Fantasy Football Rankings. Dwain McFarland's Top 150 for 2024.

With the Super Bowl only days away, I've pulled together all of the data from 2023 with an eye toward the 2024 fantasy football season. These top-150 rankings are still a rough draft, as a lot can happen between now and August, and they should be considered only a starting point.

As I complete more research, and we reach critical offseason milestones like free agency and the NFL Draft, I will update these ranks.

Looking for even more rankings? Be sure to check out Matthew Freedman's initial top 150 to see where him and Dwain agree and disagree!

Early Top 150 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts – QB2

Hurts delivered 22.4 fantasy points per game (PPG) in 2023 and has eclipsed 21.0 PPG in each of the last three seasons. The fifth-year QB is surrounded by three high-end weapons in A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, and Hurts now has a pass-friendly offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. The dual-threat QB will have a shot at career-highs in passing attempts, yards, and TDs in 2024. I currently have Hurts ranked as my No. 19 overall player, which is 16 spots ahead of his current Underdog ADP.

Anthony Richardson – QB6

Richardson only played two full games in 2023 before a Week 5 shoulder injury cut his rookie season short. The sample size is small, but Richardson lived up to his billing as a premium rushing QB, handling 26% of the designed run attempts in two healthy outings and averaging 24.5 fantasy points.

In this small sample, Richardson led all QBs in points per dropback (0.73), flashing his upside to push for an elite spot alongside other dual-threat QBs like Josh Allen (0.63), Jalen Hurts (0.61) and Lamar Jackson (0.62). This ranking felt aggressive when I plotted out my list, but fellow drafters are already keen on Richardson, as he's currently being drafted as the QB6 off the board.

Joe Burrow – QB7

Burrow started the 2023 season slowly, averaging only 8.8 fantasy points per game over the first month as he nursed a calf injury from training camp. However, Burrow came to life as he regained his health, averaging 22.2 PPG from Weeks 5 to 10 before suffering a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11.

We could see the Bengals part ways with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd this offseason, so monitoring how the WR depth chart shakes out behind Ja’Marr Chase will be important. Still, it's hard to imagine many scenarios where we let a proven producer like Burrow slip outside the top-eight QBs come August. Drafters are allowing Burrow to fall into the seventh round of Underdog drafts right now, which feels like a bargain.

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Kyler Murray – QB12

Murray averaged 18.7 PPG in eight starts last year after returning from his late-season 2022 ACL injury. Heading into 2024, things are looking up for former No. 1 overall draft pick. The Cardinals own a top-four 2024 NFL Draft pick and could drastically improve their WR corps by drafting one of the most lauded WR prospects in 15 years in Marvin Harrison Jr.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) is forced out of bounds by Seattle Seahawks linebacker Darrell Taylor (52) during the fourth quarter at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Jan. 7, 2024. Photo Credit: Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

If the Cardinals were to add an early-round WR like Harrison to go with a blossoming Trey McBride, Murray could challenge for 4,000 passing yards. The last time he did that was in 2020, when he finished as the No. 2 QB in fantasy with 24.9 PPG. If you're drafting early best ball rosters on Underdog, Murray is an ADP value to target right now. If Arizona does end up adding Harrison, expect Murray’s ADP to skyrocket.

Jayden Daniels – QB15

I honestly don’t know much about Daniels right now, as I haven’t gone through my rookie evaluation process just yet. However, I do know that he's likely to be an early first-round selection in the NFL Draft based on the latest mocks, and Daniels offers the dual-threat upside that makes fantasy QBs go boom.

Daniels ran for 94.5 yards and 0.8 TDs per game in his final season at LSU, and he was no slouch in the passing department, either, having averaged 318 yards and 3.3 TDs per contest last year. Daniels is currently being drafted late as the QB18 on Underdog, so now is the time to draft him before he picks up steam.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey – RB1

McCaffrey dominated Fantasyland with 24.7 PPG in 2023. Though he'll be 28 years old by the time the 2024 season begins, McCaffrey showed no signs of wear and tear. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry with 16% of his attempts having gone for 10-plus yards last year, well above the NFL average of 10%. Even if CMC does lose some of his juice in the run game, he still plays on an elite offense where scoring opportunities should be abundant, and his pass-catching prowess helps keep his weekly floor high.

Breece Hall – RB2

Like the rest of the Jets, Hall had to suffer through a terrible QB rotation after the loss of Aaron Rodgers in Week 1. However, after ramping up from his 2022 ACL injury, Hall took over the backfield starting in Week 5. Over the final 13 games of the year as the lead back, Hall averaged 19.9 PPG, dominated 67% of the rushing attempts, and saw a juicy 18% target share.

The third-year RB will be another year removed from his knee injury, and the return of Rodgers should upgrade the offense as a whole even if he isn’t 100% back to his former MVP form. If there's a RB that can catch CMC in fantasy next year, it's Hall as long as the rest of the Jets' offense cooperates.

Bijan Robinson – RB3

Robinson didn’t live up to his rookie hype, but that had more to do with Arthur Smith than a lack of talent. Robinson averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per attempt, and 14% of his carries went for 10-plus yards. He was also a threat in the passing game, garnering the third-best RB target share at 18%. Unfortunately, Smith only fed Bijan 45% of the rushing attempts and only gave him 30% of the carries inside the five-yard line.

The Falcons still have QB questions heading into 2024, but at least Smith is gone. Look for their new offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, to get the ball to his best players. Robinson hails from the Sean McVay coaching tree, where multiple backs like Todd Gurley, Darrell Henderson, and Kyren Williams all found fantasy stardom with bell cow usage.

Kyren Williams – RB5

No other ranking scares me more than this one. Williams was an efficient RB and dominated the Rams' backfield in 2023 when healthy, but it's hard to imagine him ever approaching 21.4 PPG again. Since 2011, there have been six RBs taken after Round 2 in the NFL Draft who went on to deliver 20-plus fantasy PPG in one of their first two seasons.

• Devonta Freeman: 21.8 (2015)
• David Johnson: 25.8 (2016)
• Alvin Kamara: 23.2 (2018)
• Kareem Hunt: 20.9 (2018)
• James Conner: 21.5 (2018)
• Kyren Williams: 21.4 (2023)

While all of these RBs remained fantasy-relevant in the years after their initial breakout season, only Kamara performed at high-end RB1 levels in the following two years with 21.5 PPG. Freeman was also respectable at 16.2 PPG (mid-range RB1 production), but Johnson (13.3), Hunt (13.1) and Conner (13.7) all took giant steps back down to mid-range to low-end RB2 status.

Detroit Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone tackles L.A. Rams running back Kyren Williams during the first half of the NFC wild-card game at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan, 14, 2024. Photo Credit: Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

We could argue that Hunt’s fall wasn’t related to performance on the field but rather his release from Kansas City, which landed him in a timeshare with another elite RB in Nick Chubb. But even if we exclude Hunt, it would've been a 50/50 proposition with Kamara and Freeman producing as mid-range RB1s but Johnson and Conner greatly disappointing following those career years.

Williams is in my top-six RBs for now, but I realize that he comes with significant risk. He could quickly move down the rankings if the Rams invest significantly in a free agent or rookie RB this offseason.

De’Von Achane – RB7

Achane only saw 102 rush attempts as a rookie, but he captured the fantasy hearts and imaginations of fantasy managers. The dynamic rookie led the NFL with 7.9 yards per carry and led all RBs in runs of 10-plus yards 22% on his way to an astounding 17.6 PPG. The Dolphins project to continue using a committee backfield next season, but the sky's the limit for Achane even in a limited role.

Alvin Kamara – RB12

Kamara had a very respectable 17.5 PPG last season, but fantasy drafters are letting him sleep, currently going 58th overall on Underdog as the RB15. While he will be 29 years old next season and has lost some rushing efficiency, Kamara remained elite as a receiver out of the backfield.

Dec 21, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

No other RB with 200-plus routes run came near Kamara’s 32% targets per route run (TPRR) in 2023. High-end pass-catching RBs like Kamara can age more gracefully than between-the-tackle pounders, which is why I am still three spots ahead of ADP on him heading into 2024.

Aaron Jones – RB16

A.J. Dillon is set to hit free agency, which could finally open up the door for an every-down role for Jones in 2024. Yes, he will be almost 30 years old when the 2024 season starts, but the veteran RB still looked good in 2023, averaging 4.5 yards per tote and registering a 24% TPRR. If the Packers do give Jones a feature role, he could still have RB1 upside in an offense that suddenly looks extremely potent given how Jordan Love finished the season.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson – WR3

Jefferson would be the WR1 if we knew for sure that Kirk Cousins was going to stay in Minnesota. As it stands, with a question mark at QB, there's enough risk to push Jefferson below CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill for me.

If Cousins were to go elsewhere in free agency, Jefferson would drop below Chase in my rankings, especially if Tee Higgins were to leave Cincinnati as well. All of these aforementioned names are high-end WR1s, but QB play matters when breaking ties, and there's a possibility that Jefferson could have the worst QB among this group in 2024.

A.J. Brown – WR6

Brown garnered an eye-popping 30% target share in 2023 despite playing alongside talented pass-catchers in DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. With Kellen Moore arriving in Philadelphia, we should see more passing, and more importantly, a less stagnant offense.

Nov 20, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) is unable to make the catch against Kansas City Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (38) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The Eagles ranked 29th in the percentage of plays that used pre-snap shifts and motion (39%), an important wrinkle that helped unlock dynamic offenses like that of Dolphins, 49ers ,and Lions. However, Moore used pre-snap shifts and motion at the second-highest rate with the Chargers in 2023 behind only the 49ers, so look for a revamped Philadelphia passing attack designed to give playmakers an edge when the ball is snapped next season.

Puka Nacua – WR7

The fifth-round rookie WR erupted for 17.6 PPG in his first season in the NFL despite having had to battle Cooper Kupp for targets. Based on data since 2011, all of Nacua’s underlying metrics also check out. His closest rookie comps include some elite company based on a composite score using target share, yards per route run (YPRR), and Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade.

• Odell Beckham Jr.
• Justin Jefferson
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Mike Evans
• Tyreek Hill
• A.J. Brown

As high as I am on Nacua, I'm actually below current consensus ADP on Underdog. Nacua is being drafted as the WR6 off the board right now, and it's hard to knock that. Barring injury, it's hard to see Nacua falling out of the first round of 2024 fantasy football drafts.

Rashee Rice – WR11

Rice started his rookie campaign slowly but came alive down the stretch, eventually ascending to WR1 status after securing a featured role and consistent snaps. From Week 14 through the AFC Conference Championship game, Rice averaged 17.6 PPG with a 25% target share.

The one concern with Rice is his low air yards. He saw 28% of his targets come behind the line of scrimmage, which was an even higher rate than Deebo Samuel (25%), so Rice will need to continue developing the rest of his game.

Still, Rice’s closest comps based on data since 2011 are Percy Harvin, Kupp, and Deebo, which makes it hard to knock him too much. Plus, Rice's 85.1 PFF receiving grade, 26% TPRR, and 2.39 YPRR were all WR1-worthy based on the data since 2011.

Marvin Harrison Jr. – WR15

This ranking feels super aggressive, but I'm leaning into the market until I finish my rookie evaluations. In the simplest terms, Harrison is one of the best WR prospects that we've seen in years, and he has a clear path to land with a good QB in Arizona at fourth overall in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Drafters on Underdog are betting on him to become an immediate fantasy WR1 like Jefferson and Chase did as rookies. I'll be revisiting Harrison's ranking soon, but for now, if you want him, be prepared to draft him fairly early in 2024.

Keenan Allen – WR20

Underdog drafters are allowing Allen to fall to WR24, which seems late for a player who averaged 21.1 PPG in 2023. Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman taking over in Los Angeles will likely result in a more run-heavy offense, but Mike Williams could be a cap casualty, leaving Allen as the undisputed No. 1 WR with a high-end QB in Justin Herbert. Only Tyreek Hill had a higher target share than Allen’s 32% in 2023, and Allen could once again be a target machine next year.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce – TE2

I'm trying this on for size, but typing out TE2 next to Kelce’s name isn't easy. I have Kelce and Sam LaPorta ranked very closely, but I ultimately decided to rank LaPorta No. 1 for two reasons:

• Underdog drafters are taking LaPorta 14 draft spots ahead of Kelce.
• Kelce will be 35 years old next season while LaPorta will only be 24 years old.

Having said all of that, this is still a risky ranking. Kelce is a proven commodity and showed us in the playoffs that he's not quite done just yet. He's averaged 22.7 PPG in the Chiefs' three playoff games thus far with a 30% target share, so his quiet end to the regular season could've been more due to the offense's overall struggles than a personal decline.

While I'm on board (for now) taking LaPorta as the first TE off the board in 2024, Kelce’s ADP represents significant value. I have the veteran TE ranked 11 spots ahead of ADP at 34th overall.

Trey McBride – TE4

After taking over the lead role in Week 10, McBride was one of the best TEs in fantasy football with an average of 14.8 PPG. From then on, he carved out an 86% route participation rate and garnered a mind-boggling 28% target share.

The former second-round NFL Draft pick has the makings of an elite TE. His 26% TPRR, 2.22 YPRR, and 85.9 PFF receiving grade make him a top-three TE based on data since 2011, and McBride’s closest comps include fantasy stars like Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, and Zach Ertz.

My TE4 ranking on McBride aligns with his current positional ADP on Underdog, but I have him ranked 10 spots ahead of his current overall ADP at 46th overall.

Brock Bowers – TE6

Based on my early research, Bowers is a better TE prospect than Dalton Kincaid was last year, so I placed him in the same tier as Kincaid for now. However, if Bowers were to land with a team that already has an incumbent TE starter, the rookie would likely move down my rankings for 2024.

Darren Waller – TE15

Waller has burned many fantasy managers over the last few seasons, but it's hard to ignore the fact that he has played well when healthy. Last year, Waller’s underlying talent profile still graded as a low-end TE1 with a 21% target share, 1.55 YPRR, and a 73.1 PFF receiving grade. Health will be key, but at a vastly lower ADP than last year at TE18 right now, Waller could provide a solid return on investment with the potential to finish 2024 as a top-12 fantasy TE if healthy.