I’m not breaking any news by saying that football has multiple levels to evaluate. However, the casual fantasy manager usually cares about only a couple of them.
The most obvious level is a player’s talent. Whether it's through spreadsheets or film, we all have a process to determine the strengths and weaknesses of fantasy options. But sometimes individual skills don’t carry as much weight in a team environment. An elite QB with subpar WRs may fall short of expectations (see Patrick Mahomes, 2023). However, we should take an even further step back when evaluating situations.
Play-callers and their influence have become a larger part of the conversation over the last few years. Their tendencies shape how our skill players are deployed week in and week out. And this year’s coaching cycle has brought new and old faces to offensive units we're preparing to target in drafts. So, to help add another layer of information, I broke down three of this year’s new coordinators and what we can expect for their squads.
New-Look Offenses in 2024
Chicago Bears
- New OC/Play-Caller: Shane Waldron
Waldron got a pass from fantasy managers since he worked with Sean McVay. We also saw Geno Smith revive his career under Waldron in ’22. But after watching the Seahawks last season, most would attribute their most recent playoff berth to Dave Canales, the QB coach at the time. Regardless, there are some components to Waldron’s philosophy that have us excited to watch the Bears offense.
- Early-Down Neutral Pass Rate (2021-23): 54.8% (8th)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.9 (12th)
An easy way to describe Seattle’s passing game is aggressive. Russell Wilson averaged a whopping 9.9 air yards per attempt during his final season there. Smith’s 8.2-yard aDOT ranked in the top 12. Caleb Williams’ 76.0% adjusted completion percentage is the second-highest in the class. He also had no problem working the intermediate and deep areas of the field on in-breaking/timing routes.
With target hogs such as DJ Moore (28.5% target share in ’23) and Keenan Allen (24.4%) at his disposal, Williams has the arm strength and talent to break Chicago's single-season record for passing yards set by Erik Kramer back in 1995. But he may need above-average efficiency from his WRs to do it.
- Middle-of-the-Field Throw Rate (2021-2023): 41.0% (31st)
- Plays per Game: 58.7 (32nd)
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate: 38.6% (27th)
Let’s combine two ideas: throwing farther downfield and (primarily) targeting the perimeter. On the one hand, with an accurate QB, you open yourself up to high-end efficiency. Geno was top 12 in EPA per Play in back-to-back seasons. However, the longer-developing route concepts and poor O-line play had Smith’s pressure rates in the top 10. And with a static offense that was less reliant on motion, he was top-seven or worse in turnover-worthy play rate.
Jun 5, 2024; Lake Forest, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) passes the ball during the team's minicamp at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Fortunately, Williams is no stranger to creating out of structure, and the Bears' offensive line had the fifth-best pass-block win rate in ’23. Plus, adding rookie WR Rome Odunze to the Moore-Allen duo puts Chicago’s trio well ahead of the Seahawks’ pass-catchers. But before we crown them all (and Caleb) top 12 assets at their position, Waldron’s play-calling around the goal line should give us some pause.
- 2023: -6.6% (red-zone pass rate over expectation)
- 2022: -1.0%
- 2021: -0.3%
After adding strong rushing talents in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, Waldron looked to the ground as a means to punctuate Seattle’s drives. Their passing rates dropped as the backfield talent increased. Now in Chicago, a cadre of D’Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson lends credence to the idea of a balanced offensive approach.
Swift’s ability to create can keep Williams on schedule. And Herbert or Johnson can move the chains in short-yardage situations. With Chicago’s defense ending ’23 as a top-three unit, conservative play calls to close out games should be in the range of outcome for Williams in Year 1.
Washington Commanders
- New OC/Play-Caller: Kliff Kingsbury
I’ll get this out of the way right now: Kingsbury’s schematic skill set isn’t limited to the Air Raid system. He brought some elements of it to the Cardinals, but don’t expect four verts and downfield shots from Jayden Daniels every snap. However, Kingsbury on the headset does give Daniels a leg up in his rookie year.
- Time per Play (2019-2022): 38.0 seconds (1st)
- Early-Down Neutral Pass Rate: 56.4% (6th)
- Shotgun Snap Rate: 86.3% (2nd)
- Two-TE Formation Rate: 25.5% (13th)
Arizona had the fastest-paced offense during the Kingsbury-Kyler Murray era at a blistering 65.3 plays per game. For reference, Washington was among or sat just outside the bottom 12 in pace and plays per game. Combined with the Commanders' preference to pass in long down-and-distance situations (average +2.7% PROE), WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson stand to benefit from the personnel change.
Despite being the team’s WR1, McLaurin has eclipsed 130 targets just once. Meanwhile, one-fifth of Dotson’s looks have been on downfield shots. Kingsbury’s ability to blend play-action concepts (13th-highest usage rate) into the passing game will keep Daniels efficient while serving up high-percentage passes to his top two options. However, the offense’s potential doesn’t rest solely on the aerial attack.
The Cardinals generated the third-most rushing EPA during Kingsbury’s time in Arizona despite the fact that not a single starting lineman earned a blocking grade over 85.0 from PFF. Regardless, the Cardinals’ gap scheme style of running aligns with what Brian Robinson Jr. learned at Alabama.
Plus, Kingsbury’s use of pistol formations, two-TE sets and TEs in linemen slots pre-snap kept the ground game moving. So with rookie TE Ben Sinnott’s ability to function as a receiver and pass-blocker, every level of the Commanders’ offense has a chance to excel in 2024.
Atlanta Falcons
- New OC/Play-Caller: Zac Robinson
Robinson is yet another Sean McVay acolyte to ascend the NFL coaching ranks. The former Rams passing game coordinator/QB coach gets his first OC post in Atlanta with HC Raheem Morris (L.A.’s previous DC). Even better, the Falcons will have Kirk Cousins, who became Mr. "You Like That" under McVay in Washington. So, the familiarity is strong from top to bottom, and the underlying trends support the idea of an easy transition for Cousins coming from Minnesota.
- Early-Down Passing Rate (2022-2023): 53.1% (LAR), 56.1% (MIN)
- Pace: 40.5 seconds, 39.7 seconds
- Plays per Game: 63.5, 64.8
McVay may be the architect, but Robinson acknowledged his predecessor, Kevin O'Connell (current HC for the Vikings), as one of his mentors while learning the job. Both passing games are similar in terms of throw rate and pace of play, which bodes well for WR Drake London. At 6.9 targets per game in ’23, the Falcons’ WR1 was still behind Puka Nacua (9.4) and Cooper Kupp (7.9). The expected bump in volume will be nice, along with the likely change in route concepts.
- Play Action Rate: 15.4% (12th)
- Middle of the Field (MotF) Throw Rate: 45.2% (24th)
- Air yards per attempt: 7.4 (24th)
Robinson’s game plans leveraged the route runners at his disposal along with an above-average processor under center. Matthew Stafford’s average time to throw (2.59 seconds) has been a top-10 mark in consecutive years. And while L.A. favored boundary throws (low MotF throw rate), Stafford’s 7.4 air yards per attempt allowed for high-percentage passes for his WRs.
Oct 8, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) runs after a catch against the Houston Texans in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Per Reception Perception, London found the most success in the intermediate area of the field on out routes. Other timing concepts (e.g. digs, curls) are also in his toolbox. It’ll take no time for Cousins to link up with a WR often compared to Kupp during the draft process. But the benefits aren’t limited to London.
Of course, TE Kyle Pitts will get his. A simple metric to follow for TE production is their route rate, and longtime Rams TE Tyler Higbee has ranked 10th or better in routes per dropback the last three seasons. Plus, Pitts has the highest target rate of any TE lined up as the WR1 on the outside. His size and ability to win against man coverage (seventh in YPRR against man in ’23) would allow Robinson to create unique personnel packages. But the ancillary WRs are also in play.
The Rams had three receivers out on a route at the highest rate in the league under Robinson (92.8%). With this in mind, a Darnell Mooney resurgence becomes possible. Mooney also excelled on intermediate patterns. We haven’t seen consistent production from the Chicago cast-off since ’21, but with Robinson’s use of multiple receivers and pre-snap motion to elicit information about the defense, Mooney and Rondale Moore out of the slot become interesting options late in drafts.
