Divisonal Round Matchup of the Week. Chiefs @ Bills Breakdown.

It was hard to pick a game to write about this week.

Jordan Love’s ascension requires a second look (heck, maybe three or four) at his 2023 season and the job Matt LaFleur has done with a young roster.

Speaking of young, we’ve got a first-time QB, head coach, and play-caller going up against the (likely) two-time MVP in Baltimore. And, oh yeah, Baker Mayfield heads to Detroit to face the fighting Dan Campbells.

But this game felt right.

Regardless of the familiarity and history between the Chiefs and Bills, each team has evolved since they faced off in Week 14. Buffalo continues to adjust to injuries. Patrick Mahomes tries to find another pass-catcher he can trust (spoiler alert: there aren’t any). Either way, the football gods gave us a special Sunday night finale to the Divisional Round that sets up for another “thirteen-second” finish.

Chiefs Divisional Round Outlook

I have to hand it to Mahomes. Despite having three-quarters of a WR1 (I’ll explain in a bit) and maybe 80.0% of a TE1, No. 15 is still slinging it. From a pure-volume standpoint, he’s thrown fewer than 30 attempts in a single game just once this season. Of course, when teams pass is just as (if not more) important compared to how often their QB drops back. But Mahomes still ranks toward the top.

Kansas City is second in early-down passing rate in neutral situations. Despite the disastrous results with his receivers, at a high level, the offense hasn’t significantly changed. And his metrics bear out this general idea.

Let’s use last week as an example. It was Super Wild Card weekend, so the stakes were higher. But at the same time, it was hilariously cold at Arrowhead Stadium. However, the elements didn’t turn them into a run-first offense against the Dolphins.

• Play Volume: 62.3 (PPG in ideal conditions), 75 (in WC week)
• Pass Rate Over Expectation: 7.5%, 1.0%

However, what has changed is how far Mahomes is looking downfield. At a 6.8 passing aDOT through the regular season, he’s at a career-low. His 10.6% deep-ball rate falls behind Sam Howell’s (11.1%). But while explosives can help take the pressure off of an offense, how Mahomes has been operating may be uniquely suited to get past the Bills’ defense.

Buffalo’s run defense tightened up over the last six weeks of the regular season. Against the Chiefs, the Bills only gave up 82 yards on the ground to the combination of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, and Kadarius Toney on gadget plays. They were just outside of the top 12 in EPA per rush allowed for the rest of the regular season. And they were sixth-best in the Wild Card round.

Isiah Pacheco has a tough challenge on Sunday night. In his three games back, he ranks 19th out of 35 RBs in EPA per rush but 32nd in success rate. In English, he needs chunk gains. For example, 72 of his 130 yards against the Bengals in Week 17 came on two runs. But he’s been more involved in the passing game with McKinnon on IR (11.7% target share), so he’s still a viable option in single-slate fantasy formats. But the WRs (or WR, singular) should be our focus.

As I mentioned, Mahomes has primarily worked in the short area of the field. Coincidentally, that’s where Rashee Rice works best. The rookie receiver hasn’t averaged more than 8.0 air yards per target all season. And almost half (47.3%) of his looks have come from the slot. 

Jan 13, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) runs the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the second half of the 2024 AFC wild card game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Rice is one of six WRs with over 100 attempts thrown their way, and more than 40.0% of them coming from the inside (CeeDee Lamb, Keenan Allen, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Olave, and Adam Thielen). Hence the “three-quarters of a WR” comment from earlier. We know these other guys can win downfield, too. Even still, until Rice develops that part of his game, his 9.2 YAC per reception (third-best of any WR from the slot this season) will make him a popular option on Sunday.

Regardless, it’s just him and Travis Kelce that should be worth serious consideration. In their last game against the Bills, the duo combined for 20 of Mahomes’s attempts. Since then, Rice and Kelce have had 39 and 28 targets, respectively. The next closest (Justin Watson) has 14. Watson's emergence as the downfield option could be a unique way to approach this matchup. But fantasy managers should place any safe bets on Kansas City’s primary duo.

Bills Divisional Round Outlook

For Buffalo, it’s just all chaos. Stefon Diggs continues his campaign of satisfying the nerds by earning high target shares and hoarding most of the air yards—you know, all the stuff that looks good in the boxscore. But then he never gets into the box. 

James Cook can’t catch. (I realize this was from two weeks ago. But still. Sheesh.)

Gabe Davis is still hurt.

The TE's routes and attempts are canceling each other out.

And at the center of it all is a QB who can throw or plow his way through defenders for a score.

Like I said, chaos. And even the offense has gone through its twists and turns over the last two months. 

From Weeks 1-9 (the week before former OC Ken Dorsey got fired), the Bills ranked in the top 3 in offensive success rate (1st), EPA per play (2nd), and average yards per drive (3rd). They fell to 7th or 8th in each metric after Week 11. And since their bout against the Chiefs, we’ve seen less of Allen as a passer.  

Buffalo hasn’t had a positive dropback over expectation (DBOE) rate in over a month. Allen threw 42 times against the Chiefs and then flipped the script with just 15 attempts in the Bills’ blowout win over Dallas. But how often Allen throws the ball isn’t the confusing part. It’s when which drives the “expected” part of DBOE. 

For instance, we should expect them to throw on early downs because it’s how they operated in the early parts of the season. Instead, it’s now been more of a balanced approach.

• (Early-Down Passing Rate) Week 1-9: 60.5% (6th-highest)
• Weeks 15-18 + WC: 51.8% (15th)

This type of shift clearly benefits the running game. However, with Allen at 9.5 (!!) attempts per contest over his last six, we can’t rely on the RBs for high-end results. Even with a larger focus on the ground game, Cook grades out as a mid-range RB1 only because we’ve got fewer teams on the slate.

The team released Leonard Fournette, but Latavius Murray took 75.0% of the long down and distance snaps, and Ty Johnson earned 7.0% of the targets (an area where Cook was starting to shine). But if there’s one spot in the passing game worth taking a chance on against the Chiefs’ defense, the TEs (just one TE, really) are the only viable option.

The natural reaction to missing a WR was for Buffalo to run more plays with two TEs on the field. Their 12-personnel rate doubled from Week 18 to the Wild Card round. But even though Dawson Knox got the touchdown, Dalton Kincaid’s usage makes him the stronger option in the Divisional Round.

The rookie TE has earned more than 20.0% of Allen’s targets in three straight games. Even with Khalil Shakir creating explosives and Diggs converting tough third-down catches, Kincaid led the team with a 43.8% air-yard share. Plus, when Knox and Kincaid were on the field together, they both ran routes, but the freshman was the only TE getting looks from Allen.

Kansas City is no stranger to letting a TE slip by them for a solid fantasy outing. Hunter Henry (9-66-1) put KC’s linebackers and safeties to work, and Donald Parham tagged them 83 yards on six targets with Easton Stick at the helm. With a 60.0% interior target rate, Kincaid will already match up against softer coverage from the Chiefs. But at 12.0 air yards per look, he has a shot at being the overall TE1 for the Divisional Round.