Conference Championship Dynasty Breakout Watch. TEs to buy this offseason.

As the NFL Playoffs have progressed in recent weeks, my Dynasty Breakout Watch has shifted from a micro-level, weekly approach to a macro-level, long-term horizon. We covered veteran RBs two weeks ago and are on the heels of an in-depth veteran WR piece.

Let’s keep the same trend and focus on TEs and how dynasty managers should approach the position this offseason.

We’ve talked about this fickle position before and you know the drill: it’s feast or famine. If you have an elite option, you’re sitting real nice. You have the epitome of a “set it and forget it” player at the most shallow position in all of fantasy football.

However, if you don’t have one of those, you’re left scrambling and/or streaming the position week in and week out. With the following four players (and teams) no longer in playoff contention, there are bound to be trading windows for a handful of TEs in the weeks and months ahead. Dynasty managers, if you’re looking to shore up this position (you always should be), go kick the tires on these players and get back to me.

Jake Ferguson, TE - Cowboys

After spending the first five years of his career with the Cowboys, Dalton Schultz signed a one-year contract with the Texans. That paved the way for sophomore Jake Ferguson (#OnWisconsin) to step into the lead role for the Cowboys and their prolific offense.

It was a bit of a surprising move given how productive Schultz had been over his last three seasons. From 2020-2022, Schultz averaged:

• 93 targets
• 64 receptions
• 673 receiving yards
• 6 TDs

The Cowboys also spent a Round 2 pick on Luke Schoonmaker last spring. However, the rookie only tallied eight receptions this season.

Ferguson admirably filled the Schultz-role this season. He ran 76% of the routes and commanded a 17% target share and a 12% air yards share.

Dallas dominated the regular season by way of their No. 1 scoring offense (almost 30 points per game) and Ferguson was a key component of that. Following their bye week, the Cowboys finally ran their offense through Dak Prescott and the points came pouring in. He threw 2+ TDs in 10 of his final 11 games.

Despite their early playoff exit (#GoPackGo), Dallas seems set to run it back with HC Mike McCarthy next year. While it might not result in a deep playoff run, there’s no arguing that he provided a wealth of fantasy goodness for this offense.

Ferguson is currently the dynasty TE9. He’s locked into a steady, high-volume role on arguably the best offense in football. While he may not have overall TE1 upside, having an integral component of this offense provides fantasy/dynasty managers with access to massive, matchup-winning weeks.

Evan Engram, TE - Jaguars

From a macro-level, it was a disappointing season for the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence & Co. were supposed to take that “next step” and join the elite ranks of the AFC teams. While that didn’t pan out, Evan Engram quietly had himself a remarkable season.

He paced the position in both targets (143) and receptions (114) and finished as the No. 2 TE behind rookie Sam LaPorta. His route participation (87%) and target share (24%) are the types of marks you want in a consistent, weekly producer.

From a dynasty perspective, it’s hard to find a TE this cheap locked into a high-volume role with an above-average QB. Lawrence wasn’t able to lead his team to the playoffs this year but brighter days should be ahead for this offense.

Calvin Ridley (29), Christian Kirk (27), and Zay Jones (28) aren’t getting any younger and, while Engram is also getting up there (29), he plays a position that ages better than WRs. He’s also under contract for two more seasons so there’s confidence from the team in that regard.

As of this writing, Engram is the dynasty TE12. Not bad for a guy who’s finished inside the top-5 for two consecutive years. He may not offer the same spike-week potential as some of the other elite options, but his massive volume keeps him as safe as they come.

Michael Mayer, TE - Raiders

The Raiders selected Michael Mayer with the 35th overall pick in 2023. In each of his final two seasons at Notre Dame, he topped 65 receptions, 800 receiving yards, and seven TDs. Ian Hartitz profiled Mayer last spring and noted just how incredible his ascension was during his three years in South Bend.

Mayer earned a featured pass-game role as a true freshman and never looked back. Big-time production with improving efficiency every year for a dude who won’t turn 22 until July.

Is that something you might be interested in?

• 2022: 92.5 PFF grade, 67-809-9, 2.44 yards per route run, 31% targets per route run
• 2021: 80.6 PFF grade, 71-840-7, 1.99 yards per route run, 23% targets per route run
• 2020: 71 PFF grade, 42-450-2, 1.39 yards per route run, 18% target per route run

There’s something to be said about the Notre Dame offense lacking much high-end competition, but Mayer’s 37% Dominator score as a junior is still rather incredible, even with that context.

Mayer finished his rookie season with a very modest line of 27/304/2 on 40 targets. He wound up splitting time with veteran teammate Austin Hooper.

Let’s be honest, it’s not like Hooper was dominating his opportunities either but they essentially cannibalized each other.

Looking ahead, the Raiders could be in a position to add to their QB room ahead of the 2024 season. As of this writing, they have the 13th overall selection in the first round and could be in the mix to either draft someone or add a veteran option.

Regardless, Mayer flew so under the radar in his rookie campaign that he is valued outside of the top-12 in dynasty formats. Currently, he’s the TE13. That’s not bad for a guy who came in at No. 2 in our Rookie TE Model and dominated most of the metrics used in the model.

If you have someone like Travis Kelce (age) or T.J. Hockenson (injury) on your roster, Mayer should be a prime target who A) won’t break the bank and B) offers tantalizing upside. Keep an eye on the Raiders’ organization this offseason to get a sense of how the QB room will play out in the months ahead.

Pat Freiermuth, TE - Steelers

After a mini-breakout in 2022 that saw him haul in 63 of his 98 targets for 732 receiving yards and a pair of scores (TE8), Pat Freiermuth fell flat in his third season. Despite the Steelers clawing their way to a winning record (again), there wasn’t much to be excited about on the offensive side of the ball.

Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph combined to throw a paltry 13 TDs across 17 games. Joe Flacco threw 13 TDs in his five regular season starts.

Ouch.

When looking for players who can either breakout or rebound after a down year, it’s important to look at the team environment. From a QB play/offensive perspective, it can’t get much worse, right? Freiermuth has flashed high-end target-earning ability in his career (98 targets in 2022) but it just wasn’t meant to be this year, for many reasons.

Not to keep piling on, but this data is just too much fun. Pittsburgh had a -20 point differential this season despite going 10-7. They were 28th in points for (17.9 PPG) and 6th in points against (19.1 PPG).

The Steelers have the No. 20 pick in next year’s NFL Draft so unless they move up, or make an unorthodox selection, it looks unlikely they’ll add to their QB room via the draft. HC Mike Tomlin reportedly believes in Pickett as the starting option but welcomes competition. Fantasy managers may just have to hold their collective breath and ride out this offseason.

Currently, Freiermuth is the dynasty TE16. That’s a fine price to pay for a young TE who already has a seven-TD season (2021) and a near-100 target season (2022) under his belt. Let’s hope whoever emerges as the QB1 for Tomlin next fall can take this offense to a more productive place.