelihood that this is one of the league’s very worst scoring offenses?
We already got a preview of this situation in Conner’s final four games of 2022 that featured noted world-beating QBs Colt McCoy, David Blough and Trace McSorley under center in an offense that never scored 20-plus points in any of the games:
- Week 14: 15-85-1 rushing, 6-29-0 receiving, PPR RB5 (95% snaps)
- Week 15: 16-63-1, 3-28-0, RB12 (91%)
- Week 16: 15-79-1, 7-41-0, RB4 (97%)
- Week 17: 16-79-0, 3-31-0, RB15 (55% - left early with a shin injury)
I’d be a lot more concerned about the new coaching staff not handing Conner the same sort of every-down role if the team had literally added a single RB in either free agency or the draft — but they didn’t!
The cheapest RB in all of fantasy football with a legit expectation of a three-down role, Conner might as well be THE zero-RB of 2023 and profiles as the lone fantasy bright spot of the Cardinals’ likely atrocious offensive experience.
Brian Robinson, Commanders
- Fantasy Life Volume Projections: 223.7 combined carries and targets (No. 26 among all RBs)
- ADP: RB36 (pick 109.1)
Credit to Robinson for his awesome big hats finishing his debut campaign strong — it makes sense that it took a while to fully recover from a freaking gunshot wound — but we’re still talking about one of the league’s least-efficient rushers on the year.
- PFF rushing grade: 81.0 (16th among 41 qualified RB)
- Yards per carry: 3.9 (33rd)
- Yards after contact per carry: 2.7 (35th)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 15.6% (27th)
Part of the reason why Robinson’s PFF grade is superior to his per-carry metrics is due to his status as one of just nine RBs who faced eight-plus defenders in the box on at least 30% of their carries (Next-Gen Stats). The 2022 third-round pick was targeted just 12 times all season; he still only played 52% of the offense’s snaps in Week 17 with both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic sidelined last season.
The lack of receiving volume is why Robinson has a decidedly lower usage projection than the rest of our featured backs, but that’s also why his ADP is much lower as well: Robinson is fantasy football’s only RB projected to see 220-plus combined carries and targets with an ADP outside of the top-100 picks.
Also: Are we positive that the man who caught 35 passes for 296 yards and two scores during his final season at Alabama can’t contribute in the receiving game? Maybe Robinson was truly just scratching the surface of his abilities in 2022 when he, you know, was still recovering from getting shot.
I couldn’t stop drafting Antonio Gibson earlier in the offseason when available in Round 9 and 10 of drafts, but his boom in ADP has now made Robinson my most rostered Washington RB. It’s possible sixth-rounder Chris Rodriguez complicates matters on early downs; just realize the presence of a Day 3 rookie is hardly a great reason to fade a bell-cow back going outside of fantasy’s top-100 picks.
