Dwain McFarland's 2023 Fantasy Football WR Tiers

Ranking players by position is integral to fantasy football preparation, but grouping them into tiers is crucial to identifying the value you might be leaving in the draft room. 

For example, if you're on the clock and looking at several quarterbacks in the same tier, waiting until the next round could make sense—someone equally as worthy may be available with your next pick. Tiers can also help group players with similar expectations based on upside and floor, which is great for spotting overpriced players, values and arbitrage plays.

ADP = Underdog (best ball, half-point PPR)

There are seven primary criteria used to create wide receiver tiers:

• Target pedigree: Recent target shares, targets per route run (TPRR) and air yards share
• Performance peripherals: PFF receiving grade, Yards per route run, deep targets (20-plus yards), yards after the catch and explosive target rate (15-plus-yard receptions)
• Offense quality: Projected team wins (winning teams typically score more and passing YPA correlates strongly to wins)
• Passing volume: Projected team pass attempts per game (excludes overtime)
• Quarterback quality: Team QB1 ADP (combined with passing volume to offset quarterbacks with a higher ADP due to rushing ability)
• Target competition: Number of teammates with a significant ADP (wide receivers with a top-36 ADP plus tight ends with a top-12 ADP on Underdog)
• Player average draft position (ADP)

The first three criteria focus on the player’s ability to generate targets and create production, while the following four data points analyze the team environment. Finally, ADP is a final check against the current market sentiment that helps us extract maximum value from our selections.

For WRs,  target pedigree is the most critical aspect of evaluating the position. Target and air yards data correlate strongly with fantasy points and are some of the most stable metrics year over year for WRs.

The team environment pales compared to the data points above. However, as we stratify our WRs into target-earning performance groups, the team environment factors pick up signal within the groups.

The ultimate options are receivers who demand targets at all field levels and make plays after the catch on winning pass-heavy teams. After that, every tier is some variation of strengths vs. weaknesses in the profile.

Tier 1 – Young Alphas In Great Situations

Justin Jefferson | Vikings

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR1-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Clear-cut No. 1 on a pass-first quality offense

Jefferson has delivered 16.9, 19.5 and 21.5 points per game in his first three seasons, joining Michael Thomas and Odell Beckham Jr. as one of three WRs to do so since 2011.

The fourth-year WR is so good it is hard to find worthy data comps – he checks every box. Essentially, he breaks the model.

We could see rookie first-rounder Jordan Addison compete for more looks than we saw from Adam Thielen last season. Still, Jefferson has consistently earned his opportunities since entering the league with target shares of 23%, 27% and 26%.

The Vikings offer a great offensive environment with a QB who is one of only five passers in the NFL to average 260-plus yards passing in each of the last three seasons. Only Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady share that honor. Kirk Cousins may get his share of criticism in the real NFL world, but he can support multiple weapons through the air for fantasy football.

Additionally, the Vikings leaned heavily into the passing game last season with Kevin O’Connell taking over. Minnesota ranked 5th in dropback rate in every type of game script.

• Trailing by four-plus points: 73% (+5)
• Within three points: 66% (+6)
• Leading by four-plus points: 57% (+8)

At 24, Jefferson is worthy of the No. 1 pick in PPR and half-PPR formats.

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Ja’Marr Chase | Bengals

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR2-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 1 on a pass-first quality offense

Chase bested his 18-point-per-game average as a rookie in his sophomore campaign by reaching 20.5 per game. He joins Beckham Jr. as only the second WR since 2011 to register 18 or more points per game.

Despite playing across from Tee Higgins, Chase averaged 25% of the targets when only including games Higgins finished. However, in games without Higgins, we saw Chase erupt with a 34% share and 23.1 points per game – he has the talent to operate as the centerpiece of an offense.

In addition to his alpha target-earning profile, he resides in a high-end offensive attack projected to win 11.5 games by BetMGM. Joe Burrow averages 279 passing yards per game over his first three seasons, and the Bengals morphed into a pass-first operation in 2023, opting to throw the ball more than the NFL average in all situations.

• Trailing by four-plus points: 70% (+2)
• Within three points: 72% (+13)
• Leading by four-plus points: 56% (+7)

Thanks to his age and the high-end QB pairing, Chase separates himself from aging options with more offensive questions in Tier 2.

Tier 2 – Aging Alphas

Cooper Kupp | Rams

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR1-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Clear-cut No. 1 on a pass-balanced offense

Kupp will be 30 this season, but no other WR averaged more fantasy points per game in 2021 (25.7) or 2022 (22.6). With Matthew Stafford back for another go, the veteran slot WR could post numbers that look more like RB1 numbers again in 2023.

If Kupp is on the edge of breaking down, it isn’t showing up in his ability as a target earner or the advanced peripherals. His 88.1 PFF receiving grade was still WR1-worthy.

The Rams didn’t add any noteworthy competition. Kupp doesn’t have any other WR or TE teammates inside the top 36 or 12 at their positions, respectively.

The Rams' offense has questions with Stafford getting older and a questionable offensive line, ultimately pushing Kupp a tier below the young alphas. However, there is no doubt about his demonstrated upside. He is worthy of an early- to mid-first-round selection in PPR and half-PPR formats this summer.

Tyreek Hill | Dolphins

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR1-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 1 on a pass-balanced quality offense

Hill eclipsed the 20-point-per-game threshold (20.5) for the third time in his seven-year career in 2022. In addition, Hill landed a mouth-watering 3.30 YPRR, and no other WR posted a higher regular-season PFF receiving grade (92.2).

According to PFF data, Hill was the Dolphins' go-to option against man and zone. He was the only WR in the NFL with at least 250 routes to eclipse the 30% target rate against both coverage types at 33% and 32%.

The 29-year-old’s ability to make big plays after the catch or over the top makes him a threat to score on any play. However, last season marked a career-low in TDs per route run at 1.3%, leaving room for upside. 

Additionally, Hill registered an 84% route participation, well below the 90% we see from typical WR1s. If that number creeps up, it will provide another path toward a higher ceiling outcome.

If Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy – ultimately the No. 1 question around the Dolphins’ superstar WR – Hill’s ceiling is to the moon. However, Tagovailoa is one play away from a potentially career-ending injury. Adding Mike White helps, but the Dolphins weren’t the same without Tagovailoa in 2022.

Hill was a steal last season at the end of the second Round in drafts, but in 2023 you will have to pay up with a top-five pick to attain his services.

Stefon Diggs | Bills

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR1-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Clear-cut No. 1 on a pass-first quality offense

Buffalo has been good to Diggs with WR3, WR7 and WR4 finishes. The 28.8-year-old saw a slight dip in production in 2021 with 16.8 points per game but rebounded with 19.8 in 2022.

Diggs doesn’t have the same big-play upside as Hill and offers a slightly lower target share ceiling than Kupp, but his situation is far more dependable. The Bills are a pass-first offense that ranked second in pass rate in neutral and leading game scripts last year, and Josh Allen is one of the best (and toughest) QBs in the game.

Of course, with a couple of extra big plays and some TD variance, Diggs could still post a No. 1 WR season – making him a clear Round 1 selection in PPR and half-PPR formats.

Davante Adams | Raiders

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR1-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Clear-cut No. 1 on a balanced offense

Adams eclipsed the WR1-worthy average across multiple categories in his first year without Aaron Rodgers.

While his YPRR was slightly down from his 2.96 and 2.82 marks in 2020 and 2021, it was still elite, and Adams registered his best air yard share season ever at 42%. In addition, he tied Jefferson for third in PFF receiving grade in the regular season (90.5) and was the No. 1 WR in weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) at 76%.

Adams will be 30.7 when the season starts and undergo another QB change with Jimmy Garoppolo taking over for Derek Carr. While the two QBs are similar in style, Garoppolo has missed time in every season except one over the last four seasons. Bryan Hoyer and fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell would be clear downgrades if called upon.

Adams carries some additional risk in 2023 thanks to age and offensive changes, but he remains the undisputed No. 1 on a Raiders roster, making him worth a late Round 1 or early Round 2 pick in PPR and half-PPR leagues.

Tier 3 – High-end target earners in their prime

A.J. Brown | Eagles

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR1-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A on a run-balanced quality offense

Brown’s inaugural season with the Eagles was an absolute smash, finishing with a career-high 17.9 fantasy points per game.

The fifth-year veteran had already demonstrated a WR1-worthy target-earning profile before 2022, but he registered his best target share last season. Despite playing alongside another high-end target earner in DeVonta Smith (25%), Brown’s talent was enough to score fantasy points by the bushel.

If Brown played in a pass-first offense like Jefferson and Chase and didn’t play with another WR1 profile, he would be in Tier 1. Brown’s price is a tad high as a late Round 1 selection, which might be his ceiling without an injury to Brown or a shift to a pass-centric offense. However, the Eagles should be good again, and if you are more concerned about the age cliff, he is younger than the Tier 2 options.

CeeDee Lamb | Cowboys

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR1-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Clear-cut No. 1 on a balanced quality offense

Lamb took a big step forward in Year 3, eclipsing WR1-worthy marks across the board, including a PFF receiving grade of 87.5. He was the WR6 overall in fantasy and averaged 17.7 points per game.

Despite only 18% of Lamb’s targets coming on throws of 20-plus yards, he delivered a reception of 15-plus yards on 28% of his targets – well above the 21% average. Operating primarily from the slot (63%), Lamb is a mismatch. The average NFL WR saw 33% of their targets against linebackers or safeties in primary coverage versus Lamb at 46%.

With Kellen Moore gone, Lamb might get different looks, and Brandin Cooks will also be vying for targets. However, the 24-year-old WR has proven his ability as a target earner and plays with a proven QB on a team expected to win over nine games.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, backup-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR1-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Clear-cut No. 1 on a balanced quality offense

St. Brown averaged 16.7 points per game last season and finished as the WR7 overall. 

He suffered an ankle injury in Week 3 that kept him out of Week 4 and limited his role in Week 5. Additionally, he left the Week 7 contest (12% route participation) due to a head injury. Excluding those contests, he delivered a 28% target share, 33% air yards share and averaged 19 points per game.

While some will be concerned with his 6.7 aDOT, St. Brown has Cooper Kupp vibes as a slot alpha. Despite his low aDOT, he delivered a 15-plus yard reception on 30% of his targets. That is nine percentage points above the NFL average.

St. Brown could see more target competition as the season progresses. Due to suspension, Jameson Williams will miss the first six games, and rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta could improve with time. However, given St. Brown’s target-earning profile, he is the heavy favorite to lead this team in targets, and we have seen Jared Goff support multiple top-24 receiving options before.

St. Brown is one of my favorite early-Round 2 two selections in fantasy drafts.

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Tier 4 – Next-gen greatness?

Garrett Wilson | Jets

• Target-earning profile: WR2-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR1-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 1 on a balanced quality offense

Wilson was the 21st-ranked overall fantasy WR last season and averaged 12.8 points per game. His 85.9 PFF receiving grade was the fifth-highest by a rookie since 2011. So who were the other WRs to reach 85 or higher, you ask…

• Odell Beckham Jr. (91.2)
• Justin Jefferson (90.5)
• Terry McLaurin (86.5)
• Michael Thomas (86.3)
• Drake London (85.3)

Wilson carries WR1 overall upside, and it could happen as soon as 2023 with Aaron Rodgers providing a MASSIVE upgrade over Zach Wilson. Last year only 66% of the rookie’s targets were considered catchable. That was the worst percentage for WRs with a similar aDOT (10.8), 10 percentage points below the average.

The Jets don’t have another receiving weapon with dominant traits like Wilson, leaving the door open for a funnel offense. If Wilson can do his part, Rodgers has a history of peppering a superstar WR with endless targets (i.e., Davante Adams).

Wilson doesn’t have the same established floor as the Tier 3 options but has Tier 1 upside.

DeVonta Smith | Eagles

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR2-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1B on a run-balanced quality offense

Imagine garnering a 25% target share in your second season while playing with target-monster A.J. Brown. That is precisely what Smith did on his way to a 15.1 point-per-game average, finishing as the WR9 in overall points.

Smith offers a bonafide WR1 target-earning profile but falls behind Wilson in the tier due to his target competition with Brown and Dallas Goedert. 

Smith has paths to underperforming (see Deebo Samuel last year) as a late Round 2 selection, but it is hard to ignore a talent this good in a high-scoring offense. Moreover, he comes in ahead of Jaylen Waddle thanks to fewer questions about QB health and a more robust target profile.

Chris Olave | Saints

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR2-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 1 on a run-balanced offense

I can’t help but laugh when I hear knocks on Olave due to his style of play. All we care about is how well he maximizes his skills (whatever they may be) to earn targets. And on that front, he SMASHED as a rookie. There were only two WRs in the NFL to deliver a 25% target share or higher plus a 40% or higher air yard share – Olave and Davante Adams. 

Michael Thomas was decent before his injury but looked more like a WR3 option, leaving Olave without any high-end competition. Derek Carr hasn’t been a great fantasy option, but he has previously shown an ability to support a high-end weapon or two top-24 WRs.

Olave delivered a top-24 finish as a rookie and has high-end WR1 upside this season, especially if Thomas can’t get things going.

Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins

• Target-earning profile: WR2/3-worthy target earner, WR3-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR2-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 2 with 1B upside on a quality pass-balanced offense

Waddle delivered his second top-12 WR overall finish in as many seasons and averaged 15.4 points per game – almost identical to his 15.5 as a rookie. With the arrival of Hill, he took a slight step back in the target share (24% in 2021) department but upped his aDOT from 7.4 to 11.9.

Waddle has the speed to burn, and it shows up in yards after the catch (YAC), where he averaged seven yards – only behind Deebo Samuel’s astronomical 8.9 (minimum 250 routes). While Deebo has proven to be worthy of outlier status, Waddle hasn’t yet but plays in a similar style offense with Mike McDaniel, who thrives on creating mismatches for his playmakers.

The 24.8-year-old WR grades out behind Wilson and Smith in the tier due to QB questions, a lesser target-earning profile and injury concerns with Tagovailoa. However, his ADP keeps him in the mix. Plus, he has the efficiency juice to payoff again as a Round 2 pick, even if he remains static as a target earner.

D.K. Metcalf | Seahawks

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR3-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A on a balanced quality offense

Metcalf picked up additional target competition in first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba but has delivered a WR1-worthy target-earning profile in back-to-back seasons, finishing as the WR14 and WR15.

He registered a career-low 1.0% touchdowns per route run – well below his 1.5% career average. If that rebounds in 2023, Metcalf could still push for WR1 territory, given Geno Smith’s play and the more pass-friendly offense. The Seahawks ranked ninth in pass rate in trailing scripts and ninth in neutral situations.

The Seahawks' offense is getting crowded, which adds downside for Metcalf, but his talent profile still screams upside.

Tier 5 – Young ADP Outliers

Tee Higgins | Bengals

• Target-earning profile: WR3-worthy target earner, WR2-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 2 receiving option on a quality pass-first offense

Considering his profile after three seasons, Higgins is going too high in drafts. This doesn’t mean he is a bad player; we just aren’t likely to see a big step forward. 

Having said that, his performance in 2022 wasn’t as bad as the numbers below indicate. Once you remove three games where he left with less than a 25% route participation due to injury, he had a 21% target share and a 35% air yards share.

Of course, Ja’Marr Chase missed four of those contests with a hip injury. Without those games, Higgins delivered a 20% target share and 33% air yards share.

Ultimately, Higgins grades out closer to Tier 6 and Tier 8 options, going 20 to 30 picks later. That is a steep price to pay for the Bengals logo. Among the top 14 drafted WRs on Underdog, no WR offers a worse WOPR – even after adjusting for his injuries (53%) – outside of Waddle, but Higgins is entering Year 4 rather than Year 3.

His closest comps after Year 3 are Terry McLaurin, T.Y. Hilton and Torrey Smith. If Higgins doesn’t break out this season, he will fall into McLaurin’s draft range (late Round 4) next season. Hilton ultimately did register one booming season in Year 5 before registering one final WR3 season in Year 7 before flaming out, and Smith fell off after a WR3 finish in Year 4.

Higgins is a fade at ADP – give me one of the high-upside runners like Tony Pollard or Rhamondre Stevenson (or both) instead. We will need a spike efficiency season from Higgins (possible) or an injury to Chase to squeeze value out of the pick, and we can do that later in drafts.

If you want to build your Burrow stacks, that is understandable, but the price tag on Higgins stings when you miss Burrow. So my preferred method for acquiring shares is when he falls at least six picks past ADP. Ironically, that also makes him easier to stack with Burrow, who you can snag ahead of the Chase drafter coming back in Round 4.

Christian Watson | Packers

• Target-earning profile: WR2-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 1 on a run-balanced offense

Watson is an outlier in a good way – the primary factor holding him down in the rankings is ADP.

His target-earning profile numbers below are misleading because he battled injuries early in the year. However, once he took over a full-time role in Week 10, his average target share was 23%, and his air yards share was a blistering 41%. During that span, he also averaged a WR1-worthy 17.2 points per game.

Watson will certainly regress in the TD department. His 2.6% TDs per route run was well above the 0.9% NFL average for WRs with at least 250 routes. However, Watson offers a unique blend of abilities as a deep threat and YAC monster that could make him a high-end TD scorer throughout his career. 

• Deep target rate: 28% (+8)
• YAC: 6.4 (+2.2 vs. similar aDOT)

The Packers added Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft to the receiving corps to accompany Romeo Doubs. Watson graded out at the 83rd percentile in the WR Rookie Super Model, which was better than any of the additions. Watson is my clear favorite to take over the No. 1 role based on the model plus Year 1 production.

Watson falls below the Tier 4 names thanks to a smaller sample and a lower ADP. He also has an unknown at QB, but historically we don’t need a high-end quarterback to post a fantasy-relevant season; we just need Jordan Love not to be Marcus Mariota-level bad.

Watson offers WR1 upside as an arbitrage play on Wilson and Olave, making him one of my favorite swings in Round 4.

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Tier 6 – Pre-cliff veteran WR2s

Calvin Ridley | Jaguars

• Target-earning profile: WR2-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR2/3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1/2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B battle with Kirk in a crowded quality pass-balanced offense

The last time we saw an entire season from Ridley was in 2020 the year before Arthur Smith arrived in Atlanta. It was his third season, and he broke out with an 18.8 point-per-game campaign, finishing as the WR6 overall.

However, things weren’t as rosy in 2021 before he left the team for personal reasons and then got suspended for 2022. His 26% TPRR was fire, but his 1.43 YPRR and 64.9 PFF receiving grade were forgettable.

Now he will suit up for the Jaguars who suddenly have a strong group of receiving options with Ridley joining Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram.

We can forecast a ceiling in the WR2 range with Kirk, but with Ridley, there is a chance he will regain that 2020 form or even take a step forward. Unfortunately, the market is all over it with Ridley’s Round 3 price tag versus Round 5 for Kirk.

Ridley will have plenty of competition for looks in Jacksonville, but the Jaguars leaned more into the pass in all types of game scripts down the stretch, and drafters are high on Trevor Lawrence in 2023.

The 28.7-year-old feels slightly overpriced, but he edges out the rest of the tier thanks to his theoretical WR1 upside and a potentially pass-friendly offense.

Amari Cooper | Browns

• Target-earning profile: WR2-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR2-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 1 on a quality pass-balanced offense

Cooper was on pace for his best season before Deshaun Watson took over for Jacoby Brissett. Ultimately, he ended up where he always does – somewhere between 13 and 15 fantasy points per game – with 14.6. 

Cooper averaged a 25% target share with Brissett, but that fell to 22% with Watson. The 29-year-old WR has always been a great timing player, where he wins early in the route. However, Watson has eclipsed the three-second time-to-throw threshold in three of five seasons, taking his time to find the big play.

In simplest terms, Watson has been a high-quality starting QB in four of five seasons, and Cooper looks like the best receiving option on the team. If those two things hold and the Browns turn into a pass-first quality offense as rumored, Cooper should be a solid WR2 bet.

Deebo Samuel | 49ers

• Target-earning profile: WR2-worthy target earner, backup-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B on a crowded quality run-balanced offense

Samuel battled injuries, and the 49ers added Christian McCaffrey to their loaded receiving corps in 2022. Amazingly, his 23% TPRR was only one percentage point below his 2022 campaign, and his rushing attempts per game (3.3) remained static after the CMC addition.

Samuel has always been a low air-yards earner. However, his other-worldly ability after the catch has always come through, making it a non-issue. Out of WRs with at least 30 receptions, he has finished first in three out of four seasons.

• 2019: 8.5 (2nd)
• 2020: 12.2 (1st)
• 2021: 10.2 (1st)
• 2022: 8.9 (1st)

The 27.7-year-old’s routes can be taken away by man coverage, which is why his man-zone splits are consistently bad. Last year his target rate dropped from 26% vs. zone to 15% against man. Fortunately, the NFL is primarily a zone league, with teams utilizing zone almost 70% of the time.

Ultimately, a decrease in TDs was the primary driver of his near eight-point-per-game fall in PRR formats. His receiving TDs fell from six to two, and his rushing TDs plummeted from eight to three. In 2021, he registered 15 red zone rushing attempts, leading to six scores. In 2022, the red zone totes shriveled to eight, with only two gallops into the paint.

Samuel still carries spike week potential and has upside should any of the 49ers' other weapons go down, but it is hard to see a clear path for a WR1 rebound, given all the factors. The 21.1-point per-game 2021 outburst might have been an outlier season, given his 12.6, 11.5 and 13.3 averages in other years.

Deebo is a solid veteran to mix into the portfolio but isn’t a primary target – we could easily be buying a WR3 at WR2 pricing.

D.J. Moore | Bears

• Target-earning profile: WR2-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 1 on a run-first offense

After registering 22% target shares in years two and three, Moore set a career-high in 2021 at 26% and followed that up with a 24% mark last season. His 28% air-yard share ranked No. 1 in the NFL. Unfortunately, he had the eighth-worst catchable target rate (64%) and only registered 11.7 points per game after reaching 14-plus the three previous seasons.

Last season was also a career low in YPRR (1.74), below his WR2-worthy 1.94 career mark. This sort of thing can happen to players. Just like an efficiency spike year can turn a WR2 into a WR1, an efficiency dip year can lead to a WR3 output.

On the one hand, Moore has back-to-back solid target-earning seasons and should easily be the No. 1 option on the Bears. But, on the other hand, he has been on many teams where he hasn’t had much target competition, and it hasn’t worked out. Plus, Chicago should be a run-first unit again, and Justin Fields still has plenty of work to do as a passer.

Historically, we have seen run-first teams capable of supporting a clear-cut No. 1 option, but the most recent example is A.J. Brown in Tennessee. However, Brown’s talent profile is a level up from Moore's.

Moore will need multiple things to go his way to make us sorry for passing on him in drafts. His late-Round 4 ADP isn’t terrible, but it is a good area of the draft to mix up your exposures due to how flat things are at WR from pick 36 through 50.

Tier 7 – Tier 2 Arbitrage

DeAndre Hopkins | Cardinals

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B in a balanced offense

Hopkins only played in nine contests thanks to a suspension and injuries, but he demonstrated a high-end target earning ability once again and averaged 17.1 points per game.

We could still see the veteran wearing different colors before the season starts.

The 31-year-old veteran will battle Marquise Brown for targets if he remains in Arizona. Last season the two only joined forces for four contests, and Hopkins averaged a 23% target share and 40% of the air yards.

The Cardinals could start slow if Kyler Murray isn’t ready due to his late-season ACL recovery. And while there is some risk to Murray not playing if the Cardinals are losing and decide to tank for Caleb Williams, many things have to go against Murray for that to play out. If Murray surprises with an early return, the Cardinals' offense could be better than forecasted.

If things break perfectly for Hopkins, he could provide value similar to the Tier 2 options, but he comes with plenty of risks thanks to his age and team situation.

Keenan Allen | Chargers

• Target-earning profile: WR2-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR1-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B in a crowded quality pass offense

Allen only played in 10 games, but he delivered 16.8 points per game. If you remove the two games where he left before reaching a 40% route participation, he averaged 18.4 points with a 25% target share. In four full games with Mike Williams, he still delivered 17.8 per contest.

Allen will be 31.4 when the season starts, but he primarily works from the slot (65%). He isn’t the WR1 we once knew but has demonstrated a stabilized WR2 profile over the last three seasons, which could extend for another campaign.

First-round pick Quentin Johnston will try to carve out a role in the offense, but the Chargers are one of the most pass-happy teams in the league. With Kellen Moore dialing up the play calls, we could be looking at the No. 1 volume offense in the NFL.

The veteran isn’t a big-play threat, so he must run into some positive TD variance in the red zone to destroy his ADP.

Tier 8 – Young upside

Drake London | Falcons

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR1-worthy PFF rec grade, WR1-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B with Kyle Pitts in a run-first offense

London averaged only 10.7 points per game thanks to a league-low 49% drop back rate by the Falcons. However, his underlying data profile suggests he has WR1 talent.

Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke don’t exactly instill high confidence, but being as bad as Marcus Mariota was last year isn’t easy. Ridder is the upside option, but Heinicke provides a backstop that has supported WR2 production runs in Washington.

It also won’t be easy for the Falcons to repeat such a run-heavy campaign. While that will be the intention after adding Bijan Robinson in the first round, we could see them remain a run-focused team while passing slightly more.

Plus, things can change fast from year to year with coaches and play calling. London’s profile provides an opportunity to bet on the factors that correlate to more fantasy success and offer greater stability year over year.

Jerry Jeudy | Broncos

• Target-earning profile: WR2-worthy target earner, WR2-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B in a crowded balanced offense

Jeudy battled injuries again in 2022, but averaged 16.1 points with a 23% target share and accounted for 30% of the air yards in contests he didn’t leave with an injury.

Jeudy has struggled with health the past two years, but registered WR2 and WR3 worthy marks across almost all metrics. It would be great to see him fully healthy to know if the former first-round selection has the WR1 upside fantasy managers once envisioned.

The 24.4-year-old still has a chance to break out in Year 4, and if he doesn’t, his profile suggests a WR3 finish is likely his floor if healthy.

Tier 9 – Veteran WR3s

Mike Williams | Chargers

• Target-earning profile: backup-worthy target earner, WR1/2-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 2 or No. 3 in a pass-first quality offense

Williams jumped out to a hot start, pulling down three top-10 finishes over the first seven games with Allen out of the lineup. However, his 18% target share was still underwhelming, and a high-ankle sprain knocked him out until a Week 14 return.

In four games with Allen late in the season, he managed a 17% target share, which aligns with his underwhelming marks over the last seven campaigns.

The Chargers offer a pass-happy environment with a high-end passer in Justin Herbert but rookie Quentin Johnston will challenge for looks.

Williams wouldn’t be in the top-25 if not for his WR20 ADP on Underdog, influencing the rank.

Christian Kirk | Jaguars

• Target-earning profile: WR3-worthy target earner, WR2-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR3-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B battle with Ridley in a crowded quality pass-balanced offense

The 26.8-year-old grades out as a WR3 profile after a career-high 14.3 points per game with a 21% target share and PFF receiving grade (76.1).

Ridely adds another mouth to feed an already-crowded offense with Zay Jones and Evan Engram. However, the Jaguars' offense moved to a more pass-heavy approach down the stretch in 2022 and could finally take the reigns off of Trevor Lawrence in Year 3.

The best path to upside for Kirk will be an efficiency spike or a big step forward from the Jags' offense.

Terry McLaurin | Commanders

• Target-earning profile: WR2-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR2-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B battle with Dotson in a balanced offense

McLaurin got on a heater in from Week 7 to Week 13 with a 30% average target share and 15.7 points per game. However, Jahan Dotson got hot to close the year, and McLaurin finished the season with a 13.5-point average.

McLaurin offers a WR2 profile, but the Commanders have QB questions and three different weapons that went on hot streaks in 2022 with McLaurin, Dotson and Curtis Samuel.

Chris Godwin | Buccaneers

• Target-earning profile: WR2/3-worthy target earner, backup-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2/3-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B battle with Mike Evans in a questionable offense

Godwin delivered a 20% target share despite coming off of a late-season ACL tear in 2021. However, he will now face life without Tom Brady, with Baker Mayfield and Kyler Trask battling for the starting role.

With a low aDOT (6.0), Godwin feeds on big pass-play volume and the Buccaneers offense could be more run-centric in 2023. Additionally, his TD upside takes a hit if the offense struggles.

If Mayfield can pull a 2023 version of Geno Smith, Godwin could drastically outkick his ADP, but that isn’t an easy scenario to imagine for a WR2/WR3 talent profile.

Tyler Lockett | Seahawks

• Target-earning profile: WR3-worthy target earner, WR2-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 2 in a balanced quality offense

Lockett averaged 15.9 points per game over the first 15 weeks before a broken finger slowed him down late in the season. He has never been a target hog, but the 31-year-old has eclipsed 15 points per game in each of the last three seasons.

Smith-Njigba could keep Lockett’s target upside in check, but there is still room for the veteran to earn his typical 18-21% while challenging for the team lead in TDs.

Diontae Johnson | Steelers

• Target-earning profile: WR1-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3/4-worthy PFF rec grade, WR3-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 1 in a balanced offense

Johnson slipped from his career marks in YPRR, but still dominated targets and air yards in Kenny Pickett’s first season. After scoring five, seven and eight TDs in his first three campaigns, Johnson failed to find the endzone despite 86 receptions in 2022.

Johnson got highly unlucky in the TD department last year, which has him going far too late in drafts. You could argue for him three rounds earlier than his Round 7 price tag.

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Michael Pittman Jr. | Colts

• Target-earning profile: WR1/2-worthy target earner, WR1/2-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3/4-worthy PFF rec grade, backup-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 1 in a run-first offense

Pittman struggled in the efficiency department last season with Matt Ryan but could see a boost in downfield shots with rookie Anthony Richardson. The Colts could go with a run-heavy attack in 2023, and Pittman has a chance to act as the clear-cut No. 1, given the depth chart and his target-earning profile.

Brandon Aiyuk | 49ers

• Target-earning profile: WR2-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR2-worthy PFF rec grade, WR2-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B battle with Samuel in a crowded quality run-balanced offense

Aiyuk profiles much closer to Samuel than his WR31 price tag. While he hasn’t had a blowup season yet like Samuel, overall, their production (13.5 points per game) and underlying talent profiles are similar.

Aiyuk has the talent profile to make noise if Samuel, CMC or George Kittle miss time.

Marquise Brown | Cardinals

• Target-earning profile: WR2-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3/4-worthy PFF rec grade, WR3-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B in a balanced offense

Brown averaged a walloping 18.3 points with a 24% target share in the first six games before a foot injury sidelined him for five games. In four games with Hopkins, Brown averaged 12 points with a 20% target share.

Mike Evans | Buccaneers

• Target-earning profile: WR3/4-worthy target earner, WR1-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: WR3-worthy PFF rec grade, WR3-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: 1A/1B battle with Godwin in a questionable offense

Evans finished outside of the top 36 WRs in seven contests in 2022. However, he did provide two huge blowup spots of 30.3 and 48.7 points, which helped get his average to 15 points per game.

Unfortunately, we have watched the 30-year-old’s target-earning profile slip towards backup territory over the past three seasons, and the offense could opt for more running, with Mayfield or Trask likely starting.

Tier 10 – Upside WR3s with a wide-open path

• Treylon Burks | Titans – battled injuries throughout his rookie season but his 21% TPRR and 1.75 YPRR were in the WR3 range, which is a good sign in Year 1. The QB situation should be improved between a healthy Ryan Tannehill and second-rounder Will Levis, and the depth chart is wide open. Burks is a PRIORITY target at ADP.
• Kadarius Toney | Chiefs – could not secure significant playing time despite the Chiefs' needs at the position. However, he was electric on the field with a 23% TPRR. If he secures an every-down role, he has WR1 upside in a pass-first offense with Patrick Mahomes.

Tier 11 – Young Upside WR4s

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks – the ADP hasn’t cooled enough, but Smith-Njigba was the No. 1 graded prospect in the WR Rookie Super Model. He could force the Seahawks to pass more and utilize more three-WR sets.
• Jordan Addison | Vikings – the first-rounder should quickly secure the No. 2 role over K.J. Osborn. Addison was an early-breakout target hog who could surprise as a WR3 with upside in Year 1. 
• George Pickens | Steelers – delivered a backup-worthy target share (15%), but his 28% air yard share was WR2-worthy. Pickens is a blast to watch play but is slightly overpriced, given Johnson and Pat Freiermuth’s solid profiles and questions at QB.
• Rashod Bateman | Ravens – only ran 120 routes thanks to an injury but registered a 23% TPRR and 2.38 YPRR. Using the Rookie Super Model, he would have been the No. 2 prospect in this year’s class using the Rookie Super Model. Bateman is my favorite Ravens WR in drafts right now.
• Quentin Johnston | Chargers – Johnston offers a unique blend of downfield prowess and yards after the catch. He will battle Joshua Palmer for the No. 3 role and could surprise by surpassing one of Williams or Allen for the No. 2 role. If a starter goes down, Johnston could provide WR2 upside in a quality pass-first offense.
• Zay Flowers | Ravens – the first-round will battle for a starting spot, but the Ravens have been known to rotate skill players. Flowers has WR3 upside and is preferred over Beckham Jr.

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Tier 12 – Veteran WR4s

• Gabriel Davis | Bills – suffered an ankle injury early last season that caused him to miss Week 2, but averaged a 20% target share and 31% air yard share after the bye week. Could have a WR3-worthy skillset and operate as the No. 2 in a pass-first quality offense.
• Brandin Cooks | Cowboys – will be 30 this season, but has been around the WR/3 thresholds over the past two seasons. He should be the No. 2 in Dallas.
• Courtland Sutton | Broncos – profiles offers WR3-worthy talent with a 21% target share and 31% air yards share. Will battle it out in with multiple options in what could be a spread out balanced attack in Denver.
• Michael Thomas | Saints – hard to get excited about Thomas after another injury season. With his low aDOT and loss of explosiveness (14% explosive target rate) he will need a ton of targets to make us regret not investing. That isn’t likely with his borderline WR3 talent profile (19% target share and 18% air yards).

Tier 13 – Upside WR5s

• Jameson Williams | Lions – will miss the first six games; didn’t get to see much of Williams as a rookie since he was recovering from an ACL injury. However, he he was an 85th percentile in the WR Rookie Super Model. That would have been second-best this season. He has a good shot to be the No. 2 behind the Sun God and has WR2 upside late in the season.
• Elijah Moore | Browns – Year 2 was an unexpected face plant for a prospect that graded out highly in college and in Year 1. His 10% target share and 16% air yard share were terrible and his peripherals were just as bad. The comps for this pattern with Cordarrelle Patterson, Laviska Shenault Jr. and Devin Funchess, but the sample is too small to say anything definitively. Moore has at least flashed WR2-level talent already and could climb as high as the No. 1 for the Browns if everything clicks with Watson.
• Skyy Moore | Chiefs – limited to a lowly 30% route participation despite the underperforming WR room in 2022. His 19% TPRR and 70.0 PFF receiving grade were good enough to keep him on the radar especially given the Chiefs lack of offseason moves outside of a Round 2 selection on Rashee Rice.

Tier 14 – Veteran WR5s

• Odell Beckham Jr. | Ravens – more of a borderline WR3 profile at this point in his career and must battle Bateman and Flowers for routes in a balanced offense where Mark Andrews will be the undisputed No. 1 option. My least favorite Raven at ADP.
• Jakobi Meyers | Raiders – a near WR2 profile behind an aging alpha isn’t a bad thing to have as depth on your roster.
• Allen Lazard | Jets – offers a WR3-worthy profile who is a plus player inside the 10-yard line who could be the No. 2 on the Jets.
• Zay Jones | Jaguars – a WR3-worthy talent profile on an offense that could be going places in 2023. The offense is getting crowded with the addition of Ridley.
• Darnell Mooney | Bears – garnered a WR2 worthy target share and air yards before his injury. An underrated player but now must battle Moore on a run-first offense with QB questions.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster | Patriots – a backup-level target earner who doesn’t gobble up air yards. Smith-Schuster could be the Patriots best option, but that doesn’t mean he will suddenly become good again, 2018 was a long time ago.
• Tyler Boyd | Bengals – the 29-year-old has slipped over the last two years. Only garnered a 15% target share last season in games where one of Chase or Higgins were missing. Resides on one of the best pass-first offenses, making him a stack piece but don’t overpay for a backup-level talent, let it come to you.

Tier 15 – Rookie WR6s

• Jonathan Mingo | Panthers – didn’t score great in the WR Rookie Super Model but one of his comps was fellow Ole Miss alumn, D.K. Metcalf. The Panthers have a clear runway to the No. 1 spot. The second-rounder and Bryce Young – the best passer in this class – will look to establish early rapport.
• Rashee Rice | Chiefs – The Chiefs have struggled to evaluate collegiate WRs outside of Tyreek Hill and Rice was a subpar prospect in the Rookie Super Model but garnered second-round capital on an elite offense where he will have a shot to challenge for a starting role.
• Jalin Hyatt | Giants – had first-round buzz ahead of the draft but feel to Round 3. Hyatt has game-changing speed and could immediately challenge for the No. 1 WR role as a deep threat. He will need to prove he can play on the outside without the protection of off-ball alignments to earn an everydown role.
• Jayden Reed | Packers – sliding too far past the rest of these options in drafts considering how much more important talent is than landing spot. Reed grades out ahead of Mingo, Rice and Hyatt after going in Round 2. However, concerns about the QB have him going 20 to 40 picks later. Reed is a better prospect than Romeo Doubs and played outside in college – he will challenge for more than slot reps. He is a primary target late in drafts.

Tier 16 – Veteran WR6s

• Nico Collins | Texans – flashed WR3-worthy TPRR and WR1-worthy air yards share and the Texans depth chart is wide open. Could be the No. 1 option for newcomer C.J. Stroud and surprise with WR3 upside.
• Romeo Doubs | Packers – flashed for moments as a rookie but never put it all together. Doubs will battle second-rounder Jayden Reed for routes.
• Michael Gallup | Cowboys – had a disaster season coming off of a late-2021 knee injury, but exhibited WR3 traits early in his career. If back to form, could press Cooks for the No. 2 role in a quality offense.
• Donovan Peoples-Jones | Browns – offers a backup target-earning profile but has some air yards goodness that can pop from time to time.
• D.J. Chark | Panthers – flashed WR2 skills for a brief moment in Year 2 but hasn’t done so since. Still has deep threat ability though with 29% of targets coming 20-plus yards downfield.

Tier 17 – Young WR7s

• Alec Pierce | Colts – didn’t check any major boxes as a prospect or as a rookie, but has second-round capital and will battle for the No. 2 role.
• Rashid Shaheed | Saints – undrafted free agent who flashed with a 2.59 YPRR.
• Marvin Mims | Broncos – graded out as the best non-Round 1 WR in the Super Model and Sean Payton is looking to shakeup the offense. The WR room is crowded but Mims is great on deep crossers, where Tyler Lockett used to make his money with Russell Wilson.
• Rondale Moore | Cardinals – flashed some WR3 traits but wasn’t able to stay on the field (again) in 2022. The starting No. 3 option for the Cardinals to start the season and could gain ground if Hopkins moves.
• Josh Downs | Colts – was a strong collegiate producer who fell to Round 3 in the NFL draft. He should operate from the slot and challenge for the No. 2 spot in terms of targets, but the Colts will be run heavy and might not play that much 11 personnel.
• Cedric Tilliman | Browns – the third-rounder will battle Peoples-Jones and Moore for snaps after Cooper.
• John Metchie III | Texans – the 2022 second-rounder will challenge Collins and Robert Woods and rookie Tank Dell for playing time. The depth chart in Houston is wide open.
• Tyquan Thornton | Patriots – performed sub-optimally in 2022 but there isn’t much talent outside in New England, leaving the door open for a starting role.
• Wan’Dale Robinson | Giants – recovering from a Week 11 ACL injury but currently expected to be ready for Week 1. Flashed a WR2-worthy TPRR and should be the starting slot WR as the season progresses.

Tier 18 – Veteran WR7s

• Isaiah Hodgins | Giants – a backkup profile that will battle for starting reps in New York.
• Tim Patrick | Broncos – a WR3 profile that could surprise by capturing a starting role if Sutton falters and Mims isn’t ready.
• Chase Claypool | Bears – a former WR2 profile who had a forgettable 2023 season. Cold be the No. 2 in a run-first attack.
• Curtis Samuel | Commanders – was the No. 1 option early last year before and could provide needed bye-week production and spike weeks for best ball.
• Adam Thielen | Vikings – declining veteran going far too early in drafts. Theilen could provide some early season magic, but his price tag should be Round 15, not 12.
• Robert Woods | Texans – still hanging around WR3-level thresholds and just got paid by Houston. A favorite to begin the season as a starter and is free.
• Mecole Hardman | Jets – won’t play a fulltime role but could offer big-play spike weeks as a move-around gadget option.
• Corey Davis | Jets – could end up as the primary option in three WR sets over Hardman who is more of a gadget player.

Glossary:

Age = player’s age when the season starts in September

PPR/Gm = points per reception; points per game

Rush share = player’s share of rushing attempts in regular season games played

SDD = short down and distance (less than 3 yards to go on 2nd, 3rd and 4th down)

LDD = long down and distance (3-plus yards to go on 3rd or 4th down)

MTF = missed tackles forced rate

YCO = average yards after contact

EXP/Att = 10-plus yard rushing attempts per attempt

RR/DB = routes run per dropback (also known as route participation)

Target share = player’s targets divided by team pass attempts in regular season games played

TPRR = targets per route run

YPRR = yards per route run

aDOT = average depth of target

Air yards = aDOT multiplied by targets

Air yards share = share of team’s air yards

WOPR = weighted opportunity rating that combines the share of team targets and air yards (1.5*target share)+(0.7*air yards share)

Deep = targets of 20-plus yards

YAC = yards after the catch

EXP/Tgt = 15-plus yard receptions per target

Team Proj Rush Att/Gm = projected regulation rushing attempts for team

Team Proj DB/Gm = projected regulation dropbacks for team

Top 48 RBs = number of RBs from team going inside the top 48

Top 36 WRs = number of WRs from team going inside the top 36

Top 12 TEs = number of TEs from team going inside the top 12

Team Proj Wins = current win totals from BetMGM

Close = score within three points

Trailing = behind by four-plus points

Leading = ahead by four-plus points

RB1-worthy = top 12

RB2-worthy = 13 to 24

RB3-worthy = 25 to 36