Divisional Round Rankings & Tiers. Sign Up For All The Mike Evans.
It is time to make those tough fantasy football lineup decisions for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.
Below, you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, team totals and spreads for every game on the slate.
Notes:
- Players are now tiered across all positions (RB, WR and TE) to help with flex decisions in larger formats. Because of this, TEs might not have a player deserving of Tier 1 compared to RBs and WRs.
- Defensive yards and TDs allowed exclude overtime play.
- All references to defensive ranks are for this week (bye Week teams excluded).
Last updated: 4:30 p.m. ET, Jan. 18. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!
Quarterback Rankings & Tiers - Divisional Round
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | HOU | 26.50 | -9.5 | 21.8 |
| 2 | 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | KC | 23.75 | -2.5 | 24.8 |
| 3 | 1 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | GB | 30.00 | -9.5 | 19.9 |
| 4 | 2 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | BUF | 21.25 | 2.5 | 18.8 |
| 5 | 2 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | TB | 27.50 | -6.5 | 17.8 |
| 6 | 2 | Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | DET | 21.00 | 6.5 | 17.4 |
| 7 | 3 | Jordan Love | GB | QB | SF | 20.50 | 9.5 | 19.7 |
| 8 | 3 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | BAL | 17.00 | 9.5 | 19.4 |
Running Back Rankings & Tiers - Divisional Round
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | GB | 30.00 | -9.5 | 22.2 |
| 2 | 2 | Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | BUF | 21.25 | 2.5 | 13.9 |
| 3 | 2 | Aaron Jones | GB | RB | SF | 20.50 | 9.5 | 12.7 |
| 4 | 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | TB | 27.50 | -6.5 | 14.6 |
| 5 | 3 | Rachaad White | TB | RB | DET | 21.00 | 6.5 | 13.8 |
| 6 | 3 | James Cook | BUF | RB | KC | 23.75 | -2.5 | 12.5 |
| 7 | 3 | Devin Singletary | HOU | RB | BAL | 17.00 | 9.5 | 9.3 |
| 8 | 3 | David Montgomery | DET | RB | TB | 27.50 | -6.5 | 14.2 |
| 9 | 4 | Gus Edwards | BAL | RB | HOU | 26.50 | -9.5 | 10.8 |
| 10 | 5 | Justice Hill | BAL | RB | HOU | 26.50 | -9.5 | 6.1 |
| 11 | 6 | Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | GB | 30.00 | -9.5 | 4.0 |
| 12 | 6 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | RB | BUF | 21.25 | 2.5 | 4.0 |
| 13 | 6 | AJ Dillon | GB | RB | SF | 20.50 | 9.5 | 7.1 |
| 14 | 7 | Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | KC | 23.75 | -2.5 | 3.5 |
| 15 | 8 | Latavius Murray | BUF | RB | KC | 23.75 | -2.5 | 4.5 |
| 16 | 8 | Dameon Pierce | HOU | RB | BAL | 17.00 | 9.5 | 5.0 |
| 17 | 8 | Dalvin Cook | BAL | RB | HOU | 26.50 | -9.5 | 2.4 |
| 18 | 8 | Patrick Taylor | GB | RB | SF | 20.50 | 9.5 | 2.1 |
| 19 | 8 | Dare Ogunbowale | HOU | RB | BAL | 17.00 | 9.5 | 0.7 |
| 20 | 9 | Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | GB | 30.00 | -9.5 | 1.9 |
| 21 | 9 | Melvin Gordon III | BAL | RB | HOU | 26.50 | -9.5 | 5.1 |
| 22 | 9 | Emanuel Wilson | GB | RB | SF | 20.50 | 9.5 | 1.9 |
| 23 | 9 | Patrick Ricard | BAL | RB | HOU | 26.50 | -9.5 | 0.8 |
Tier 1 – Christian McCaffrey
I understand none of you need me to tell you that McCaffrey is a great player. But for the most part, I haven’t written about him all season due to that. But with just eight teams on the slate, he makes the cut.
Only two players meet my Tier 1 criteria this weekend — CMC and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Both players have the utilization, team total and matchup all working in their favor.
Excluding Week 17, when CMC was injured, he has commanded 65% of the 49ers’ rushing attempts while also garnering an 80% route participation. That is a unique combination. Kyren Williams was the only other RB in the league to summit both of those mountains — putting McCaffrey in rare air.
The seventh-year RB averaged 21.9 opportunities (17 attempts and 4.9 targets) in healthy contests, the second-best mark behind Williams. If McCaffrey gets anywhere near that touch total this weekend, he could deliver a monster performance.
The Packers defense has licensed the fifth-most rushing yards per contest (128). With the 49ers favored by 9.5 points and boasting a 29.75 team total, CMC should have ample opportunities to accumulate touches, yards and TDs.
The one potential concern for McCaffrey is his calf injury. He practiced in full on Tuesday and isn’t listed on the 49ers’ injury report, which are both positives. However, the team could look to limit his workload — especially if the game isn’t competitive.
McCaffrey is my No. 1 player on the slate (duh).
Tier 2 – Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco's utilization has been elite over the last three games. With Jerick McKinnon on IR, the second-year back has a 78% attempt share and 58% route participation, thanks to taking over 94% of the two-minute offense. Over that stretch, he has averaged 22 opportunities with 17.7 attempts and 4.3 targets, leading to a healthy 19.7 points per game.
His new role puts him in the same utilization conversation as Kyren Williams (22.2) and Christian McCaffrey (21.9), and this weekend he gets the second-best matchup on the slate against the Bills.
Buffalo ranks 15th in rushing yards allowed per game (110), but that is misleading. The Bills allow the fifth-most yards per attempt (4.6) but have led by four-plus points the fourth-most (41%) — keeping teams in pass mode. Oddsmakers expect a close game this weekend in a cold and windy Buffalo, and that should lead to an opportunity for Pacheco to capitalize.
With Buffalo often playing to take away the big play, they are also vulnerable to backs in the passing game. The Bills allow the sixth-most receiving yards per game to RBs (41.2). Over the last three games, Pacheco has the third-highest target share on the Chiefs (14%).
Dec 25, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) scores a touchdown during the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Pacheco’s current receiving line is 3.5 on DraftKings per our Prop Finder, which he has eclipsed in three out of four games, and the Bills allow 4.9 receptions per contest to RBs. I have Pacheco projected for four receptions.
This game gives Pacheco a lot of outs with plus matchups on the ground and as a receiver — he is my No. 3 overall player and RB2.
Tier 3 – Rachaad White
White has dominated the Buccaneers backfield this year with a 67% rush share and 70% route participation, leading to 20.1 opportunities per game. Often, that alone is enough to push a back into the Tier 2 conversation. However, a couple of things are causing me to keep White in Tier 3 for the Divisional Round.
First, the Lions are the No. 2 run defense, allowing only 88 yards per game and the Bucs are the second-worst rushing unit at 90 yards. With the Bucs as 6.5-point underdogs and a better matchup through the air, rushing yards could be tough to come by for White.
Second, the Lions play the sixth-most man coverage in the NFL and White has a lowly 1% target share against man. The Lions will still play more zone than man, but White’s upside is diminished in the passing game. I have White projected under his 3.5-reception prop on DraftKings.
White remains a top-12 overall play this weekend and is my RB5 due to his utilization profile, but I am slightly below market consensus on his outlook.
Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers - Divisional Round
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | TB | 27.50 | -6.5 | 16.9 |
| 2 | 2 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | DET | 21.00 | 6.5 | 13.9 |
| 3 | 2 | Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | GB | 30.00 | -9.5 | 13.8 |
| 4 | 2 | Rashee Rice | KC | WR | BUF | 21.25 | 2.5 | 11.6 |
| 5 | 2 | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | GB | 30.00 | -9.5 | 13.4 |
| 6 | 3 | Nico Collins | HOU | WR | BAL | 17.00 | 9.5 | 14.8 |
| 7 | 3 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | KC | 23.75 | -2.5 | 12.7 |
| 8 | 4 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | HOU | 26.50 | -9.5 | 10.4 |
| 9 | 4 | Chris Godwin | TB | WR | DET | 21.00 | 6.5 | 9.9 |
| 10 | 4 | Jayden Reed | GB | WR | SF | 20.50 | 9.5 | 10.8 |
| 11 | 4 | Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | SF | 20.50 | 9.5 | 9.3 |
| 12 | 5 | Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | SF | 20.50 | 9.5 | 7.0 |
| 13 | 5 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | KC | 23.75 | -2.5 | 5.8 |
| 14 | 5 | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | TB | 27.50 | -6.5 | 5.5 |
| 15 | 5 | Josh Reynolds | DET | WR | TB | 27.50 | -6.5 | 6.7 |
| 16 | 5 | Odell Beckham Jr. | BAL | WR | HOU | 26.50 | -9.5 | 6.6 |
| 17 | 5 | Christian Watson | GB | WR | SF | 20.50 | 9.5 | 8.9 |
| 18 | 5 | Gabe Davis | BUF | WR | KC | 23.75 | -2.5 | 8.2 |
| 19 | 6 | John Metchie III | HOU | WR | BAL | 17.00 | 9.5 | 1.8 |
| 20 | 6 | Trey Palmer | TB | WR | DET | 21.00 | 6.5 | 5.1 |
| 21 | 6 | Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | HOU | 26.50 | -9.5 | 3.8 |
| 22 | 6 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | WR | BUF | 21.25 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| 23 | 6 | Justin Watson | KC | WR | BUF | 21.25 | 2.5 | 4.6 |
| 24 | 7 | Robert Woods | HOU | WR | BAL | 17.00 | 9.5 | 4.7 |
| 25 | 7 | Bo Melton | GB | WR | SF | 20.50 | 9.5 | 6.5 |
| 26 | 7 | Mecole Hardman | KC | WR | BUF | 21.25 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| 27 | 7 | Nelson Agholor | BAL | WR | HOU | 26.50 | -9.5 | 4.7 |
| 28 | 7 | Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | WR | BAL | 17.00 | 9.5 | 1.3 |
| 29 | 8 | Richie James | KC | WR | BUF | 21.25 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| 30 | 8 | Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | GB | 30.00 | -9.5 | 3.2 |
| 31 | 8 | David Moore | TB | WR | DET | 21.00 | 6.5 | 3.9 |
| 32 | 8 | Kadarius Toney | KC | WR | BUF | 21.25 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| 33 | 8 | Trent Sherfield | BUF | WR | KC | 23.75 | -2.5 | 1.1 |
| 34 | 8 | Steven Sims | HOU | WR | BAL | 17.00 | 9.5 | 1.4 |
| 35 | 8 | Deonte Harty | BUF | WR | KC | 23.75 | -2.5 | 1.9 |
| 36 | 9 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | DET | WR | TB | 27.50 | -6.5 | 1.4 |
| 37 | 9 | Malik Heath | GB | WR | SF | 20.50 | 9.5 | 2.0 |
| 38 | 9 | Ronnie Bell | SF | WR | GB | 30.00 | -9.5 | 1.9 |
| 39 | 9 | Deven Thompkins | TB | WR | DET | 21.00 | 6.5 | 1.7 |
| 40 | 9 | Andy Isabella | BUF | WR | KC | 23.75 | -2.5 | 0.0 |
| 41 | 9 | Justyn Ross | KC | WR | BUF | 21.25 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
Tier 1 – Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown has been on an absolute tear over the last five games, with a 31% target share and 24 fantasy points per contest. Over that span, he averages 9.6 targets and 79.6 air yards.
This weekend, he faces off against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks No. 28 against the pass, allowing 268 yards per game. The Buccaneers have been especially susceptible to slot WRs, allowing the third-most receiving yards per game at 67.8.
The Lions carry the second-highest team total (27.5), and their last-place pass defense could be enough to turn this into a shootout with Baker Mayfield & Co.
None of ARSB’s props are offering much value at the moment. Still, the Lions-Bucs game is one of my favorite single-game parlay options for the weekend. We dropped a video outlining all of the legs on here for you guys to check out.
St. Brown checks all the SMASH play boxes and is my No. 2 overall play on the slate.
Tier 2 – Mike Evans
Evans has cooled off over the last six games, averaging 11.5 fantasy points. Over that stretch, he only has one top-12 finish and two outside the top 50. After posting a 27% target share over the first 12 games, the veteran WR has fallen to 19% over the last six.
The re-emergence of Chris Godwin has been a challenge, but this weekend could be a massive get-right spot for Evans. The Lions are the No. 2 defense against the run, allowing only 88 yards per contest, but they cough up the most passing yards at 274. Look for the Bucs to turn away from their inept rushing game (3.5 YPC) to attack Detroit's weakness in the secondary.
The Lions have operated out of man coverage the sixth-most over the last six games. Evans has dominated man looks this year with a 37% target share and 2.69 YPRR. Only D.J. Moore and Davante Adams finished the season with a higher target share against man-coverage schemes.
The Detroit-Tampa Bay matchup offers the second-highest game total (48.5) and the second-closest spread (-6.5) in the Divisional Round. Great matchup. Potential shootout. Talented player.
Sign me up for all the Mike Evans this weekend – he is a SMASH play as my No. 5 player overall and my WR2.
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Tier 4 – Jayden Reed
Since Week 10, Reed has averaged 15.4 fantasy points per game, but he came up small against the Cowboys on Super Wild Card Weekend. Despite the Packers going nuclear on Dallas, Reed didn’t register a single fantasy point. Perhaps more concerning, since the return of Luke Musgrave and Christian Watson to the lineup, Reed has 13% and 14% target shares.
Last weekend, the Packers deployed their 12 personnel (two TEs), a season-high 48% of snaps — a trend we could see continue with the rookie tandem of Tucker Kraft and Musgrave. That meant fewer routes for Reed, who has operated out of the slot on 75% of routes this season.
Fortunately, Reed has overcome route participation challenges over this nine-game stretch to register seven WR2 performances. However, Reed was picking up utilization as an RB more frequently before the return of Aaron Jones, which helped offset low target share weeks.
I am lower than the industry consensus on Reed this weekend. Still, the 49ers are 9.5-point favorites, which could force his route participation upward, and the rookie is the most explosive playmaker on the Packers' offense, per analysis from our own Ian Hartitz.
Reed slots in seven spots below consensus but is still a top-20 play for me in the Divisional Round.
Tier 5 – Jameson Williams and Josh Reynolds
Khalif Raymond is trending in the wrong direction, missing practice again on Thursday. Last weekend that opened up season-high route participation for Williams and Reynolds.
Reynolds came out on top in the target department at 28% in the Wild Card round, but that could easily flip. Neither has been a strong target earner for the season, but Williams has a slight lead in TPRR at 16% versus 13% for Reynolds.
If Raymond is out, Reynolds and Williams are top-15 WR options against the Bucs' poor pass defense.
Tight End Rankings & Tiers - Divisional Round
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | BUF | 21.3 | 2.5 | 11.6 |
| 2 | 4 | George Kittle | SF | TE | GB | 30.0 | -9.5 | 10.7 |
| 3 | 4 | Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | TB | 27.5 | -6.5 | 11.2 |
| 4 | 4 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | KC | 23.8 | -2.5 | 7.6 |
| 5 | 4 | Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | BAL | 17.0 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| 6 | 5 | Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | HOU | 26.5 | -9.5 | 11.2 |
| 7 | 6 | Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | HOU | 26.5 | -9.5 | 5.0 |
| 8 | 6 | Cade Otton | TB | TE | DET | 21.0 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| 9 | 6 | Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | SF | 20.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 |
| 10 | 7 | Luke Musgrave | GB | TE | SF | 20.5 | 9.5 | 5.9 |
| 11 | 7 | Brevin Jordan | HOU | TE | BAL | 17.0 | 9.5 | 4.0 |
| 12 | 7 | Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | KC | 23.8 | -2.5 | 3.8 |
| 13 | 8 | Noah Gray | KC | TE | BUF | 21.3 | 2.5 | 3.3 |
| 14 | 9 | Brock Wright | DET | TE | TB | 27.5 | -6.5 | 1.4 |
Reminder: I have leveled my tiers across RB, WR and TE to help with flex lineup decisions. So, getting to Tier 1 is hard — often, Tier 2 is where you will find my highest-ranked TE.
Tier 5 – Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely
It is hard to know how the playing time will divide if both are active, but I have given Andrews the lead position in my rankings. While Likely has played admirably, much of his success has come from TDs. Andrews is the superior player, besting Likely in TPRR and YPRR this year.
- Andrews: 21% TPRR, 1.95 YPRR
- Likely: 13% TPRR, 1.45 YPRR
In fact, Andrews has been the best receiver for the Ravens this season, regardless of position and who is on the field. On snaps with their other two best options — Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. — he led the team with a 29% target share.
The Texans' defense allows the seventh-most receiving yards per game (258) but has improved down the stretch. Houston now grades out as the sixth-best coverage unit per PFF with a 90.0 grade. However, they have been suspect against TEs, allowing the third-most yards per game at 62.9, making this a nice matchup for the Ravens’ duo.
Andrews is currently my TE6, with Likely close behind at TE7. However, Andrews would be my TE2 if I knew he would play a full-time role, so the upside is there. Likely moves up to TE5 if Andrews is out.
