Dwain McFarland's 2023 QB Tiers

Ranking players by position is integral to fantasy football preparation, but grouping them into tiers is crucial to identifying the value you might be leaving in the draft room. 

For example, if you're on the clock and looking at several quarterbacks in the same tier, waiting until the next round could make sense—someone equally as worthy may be available with your next pick.

Tiers can also help group players with similar expectations based on upside and floor, which is great for finding arbitrage plays. For example, Geno Smith profiles similarly to Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence this season, but you can draft him 50 to 60 picks later.

Tier 1 – The alphas

Josh Allen | Bills

Allen is the all-time record holder for most consecutive seasons with 24-plus fantasy points per game at three.

• 2022: 26.0
• 2021: 24.6
• 2020: 25.6

That is a mark Peyton Manning reached once in his illustrious career. Aaron Rodgers has three such seasons. What Allen is doing is next level, and his archetype is the measuring stick by which we now evaluate fantasy QBs.

Allen offers the perfect blend of high-end passing and rushing upside thanks to his ability and the Bills' pass-first mentality.

No other QB posted an 85-plus PFF grade in passing and rushing categories. Allen was also the only QB to top 35 passing attempts and 7 rushing attempts per game. Kyler Murray was the only other player close with 35.5 and 6.2.

Buffalo ranked second in pass rate in close and leading game scripts last season, which helped keep his passing attempts high regardless of the score. In addition, his ability to contribute in designed rushing attempts and on scrambles also makes him an integral component of the Bills’ rushing attack.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) carries the ball in the first quarter of a Week 17 NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Monday, Jan. 2, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. Buffalo Bills At Cincinnati Bengals Jan 2 0335

Allen handled 17% of Buffalo’s designed rushing attempts (No. 4 QB) and ranked third as a scrambler, converting 9% of his dropbacks into rushing attempts. He was even more critical inside the five-yard line, accounting for 50% of the team’s rushing attempts.

When you add it all up, you get an amazingly high weekly ceiling and floor. The Bills’ signal caller delivered an astounding 11 top-five QB finishes in 2022—tied with Jalen Hurts for the most. Allen only had one finish outside of the top 12.

If there was a knock on Allen heading into the offseason, it was the Bills’ lack of a high-end No. 2 receiving option. Stefon Diggs is a legit WR1, but Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox have tertiary profiles—neither has proven to be a high-end target earner. However, after trading up above the Cowboys, Buffalo pulled the trigger on TE Dalton Kincaid, who could challenge for the No. 2 role immediately from the slot.

At age 27, Allen is in his prime and is the best bet in football to register 4,500 passing yards and 750 rushing yards with 40-plus total TDs. That will make you the QB1 in most seasons—no wonder he has three in a row.

Jalen Hurts | Eagles

No other QB with at least 10 games played averaged more fantasy points per dropback than Hurts in 2023.

Hurts developed into one of the premier dual-threat QBs in 2022, delivering top-six marks in PFF pass grade (80.6) and rush grade (84.4). The third-year QB improved his passing yards per game from 210 to 247, registering a career-high 8.0 yards per pass attempt.

The Eagles led by four-plus points more than any other team last year (53%), contributing to the fifth-lowest dropback rate in the NFL at 54%. 

While projecting a pass-heavy Eagles offense wouldn’t be prudent given the last two seasons, there is room for improvement. The average NFL team plays 24% of their snaps with a lead of four or more, which leaves room for more than 30.7 pass attempts per game for Hurts in 2023.

Of course, the Eagles could also decide to pass more this season. After all, they have one of the best receiving trios in the NFL with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. We saw Josh Allen stuck in a run-first offense early in his career before the Bills opened up the offense in his third season.

The 25-year-old signal caller ranked No. 1 in rushing attempts per game (11.1). He was the No. 2 QB in designed rushing attempts (25%)—including a 43% rate inside the five-yard line, and finished fourth in scramble rate (8%). Thanks to his broad application in the run game, Hurts is a great bet to finish in the top-three QBs in rush attempts again in 2023.

Hurts delivered a top-five finish 11 times in 15 games last year and should be in for another high-end season given his dual-threat ability and elite surrounding cast.

Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs

Mahomes finished as the top fantasy QB in 2022 despite the loss of Tyreek Hill, and he has four top-six finishes over the last five seasons.

No other QB in the history of the NFL with at least 36 games played has averaged more yards passing per game than Mahomes at 303. He had the second-best PFF pass grade (89.0) last year and averaged the second-most attempts per game (38.1). Regardless of the game script, Kansas City opted to pass far more than the NFL average:

• Leading by four-plus points: 60% (+11)
• Within three points: 69% (+10)
• Trailing by four-plus points: 74% (+6)

While Mahomes isn’t a dual-threat option, he isn’t a zero in the run game. His PFF rush grade of 84.7 was in the top five last year, and his 5.2 career yards per carry average is far above the 3.1 NFL average since 2011. In addition, Mahomes has eclipsed 350 yards on the ground in consecutive seasons.

If there is a question about Kansas City’s passing attack, it is the question marks behind Travis Kelce:

• Kadarius Toney – high-end target earner, but must stay healthy
• Skyy Moore – 2022 second-rounder, but couldn’t get on the field in 2022 despite the team's need
• Rashee Rice – 2023 second-rounder, late breakout vs. non-Power Five
• Richie James – solid slot guy for the Giants but more of a role player
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling – not a target earner
• Justin Watson – not at target earner

The 28-year-old’s ability to extend plays and create chunk yardage outside of structure gives him a chance to deliver another great passing season, but there is some risk with this unproven group of weapons. However, with Toney, Moore, and Rice, at least they have three young options with significant draft capital battling for reps.

Mahomes is a lock to finish inside the top-six quarterbacks, and if one of his young receiving options can fill in behind Kelce, he could challenge for No. 1 again.

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Tier 2 – Elite rusher *or* elite passer

Justin Fields | Bears

The former Round 1 NFL draft pick erupted last season, leading all QBs in rushing yards per game at 76.2, falling just short of Lamar Jackson’s record of 80.4 in 2019. Since 2011, Jackson has three rushing TDs of 40-plus yards—a mark Fields matched in one season.

Dec 24, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) drops back to pass against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

Fields was electric as a runner and highly integrated into the Bears' rushing attack, handling 20% of designed attempts. Only Jackson and Hurts registered a higher percentage, and Fields posted the No. 1 scramble rate at 16%. In addition, he was third in designed rushing attempts inside the five-yard line at 39%.

Hurts’s 0.71 fantasy points per dropback was the only finish higher than Fields at 0.70, which is saying a lot considering the discrepancy in the supporting cast. With the addition of D.J. Moore, Fields will have a chance to take his game to the next level in a way we saw Hurts do with A.J. Brown and Allen with Stefon Diggs.

However, Fields has a lot of work to do after finishing 30 of 31 in PFF pass grade for QBs with at least 300 dropbacks in 2022. However, his accuracy issues could be overblown–after adjusting for average depth of target (aDOT), Fields’s 60% completion rate was only one percentage point below the NFL average. 

He was at his best in the deep passing game, which bodes well for his upside, but he struggled mightily against pressure for the second consecutive season with a 29.4 grade. The NFL average is 50.7 since 2006.

Fields is a near-lock as a top-six option for 2023 thanks to his rushing prowess, and if his passing takes the next step, he could challenge for the No. 1 overall rank.

Arbitrage: Jalen Hurts

Lamar Jackson | Ravens

Since entering the league, Jackson has been an unstoppable force in the run game. No other QB in NFL history owns more top-ten finishes in rushing yards per game than Jackson, who has four in only five seasons.

In 2022, no other QB handled a more significant portion of their team’s designed rushing attempts (27%), and Jackson finished seventh in scramble rate at 7%.

Unfortunately, production in the passing game hasn’t been as strong, averaging 199 yards per game with a career-best of 240 in 2021. 

Jackson started his career hot with an 85.3 PFF pass grade but ultimately couldn’t sustain the performance. Over the last three seasons, Jackson posted grades of 76.9, 65.9, and 72.3—slightly above the NFL average of 71.9.

Jackson has struggled to handle pressure, often exacerbating the problem. He owned 34% of his pressures in 2022, per PFF—well above the NFL average of 14%. Additionally, he hasn’t responded well to disguised coverage looks, where his pass grade ranks 26 out of 34 since 2022 (min. 200 dropbacks).

Despite all of this, there is room for optimism around Jackson’s upside as a passer in 2023, thanks to the additions of Zay Flowers via the first round of the draft and Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency. 

Add a healthy Rashod Bateman (2021 first-rounder) and Mark Andrews to the equation, along with more vertical route concepts from Todd Monken, and it is easy to imagine a career passing year for Jackson, who already ranked third in points per dropback in 2022 (0.65).

Jackson has missed five games each of the last two seasons, but if healthy, he has the dual-threat ability to chop down a top-three season.

Arbitrage: Jalen Hurts

Joe Burrow | Bengals

Burrow was PFF’s No. 1 graded passer in 2022 and delivered 22.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the fourth-ranked QB in fantasy football. He was the QB8 in 2021 with almost identical points per dropback (0.56 vs. 0.54). However, the Bengals went all in on their passing game in 2022, favoring the pass more than the league average in all game scripts:

• Leading by four-plus points: 56% (+7)
• Within three points: 72% (+12)
• Trailing by four-plus points: 70% (+2)

Burrow also upped his game in the rushing department with a career-high 257 yards and 5 TDs. 

Of course, he won’t be confused for a dual threat anytime soon, but his 4.7 attempts per game ranked seventh (min 10 games), and most importantly, he accounted for 28% of the attempts inside the five-yard line. Surprisingly, he ranked sixth in designed rush attempts (12%).

With Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd back for another season, Burrow has a shot at leading the NFL in passing yards. He is an elite passer to all levels of the field and can beat NFL pressure with his arm.

Pocket passers rely heavily on spike seasons to finish in the top three ranks, which is more challenging than ever with so many high-end dual-threat options. 

Even when rushing QBs weren’t as prevalent, the all-time greats like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady dealt with year-to-year variance. Since 2006, Manning delivered 3 top-three campaigns in 8 full seasons, while Brady had 7 in 15.

Burrow’s ADP is slightly overpriced, but he is an arbitrage play on Mahomes, who goes in Round 2.

Arbitrage: Patrick Mahomes

Tier 3 – Young guns

Justin Herbert | Chargers

Herbert finished as the QB14 with 17.3 points per game last season after finishing as the QB3 (22.7) in 2021 and QB8 (22.7) in 2020. However, he had Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the field together in only four contests.

The fourth-year QB should be in for a bounce-back season in a pass-first offense now guided by Kellen Moore, who led the Cowboys' offense from 2019 to 2022. 

Dak Prescott eclipsed 21 points per game in three of four seasons with Moore, who loves to keep things up-tempo. No team averaged more plays per game in non-overtime than Dallas during Moore’s tenure, with 66.9 plays per game.

Jan 14, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) and wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) celebrate after a play during the second quarter a wild card game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Chargers also added juice to their receiving corps in Round 1 of the NFL draft by selecting Quentin Johnston. No other WR in the class offers the unique blend of downfield prowess and run-after-the-catch ability that Johnston has. He should immediately challenge for the No. 3 role. 

If Willams and Allen are healthy, the Chargers could boast an elite aerial assault, with Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett, and Josh Palmer also contributing.

Herbert took a step back in the rushing department with only 144 yards and zero TDs, but was playing through a rib injury he suffered in Week 2 against the Chiefs. This season we could see something closer to 275 yards and three rushing scores from 2021.

In summary, we have a proven young star surrounded by great talent in an offense that should pass often—Herbert has a lot to like in 2023.

Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars

The former No. 1 overall draft pick made significant strides in Year 2.

Most of Lawrence’s improvement came from a clean pocket where his PFF pass grade jumped from 69.6 to 90.1. However, pressure remained problematic for the young signal caller. He followed up his 38.8 rookie-season grade with a 32.9—far below the 50.7 NFL average.

While Lawrence still has things to clean up, it is hard not to get excited about what the Jaguars are doing on offense. The offense might not have an alpha target earner, but they have an abundance of quality options.

• WR – Christian Kirk (21% target share)
• WR – Calvin Ridley (24% in his last full season)
• WR – Zay Jones (20%)
• TE – Evan Engram (16%)

The Jaguars were a balanced team last year but opened things up during their playoff stretch run, throwing the ball 75% while trailing (+9), 59% when close (+0), and 55% when leading (+7). Whether that carries over into the 2023 season remains to be seen, but with the Jaguars' current roster construction, putting a little more air on the ball would make sense.

The third-year QB was used slightly more than the NFL average in the designed rush game last year (9%), along with an average scramble rate of 4%. While he hasn’t turned into the dual-threat option some hoped, those numbers have been enough to support 334 and 291 yards, along with two and five rushing TDs in his first two seasons.

Lawrence hasn’t notched two 22-plus-point seasons like Herbert, but he is in a similar situation, surrounded by weapons that could unlock a monster passing season.

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Tier 4 – Swinging for the fences

Deshaun Watson | Browns

Fantasy managers that waited for Watson’s return or scooped him off the waiver wire in hopes of top-three upside were severely disappointed last season. Watson was a shell of himself, but ignoring his previous four seasons of fantasy production is challenging:

• 2017: 25.0 points per game (N/A, only seven games)
• 2018: 21.7 points per game (4th)
• 2019: 22.0 points per game (2nd)
• 2020: 23.8 points per game (5th)
• 2022: 15.1 points per game (N/A, only six games)

He will only be 28 this season, and the Browns have alluded to getting more out of their investment by crafting a more pass-heavy approach, and their offseason moves back it up.

• RBs Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson are gone
• Traded for WR Elijah Moore
• Drafted WR Cedric Tillman in Round 3

Watson won’t reach designed rush shares like Hurts, Jackson, and Fields, but he earned a healthy 13% last year—above the 7% NFL average. You have a solid rushing floor to build on when you add that to his above-average career scramble rate of 8%. Watson has a 31-yard per-game rushing average for his career and offers 500-yard upside on the ground.

We don’t know which version of Watson we will see in 2023, but the high-end iteration is undoubtedly in the range of outcomes, making him worth a swing if drafting for ceiling after the top options are off the board.

Arbitrage: Patrick Mahomes

Anthony Richardson | Colts

The No. 4 NFL Draft pick is raw as a passer, and the Colts' weapons aren’t great, but Richardson could still coast to a top-12 finish thanks to his legs. He ran for 654 yards and nine TDs in 12 games as a senior at Florida, accounting for 17% of the designed rushing attempts and posting an 8.4% scramble rate.

In the NFL, sacks don’t count against rushing totals, and you get an extra five games—making it hard to imagine Richardson totaling less than 750 yards on the ground. Since 2012, we have had nine instances of a QB passing for less than 3,500 yards while besting 750 yards on the ground, and they averaged 22 points per game, with only one missing the 20-point threshold at 19.7.

Richardson battled accuracy woes in college, finishing with a 55% career completion rate. While we can’t expect him to fix that overnight, if he makes any improvement at the NFL level, he could produce similar results to Fields, and you can get him multiple rounds later.

Arbitrage: Justin Fields

Tier 5 – Paths to upside

Aaron Rodgers | Jets

Rodgers posted his worst fantasy season in 2022, averaging a lowly 15 points per game. However, he lost Davante Adams, and Christian Watson battled injuries early in the season. We only have to turn back the clock to 2021 and 2020 to find 24.5 and 21.0 averages.

The 19-year veteran doesn’t use his legs like he used to, but only Mahomes and Allen have delivered more TD passes outside of structure in scramble drills over the last three years. Rodgers still has the arm strength to make all the throws and the ability to break down the evolving coverages QBs face in today’s NFL.

The Jets will likely operate a balanced attack, but that is the same type of offense Rodgers smashed in 2020 and 2021. No one will mistake Nathaniel Hackett for an offensive genius, but it is reasonable to expect him to operate a similar offense that Rodgers is comfortable with.

New York offers above-average talent in the receiving room, with uber-talented Garrett Wilson leading the way and Allen Lazard, Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman, and Tyler Conklin operating as contributors.

Rodgers lands at the top of the tier because of his demonstrated ceiling, which we need access to if waiting on QB in 2023.

Arbitrage: Joe Burrow

Geno Smith | Seahawks

After spending the previous seven seasons as a backup, the former second-round pick shocked the world with 19 points per game (QB7). 

Whether operating from a clean pocket or dealing with pressure, Smith earned above-average marks in PFF pass grades and delivered a sizzling 70% completion rate despite a healthy 8.2 aDOT. The NFL average for passers between a 7.7 and 8.7 aDOT is 63% since 2006 (minimum 250 attempts).

The Seahawks were below average in regulation plays per game (60.8), but this improved from their dreadful mark of 55.6 in 2021. Additionally, in most game scripts, Shane Waldron leaned more into the passing attack versus the NFL average.

• Leading by four-plus points: 48% (-1)
• Within three points: 62% (+3)
• Trailing by four-plus points: 72% (+4)

While the Seahawks were below average in total plays in regulation (21st), they ranked 13th in pass attempts thanks to their No. 3 rank in average time remaining on the play clock in neutral situations (11.1 seconds).

Jan 8, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

In 2023 there is a chance we see the team open up the passing game even more after spending a first-round draft pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will join D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The trio can potentially be one of the best WR units in the NFL and provides Smith with many live-outs regarding ceiling scenarios.

1. The Seahawks could pass more if Geno is cooking
2. Seattle could keep pass/run ratios the same, but efficiency improves
3. Shootout scenarios could open up more pass-friendly scripts
4. Some combination of any or all of these

In addition to his passing upside, Smith isn’t your typical pocket passer. He generated 366 rushing yards last season, picking up where he left off in his first two seasons (381 and 240). Smith only scored one rushing TD in 2022, which leaves room for upside. Since 2006, QBs that have averaged between 300 and 400 rushing yards averaged 2.6 TDs.

Smith is one of my favorite targets in early best-ball drafts.

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Arbitrage: Justin Herbert & Trevor Lawrence

Daniel Jones | Giants

Jones set career-high marks in YPA (6.8), completion rate (67%), and quarterback rating (92.5). His 0.52 points per dropback was also a new watermark, thanks to his 703 yards and 7 TDs on the ground. 

With Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka pulling the offensive strings, Jones handled a career-high 16% of the designed rushing attempts, ranking No. 6 in the NFL. Plus, only Fields bested Jones’s 10% scramble rate.

The fifth-year QB earned himself a nice payday, but his underlying data suggests he probably won’t ever be much more than a placeholder in the passing game. Jones ranks below the NFL average in PFF pass grade (71.1), YPA (6.8), and TDs per attempt (3.2%). However, the Giants added Darren Waller via trade and drafted Jalin Hyatt in the third round, providing room for improvement. 

Ultimately, the Giants still have many questions at receiver, but Jones’s ability as a runner in the Daboll attack affords him immediate top-10 potential. While making strides as a passer this late in his career isn’t likely, Jones could push for a top-six season if everything clicks.

Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins

The former first-round pick averaged 297 yards per game, excluding contests where he left the game early due to a concussion. That would have been good for No. 2 in the NFL, behind only Mahomes.

Tagovailoa averaged 20.6 points across those contests, and Miami is bringing back the same core of explosive playmakers in the Mike McDaniel scheme. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, he has the most explosive starting duo, and the Dolphins added speedster Devon Achane to the backfield, who could help tack on additional easy yards. 

The Dolphins ranked 24th in non-overtime plays per game. They love to drain the play clock, similar to the 49ers’ attack, but ultimately finished slightly above average in dropbacks per game (12th) thanks to their preference for passing in all game scripts.

• Leading by four-plus points: 57% (+8)
• Within three points: 63% (+4)
• Trailing by four-plus points: 70% (+2)

While there is some risk for Tagovailoa if the Dolphins lean more into the run, they win via efficiency. No other QB bested his 8.9 yards per attempt (YPA) last season. Plus, the Dolphins’ best offensive players are their WRs.

Tagovailoa isn’t part of the rushing attack, so he must do his damage via the air, which, paired with his concussion history, makes him slightly overpriced versus Geno Smith. However, there is no denying the upside if 100% healthy in 2023.

Dak Prescott | Cowboys

Prescott posted his second-worst PFF pass grade (68.6) and second-worst fantasy points per game of his career. Pair that with Mike McCarthy’s comments about running the ball more, and the vibes around Prescott aren’t great.

While the switch from Kellen Moore to McCarthy as play caller comes with risk, there isn’t much room for Dallas to run the ball more. Since 2006, last season was his most run-heavy season ever, and the team didn’t invest much in free agency or the draft behind Tony Pollard—a player they have mentioned protecting from a huge workload.

Of course, McCarthy could slow down the tempo. Dallas ranked No. 1 in remaining play clock in neutral situations at 11.6 seconds. Still, even then, it is tough to imagine too much of a drop in total plays given McCarthy’s career average of 64.5 excluding overtime—right in line with their 64.7 last year. 

Will the Cowboys remain committed to a balanced attack? Probably. Will they run more than last year? Doubtful. If anything, the most likely outcome is slightly more passing in 2023.

Having said all of that, we can’t expect a pass-first offense right now in Dallas, so Prescott will likely need to do more damage via efficiency over volume. To help the cause, Dallas traded for Brandin Cooks, and they should have a healthier Michael Gallup.

After a rough 2021 coming off of a gruesome ankle injury, Prescott was on pace for 250 yards rushing last season. That is much closer to the 305-yard average we saw over his first four seasons.

I considered dropping Prescott a tier below, but his demonstrated floor is 17.5 points per game, and he has two recent seasons over 21 points per game. So, he gets the benefit of the doubt.

Tier 6 – Pocket passers with weapons

Kirk Cousins | Vikings

If Cousins had 250- to 350-yard rushing upside, he would have made Tier 5 thanks to his fleet of weapons: Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison. He is a lock for 4,250 passing yards and 30ish TDs.

The Vikings ranked No. 5 in dropback rate in leading, close, and trailing game scripts last year, and we should see more of the same in 2023. 

He has three consecutive top-12 finishes but has only reached 20 points per game once in his career. Cousins has never enjoyed a crazy TD efficiency year—he is always around 5% on a per-attempt basis. If that ever breaks in his favor—and he is due—he could make fantasy managers very happy.

Jared Goff | Lions

Not having 2021 first-rounder Jameson Williams for the first six weeks of the season is a setback for Goff, but Amon-Ra St. Brown will carry the load until then.

 While rookie TEs don’t usually provide much fantasy value, Detroit loves their early-second-rounder Sam LaPorta out of Iowa. Jahmyr Gibbs’s closest comps based on the Rookie RB Super Model were Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey, thanks to Gibbs’s high-end receiving chops.

The Lions passed the ball below average in most situations in 2022, but we could see a slight shift once Williams returns—especially if LaPorta or Gibbs comes through early.

Arbitrage: Dak Prescott

Russell Wilson | Broncos

Wilson bombed in 2022, averaging a career-low 16 points per game. That means two of his three worst fantasy performances have come in the last two seasons, making us wonder if the end is near.

Dec 4, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) looks to pass in the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

On the positive side, Wilson showed a spark at the end of the season, posting 24 or more points in three of his last four outings. 

Additionally, Sean Payton will take over the offense, and the Broncos have multiple options that could step up in the receiving department in Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, Tim Patrick, and Greg Dulcich. While none of these players have officially broken out, all of them have flashed upside, and Denver only needs a couple of them to take the next step.

Wilson scored 23.7 points per game in 2020, so the hope is he still has some of that magic, but he will need to regain his form on the ground. That season he gobbled up 511 yards. Over the last two years, that average dropped to 231.

The Broncos won’t likely deploy a pass-heavy attack this season, but Wilson could regain top-12 form thanks to the coaching changes and surrounding talent. Without back-to-back down seasons, he would rank in Tier 5 next to Prescott and Smith.

Tier 7 – Life is a gamble

Kyler Murray | Arizona

Murray is recovering from a late-season ACL injury that could keep him off the field early in 2023. Once he does return, the injury could limit his ability as a rusher. 

If things are going terribly in Arizona, there is a chance the former No. 1 overall NFL selection doesn’t take the field, but that is total speculation. The upshot of selecting Murray in fantasy is simple—he could be back to health when you need him most in the playoffs. He is the only other QB outside of Allen who reached 35 passing attempts and 6 rushing attempts per game in 2022.

Trey Lance | 49ers

The former first-rounder seems to be in the doghouse, and there is a chance he doesn’t play a snap at QB. 

Brock Purdy played well at the end of last season but might not be recovered from an elbow injury to start the season. While Sam Darnold is getting praise, he is still Sam Darnold. 

There is a chance Lance wins the starting job in camp and provides the 49ers with the dual threat they dreamed of in the 2021 draft. Lance is a tough best-ball selection because he could give you donuts across the board, but there aren’t many other rushing-upside candidates late in drafts.

Tier 8 – Shiny new toys

Bryce Young | Panthers

Young doesn’t have any high-end weapons, but his closest comp for me was Burrow, minus the size. 

At Alabama, Young was tremendous as a downfield passer and played well against disguised coverages and pressure. Most importantly, he can make plays outside of structure in the scramble drill. Those are traits we see among the best QBs in today’s game. 

Given the receiving corps, some of those late throws outside of structure could turn into scrambles in his rookie season—Young was recruited as the No. 1 dual-threat QB in 2020.

C.J. Stroud | Texans

Stroud was great from a clean pocket in college but struggled against pressure and disguised coverages. Additionally, he wasn’t strong outside of structure and was the No. 2 pro-style QB in the 2020 class. 

The Texans don’t have many weapons around Stroud, so he will likely need time to develop.

Jordan Love | Packers

The former late-first-rounder sat behind Rodgers for the last three seasons, so it is hard to know what to expect. Referring to his collegiate profile doesn’t help us much—he didn’t face Power Five competition at Utah State. 

However, draft capital is the strongest predictor of future success in the NFL, and getting stuck behind a future Hall-of-Famer is a pretty good excuse for a lack of playing time. Christian Watson provides Love with a weapon that can score from anywhere on the field, and the team also added Luke Musgrave and Jayden Reed in Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft.

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Tier 9 – Last call for starters

If you are in the late rounds and need a QB2 or QB3, these players should all be starters. Some could find their way into Tier 6 during the season if things break their way.

• Derek Carr | Saints
• Matthew Stafford | Rams
• Jimmy Garoppolo | Raiders
• Kenny Pickett | Steelers
• Mac Jones | Patriots

Tier 10 – Battling, ahead in the count

These QBs are in a battle for the starting role but are considered the favorites heading into camp. We will need to adjust as we learn more. None are advisable selections for now in best ball unless you are out of options, but they are worthy late-rounders in deep superflex formats.

• Brock Purdy | 49ers
• Desmond Ridder | Falcons
• Sam Howell | Commanders
• Ryan Tannehill | Titans
• Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers

Tier 11 – Battling, behind in the count

These QBs are in a battle for the starting role but are considered the underdogs heading into camp. We will adjust as we learn more. Unless you are in a deep superflex league, there are no advisable selections for now.

• Will Levis | Titans
• Jacoby Brissett | Commanders
• Taylor Heinicke | Falcons
• Kyle Trask | Buccaneers