Conference Championship Rankings & Tiers. Brandon Aiyuk To The Moon.
It is time to make those tough fantasy football lineup decisions for the Conference Champion games of the NFL Playoffs.
Below, you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, team totals and spreads for every game on the slate.
Notes:
- Players are now tiered across all positions (RB, WR and TE) to help with flex decisions in larger formats. Because of this, TEs might not have a player deserving of Tier 1 compared to RBs and WRs.
- Defensive yards and TDs allowed exclude overtime play.
- All references to defensive ranks are for this week (bye Week teams excluded).
Last updated: 4:30 p.m. ET, Jan. 25. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!
Quarterback Rankings & Tiers - Conference Championship
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | KC | 24.00 | -3.5 | 22.6 |
| 2 | 2 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | DET | 29.50 | -7.5 | 19.7 |
| 3 | 3 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | BAL | 20.50 | 3.5 | 18.7 |
| 4 | 4 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | SF | 22.00 | 7.5 | 17.9 |
Running Back Rankings & Tiers - Conference Championship
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | DET | 29.50 | -7.5 | 22.6 |
| 2 | 2 | Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | BAL | 20.50 | 3.5 | 14.2 |
| 3 | 3 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | SF | 22.00 | 7.5 | 14.8 |
| 4 | 3 | David Montgomery | DET | RB | SF | 22.00 | 7.5 | 13.7 |
| 5 | 4 | Gus Edwards | BAL | RB | KC | 24.00 | -3.5 | 10.4 |
| 6 | 4 | Justice Hill | BAL | RB | KC | 24.00 | -3.5 | 6.2 |
| 7 | 5 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | RB | BAL | 20.50 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| 8 | 6 | Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | DET | 29.50 | -7.5 | 3.7 |
| 9 | 6 | Dalvin Cook | BAL | RB | KC | 24.00 | -3.5 | 2.4 |
| 10 | 7 | Jordan Mason | SF | RB | DET | 29.50 | -7.5 | 3.6 |
| 11 | 8 | Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | DET | 29.50 | -7.5 | 1.8 |
| 12 | 9 | Craig Reynolds | DET | RB | SF | 22.00 | 7.5 | 2.3 |
| 13 | 9 | Patrick Ricard | BAL | RB | KC | 24.00 | -3.5 | 0.8 |
| 14 | 9 | La'Mical Perine | KC | RB | BAL | 20.50 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
Tier 2 – Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco has been delivering RB1-level goodness since Jerick McKinnon (IR) had to eject from the co-pilot seat in Week 16. Over the last four games, Pacheco has averaged 19.3 fantasy points with 17 attempts and 3.5 targets per contest.
Pacheco has accounted for all of the RB touches inside the five-yard line in both playoff games and gets most of the two-minute work — two of the highest point-per-snap roles for RBs, historically. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has taken over the lead role in LDD situations, but those snaps aren’t worth much because RBs typically stay in to block and aren’t in the early-read progression.
The former Round 7 draft pick is a walking billboard for those who believe you shouldn’t expend high draft capital at the position. Pacheco ranks 10th in yards per carry (4.6) and has registered above-average marks in yards after contact (3.06), 10-plus-yard carries (10.7%) and missed tackles forced (18.5%).
The Ravens have allowed the fewest yards per passing attempt in the league (5.2) but have been more generous against the run, ranking 23rd (4.4). Last weekend, the Chiefs dialed up their most run-heavy game plan of the season with a minus-10% DBOE against a vulnerable Buffalo defense, which could also be the plan against Baltimore.
Pacheco romped to 97 yards and a score against Buffalo, and that sort of production isn’t out of the question against the Ravens. Six out of nine RBs to reach at least 14 attempts against Baltimore have eclipsed 100 yards, and the group averaged 94 yards.
In a low-total game (44.5) that should be close with the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites, I like Pacheco’s chances of reaching 14 attempts. I like him to go over his rushing prop of 63.5 yards at -115.
Pacheco is one of only two Tier 2 players this weekend as my No. 4 option out of all RBs, WRs and TEs.
Tier 3 – Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs has a 33% TPRR in the first two playoff games, with Kalif Raymond out of the lineup. Raymond is a player the Lions like to get the ball to around the line of scrimmage — he ranks third on the team in screen targets — and his absence appears to be a net positive for Gibbs.
Gibbs has reached four targets, four receptions and 40 receiving yards in both contests. He has accounted for 73% of the Lions’ snaps in the two-minute offense this year, a trend that has continued into the playoffs. This weekend, the Lions might need their two-minute offense more than usual as seven-point dogs to the 49ers.
The San Francisco defense has been stingy against the pass, allowing the fifth-fewest yards per attempt (5.9). However, they have been susceptible to RBs. Opposing backs have averaged 6.9 targets and 5.3 receptions per contest against the 49ers. This is partially due to them leading by four-plus points on the NFL's second-most plays (49%). However, they are also a zone-centric coverage unit, which often causes passing attacks to spread the ball around more, with TEs and RBs being the primary beneficiaries.
The lines are tight on Gibbs in the receiving department, but my projections lean to the over on his receiving yardage and reception props.
Currently, more bettors are taking the over on the yardage (-120) and leaning toward the under on receptions (-125), which is probably the right play since Gibbs could get there on two receptions.
Gibbs is my RB2 and No. 5 player overall for DFS purposes this weekend.
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Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers - Conference Championship
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | DET | 29.50 | -7.5 | 12.8 |
| 2 | 2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | SF | 22.00 | 7.5 | 17.0 |
| 3 | 3 | Rashee Rice | KC | WR | BAL | 20.50 | 3.5 | 11.4 |
| 4 | 3 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | KC | 24.00 | -3.5 | 10.1 |
| 5 | 4 | Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | DET | 29.50 | -7.5 | 13.2 |
| 6 | 4 | Josh Reynolds | DET | WR | SF | 22.00 | 7.5 | 6.9 |
| 7 | 4 | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | SF | 22.00 | 7.5 | 5.4 |
| 8 | 4 | Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | DET | 29.50 | -7.5 | 3.6 |
| 9 | 5 | Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | KC | 24.00 | -3.5 | 3.9 |
| 10 | 5 | Nelson Agholor | BAL | WR | KC | 24.00 | -3.5 | 4.9 |
| 11 | 5 | Odell Beckham Jr. | BAL | WR | KC | 24.00 | -3.5 | 6.2 |
| 12 | 5 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | WR | BAL | 20.50 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| 13 | 5 | Mecole Hardman Jr. | KC | WR | BAL | 20.50 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 14 | 5 | Justin Watson | KC | WR | BAL | 20.50 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| 15 | 5 | Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | SF | 22.00 | 7.5 | 4.7 |
| 16 | 6 | Chris Conley | SF | WR | DET | 29.50 | -7.5 | 1.2 |
| 17 | 6 | Richie James Jr. | KC | WR | BAL | 20.50 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| 18 | 6 | Ray-Ray McCloud III | SF | WR | DET | 29.50 | -7.5 | 2.0 |
| 19 | 7 | Skyy Moore | KC | WR | BAL | 20.50 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| 20 | 7 | Kadarius Toney | KC | WR | BAL | 20.50 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| 21 | 8 | Ronnie Bell | SF | WR | DET | 29.50 | -7.5 | 1.9 |
| 22 | 8 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | DET | WR | SF | 22.00 | 7.5 | 1.3 |
| 23 | 9 | Devin Duvernay | BAL | WR | KC | 24.00 | -3.5 | 0.5 |
| 24 | 9 | Antoine Green | DET | WR | SF | 22.00 | 7.5 | 0.1 |
| 25 | 9 | Justyn Ross | KC | WR | BAL | 20.50 | 3.5 | 0.8 |
Tier 1 – Brandon Aiyuk
Aiyuk had a quiet week against the Packers in the Divisional Round, with a 17% target share resulting in only 5.5 fantasy points. That shouldn’t be the case against the Lions this weekend, where everything points to a monster outing for the fourth-year WR.
The 49ers have far and above the best team total on the slate at 29 points, and the matchup indicates much of the damage should come through the air. The Lions are the No. 2 run defense in the NFL, allowing only 88 yards per contest, but they rank dead-last in yards allowed per game passing (278) and 28th in TDs (1.7).
Jan 7, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) celebrates after a play against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
Last weekend, Mike Evans destroyed the Lions' secondary with eight receptions for 147 yards and one TD. Evans has been an alpha against man coverage all year, a designation that Aiyuk also holds for the 49ers — leading the team with a 28% TPRR.
Detroit has deployed man coverage the third-most in the NFL over the last six contests. Look for Aiyuk to be very busy against a defense that has allowed the third-most points per game to opposing WRs.
Evans wasn’t the only WR to obliterate the Lions. We saw multiple high-end WRs cut through Detroit like a hot knife through butter.
- CeeDee Lamb: 13 receptions, 227 yards, 1 TD
- Justin Jefferson: 12 receptions, 192 yards, 1 TD
- Puka Nacua: 9 receptions, 181 yards, 1 TD
- Keenan Allen: 11 receptions, 175 yards, 2 TDs
- Justin Jefferson: 6 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD
While some might not consider Aiyuk on the same plane as those names, they would be wrong. He plays in an offense with the highest target competition in the NFL — which has made him a mid-range WR2 — but his talent profile screams WR1. The 25-year-old ranks No. 4 in YPRR at 2.81, behind only Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins and Jefferson.
The 49ers could be without Deebo Samuel due to a shoulder injury that knocked him out of last week’s contest and kept him out of practice Wednesday. If Samuel plays, it could be in a reduced capacity, adding fuel to a rocket ship destined for the moon. On passing plays without Samuel this year, Aiyuk leads the 49ers with a 25% target share, followed by George Kittle at 22% and Christian McCaffrey at 18%.
Give me the OVER on Aiyuk’s receiving yardage prop line of 80.5 (-120) over at DraftKings. I also love the OVER on his 100 (+150) alternate line.
Aiyuk is a SMASH play as my No. 2 player and my WR1 for the conference championships.
Tier 3 – Zay Flowers
Flowers returned from a calf injury to lead the Ravens in route participation (86%) and target share (24%) in the Divisional Round against the Texans. However, that didn’t lead to much in the fantasy box score, with a meager 8.1 fantasy points.
In the AFC Championship game, Flowers could be in for a similar fate. The Chiefs allow the second-fewest yards passing yards per game (197) and rank No. 2 in defensive passing YPA (5.3). However, opponents have had much more success on the ground where they rank 25th in rushing YPA allowed (4.5).
That combination could push the Ravens' game plan toward a run-heavy approach after watching the Bills compile 182 yards last weekend. The Ravens have been a perfectly balanced offense with a 0% DBOE, but they are the best running team in the NFL, averaging 161 yards per game.
We could also have Mark Andrews returning to action after full practices on Wednesday and Thursday. On plays without Andrews on the field, Flowers has a 22% target share, but that number dips to 19% with Andrews.
Flowers should still be one of the top targets for the Ravens, but I lean toward his under on his 4.5 reception prop. And the market tends to agree with that prop now at -160.
Flowers is still my No. 11 overall player this weekend, but that is three spots behind industry consensus.
Tight End Rankings & Tiers - Conference Championship
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | George Kittle | SF | TE | DET | 29.5 | -7.5 | 11.0 |
| 2 | 3 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | BAL | 20.5 | 3.5 | 12.2 |
| 3 | 3 | Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | SF | 22.0 | 7.5 | 11.2 |
| 4 | 4 | Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | KC | 24.0 | -3.5 | 11.2 |
| 5 | 4 | Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | KC | 24.0 | -3.5 | 5.3 |
| 6 | 6 | Noah Gray | KC | TE | BAL | 20.5 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| 7 | 7 | Zach Ertz | DET | TE | SF | 22.0 | 7.5 | 5.5 |
| 8 | 8 | Brock Wright | DET | TE | SF | 22.0 | 7.5 | 1.6 |
| 9 | 9 | Charlie Kolar | BAL | TE | KC | 24.0 | -3.5 | 1.3 |
| 10 | 9 | Charlie Woerner | SF | TE | DET | 29.5 | -7.5 | 0.3 |
| 11 | 9 | Blake Bell | KC | TE | BAL | 20.5 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| 12 | 9 | Brayden Willis | SF | TE | DET | 29.5 | -7.5 | 0.0 |
| 13 | 9 | Anthony Firkser | DET | TE | SF | 22.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 |
Reminder: I have leveled my tiers across RB, WR and TE to help with flex lineup decisions. So, getting to Tier 1 is hard — often, Tier 2 is where you will find my highest-ranked TE.
Tier 3 – George Kittle
If Kittle didn’t have to compete with so many elite weapons in San Francisco, he would be the top TE in fantasy football. He has the ability to get deep, ranking second in aDOT (10), and the juice to make plays after the catch, ranking first in yards after the catch (7.6) out of all TEs with at least 250 routes. That unique combination has unlocked the top yards per reception (16) and YPRR (2.19) marks at the position.
This weekend, the 49ers could be down one of their primary weapons in Samuel (shoulder), who didn’t practice on Wednesday. On plays without Deebo this season, Kittle has a 22% target share — a significant improvement over his 18% without Samuel.
The Lions allow the most passing yards per game (278) and cough up the fifth-most to TEs (56). Brandon Aiyuk is the alpha against man coverage, but Kittle has been solid with a 20% TPRR this year. Kittle’s 3.19 YPRR versus man ranks first for the position and outdistances second-place-finisher T.J. Hockenson (2.25) by almost a full yard per route.
Kittle is my TE1 and is my No. 7 ranked player this weekend.
