Conference Championships Matchup of the Week. Chiefs @ Ravens Breakdown.
I realize hindsight is 20/20, but we were always going to end up here, right?
Baltimore put the league on notice after dismantling the Lions back in Week 7. Then, they put any doubts in the dirt after embarrassing the 49ers and Dolphins to close out the regular season. The Ravens’ three losses (that matter) are by a touchdown or less. It’s Super Bowl or bust for them. Getting to this Sunday is just a formality.
But the Chiefs took the opposite route.
We wondered about them all season. From Kadarius Toney in Week 1 to Justin Watson in Week 16, the passing game looked stoppable. But Patrick “Fine, I’ll Do It Myself” Mahomes is unstoppable. And if this game is anything like the last time they met, we’re in for another all-time matchup.
Chiefs Conference Championship Outlook
For Kansas City, their biggest concern is the health of their offensive line.
Their All-Pro left guard likely won’t suit up on Sunday, and one of their starting guards missed practice to start the week. Mahomes was already hovering around the league-average pressure rate (35.6%), and luckily, his 10.2% pressure-to-sack ratio negated most of the offensive line’s deficiencies.
But based on last week’s game environment (and its similarity to Sunday’s), the Chiefs may have another problem.
Mahomes attempted just 23 passes against Buffalo. It’s his fewest in a single postseason contest, and he hasn’t thrown for 23 or fewer since 2020. Instead, they leaned on Isiah Pacheco. The RB who “runs like he bites people” posted the sixth-highest rushing success rate (60.0%) of any starting RB in the playoffs over the last five seasons. At 6.5 yards per tote, Buffalo had no answer for him. Unfortunately, Baltimore does.
Below is the list of RBs to hit a similar rushing success rate against the Ravens:
Nope. That’s not a typo. Austin Ekeler’s 50.0% is the closest anyone has gotten. And sure, Mike MacDonald’s unit has given up multiple 100-yard rushers. Six, actually. But four had long runs of over 20 yards. De’Von Achane picked up 45 of his 107 on one carry back in Week 17.
It’s not to say Pacheco can’t generate an explosive play. Of the primary ball carriers, Kansas City’s RB1 has the ninth-highest breakaway run rate (runs over 15 yards) per PFF. But we can’t expect them, and Baltimore only gave up ten all season. So, we should see more of a balanced attack with Mahomes taking to the air. And when he does, we know where the ball is going.
Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) runs with eh ball past Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Linval Joseph (93) in the second half of the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Even with Rashee Rice getting nicked up and playing 64.0% of the snaps (his lowest since November), the rookie and Travis Kelce combined for 10 of 23 looks from No. 15. Kelce should see more of Baltimore’s Kyle Hamilton, as the star TE is still averaging 10.5 air yards per target. Since he can run from the slot or slightly detached from the line, the Ravens’ safety will offer coverage to help limit third-down conversions.
That potentially leaves Arthur Maulet on Rice.
Maulet surrendered the 11th-most yards after the catch from the interior during the regular season. He allowed a 75.0% catch rate against the Texans (one reception didn’t happen until the fourth quarter, for context). Rice’s 1.3-yard aDOT already lends itself to setting up manageable second or third downs. If he’s matched up against one of Baltimore’s weaker defenders, the Chiefs have a shot to move the ball.
Contrast the Chiefs’ offense with Lamar and company.
Ravens Conference Championship Outlook
As a team, they tied for the highest explosive rushing rate in the divisional round, with three of their ball carriers (including Lamar) contributing to the chunk gains. Out of 32 pass-catchers with a minimum 10.0% target share, Baltimore was one of two teams with a trio of receivers in the top 15. Simply put, they’ve got options. So, it’s no surprise to see their dropback rate oscillate depending on their opponent.
OC Todd Monken has called a more “quarterbacky” game plan when the situation called for it. Per our Utilization Report, the Ravens have been more pass-heavy against the:
- Steelers, Week 5
- Lions, Week 7
- Rams, Week 14
- 49ers, Week 16
We can’t conclude more dropbacks from Lamar were because the team was trailing. They won by double digits in half of those contests. However, a couple of traits about the opposing defenses stick out.
- Steelers: 11th (Pressure Rate), 15th (Time to Pressure), 12th (Rushing Success Rate)
- Lions: 6th, 29th, 5th
- Rams: 16th, 10th, 16th
- 49ers: 5th, 9th, 17th
All four were either at or above the league average in getting pressure on the enemy QB and could mitigate rushing attacks. Since their bye, KC has ranked 13th or better in all three metrics. So, we should see more from Baltimore’s passing game. The idea of trying to outpace Mahomes on the scoreboard already lent itself to an aerial approach. But the Chiefs’ pass rush may nudge them into a more fantasy-friendly script.
But keep in mind a pass-heavy approach doesn’t mean they won’t run at all.
Josh Allen had a 100.0% success rate as a runner on his 12 carries last week. James Cook and Ty Johnson were both over 50.0%, with nearly a third of their combined totes resulting in first downs. And since Justice Hill took the primary role (34.0% of the rushing attempts; led the backfield), we can expect a similar split as Gus Edwards has operated well as the short-yardage option. However, the passing game isn’t as simple to decipher.
Let’s start with what we know.
Mark Andrews practiced in full last week and hasn’t had any setbacks. When healthy, Andrews was second on the team in targets (51) with the highest TPRR rate (21.3%). John Harbaugh might limit his route rate, but his presence should draw attention from the Chiefs’ defense and fantasy managers.
Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) runs the ball against the Houston Texans during the fourth quarter of a 2024 AFC divisional round game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
Zay Flowers has been and was the WR1 against the Texans last week. The rookie garnered 23.8% of the attempts from Jackson and over a quarter of the team’s air yards. Flowers and Rashod Bateman were the only WRs who had passes thrown their way on early downs, in obvious passing situations, and in the red zone. And Andrews’s return may impact their usage. But that may not be the case for the team’s TE1B.
Isaiah Likely instantly became a part of the Ravens’ offense after Andrews went on IR. The sophomore TE’s route rate never fell below 80.0% after Week 11. In his first game as the starter (Chargers, Week 12), he came out with a 20.0% target share. But the more important component of his utilization is his air yards.
Likely has seen over 20.0% of the team’s air yards in three of his last four games, including last week’s contest against the Texans. At 11.7 air yards per target last week and 12.8 against the 49ers, Likely is the only Ravens TE with multiple games primarily working in the intermediate parts of the field. He’s not Andrews’s backup and won't instantly fade into the background now. Likely is part of the offense.
The thought was that the Ravens were saving Odell Beckham for the playoffs. But a 38.9% route rate and a lone target in the first half when the game was still competitive doesn’t align with that idea. Baltimore can disguise running plays with 2-TE sets and get Andrews and Likely out on routes. With the Chiefs allowing the tenth-highest EPA per play to TEs, Likely will be the receiver to watch from the Ravens.
