Last season was truly one of the best performances by the Browns since the team returned to Cleveland back in 1999. They couldn't quite register their second playoff victory during that span, but their +34 point differential in the regular season marked the first time they finished in the green since 2007—and that despite the offense racking up a league-high 37 turnovers!

While the team can't exactly rely on Joe Flacco putting his Superman cape on this December, expectations are higher than ever for the NFL's single-most expensive roster in terms of active 2024 cap spending ($260 million).

Of course, plenty of changes have still occurred to said roster during the ever-long NFL offseason. A quick overview of all the Browns' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

As is the case with most NFL offenses: This group's upside is largely contingent on the level of performance they get from the man under center.

Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Watson has started just 12 football games over the past three seasons. Glass-half-full optimists can point to the ever-brutal December weather in Cleveland as well as rotator cuff and shoulder injuries as reasons why the three-time Pro Bowler hasn't managed to catch his stride with his new employer.

That said: It's tough to find a single reliable advanced metric that paints Watson as anything other than one of the NFL's worst QBs since joining the Browns.

Watson among 46 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2022-23:

  • EPA per dropback: -0.041 (No. 38)
  • Completion percentage over expected: -1.8% (No. 40)
  • PFF pass grade: 58.7 (No. 42)
  • Passer rating: 81.9 (No. 36)
  • Yards per attempt: 6.5 (tied for No. 34)

Quite the falloff for someone who trailed only Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees in EPA + CPOE composite score during the 2017 to 2020 seasons. Hell, Watson's rushing yards per game have also dropped off (31.1 vs. 26.4) relative to what we saw during the first four years of his career.

Understandably, Watson's drastic decrease in passing efficiency has had a brutal impact on his fantasy production. This hasn't always been the world's most fantasy-friendly supporting cast, but still: Sheesh.

Watson fantasy points per game by season:

  • 2017: 24.1 (QB1)
  • 2018: 20.7 (QB5)
  • 2019: 21.3 (QB2)
  • 2020: 23.1 (QB5)
  • 2022: 14.3 (QB22)
  • 2023: 14.5 (QB24)

And yet, Watson somehow remains one of just four QBs in NFL history (min. 16 starts) to average at least 20 fantasy points per game for their career.

This brings us to the primary question here: What are the chances that Watson turns things around ahead of a CRUCIAL 2024 season that could represent his last opportunity to work as the team's full-time starter? Don't get it twisted: The Browns can't realistically get out of this hideous contract without forfeiting over $60 million in dead money before 2027, but another lackluster campaign could feasibly be the last straw considering how much public ridicule this team has faced since trading for his services in the first place.

The bear and bull cases for Watson ahead of next season:

  • Bull: Watson recorded three top-10 fantasy finishes in essentially his only five full games last season. It'd make sense if his third year in Kevin Stefanski's offense, combined with an improved receiving core and better health, yields the best results yet in Cleveland.
  • Bear: One of the worst NFL QBs over the last two seasons continues to function as just that. Continued regression in rushing production leads to minimal spike weeks in an offense that ranks 28th in pass-play rate (56.5%) under Stefanski.

Bottom line: I'm still licking my wounds from drafting far too much Watson in 2023—but remember: Don't hate the player, hate the ADP, and his current QB21, pick 161 cost makes the 28-year-old signal-caller a fairly low-risk late-round bet. The top 70 WRs, top 50 RBs, and top 17 TEs are typically already off the board by the time Watson's name comes around; even 75% of his Houston production would make him a value at this price.

Running Back

Sam Sherman’s excellent PUP-candidate breakdown over at Establish The Run featured Dr. Edwin Porras stating that 10 months may be the minimum return-to-play timeline for Chubb’s specific injury, as opposed to 9 months for a clean tear.

This sentiment is echoed by other learned doctors: Chubb’s multi-ligament injury required two separate surgeries and places him in uncharted territory.

While there is some hope for a “full recovery” by Week 1, this injury could be a true issue for Chubb in the long term even if he does manage to get back to looking like 90% of his usual baller self in 2024.

Of course, many RBs would LOVE to simply be 90% as good as Chubb; just realize this could be problematic to his fantasy upside considering the Browns haven’t exactly handed him the world’s most fantasy-friendly role over the years:

Maybe Chubb does his best Adrian Peterson impression and manages to dominate like nothing happened. He did come back from another severe multi-ligament tear during his days at Georgia.

Anticipating Chubb to be ready for Week 1 doesn't seem realistic, but then again, wouldn't the Browns have done more to insure against an expected long absence than only signing Hines and Foreman to low-cost one-year deals?

The former scat back is returning from a torn ACL himself, while the latter RB was a healthy scratch for a large portion of last season despite operating in a fairly wide-open Bears backfield (with all due respect to what he accomplished with the Titans and Panthers).

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Dec 28, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford (34) runs the ball during the second half against the New York Jets at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, with or without Chubb: Ford figures to be heavily involved in this offense. The rising third-year talent proved to be a walking big play on his way to racking up 1,132 total yards and nine TDs in 2023; there's high-end handcuff upside here in addition to 1.B treatment with plenty of pass-down usage even once Chubb is back in action. The biggest concern with Ford's potential to truly take over this backfield is his boom-or-bust rushing style—no RB had a higher percentage of their carries (27%) result in a loss or no gain last season.

Bottom line: Chubb falls in plenty of drafts and is worthy of late-round consideration when available after the top 130 or so picks due to his second-half upside, let alone the (apparently real) possibility that he actually winds up being ready by Week 1. Even a likely dropoff in efficiency would be tough to overly complain about given the low cost. A similar sentiment is true for Ford. Hell, it's even tough to be too critical about Foreman (RB60, pick 195 ADP). This is currently the second-cheapest backfield in all of fantasy football despite ranking eighth in expected RB PPR points per game last season.

Wide Receiver

Cooper finally turns 30 this month despite entering the league all the way back in 2015. He's certainly aging like a fine wine, as the Browns' undisputed No. 1 WR has put up some truly solid numbers since being traded to Cleveland prior to the 2022 season:

Cooper among 77 WRs with 100-plus targets in 2022-23:

  • PFF receiving grade: 85.9 (No. 16)
  • Yards per route run: 2.18 (No. 15)
  • Yards per reception: 16.1 (No. 5)
  • Targets per route run: 22.5% (No. 23)

The results in fantasy land have accordingly been sterling: Cooper has ripped off WR17 finishes in PPR points per game during each of the last two years.

And guess what? The production has largely sustained itself just fine regardless of who has been under center. Overall, Cooper has actually averaged more receiving yards per game (77.1) in 11 contests with Watson compared to 22 games without (73.7). The associated PPR points per game are slightly lower with (14.3) than without (15); just realize the longtime stud WR is one of the more QB-friendly receivers out there thanks in large part to his ever-marvelous route-running ability.

Of course, there is a bit more target competition on the table this year in the form of ex-Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy. On one hand, Jeudy is an upgrade over the likes of Cedric Tillman and David Bell. On the other, the believed route-running savant simply hasn't been the same separator in recent seasons. Just look at his ESPN “open” scores over the past three years:

  • 2023: 60 (tied for No. 38 among qualified WRs)
  • 2022: 80 (No. 11)
  • 2021: 79 (No. 10)

His 2023 campaign was most notable for Steve Smith Sr. brutally calling him out on live television and for that one time he faked a forward pass while already downfield. Not great! (Okay, the second thing was pretty cool).

Still just 25 years of age, the former 15th overall pick shouldn't be viewed as a complete lost cause just yet, but expecting TOO high of heights as the No. 2 WR inside what will likely continue to be at least a somewhat run-heavy offense doesn't seem overly wise.

A similar sentiment is true for Elijah Moore: There were some fun times back in 2021, but we now essentially have 33 straight games of evidence that we're dealing with a mediocre WR here. Excuse me for not buying into Stefanski's current offseason propaganda when the entire Browns beat wouldn't stop gushing about Moore prior to last season.

Bottom line: Cooper is a buy for me at his affordable WR29 ADP; he offers weekly boom upside and is seemingly only as cheap as he is due to the perceived notion that having Watson under center will crater his production. I'm less willing to overly bet on Jeudy (WR60, pick 127.1 ADP) or Moore (WR91, 212.7) despite their affordable cost; it wouldn't be surprising if both finish behind Cooper AND our next subject in overall targets.

Tight End

Njoku averaged a mere 0.12 fewer PPR points per game than George Kittle last season on his way to working as the TE7. Hell, Njoku actually finished as the TE5 if we included playoff production for all players.

However, unlike Cooper, we see some worrisome splits with and without Watson under center:

  • With Watson (10 games): 5.4 targets, 3.7 receptions, 34 yards, 0.3 TDs
  • Without (21 games): 7.6 targets, 5.2 receptions, 60.1 yards, 0.33 TDs

Overall, Njoku has failed to clear 60 receiving yards with Watson at QB—something he's accomplished on nine different occasions over the past two seasons without.

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Dec 28, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku (85) runs with the ball after a catch while tackled by New York Jets safety Tony Adams (bottom) during the first half at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

What we're likely seeing here is the impact that a dual-threat QB can have on their offense's checkdown option. For most offenses, this is an RB, but in Cleveland that role has often gone to Njoku, who boasted a lowly 4.8-yard average target depth in 2023—the seventh-lowest mark among 51 TEs with at least 25 targets last season.

Consider: Flacco was the NFL's third-best QB in not letting pressures be converted into sacks (12.5%), while Watson was the 12th worst (21.1%). Flacco also wasn't credited with a single scramble attempt last season—meanwhile, Watson's 8.8% scramble rate was the sixth-highest mark among 48 qualified QBs.

Don't get it twisted: Njoku is a great talent and truly a monster with the football in his hands. Somehow still just turning 28 in July, there's little reason to believe a physical dropoff is imminent, so we shouldn't completely shut the door on a potential encore in 2024 should this passing game exceed expectations. Fantasy Life projections still have him earning a respectable 89 targets, good for the ninth-highest mark of any TE.

Bottom line: Njoku's TE10, pick 100 ADP isn't egregious, but his concerning splits with and without Watson are enough of a concern to not exactly make him a priority at this range. I prefer Dallas Goedert (TE12, 112.5) and Dalton Schultz (TE13, 126.1) at cost due to the likelihood that there's far more meat on the bone in their likely superior passing attacks.

Browns 2024 Season Prediction

Myles Garrett and the league's reigning No. 1 defense in EPA allowed per play figure to make life tough on more opponents than not regardless of whether Watson can regain his pre-2021 form. Of course, the 2022-23 Jets are a good example that even great defenses often aren't enough to fully salvage a team when accompanied with a truly piss-poor offense, something that is on the table for Stefanski's group ahead of 2024.

While a second-place schedule in the ever-competitive AFC North isn't ideal, I'm taking over 8.5 wins for a roster that looks awfully good … if they can just get decent performance under center. However, this does seem like one of the bigger toss-ups of all the win totals; I'm less confident in this projection than most in this ongoing team preview series.

More 2024 NFL Team Previews