The Bears haven't exactly had an easy go of things over the past decade. Overall, they've put together just one season above .500 since 2013, and sadly that ended with, you know, the double-doink.

While 2023's 7-10 campaign wasn't a great result on the surface, Da Bears deserve credit for winning five of their final eight games and putting one of the league's better defenses on the field down the stretch.

Of course, the main problem in the windy city remains to find something resembling a franchise QB — and holy f*cking sh*t Chicago you might finally have one. A quick overview of all the Bears' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

  • Head coach: Matt Eberflus (10-24 in 2 seasons with the Bears)
  • Offensive coordinator: Shane Waldron (62.3% pass-play rate in Seattle, 9th)
  • Offseason arrivals: WR Keenan Allen (trade), RB D'Andre Swift (3-years, $24 million), TE Gerald Everett (2-years, $12 million)
  • Offseason departures: QB Justin Fields (Steelers), QB Nathan Peterman (Saints), RB D'Onta Foreman (Browns), WR Darnell Mooney (Falcons), WR Equanimeous St. Brown (Saints), WR Trent Taylor (49ers), TE Robert Tonyan (free agent), TE Marcedes Lewis (free agent)
  • Fantasy-relevant draft picks: USC QB Caleb Williams (1.01), Washington WR Rome Odunze (1.09)
  • Reigning PFF o-line rank and returning starters: No. 19, 4 of 5

Bear Down? Bear down.

Chicago Bears Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Pretty much any advanced metric tells the same story: Williams was nothing short of elite during his three collegiate seasons.

Williams among 122 Power-5 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks 2021-23

  • PFF pass grade: 91.4 (No. 5)
  • Passer rating: 118.3 (No. 3)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 76% (No. 23)
  • Yards per attempt: 9.1 (No. 7)

*Best Cris Collinsworth impression* We got a guy here who can chuck the rock 65 yards on a dime in a clean pocket and also deliver lasers on the run to both his right and left.

And yet, it’s Williams’ joystick moves and ability to manipulate defenders in open space that is especially dynamic. Don’t confuse this with the USC product being a run-first QB, but it’s hard not to be enamored about this facet of his game when looking at how his production could translate to fantasy football land. Overall, Williams scored a ridiculous 27 rushing TDs in 37 games, regularly proving capable of making defenders of all shapes and sizes look silly in space.

Shocker: It won’t be as easy for Williams to accomplish this at the next level. Don’t expect him to put up Lamar Jackson-level rushing production, but his middling career average of 3.3 yards per carry is incredibly misleading and simply a factor of how many sacks he took (more on that in a bit).

Williams rushing production when excluding sacks

  • 2023: 74 rushes for 356 yards and 11 TDs (4.8 yards per carry)
  • 2022: 94 rushes for 624 yards and 10 TDs (6.6)

That two-year 168-980-21 rushing line is more indicative of the playmaking potential Williams has at the next level on the ground. High-volume dual-threat QBs tend to be cheat codes in fantasy land; don’t be surprised if Williams at least manages to crack the position’s top-10 performers in terms of fantasy points from purely rushing production on an annual basis early in his career.

While Williams isn't a perfect prospect — his pressure-to-sack rate wasn't good and there were times when he seemed to press and give up five-to-10 yards in exchange for the chance of ripping off a chunk play — it's still hard not to be enamored with his upside inside of this suddenly lethal-looking Bears offense. How times have changed.

Bottom line: Williams' QB11 (pick 96.4) ADP isn't cheap, but we're talking about one of the better QB prospects in recent memory joining an offense with arguably not one, not two, but three No. 1 caliber WRs. That's tough to be too down on — I'm fine with Williams at cost and believe he's the easy 1.01 in rookie superflex drafts.

Running Back

  • RB1: D'Andre Swift (RB21)
  • RB2: Khalil Herbert (RB56)
  • RB3: Roschon Johnson (RB57)

Kudos to Swift for racking up a career-high 1,263 yards in 2023, working as the Eagles’ lead back essentially all season after Kenneth Gainwell suffered a rib injury in Week 1. Of course, the tush push movement also hurt Swift’s overall counting numbers. Only Joe Mixon (7) was stopped at the 1-yard line and failed to score on the same drive more than Swift (6) last season.

The ex-Lions talent posted above-average marks in most efficiency metrics and provided an early-season spark as a pass-catcher, although there were two fairly glaring red flags:

  1. Swift was brutal at consistently picking up yards after contact. This is true in terms of raw yards after contact (2.42, 45th) and especially in terms of the percentage of carries to achieve at least two yards after contact (49%, last).
  2. The Eagles ignored him as a pass-catcher down the stretch. Largely believed to be one of the game’s better-receiving backs, Swift’s average of 3.3 receptions for 19.7 yards per game in Weeks 1-11 sunk to 1.4 catches and seven yards per game during his final seven contests.

It'd make sense if the dollar amount afforded to Swift results in larger pass-down and goal-line roles in Chicago; just realize the continued presence of a dual-threat QB might not lead to the best fantasy ceiling possible. Both the Bears (28th) under head coach Matt Eberflus and the Seahawks (27th) under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron posted bottom-six marks in terms of total RB targets over the past two seasons.

The good news is that RBs typically don’t begin to fall off in fantasy land until their late 20s; Swift should continue to be functioning at something close to 100% for the duration of his tenure in Chicago if the injury Gods can chill out a bit.

Dec 25, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back D'Andre Swift (0) reacts after a first down run against the New York Giants during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Bears ranked seventh in rushing yards before contact per carry last season; I struggle to see a great reason why Swift is going 30-plus picks after guys like James Cook and Rachaad White. Maybe rushing yards over expected gawd Khalil Herbert or 2023 fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson carve out roles, but it'd be rather shocking if Swift doesn't get FED after the Bears signed up to make him the league's seventh-highest-paid player at the position.

Bottom line: Swift is (again) a solid zero/hero-RB candidate thanks to boasting 200-plus carry and 50-plus target upside as the projected lead back in an offense tentatively not expected to suck. You could do worse than this archetype in Round 8. Give me Herbert over Johnson as a handcuff at the moment, although the REAL allure with spending a late-round pick on the former veteran is the potential for him to get traded to a team like the Cowboys or Chargers where he would have a chance to be THE running back, ya'll.

Wide Receiver

  • WR1: D.J. Moore (WR19)
  • WR2: Keenan Allen (WR31)
  • WR3: Rome Odunze (WR41)
  • WR4: Tyler Scott
  • WR5: Velus Jones

Moore's first five seasons provided some high highs but equally low lows inside one pedestrian Panthers passing attack after another.

And then 2023 happened. Despite still not exactly receiving elite QB play in the form of Justin Fields, Moore set career-high marks in virtually every counting stat including receptions (96), receiving yards (1,364) and TDs (9). The overall route tree still left a bit to be desired, but DJM's elite blend of field-stretching and yards-after-the-catch ability proved to be more than enough for him to work as the WR9 in PPR points per game on the season.

Of course, Moore achieved all that as the Bears' fairly undisputed No. 1 pass-game option. With all due respect to new Falcons WR Darnell Mooney, the insertion of both Keenan Allen and No. 9 overall pick Rome Odunze add far more target competition than what DJM has dealt with at any point of his career.

Fantasy Life projections have the following WR pecking order in terms of raw targets and PPR points:

  • Moore: 117 targets, 215.8 PPR points, WR22
  • Allen: 106 targets, 191.2 PPR points, WR33
  • Odunze: 97 targets, 167.8 PPR points, WR49

Not exactly ideal for three guys with WR18, WR30 and WR36 ADP, although each would have some serious boom upside should any of the others miss game action.

Ultimately, Allen rated out as ESPN's single-best WR at getting open last season on his way to catching a career-high 108 passes in just 13 games. The reigning WR3 (!) in PPR points per game, there wasn't much on-field evidence that a dropoff is imminent for Allen, although 32-year-old veterans don't typically make a lot of noise in fantasy land.

As for Odunze, the contested-catch maestro also boasts some tantalizing route-running chops. There's a reason why no Power 5 WR had more receiving yards than him (2,784) during the last two years; here's to hoping his offseason hamstring issue isn't still a problem by the time training camp rolls around.

Bottom line: Sadly, only one football is permitted per play in the year 2024; my money is on DJM emerging as the most productive WR of the group thanks in large part to his superior YAC and downfield ability. His potential to put together some serious boom weeks makes the Round 3 valuation fine enough, while I have a tougher time getting behind Allen and Odunze as must-draft targets due to the potential of them having a harder time making more out of less targets than they're used to seeing. Hardly stay away options — and I still very much consider Odunze a top-seven option in rookie superflex drafts — but don't bet on the 2024 Bears becoming the fourth offense since 2013 to produce three top-24 WRs in PPR points per game in the same season.

Tight End

  • TE1: Cole Kmet (TE16)
  • TE2: Gerald Everett

Kmet is still somehow just 25 years old despite already having several solid enough fantasy seasons under his belt:

  • 2020: 28 receptions-243 yards-2 TD, TE46 in PPR points per game
  • 2021: 60-612-0, TE21
  • 2022: 50-544-7, TE16
  • 2023: 73-719-6, TE9

There have even been some spectacular plays along the way! Kmet is by most accounts an above-average NFL TE, but sadly for his fantasy managers: His days of working as the Bears' clear-cut No. 1 option at the position could be coming to an end.

Yes, Everett never managed to quite take over TE rooms with the Rams, Seahawks or Chargers over the years. Also yes, he does possess the sort of high-end YAC ability that simply isn't a part of Kmet's game, and the soon-to-be 30-year-old veteran is now reunited with former Rams passing game coordinator and more recently Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.

Let's take a look at the target discrepancy between Waldron's top-two TEs over the years:

  • 2017 (Rams): Tyler Higbee (45 targets), Everett (32)
  • 2018 (Rams): Everett (50), Higbee (34)
  • 2019 (Rams): Higbee (89), Everett (60)
  • 2020 (Rams): Everett (62), Higbee (60)
  • 2021 (Seahawks): Everett (63), Will Dissly (26)
  • 2022 (Seahawks): Noah Fant (63), Dissly (38)
  • 2023 (Seahawks): Fant (43), Colby Parkinson (34)

An optimist could try to point to the 2019 season as evidence that Kmet still has a decent target ceiling, but expecting Bears TEs to combine for nearly 150 targets this season feels like wishful thinking considering the firepower they possess at WR.

I tend to agree with Fantasy Life Projections: Kmet is certainly the leader here (63 targets), but Everett (24) should be involved enough to cap the ceiling of both in fantasy land, even if the passing game as a whole is quite good.

Bottom line: Either Kmet or Everett could vie for TE1 treatment with a full-time role to themselves, but that seems unlikely to come to fruition based on Waldron's history and the decision to give Everett a two-year, $12 million contract. Kmet's likely target volume isn't high enough for him to be your first option at the position in re-draft land.

Bears 2024 Season Prediction

Optimism abounds for a Bears offense that could finally produce a 4,000-yard passer. Throw in a defense that ranked fifth in EPA allowed per play from Week 9 on last season, and you have what sure looks like a legit playoff threat on paper in Chicago.

With that said, I'm taking under 8.5 wins for what should probably still be the third-best team in the NFC North. The future is bright in Chicago, but literally betting on the Bears pulling off their second-best season of the last 12 years as Williams learns what it takes to be an NFL QB is just a bit optimistic for my liking.

More 2024 NFL Team Previews