Year 1 of the Sean Payton experience certainly had its ups and downs.

On the one hand, the team went just 8-9 and finished with the AFC's fourth-worst overall point differential (-56). Lowlights included one of the more embarrassing losses in recent memory to the Dolphins (70-20!) as well as dropping three of their final four games after benching starting QB Russell Wilson seemingly more due to contract concerns than anything else.

On the other hand, at one point this team peeled off five consecutive wins over the Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Vikings and Browns. What looked like one of the league's single-worst teams after a month and a half of action wound up feigning competitiveness more weeks than not down the stretch.

Fast forward to the present day, and suddenly this roster looks quite a bit different — perhaps in a good way! A quick overview of the Broncos' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

Losing starting C Lloyd Cushenberry isn't ideal, but returning the bulk of last season's top-10 group should still provide a plus unit up front for the team's shiny new rookie QB.

Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Nix didn't overly resemble a future first-round pick during his time at Auburn, but pretty much nobody at the position was more efficient during his final two collegiate seasons at Oregon.

Nix among 89 Power Five QBs with 300-plus dropbacks 2022-23:

  • PFF pass grade: 91.3 (tied for No. 2)
  • Passer rating: 126.1 (No. 1)
  • Yards per attempt: 9.2 (No. 7)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 84% (No. 1)

Overall, no Power 5 QB scored more total TDs than Nix (94) over the last two seasons. Hell, Caleb Williams (93) was the only other signal-caller within 15 scores of him!

The primary concern is that Nix played in one of the cozier offensive environments in all of college football. His 7.1-yard average target depth ranked 86th among 89 qualified Power 5 QBs over the past two seasons, and his 2.52-second average time to throw was tied for 77th. Nearly 30 percent of his passes were thrown behind the line of scrimmage in 2023.

Nix did what he was supposed to do inside an elite offense: He supplied elite production. Still, there’s a reason why we value Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen over guys like Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa when it comes to ranking QBs. There’s nothing wrong with being a system QB, but that system better be damn good if it’s going to return high-end results in fantasy land.

May 23, 2024; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) during organized team activities at Centura Health Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Additionally, relatively elderly QB prospects generally haven't worked out too well over the years. Nobody should be writing off Nix's pro potential before he's taken a single snap in the league, but there are reasons why he was the sixth QB taken off the board last April.

The allure of Nix comes down to the likelihood that he'll start 17 games with good health. The man’s ability to limit sacks (six total in all of 2023!) is one of the best features of Nix’s game. It’s also good to see his 7.3 fantasy points per game from purely rushing production over the past two seasons stack up so favorably with someone like Caleb Williams (8.6).

We shouldn't rule out the potential for Nix to function as a fairly fantasy-friendly QB from day one. After all, Desmond Ridder had five top-12 fantasy finishes last season despite, you know, being a shitty real-life QB.

Nix's dirt-cheap cost and recent history of LATE-round QBs providing some semblance of fantasy upside got me thinking: What positions historically have offered the most BOOM upside in the final few rounds of drafts?

Answer: Definitely QB and TE. While the results are a bit skewed by the denominators at hand, the percentage of top-12 weeks by fantasy draft round heavily favors QB and TE when looking at players picked outside of the top-12 rounds (145 or higher overall ADP) from 2021-23:

  • QB: 44% of all top-12 finishes from players selected outside top-145 picks
  • RB: 22%
  • WR: 26%
  • TE: 55%

Bottom line: Nix's standing as the QB30 (pick 207.1) in early ADP is probably too cheap for any signal-caller expected to start for the entire season with good health. This doesn't mean you should be entering drafts with the intention of leaving with Nix as your QB1; just realize the position in general lends itself to more upside in the later rounds than most. Don't be afraid to target Nix and a few of his pass-catchers if you get sniped while building a stack in best ball land — the Broncos offer the second-cheapest QB/WR1/WR2/WR3 stack to build over at Underdog Fantasy at the moment.

Running Back

If Sean Payton's first year back in the NFL showed anything, it was that his desire to feature RBs in the passing game hasn't gone anywhere. Overall, the Broncos' league-high 144 RB targets were 30-plus more opportunities than all but three other backfields. Accordingly, the Broncos ranked fourth in expected RB PPR points per game behind only the Dolphins, 49ers and Lions.

While part of this can be attributed to Russell Wilson's late-career check-down habits (Denver ranked third in expected RB PPR points per game in 2022 after all), Nix's aforementioned low-aDOT tendencies bode well for the idea that this will again be more one of the league's more fantasy-friendly backfields.

Now for the key question: Who exactly is poised to work as this group's primary receiving back? Last year the answer wasn't exactly one person, as each of Javonte Williams (58 targets), Samaje Perine (56) and Jaleel McLaughlin (36) saw plenty of work in the passing game throughout the season.

Dec 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) celebrates his touchdown scored against the against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

That said: Offseason hype has almost solely centered around McLaughlin, who worked as the star of OTAs and minicamp. Still, this sort of non-contact environment greatly benefits an undersized — yet explosive — RB like McLaughlin; it remains to be seen if the Broncos really trust him to hold up in obvious pass-down situations because they sure didn't in 2023.

Pass-blocking snaps in 2023:

Note that in New Orleans we saw Alvin Kamara work as the offense's clear-cut No. 1 receiving back without leading the way as a pass-blocker; guys like Mark Ingram and Latavius Murray typically led the way there — but the discrepancies in pass-blocking snaps (32 vs. 35, 29 vs. 41, 23 vs. 45 from 2019 to 2021) weren't as wide as what we saw in Denver last season.

There's also the whole "none of these RBs were overly good in 2023" part of the equation:

  • Williams' -0.38 rushing yards below expectation was the eighth-lowest mark in the NFL and right alongside plodding veterans like A.J. Dillon (-0.36) and Ezekiel Elliott (-0.39).
  • Perine's rate of 0.11 missed tackles forced per rush attempt was the fourth-lowest mark among 68 RBs with at least 50 carries last season.
  • McLaughlin might have been the most explosive RB on the ground, but his average of 5.2 yards per reception ranked 45th among 47 qualified RBs.

Now, each of these RBs have had some good as well. Javonte is only two seasons removed from leading the NFL in total missed tackles forced; it'd make sense if he's more explosive in 2024 a full season removed from 2022's devastating knee injury. Perine actually led the position in yards per route run last season and offers the most proven ability in pass pro. McLaughlin trailed only Jaylen Warren and Tyaje Spears in missed tackle rate in 2023 and seemingly got better this offseason.

Oh yeah, there's also the matter of the Broncos drafting Notre Dame RB Audric Estime in the fifth round. Day-three RBs typically don't amount to all that much in the NFL, but the draft capital is certainly less important here relative to other positions, and the size (5-foot-11, 221 pounds) makes Estime an immediate threat to the offense's short-yardage/goal-line roles. This is most concerning to Williams, who ranks dead last in TD rate (18%) inside the five-yard line over the past three seasons.

Hell, undrafted free agent Blake Watson has even earned a slight Alvin Kamara comp out of Sean Payton. This group might offer a solid overall pie of fantasy upside, but the split nature and reluctance to lean on one workhorse could wind up rendering all parties involved as mediocre producers inside of a multi-back committee.

Bottom line: A trade or surprising cut could help clear things up here in a hurry; just realize initial Fantasy Life Projections paint a worrisome picture for anyone expecting there to be a clear fantasy star here. One of very few backfields without a single RB priced inside of fantasy's top-100 picks, the affordable nature of Williams (RB32, pick 110 ADP), McLaughlin (RB48, 153.2) and even Estime (RB65, 211.8) make them reasonable enough darts in zero/hero-RB builds, but don't be surprised if the answer to which Broncos RB you want to start during more weeks than not is simply: No.

Wide Receiver

Sutton's 72-1,112-6 campaign back in 2019 had him looking like a future star at the position, but he's struggled to regain that big-play ability ever since suffering a torn ACL back in 2020.

That said: The NFL's top 100 plays from last season are littered with absurd Sutton catches, as the 6-foot-4, 216-pound alpha remains one of the game's best contested catch artists. This skill helped Sutton rack up 10 TDs on just 90 targets, making Sutton fantasy football's most TD-dependent WR (32% PPR points from TDs) among the position's top 50 producers from last season. While the list of receivers with the highest contested target rates in recent years implies that many are poor at creating separation in the first place, Sutton deserves a lot of credit for earning ESPN's 10th-best "Open Rate" among all qualified WRs in 2023.

Subtracting Jerry Jeudy from the equation seemingly cements Sutton as this offense's No. 1 pass-game option more than ever, even if the veteran's longterm standing in Denver has been called into question after he skipped voluntary offseason workouts in protest of his contract situation. Still, Sutton is back into the swing of things and seemingly fully committed to being the best version of himself for the Broncos in 2024.

This begs the question: Is Sutton poised to work as one of fantasy's cheapest No. 1 WRs?

Nov 19, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) practices before the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Well, the list of players without a top-48 positional ADP, but with a triple-digit target projection, is certainly short:

It's not like there's much newfound competition here:

  • Marvin Mims flashed early in 2023, but sadly saw more deep ball targets (20-plus yards downfield) during the first four weeks of the year (6) than he did during the final 14 (5). It sounds like the second-year receiver will take Jeudy's spot in the starting lineup, but then again the 2023 second-round pick spent plenty of time rotating with the likes of Brandon Johnson and Lil'Jordan Humphrey down the stretch of last season.
  • Troy Franklin is smooth with it and someone many draft pundits believed could have been a Day 2 pick. Alas, the Oregon product wound up going 102nd overall and now reunites with his college QB. My comp: A rich man's Jalin Hyatt, as Franklin's speed makes him an immediate field-stretching threat at the next level, even if size concerns (6-foot-2, 176 pounds) could prohibit too big of a rookie season role from emerging.
  • Josh Reynolds signed a two-year, $9 million contract that includes $4.25 million guaranteed. He's the sort of progress-stopping veteran who is unlikely to provide much fantasy value in his own right but remains capable of keeping the former talents on the sideline.

Throw in the potential for guys like Tim Patrick, Johnson, Humphrey and even seventh-round rookie Devaughn Vele to at least rotate in at times inside of one of the lower-projected passing offenses in the NFL, and this doesn't exactly profile as the sort of situation that fantasy managers should be dying to get a piece of.

Bottom line: Sutton isn't someone I've made a habit of drafting in best ball land this summer, but fully realizing just how clear his path is to undisputed No. 1 alpha status has me devoted to changing that over the next two months. Otherwise, whatever. Franklin (WR77, pick 173.5 ADP) and Mims (WR79, 178.4) are fine enough late-round darts because it's pretty lame to overly hate on anyone priced outside of fantasy's top 150 options. I'll take Mims over Franklin straight up, even if the rising second-year talent still doesn't profile as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR5 inside of an offense likely to do more of the latter in year one of the Nix experience.

Tight End

This room is a bit of a mess to project. It’s cool that Payton talked about Dulcich filling the offense’s “joker” role in a similar manner as guys like Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles and Alvin Kamara last offseason, but ongoing hamstring issues wound up limiting the former third-round pick to just 32 snaps all season.

Saints OC Joe Lombardi remained optimistic about Dulcich's involvement in the offense back in January under the obvious caveat that he needs to stay healthy. Fast forward to late June … and Dulcich is still not practicing.

The never-ending absence of Dulcich has led to Payton unironically talking up third-year TE Lucas Krull. Of course, incumbent starter Adam Trautman remains the favorite to lead the group in total snaps, probably regardless of whether or not Dulcich ever gets healthy due to the veteran being more of a traditional inline option at the position.

Bottom line: Only the Dolphins (49) targeted their TEs less than the Broncos (60) last season. This doesn't profile as a situation fantasy managers should be at all going out of their way to invest in. Dulcich truthers can throw a literal last-round dart at him to feel alive, but even then: Meh.

Broncos Season Prediction

The league's reigning 27th-ranked scoring defense added Utah DE Jonah Elliss (3.76) and former Jets EDGE John Franklin-Myers to hopefully boost a pass rush that had the league's second-slowest time-to-pressure rate (2.65 seconds) last season. Throw in a secondary tentatively expected to move on from free agent S Justin Simmons, and even the greatness of Patrick Surtain might not be enough for this group to work as even an average unit in 2024.

It'd be cool if the Payton-Nix partnership leads to all sorts of aerial success, but it'd sure make sense if the rookie season is rough, and the lack of position groups that can confidently be called average on both sides of the ball is troubling to say the least. Give me under 5.5 wins for a team that certainly looks to be in contention for the league's single-worst squad ahead of 2024.

More 2024 NFL Team Previews