Dwain McFarland's 2023 Fantasy Football TE Tiers

Ranking players by position is integral to fantasy football preparation, but grouping them into tiers is crucial to identifying the value you might be leaving in the draft room. 

For example, if you're on the clock and looking at several tight ends in the same tier, waiting until the next round could make sense—someone equally as worthy may be available with your next pick. 

Tiers can also help group players with similar expectations based on upside and floor, which is great for spotting overpriced players, values, and arbitrage plays.

There are seven primary criteria used to create tight end tiers:

• Target pedigree: Recent target shares, targets per route run (TPRR), and air yards share
• Performance peripherals: PFF receiving grade, yards per route run, deep targets (20-plus yards), yards after the catch, and explosive target rate (15-plus-yard receptions)
• Offense quality: Projected team wins (winning teams typically score more and passing YPA correlates strongly to wins)
• Passing volume: Projected team pass attempts per game (excludes overtime)
• Quarterback quality: Team QB1 ADP (combined with passing volume to offset quarterbacks with a higher ADP due to rushing ability)
• Target competition: Number of teammates with a significant ADP (wide receivers with a top-36 ADP plus tight ends with a top-12 ADP on Underdog)
• Player average draft position (ADP)

The first three criteria focus on the player’s ability to generate targets and create production, while the following four data points analyze the team environment. Finally, ADP is a final check against the current market sentiment that helps us extract maximum value from our selections.

For TEs, target pedigree is the most critical aspect of evaluating the position. Target and air yards data correlate strongly with fantasy points and are some of the most stable metrics year over year.

The team environment pales compared to the data points above. However, as we stratify our TEs into target-earning performance groups, the team environment factors pick up signal within the groups.

The ultimate options are tight ends who demand targets at all field levels and make plays after the catch on winning, pass-heavy teams. After that, every tier is some variation of strengths vs. weaknesses in the profile.

Tier 1 – Long live the king

Travis Kelce | Chiefs

• Target-earning profile: TE1-3-worthy target earner, TE1-3-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: TE1-3-worthy PFF rec grade, TE1-3-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Clear-cut No. 1 on a pass-first high-quality offense

Kelce is THE KING. Since 1991, he owns half of the top-six season performances at the TE position. Yes, he will be 34 this season, and this can’t last forever, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down.

In fact, if you read my WR Tiers, you probably already noticed that Kelce’s numbers look more like WR1 numbers. Last year his 2.23 YPRR and 91.3 PFF receiving grade ranked No. 1 out of all TEs with at least 250 routes.

The 11th-year veteran has been a cheat code in fantasy football. He was the only first-round pick last year to rank inside the top eight in playoffs advance rate on Underdog at 30%. Over the last three seasons, he has outscored the No. 3 TE by a whopping 6.4 points per game!

Kelce remains a buy at ADP because of his unique ability to separate your team from the rest of your league in dramatic fashion. Remember, only the QB position has produced more top-performing assets with 10-plus years of experience.

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Tier 2 – Elite target-earners in quality environments

Mark Andrews | Ravens

• Target-earning profile: TE1-3-worthy target earner, TE1-3-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: TE1-3-worthy PFF rec grade, TE1-3-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 1 receiving option on a balanced quality offense

Andrew exploded for 17.5 points per game in 2021, and over the first six weeks of 2022, it looked like he was once again strapped to a rocket headed for the moon. Before picking up a knee injury in Week 6, Andrews averaged 19.1 points, and his average target share was a mouth-watering 32%.

Despite missing time and playing through the injury, he still managed a 25% target share after returning in Week 11 but was only able to manage 9.9 fantasy points per game. Lamar Jackson was lost for the season in Week 13, and the entire offense suffered.

Andrews will get Jackson back this year but will have more competition for targets. Rashod Bateman is healthy, plus the Ravens added Zay Flowers in Round 1 of the NFL Draft and Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency. However, each of these players has question marks in their profile. 

While a 30% ceiling target share probably isn’t realistic anymore with the added competition, Andrews could still push for 23-25%. The 27-year-old is also a target monster in the endzone, averaging 33% of the targets in his last three healthy seasons, which gives him access to double-digit TD upside if the Ravens' offense improves under Todd Monken.

Jan 1, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) reacts after making a catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

Andrews is a PRIORITY target in Round 3 of fantasy drafts after the high-end RBs come off of the board. He was the No. 1 TE in 2021 and checks the right boxes to have a chance to compete with Kelce.

Tier 3 – Elite target-earners in questionable environments

Kyle Pitts | Falcons

• Target-earning profile: TE1-3-worthy target earner, TE1-3-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: TE4-6-worthy PFF rec grade, TE4-6-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B battle with Drake London on a run-first offense with questions

While fantasy managers were severely burned by Pitts’s 7.6 points per game last year, his underlying talent profile still screams elite upside.

The questions about how much improvement we can expect from some combination of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke versus what we saw from Marcus Mariota last year is fair.

The questions about how run-heavy the offense could remain under Arthur Smith are also valid.

I can’t tell you all these issues will magically resolve themselves because they probably won’t.

However, I can tell you that it will be almost impossible for the Falcons' passing attack to be as bad as it was last season. Since 2011, it was the fourth-worst at 172 yards per game. That ranks in the bottom 1% of outcomes.

Also, teams that run as much as the Falcons almost always have a QB heavily involved in the designed run game. Ridder is a solid scrambler but only accounted for 4% of the team’s designed runs in his four starts versus 14% for Mariota. 

Yes, we should still expect the run game to be the identity of Atlanta’s offense, BUT they should pass more than last year.

One last note on Mariota—only 59% of his targets to Pitts were deemed catchable by PFF, which was the lowest mark for TEs with at least 200 routes.

Ridder could struggle, but it will be hard to repeat this sort of performance, and while Heinicke isn’t considered a high-end player, he is a solid backstop if Ridder fails. Terry McLaurin averaged 15.6 points per game in Heinicke’s starts last year, and the veteran signal-caller surprisingly supported two top-36 WR options in five of nine starts.

Drake London will challenge Pitts for targets. Still, given their talent profiles, there is a chance both will be successful in 2023 in a condensed passing attack.

In a nutshell, Pitts profiles more like Kelce and Andrews than any other TE, and his situation is a near lock to improve given how bad it was in 2022. With all these factors plus his reduced price tag (Round 6), the third-year TE is a worthy target in fantasy drafts.

George Kittle | 49ers

• Target-earning profile: TE1-3-worthy target earner, TE1-3-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: TE1-3-worthy PFF rec grade, TE1-3-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Battling three teammates for targets in a run-balanced quality offense

Kittle’s 2022 numbers suggest that I could be overestimating his ability as a target earner, but he is in one of those rare situations where he is surrounded by other target earners like Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey.

Given his 24%, 28%, and 31% TPRR data points from 2019 to 2021, he is probably still one of the best options in the game. Kittle still carries elite spike-week production and has league-winning upside should the 49ers battle injuries at WR.

In three games without Samuel, Kittle delivered 22.5 fantasy points per game. Additionally, he found his way over the 15-point threshold in four other contests. 

If Kittle played for the Bills, he would challenge Kelce for the No. 1 rank, but he falls into Tier 3 due to the 49ers’ balanced offensive philosophy and the fierce competition for targets. He is a target when he falls beyond ADP.

Tier 4 – Good target-earners in good environments

T.J. Hockenson | Vikings

• Target-earning profile: TE4-6-worthy target earner, TE7-9-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: TE7-9-worthy PFF rec grade, TE7-9-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 2A/2B battle with Jordan Addison in a pass-first quality offense

Hockenson averaged 14.9 points per game with the Vikings if we exclude Week 18, where he only participated in 48% of the routes, and include the Wild Card game. Over that stretch, he registered a 22% target share, accounting for 21% of Minnesota’s air yards.

The fifth-year veteran has TE1-3 talent upside based on his splits with Minnesota. However, his underlying data points align when comparing his entire 2022 campaign to previous seasons, suggesting we are likely still looking at a TE4-9-worthy talent profile.

That talent profile can go a long way when you play in a pass-first offense with a quality QB. 

The Vikings ranked fifth in pass rate above expected in trailing, close, and leading game scripts. Given the team’s coaching staff, weapons, and questions on defense, we can expect the Vikings to be all-in on their passing attack again in 2023.

Hockenson is slightly overpriced as the first TE to go from this tier at pick 50, where opportunity costs are higher. However, he profiles as a quality TE4-6 option.

Darren Waller | Giants

• Target-earning profile: TE4-6-worthy target earner, TE1-3-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: TE7-9-worthy PFF rec grade, TE4-6-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 1 on a balanced offense

Waller registered his second-lowest TPRR of his career at 17% last year. However, he battled a hamstring injury that kept him off the field for eight games. In his previous three seasons, his TPRR clocked in at 23%, 27%, and 24%.

The big question is if last year’s poor performance was injury-induced or if he has lost a step heading into his age-31 season. 

Given that TEs don’t hit the age cliff as early as WRs, I ultimately landed on Waller as being some version between last year and his peak in 2020, averaging 17.5 points per game. While I am bullish on Waller in 2023, you could make the opposite argument and have a strong case.

The Giants don’t have a high-end target earner on the roster, so if Waller still has it in him, he has the clearest path in this tier to finishing as a top-three fantasy tight end. He is also the cheapest of the group, making him a player I am targeting often.

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Tier 5 – Good target-earners in questionable environments

Dallas Goedert | Eagles

• Target-earning profile: TE4-6-worthy target earner, TE10-12-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: TE4-6-worthy PFF rec grade, TE4-6-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Clear-cut No. 3 on a balanced high-quality offense

Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, AZ, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) celebrates with tight end Dallas Goedert (88) after scoring a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first quarter in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Chow/The Republic via USA TODAY Sports

Goedert checks most of the boxes for a mid-range TE1 talent profile and resides on a team that offers plenty of scoring upside. However, he is stuck playing with two alpha target earners, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Last season he saw a dip in TPRR, falling below 19% for the first time in his career.

Unlike Kittle, Goedert doesn’t have TE1-3 talent upside, so he is more dependent on an injury to a teammate to pay off his price tag. 

Even if that scenario occurs, the sixth-year option isn’t a lock for top-three status, given his 17% target share on plays without one of Smith or Brown on the field over the last two seasons (yes, Brown played for the Titans in 2021).

Goedert is a fun stack for Jalen Hurts’s team and a quality mid-range TE1 option, but isn’t a priority in drafts. The further he falls past ADP, the more likely I will click the draft button.

Pat Freiermuth | Steelers

• Target-earning profile: TE7-9-worthy target earner, TE7-9-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: TE4-6-worthy PFF rec grade, TE7-9-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Battling George Pickens to retain the No. 2 role on a balanced offense

Freiermuth improved in target share, air yards share, PFF receiving grade, and YPRR in his sophomore campaign.

The QB situation is unresolved in Pittsburgh, but Freiermuth gets the nod over David Njoku and Evan Engram because he is only heading into Year 3.

While he gets dismissed as a plodder, he delivered an explosive reception on 25% of his targets, which finished second behind Kittle for TEs with at least 250 routes.

There is a chance Freiermuth keeps bending the target-earning curve up and to the right, which could lead to some big fantasy performances if Kenny Pickett improves in Year 2.

David Njoku | Browns

• Target-earning profile: TE7-9-worthy target earner, TE7-9-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: TE4-6-worthy PFF rec grade, TE7-9-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 2 or No. 3 on a potential pass-first quality offense

Njoku was a late-round TE favorite last season thanks to his underlying talent profile and the departure of Austin Hooper, and he came through with a top-10 performance. His 82% route participation in healthy games was a career-high.

The Browns added competition to the receiving corps this offseason with Elijah Moore, who Njoku will battle for the No. 2 role in the offense. 

While battling for targets isn’t ideal, Njoku has a shot at winning that arm wrestling contest, and if he doesn’t, he might be protected by a more pass-friendly approach in 2023.

Evan Engram | Jaguars

• Target-earning profile: TE7-9-worthy target earner, backup-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: backup-worthy PFF rec grade, TE10-12-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Battling for the No. 3 or 4 role in a pass-balanced offense

Engram offers a mid-range to low-end TE1 talent profile operating as an underneath target in a Jaguars offense that sparked late in 2022.

The 29-year-old won’t be a threat to lead Jacksonville in targets given their depth at WR—especially after adding Calvin Ridley. However, when matchups dictate, he has spike week potential, as we saw last year with outings of 15.5, 39.2, 18.3, and 22.3 points.

Dalton Schultz | Texans

• Target-earning profile: TE7-9-worthy target earner, TE7-9-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: backup-worthy PFF rec grade, backup-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Battling for No. 1 role on a balanced offense with questions

Schultz underperformed versus his ADP last season and gets a downgrade in quality of environment after landing with the Texans. However, he picked up an MCL injury early in the season that limited his route performance and route participation.

After the Week 9 bye, Schultz accounted for 20% of the Cowboys' targets, including the two playoff games.

While Schultz won’t suddenly turn into a target monster in Houston, he has enough target-earning ability to push for 18 to 20% of the work in an offense without much target competition.

Schultz goes multiple rounds after his counterparts in the tier, making him a solid fall-back option if you don’t land your dream TE early.

Tier 6 – Unproven commodities with UPSIDE

• Dalton Kincaid | Bills – the young TE has a lot of obstacles to overcome, given how bad rookie TE production has been historically and the fact that Dawson Knox will challenge for TE snaps. However, he graded out in the 90th percentile in the Rookie TE Super Model and lands on a pass-first offense with an elite QB. Thanks to a unique blend of skills, he profiles more like a slot WR, and Buffalo doesn’t have a high-end No. 2 option.
• Chigoziem Okonkwo | Titans – only participated in a route on 32% of the team's dropbacks but flashed TE1-3-worthy ability with a 26% TPRR, 2.61 YPRR, and 84.6 PFF receiving grade. With Austin Hooper gone, Okonkwo can push for 70% route participation and operate as the No. 2 in the offense behind Treylon Burks.
• Greg Dulcich | Broncos – displayed TE10-12 target-earning ability and TE1-3-worthy air yards production as a rookie. Sean Payton might keep him off the field in heavy personnel groupings, but Dulcich should still push for 60-70% route participation and offers the big-play upside that could make him a centerpiece to Payton’s playcalling designs.

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Tier 7 – Proven veterans with low-end TE1 potential

• Tyler Higbee | Rams – his 20% target share puts him in the TE4-6 range, and he could have honestly been even better if the Rams didn’t ask him to block so often. The 31-year-old was limited to 70% route participation but made up for it with a 24% TPRR. He still looks like the second-best weapon on the team behind Cooper Kupp.
• Cole Kmet | Bears – Kmet posted a respectable 18% target share, but his emergence coincided directly with the loss of Darnell Mooney. History tells us Kmet has a low-end TE1 profile, but you have to squint to see it with Mooney and D.J. Moore clearly in front of him in a run-first offense.

Nov 20, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet (85) makes a catch against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

• Gerald Everett | Chargers – the pass-friendly confines of the Chargers' offense are alluring, and Everett’s historical TPRR data suggests he has mid-range TE1 potential. However, his target share was only 12% in games when on the field with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams last season. That duo should play far more this season, and Everett will have to battle rookie Quentin Johnston and Austin Ekeler for looks, which could leave him as the No. 5 option. If a WR goes down, Joshua Palmer was the favorite over Everett in that scenario last year. This is a pure bet on the Chargers' offense and TD luck.

Tier 8 – TE2 and TE3 options with a path to playing time

• Irv Smith Jr. | Bengals – Smith has yet to prove that he is a target earner, but he lands in a pass-first offense with an elite young QB. Smith was a second-round selection out of Alabama but has battled injuries throughout his career. We have seen TEs breakout later in their careers, and Smith is only 25.
• Sam LaPorta | Lions – LaPorta could move up the ranks if he continues to impress this summer. The Lions were aggressive, taking him at the top of the second round, and the former Hawkeye was a high-end target earner in college. Rookie breakouts are rare at TE, but the Lions' depth chart is barren in front of LaPorta, who could push for the No. 3 role in the passing attack.
• Michael Mayer | Raiders – the rookie is falling down draft boards, but he was a young breakout at Notre Dame. He will battle Austin Hooper for the starting TE role.
• Juwan Johnson | Saints – operated in a limited route participation role (69%) last season and figures to do so again after the addition of Foster Moreau. Johnson has borderline low-end TE1 target-earning ability that should make him good for some spike weeks in best ball land.
• Dawson Knox | Bills – never capitalized on an amazing opportunity in the Bills' offense, registering a backup-worthy receiving profile. Kincaid will challenge for looks but could operate primarily out of the slot.
• Mike Gesicki | Patriots – demonstrated a mid-range TE1 talent profile before last season and landed on a team without a clear target earner. However, Hunter Henry will take most of the in-line snaps, and JuJu Smith-Schuster will challenge for slot reps, which could create a rotation for snaps.
• Tyler Conklin | Jets – was very active in games where the Jets were forced to pass in 2022. His 17% TPRR suggests low-end TE1 upside, and Aaron Rodgers brings a huge boost to New York’s passing attack. If he can avoid a rotation with C.J. Uzomah and Jeremy Ruckert, we could see a Robert Tonyan-type spike year from Conklin.
• Hayden Hurst | Panthers – the passing attack in Carolina doesn’t offer a target hog, which could leave the door open for Hurst to push for a low-end TE1-type campaign. He will never be a target hog, but his 17% TPRR suggests he could earn looks if he can avoid the dreaded TE rotation Frank Reich has notoriously deployed.
• Hunter Henry | Patriots – often undrafted in best ball formats, but delivered a 74% route participation in 2022. Despite the arrival of Gesicki, Henry again profiles as the primary in-line option, given Gesicki’s blocking woes that kept him off the field in Miami.
• Noah Fant | Seahawks – will rotate with Will Dissly but should be around the 50% route participation threshold in an offense that could be explosive. Fant’s 18% TPRR tells us he has low-end TE1 potential should he earn more routes. 

Tier 9 – TE2 and TE3 options with questionable roles

• Taysom Hill | Saints – we could see the veteran poach some snaps in his Swiss Army Knife role, but it is hard to see a path to many snaps at QB with Derek Carr and Jameis Winston on the team.
• Jelani Woods | Colts – flashed low-end TE1 ability but could remain stuck in a rotation with Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson. With Frank Reich gone, there is at least a chance that the rotation from hell finally ends.
• Trey McBride | Cardinals – if Zach Ertz is cut, McBride moves into Tier 8. For now, Ertz is a threat to regain the starting role upon return unless McBride explodes out of the gate. Unfortunately, he registered backup-worthy numbers across the board last year despite closing the season out as the starter. It can take TEs time to develop, so he could turn it around, but it would have been nice to see some positives.
• Isaiah Likely | Ravens – flashed TE1 ability with a 21% TPRR as a rookie, but the path to playing time is challenging with Andrews locked into the starting role and new depth at WR. If Andrews goes down, Likely could push into the TE1 conversation.
• Luke Musgrave | Packers – flashed seam-stretching ability in college but was a low-end target earner. Green Bay’s TE pecking order is undetermined at this point, and the No. 2 role in the passing game is also up for grabs.
• Cade Otton | Buccaneers – hard to get excited about a team projected for the second-least points by oddsmakers, but Otton could carve out over half of the passing down work. He didn’t show much as a target earner last season, but he was only a rookie.

Glossary

Age = player’s age when the season starts in September

PPR/Gm = points per reception; points per game

Rush share = player’s share of rushing attempts in regular season games played

SDD = short down and distance (less than 3 yards to go on 2nd, 3rd and 4th down)

LDD = long down and distance (3-plus yards to go on 3rd or 4th down)

MTF = missed tackles forced rate

YCO = average yards after contact

EXP/Att = 10-plus yard rushing attempts per attempt

RR/DB = routes run per dropback (also known as route participation)

Target share = player’s targets divided by team pass attempts in regular season games played

TPRR = targets per route run

YPRR = yards per route run

aDOT = average depth of target

Air yards = aDOT multiplied by targets

Air yards share = share of team’s air yards

WOPR = weighted opportunity rating that combines the share of team targets and air yards (1.5*target share)+(0.7*air yards share)

Deep = targets of 20-plus yards

YAC = yards after the catch

EXP/Tgt = 15-plus yard receptions per target

Team Proj Rush Att/Gm = projected regulation rushing attempts for team

Team Proj DB/Gm = projected regulation dropbacks for team

Top 48 RBs = number of RBs from team going inside the top 48

Top 36 WRs = number of WRs from team going inside the top 36

Top 12 TEs = number of TEs from team going inside the top 12

Team Proj Wins = current win totals from BetMGM

Close = score within three points

Trailing = behind by four-plus points

Leading = ahead by four-plus points

RB1-worthy = top 12

RB2-worthy = 13 to 24

RB3-worthy = 25 to 36