Congratulations, you’ve officially secured the first overall pick in your fantasy football draft, giving you the pick of the litter. You can take whoever you believe will be the best fantasy player in 2023.
After that? Things get a little more complicated.
Let’s dive into my roadmap for navigating drafting from the 1.01 slot in 2023 fantasy football drafts.
Starting with Justin Jefferson is a no-brainer
Who to grab with the first overall pick is a pretty easy decision this season. Jefferson is pretty widely considered the best skill-position player in fantasy after racking up 128 receptions for 1,809 yards and nine TDs last season. Austin Ekeler just barely edged him out in PPR scoring despite having scored nine more TDs, and Ekeler is almost certainly due for some regression.
Meanwhile, It’s not hard to imagine Jefferson having an even better season in 2023. For starters, Pro Football Focus (PFF) credited Jefferson with 11.1 expected receiving TDs last year, so he could easily see some improvement in that department this coming season.
Jan 15, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) dives for the end zone as New York Giants cornerback Adoree' Jackson (22) defends during the first quarter of a wild card game at U.S. Bank Stadium. The call on the field was a touchdown but was changed after review. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Additionally, Jefferson’s target metrics were pretty pedestrian compared to some of the league’s other top WRs. Jefferson ranked ninth in target share, and with Adam Thielen now in Carolina, he could see a further spike in targets.
Jefferson is coming off the board with an ADP of 1.01 on Underdog Fantasy, and he has an ADP of 1.02 in FFPC contests. He occupies the top spot for all four of our rankers, so clicking his name is the easiest part of the draft if you get the 1.01.
Uncertainty at the Round 2-3 turn
While your first-round selection might be pretty easy, what to do at the Round 2-3 turn is a much tougher call.
Personally, I’m hoping to land a stud RB that falls past ADP. Tony Pollard is the dream target, but with an ADP of 18.5 on Underdog, that’s not going to happen very often anymore. Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor are more realistic targets, but they also have ADPs slightly earlier than this range.
If all three of those RBs are gone by the 2.12 pick, I’d probably pivot to another position. Josh Jacobs is the next RB up in our consensus rankings, but taking him at pick No. 24 or 25 overall feels like a reach.
Taking a QB in this range might feel too early, but the nature of the QB position in fantasy has changed in recent years. Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen all put up massive statistical seasons in 2022, and there’s no reason to think that they can’t do it again.
Grabbing one of those elite QBs can give you a huge edge at the position, so it's advisable to pivot to QB here if you don’t love the RBs and WRs available. Of the trio, our rankers give a slight edge to Mahomes, but Hurts and Allen arguably provide higher ceilings due to their rushing upside.
At WR, Tee Higgins, D.K. Metcalf, and Calvin Ridley are likely to be the best options on the board. Ian Hartitz and Rob Waziak both have Higgins as their favorite option of the bunch while Dwain McFarland prefers Ridley. All three of these WRs are more high-end WR2s than true WR1s in fantasy, but any would be a solid complement to Jefferson.
Keep hammering WRs
If I miss out on one of my RB targets in the second round, I’m likely going to embrace a zero RB strategy.
Zero RB gets a lot of attention, but it’s really not as wild of a strategy as you might think. Essentially, you’re using your premium picks to build up an elite core of WRs and possibly an elite TE or QB. That allows you to focus on attacking RBs in the later rounds, where there is typically a lot of value to be found.
Think about guys like Jamaal Williams, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, and James Conner from last year. They all provided viable RB scores at minimal cost. That doesn’t even include short-term starters who provide serviceable RB2 weeks due to injuries in front of them on the depth chart.
Essentially, if the rest of your roster is superb, you can typically find enough production at RB to survive in the later rounds.
If I did pass on one of the elite QBs at the 2-3 turn, Justin Fields could also look very appealing in this spot. I’ve detailed my love affair with Fields and the Bears all offseason, as his rushing production gives him an elite floor. Adding D.J. Moore and an additional year of experience should also help his passing numbers, and it wouldn’t shock me if he became the 2023 version of Hurts.
Jan 8, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) catches a pass in front of Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Zyon McCollum (27) in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
As for the WRs, guys who might be available in this range include Drake London, Terry McLaurin, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Williams, and the aforementioned D.J. Moore. That said, all five of those players have an ADP earlier than 48.0 on Underdog.
Christian Kirk, Chris Godwin, and Diontae Johnson all have an ADP after 48.0, so they’re more likely to be available. I have no problem securing two of these WRs at the Round 4-5 turn, with Kirk having a slight edge over the other two in our rankings.
Look for value in the middle rounds
I’m always looking for value in drafts, but it's particularly important to do so during the middle rounds. Oftentimes, there’s a player that no one in your league wants to draft. Last year, that guy was Josh Jacobs. He routinely fell to the seventh round because no one liked him enough to pull the trigger.
We all know how that went.
Jacobs turned in a career year and finished third at the RB position in PPR points. That’s the definition of a league-winner.
It’s hard to pinpoint who that guy will be in each league, but keep your eyes peeled. There will likely be a player that falls a round or two past their ADP for no real reason, and those are the types of players you want to scoop up.
If no one obvious jumps off the page as a value, Darren Waller feels like a great mid-range option at TE at the Round 6-7 turn. Most fantasy players like to draft an elite TE or wait until late in drafts, so guys like Waller and T.J. Hockenson could be a bit undervalued. Waller should immediately be the No. 1 receiving option for the Giants’ passing attack, and there aren’t many TEs who have the potential to lead their respective team in receiving.
Or if you’re ready to dip your toe into the RB waters, this also seems like a great area to do so. Guys like J.K. Dobbins, Javonte Williams, and Conner all have question marks, but they each also have fantasy RB1 upside.
Grab lottery ticket RBs late
Once you get into the late stages, it’s time to start loading up on RBs. Going with a zero RB approach means that we’re going to be relatively weak at this position, so we’ll instead attack the RB position with volume.
There are plenty of strong “lottery ticket” RBs that you can hitch your wagon to in the mid-to-late rounds. Some of the best options are typically rookies. These players often have unknown roles heading into training camp or the start of the season, but they can win jobs through excellent play or an injury to the lead RB.
Jun 6, 2023; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins running back De Von Achane (28) catches the football during mandatory minicamp at the Baptist Health Training Complex. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
My favorite rookie RB to target in 2023 is De’Von Achane.
He’s going well outside the top-100 overall picks in most leagues, but the third-round pick has speed to burn. He blazed a 4.32 40-yard dash at the combine, putting him in the 99th percentile for the position. PlayerProfiler lists his top comp as Chris Johnson, which is extremely high praise.
His primary competition in the Miami backfield also consists of aging veterans Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., and the Dolphins offense is projected to once again score a lot of points. If Achane can eventually secure the lead role in Miami, he would have league-winning upside.
Other rookie RBs to consider taking some shots on include Zach Charbonnet, Tank Bigsby, Kendre Miller, and Roschon Johnson. These players were all picked in the top four rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft, so expect them to see the field in Year 1.
The two other types of RBs we should be targeting are pass-catchers in committees and high-end backups. The pass-catchers could provide some weekly appeal in PPR formats, and they would see a bump if there are any injuries at the position.
High-end backups are also worth drafting since they have the potential to become every-week fantasy starters if the lead RB were to miss time. Some upside backup RBs to target include Jerome Ford, Tyjae Spears, Gus Edwards, Zamir White, and Chase Brown.
Final Results
This is the type of team I would expect to build from the 1.01 barring any unforeseen values. All of these players have an ADP after the listed pick on Underdog, so it’s a feasible roster:
- Round 1 (Pick 1) – Justin Jefferson
- Round 2 (Pick 24) – Jalen Hurts
- Round 3 (Pick 25) – Calvin Ridley
- Round 4 (Pick 48) – Diontae Johnson
- Round 5 (Pick 49) – Chris Godwin
- Round 6 (Pick 72) – Darren Waller
- Round 7 (Pick 73) – Javonte Williams
- Round 8 (Pick 96) – Michael Thomas
- Round 9 (Pick 97) – A.J. Dillon
- Round 10 (Pick 120) – Jamaal Williams
- Round 11 (Pick 121) – Jerick McKinnon
- Round 12 (Pick 144) – Jonathan Mingo
- Round 13 (Pick 145) – Roschon Johnson
- Round 14 (Pick 168) – Kenneth Gainwell
- Round 15 (Pick 169) – Tyjae Spears
- Round 16 (Pick 192) – Mike Gesicki
I added Gesicki with the 16th round selection, but you definitely don’t need to draft a second TE if you don’t want to. That said, I would highly advise against taking a backup QB in normal 1QB redraft formats. If you’re investing an early-round pick on a QB, you’re expecting to start him every week and can find a bye week fill-in on the waiver wire later in the season.
This team obviously has some uncertainty at RB, but we’ve given ourselves plenty of lottery ticket guys who could earn larger roles as the year progresses. That said, stay active on the waiver wire and don’t be afraid to cut the guys at the end of your bench who aren’t pulling their weight.
With our top six picks, we should hopefully have a top-three QB, a top-six TE, and four excellent options in the WR and flex spots. That’s enough to hold down the fort until we can get some help at RB.
One final caveat: zero RB works far better in leagues that award some form of bonus for catching passes. Full PPR is obviously the best, but 0.5 PPR scoring is also viable. If you’re playing in a standard non-PPR format, this probably isn’t a strategy that you should be looking to employ. I don’t think there are a ton of leagues like that left in 2023, but it’s something to keep in mind.
Whatever you decide to do when drafting from the 1.01 slot this season, best of luck to you!
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