Fantasy Football Strategy. Drafting from the 1.03 in 2023.

Honestly, I’d rather pick from a later spot than the 1.03.

It’s not because I want to pass on one of the truly elite players at either of the core positions. But the first three picks feel scripted. We see the same three guys headline the start of each draft. And afterward, you get to play the waiting game to see who may or may not fall to you in the second round.

I like building my team from a later spot to build a stronger stable. Plus, I can get some insight into my leaguemates and their preferences. But if you get an early slot, don’t worry. I’ll walk you through how I’d approach a draft from the three-spot to construct a contending squad.

Process Notes

Let’s take a step back and look at the draft holistically. I’ll stick to the early rounds here as they’re the most impactful. And, no, I’m not exaggerating.

Forget the other positions and think about just the QBs drafted by Round 6—basically, everyone from Jalen Hurts (our QB1) to Trevor Lawrence (QB8). You’re less likely to find a passer with a similar floor-ceiling combo outside the early rounds. And the same goes for the other positions.

I pulled data from Underdog’s last two Best Ball Mania tournaments for a proxy on ADP and used PPR scores to build a rough picture of what most redraft leagues have looked like since 2021. Luckily, the trend is clear. Average points per game (PPG) fall each round regardless of the position.

And this is just the first six rounds! But back to discussing draft strategy.

So we shouldn’t look at players to target just because of their projected point totals. The options we passed over also have to be considered (aka opportunity cost). I’ll use an extreme example.

Let’s say you’re a Cleveland Browns fan, drafting with your buddies live at Cedar Point, you’ve got the 1.03 and took Nick Chubb. Homer pick? Sure. Little early? Definitely. But skipping over Christian McCaffrey to get your guy will cost 36.8 PPR points per our projections.

Again, it’s an extreme example, but our decisions (while exciting at the time) don’t exist in a vacuum. They affect our next pick, what our leaguemates do, and shape the league. So, with the third-overall selection in mind, let’s talk through the first round.

The First Round

As I said, the first round feels scripted. But home leagues can get wild, and one of Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase could fall to you. However, if not, let’s look at our options.

You could make a case for all three in PPR or half-PPR scoring. Before his injury, Cooper Kupp was first in target share and fourth in yards per game. Tyreek Hill was top two in yards and targets per route run despite getting passes from three QBs. However, Christian McCaffrey has the rushing and receiving workload worth a third-overall pick.

After arriving in San Francisco in Week 7, it took CMC a month to have the second-most targets on the squad. And he still excelled as a route runner and was a nightmare in the open field. All the while, McCaffrey handled 55.6% of the totes from inside the five-yard line on a team that ranked fourth in EPA per play and 14th in red-zone rushing rate. 

But taking CMC at three isn’t just about his upside. Again, it’s about the players you’re bypassing. Drafting McCaffrey should have you considering a WR in the second round to add strong options to your WR1 slot. Let’s look at your options.

Calvin Ridley should assume the WR1 role in Jacksonville. Plus, DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins are (at worst) 1B’s on their respective squads. So, from this start, you’ve got the makings of a strong roster.

Now do the exercise in reverse. 

Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Rhamondre Stevenson await you. Henry can (and has) proven to be the RB1, but the others walk into uncertain backfields in ’23. Meanwhile, McCaffrey’s direct competition remains sidelined making CMC the preferred opening selection from the 1.03.

When To Take a QB or TE

The onesie positions are my biggest temptation in the early rounds. I’ve written about late-round QBs and streaming strategies, and I love telling myself a story about how drafting Irv Smith will be fine. 

And then Travis Kelce dunks on me every year.

So, in short, I get it. I want to set and forget both positions but remember opportunity cost. We only start one QB and TE, and the good WRs and RBs are flying off the board. And if you’re at the 1.03, Kelce doesn’t stack up to the other options.

So, on the one hand, if you want to take an early TE, I’ve been targeting Mark Andrews. Andrews has posted top-10 marks in yards per route run in back-to-back seasons. He has the highest route percentage of any TE on an offense expected to operate at a faster pace. His price gap vs Kelce makes him an easy click in the second round from the 1.03. 

On the other hand, if nabbing an early passer is your jam (my preference), there’s something to consider before adding Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes to your queue.

QB scoring doesn’t decline as fast as the other positions. At least it doesn’t for the high-end options. They have mobility, a high pass rate over expectation (PROE), and top-tier efficiency as their calling cards. So if you can tell yourself a story about how any can be the overall QB1 each week, waiting allows you to build a stronger core. And I know just who’s worth the wait.

The Chargers added Quentin Johnston and have OC Kellen Moore to mastermind the offense. Moore’s designs in Dallas had Dak Prescott throwing deeper and more efficiently in critical situations last season. With Rashawn Slater back and Herbert with uncracked (less cracked?) ribs, LA’s passing game can return to their top-five offensive DVOA ranking from two seasons ago.

Regardless, between early-round QB or TE, drafters should only take one. We need to maximize our potential at RB and WR to manage the grind of a 17-week season. But it’s hard to compete without one of the top players at the onesie spots.

Balancing WRs and RBs

As I mentioned, I want to take as many swings at the core positions as possible. Even if I take a quick detour for a QB or TE, I’ll be right back to RB or WR since we have to start more each week. But it doesn’t mean we need the same amount of each.

Most platforms require at least two RBs and WRs, with others adding a third WR slot. Plus, we have a flex. So, at minimum, we’re starting three WRs a week. As a result, drafters will clamor for receivers early and “figure out” RBs later. Luckily, that’s a viable approach.

While averages drop from the first round, results level off towards the fifth round giving us another chance to look at the position. And, by ADP, there are worthwhile options.

Each profile as RB1’s on their team and half project for work in the passing game. Regardless, evaluating a player’s situation becomes critical, with fantasy expectations dwindling as the draft progresses.

You can start putting these strategies into practice from the 1.03 on Underdog Fantasy! Sign up below to get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 with promo code LIFE and start drafting today!