The No. 5 spot in fantasy drafts is a good one. You’re going to get a top-tier player in the first round, and there should be some appealing options on the board in the second. There are also multiple different avenues for you to explore, so all sorts of different roster constructions are on the table.
Overall, it’s been one of my favorite draft slots so far this offseason.
Let’s dive into how I’m attacking the fifth pick in redraft formats.
Start with the Last of the “Elite” Options
There’s a pretty clear consensus among the top five picks this season. Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase should be the 1.01 and 1.02, while Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp, and Tyreek Hill should be the next three.
As the fifth person on the clock, that puts us in a really advantageous position. We don’t need to actually make a decision, but rather just scoop whatever player falls to us at No. 5.
Jonathan and Geoff made great points about McCaffrey and Kupp in the 1.03 and 1.04 write-ups respectively, so allow me to focus on Hill.
Hill finished as the No. 2 receiver in PPR points last season, trailing only the consensus top pick in Jefferson. In terms of PPR points per game, he dips from No. 2 to No. 3.
It’s true that his fantasy numbers did wane down the stretch last year. He scored 15.7 PPR points or fewer in three straight games to end the season, which was well below his season average of 20.1.
Should that be any real cause for concern? I don’t think so. Tua Tagovailoa didn’t suit up for two of those contests, and it’s clear he wasn’t the same player by the end of the season. He suffered at least two concussions last season, but when he was on the field, he displayed an excellent connection with Hill.
Through the first 16 weeks, Hill ranked second in the league with a gaudy 32.0% target share. He also finished fifth in air yards market share, and he was the clear leader among high-volume receivers in targets per route run. Basically, when Hill was on the field with Tagovailoa, he had a greater chance of being targeted than any other player in football.
Of course, we all know what Hill is capable of doing once he gets the ball in his hands:
All of our rankings experts prefer Kupp to Hill this season, and given the health questions with Tagovailoa, that seems fair. That said, I would have zero problem if you wanted to take him as early as No. 3 overall. I’m happy to scoop him up at No. 5 in any redraft league.
You can also take shots on Hill at 1.05 in best ball, thanks to Underdog Fantasy. Sign up below to get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 and start drafting today!
Josh Jacobs as Anchor RB
In the second round, I’m likely looking to grab the best available receiver. Two players that stand out to me are Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith. Olave’s ADP is right around 20 across the industry, but there’s a chance he’s already off the board. However, Smith has a good probability of being available.
Smith is the Eagles’ No. 2 receiver, but the gap between him and A.J. Brown is smaller than you think. Brown led the team with a 28.6% target share, but Smith was just slightly lower at 27.0%. That’s a very healthy target share, and it would be good enough to lead a lot of other squads.
Regardless, whatever receiver you take in the second round should be an excellent complement to Hill or Kupp.
January 1, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) runs the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during overtime at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The more exciting option is Josh Jacobs in the third round. He’s been one of the biggest bargains of the offseason, checking in with an ADP of more than 30 on Underdog and more than 34 in FFPC leagues.
That figure will likely increase as we get closer to the start of the year, but the pre-draft rankings have a tremendous impact on where players get drafted. Because Jacobs has gone in the middle to end of the third round, some people are going to be afraid to “reach” on him.
Don’t be one of those people.
Jacobs was the No. 3 running back in PPR scoring last year, trailing only McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. He turned in his most efficient season as a runner, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt, and he caught at least 53 passes for the second straight year.
The Raiders “rewarded” Jacobs by placing the franchise tag on him, and after a brief holdout, he’s expected to suit up for the team’s first game of the year.
Make no mistake about it—this is a player who would’ve been a first-round pick if not for his contract situation. I think he compares very favorably to Saquon Barkley, who is going more than a full round earlier.
Ultimately, he’s the perfect RB to anchor our squad.
Justin Fields at QB
In a one-QB league, it’s very tempting to wait as long as possible at the position. In years past, the gap between the top quarterbacks in fantasy and the bottom-end starters wasn’t massive, and you could even piece together an excellent QB season using the waiver wire.
That said, the position is changing.
Last year, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts gave fantasy players a massive advantage at the position. Lamar Jackson was nearly in that group when healthy, and this year, Fields is in a great position to join them.
What Fields did with his legs last season was remarkable. He averaged just under 95 rushing yards per game over his final 10 contests, and he averaged more than 8 yards per carry. That’s insane.
When Jackson turned in one of the greatest fantasy seasons in the history of the position, he averaged “just” 80 rushing yards per game. If Fields can keep that pace over the course of a full season, he has the potential to be extremely special.
There are also reasons to believe in improvement as a passer in his third professional season. The biggest is the acquisition of D.J. Moore, who made quite an impact with his first touch in a Bears’ uniform:
Fields is currently my No. 5 quarterback, and it should shock no one if he turns in a monster season. I’m more than happy to grab him in the fourth round.
Cement Your Receiving Corps
So far, we have two receivers, one running back, and a quarterback. That gives us a nice balanced core to build around in the middle rounds.
There are some potential exceptions, but I’m looking to cement my receiving corps over the next few rounds.
Two players that stand out in the fifth round are Diontae Johnson and Christian Kirk. Johnson—and the Steelers’ passing attack—has been one of the biggest winners of the preseason, with quarterback Kenny Pickett looking ready to make a year two leap. Kirk turned in an excellent first season in Jacksonville, and while he’ll likely lose some targets to Calvin Ridley, he should maintain enough volume to flirt with a top-25 season at the position.
Jahan Dotson is my primary target in the sixth round. That’s a little pricy for him given his current ADP, but he’s another clear riser from the preseason. Dotson and Sam Howell have looked excellent when on the field together, and Dotson is an elite route-runner:
That gives us an outstanding group of receivers, so we can shift most of our attention to running backs and a tight end to close out the draft.
Scoop Value & High-Upside Runners
As always, it’s worth noting that every draft is different. Some drafts are going to closely mirror ADP, while others will be absolutely wild. It’s worth remembering that the best plans always feature adaptability. Just because you may go into the draft thinking you want a certain start, you should always be willing to pivot if something better arises.
For example, you may not want to start your draft with two running backs in the first three rounds, but what if you can get Tony Pollard at pick 20? In that case, I’d be more than happy to pair him up with Jacobs, giving me two top-10 options at the position to pair with my first-round pick.
Nov 20, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) in action during the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
The same principle applies to the middle rounds. If someone is falling a round or two past ADP, don’t be afraid to scoop them up even if they weren’t initially in your draft plans.
The one constant in my drafts is that the late rounds are typically reserved for upside running backs. You can sprinkle players from other positions in, but no position has a greater chance of providing league-winning upside in the double-digit rounds than RB.
The ideal targets in this range are young players who might have some obstacles in front of them on the depth chart. Think guys like Kenneth Walker and Dameon Pierce from last season. Neither player started the year atop the depth chart, but they were weekly fantasy starters by the end of the year.
The other types of targets to consider are pass-catching specialists in time shares. There will be weeks where their pass-catching ability can make them viable options, and they have upside for bigger roles if there are other injuries at the position. Guys like Antonio Gibson, Samaje Perine, and Jaylen Warren fit this archetype perfectly.
Final Results
Let’s look at a possible roster from the No. 5 spot using Underdog ADP. Underdog ADP doesn’t translate perfectly to redraft leagues, but it’s still pretty useful. All of these players are going later than the pick where I selected them, so it’s a lineup that should theoretically be possible.
- Round 1 (Pick 5) – Tyreek Hill
- Round 2 (Pick 20) – DeVonta Smith
- Round 3 (Pick 29) – Josh Jacobs
- Round 4 (Pick 44) – Justin Fields
- Round 5 (Pick 53) – Diontae Johnson
- Round 6 (Pick 68) – Jahan Dotson
- Round 7 (Pick 77) – Kyle Pitts
- Round 8 (Pick 92) – Dalvin Cook
- Round 9 (Pick 101) – Antonio Gibson
- Round 10 (Pick 116) – Samaje Perine
- Round 11 (Pick 125) – Jaylen Warren
- Round 12 (Pick 140) – Marvin Mims
- Round 13 (Pick 149) – Roschon Johnson
- Round 14 (Pick 164) – Tyjae Spears
- Round 15 (Pick 173) – Tank Dell
- Round 16 (Pick 188) – Hunter Henry
I love this team. Excellent top six, tons of upside on the bench, and some solid RB2 types to start the year in Cook and Gibson. I would expect this team to contend right out of the gates and get better as the year goes on.
As usual, I included a backup TE for those who like to have multiple options at the position, but feel free to take a stab on another upside RB or WR if you prefer.
Whether you try to employ a similar strategy from the No. 5 spot or go in a completely different direction, best of luck to you in your draft!
