There really isn’t a worse feeling in fantasy football than simply being straight up wrong about a player.

You made the decision to draft them with confidence and accurately predicted their role … only for everything to still go to shit even without the built-in excuse of an injury or suspension.

Let’s face it: The primary goal of fantasy football is to own bragging rights over your friends, so having NOBODY to blame other than the man in the mirror for your losses objectively sucks.

Of course, players who have struggled to get anything going through four weeks of action won’t necessarily continue to dud throughout the rest of 2023. Accessing what exactly has gone wrong can help determine whether we should be looking at these disappointments as buy-low candidates, or if continuing to simply cry and sulk is probably the best move.

Without further ado: The biggest fantasy football disappointments through the first four weeks of 2023 –— not including players who were simply injured and physically unable to even suit up.

Quarterback

Joe Burrow, Bengals

  • Preseason ADP: QB6
  • Current rank: QB31

Burrow has clearly been heavily impacted by an ongoing calf injury despite not actually missing any game action through four weeks.

With that being considered: Holy hell this Bengals offense has been atrocious.

  • Points per game: 12.3 (No. 31)
  • EPA per play: -0.214 (No. 28)
  • Yards per play: 4 (No. 32)
  • Yards per pass attempt: 4.8 (No. 32)

The corresponding fantasy production has been rather abysmal for pretty much everyone involved, with Burrow himself literally scoring *Johnny Manziel meme* zero TDs in all but one game this season.

It’s hard to imagine things remaining THIS bad as Burrow (hopefully) gets healthier, but expecting a full return to 2021 and 2022 heights might be wishful thinking in the near term — especially with overqualified No. 2 WR Tee Higgins (fractured rib) now banged up as well.

Back-to-back theoretically winnable matchups — when healthy — against the Cardinals and Seahawks are followed by a Week 7 bye and then TOUGH spots against the beastly 49ers and Bills defenses.

Sadly, there appears to be a decent chance we don’t see Burrow and company truly humming again until mid-November at the earliest.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

  • Preseason ADP: QB8
  • Current rank: QB19

T-Law has been a regular victim in my weekly “Sheesh Report,” which breaks down all the near misses and close calls from the previous week of action.

Here’s the thing: The sheeshes haven’t had anything to do with the 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick. Rather, Lawrence has regularly been victimized by his receivers either 

Trevor Lawrence

Sep 17, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) throws a pass against Kansas City Chiefs during the second quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

Overall, Lawrence joins C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow as the only QBs to have nine passes dropped this season. One of just five QBs to lose more than 60 potential passing yards directly because of drops: The Jaguars simply haven’t done a great job helping out their QB through four weeks of action.

PFF grades aren’t the end-all-be-all when evaluating a football player, but it’s telling that Lawrence’s 84.1 passing grade trails only Tua Tagovailoa among 36 qualified QBs. It’s not a given that Calvin Ridley (league-high 4 drops), the offensive line and the playcalling all suddenly become elite overnight; just realize this is the sort of slow start that *should* correct itself as more time goes on.

That time probably won’t be this Sunday in Buffalo, but it’d make a lot of sense if Week 6’s home matchup against the Colts — who the Jags scored a season-high 31 points against in Week 1 — brings out a true get-right spot for this passing game.

Honorable mentions:

Giants QB Daniel Jones (QB12 ADP, QB24 current rank): The Giants boast the league’s second-worst mark in pressure rate allowed (46.9%), which has led to Daniel Jones taking a ridiculous 22 sacks through four weeks — more than anyone not named Sam Howell.

These haven’t all been Jones’ fault, but he’s also the league’s fourth-worst QB in percentage of pressures that have turned into sacks. Throw in a league-high six interceptions, and pretty much the only thing even somewhat saving Jones is his ever-robust rushing floor (43.3 yards per game). Surely the schedule will add some relief soon … OH MY GOD NO.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (QB13 ADP, QB22 current rank): Dak’s most efficient games of the season have oddly come in his two toughest on-paper matchups against the Jets and Patriots. Still, career-low marks in yards per attempt (6.7) and rush attempts per game (2.8) isn’t exactly the sort of combo fantasy managers were hoping for.

Throw in a beyond-elite defense that has helped lock things up early in three of four games this season, and it’s no wonder Dak hasn’t exactly been booming inside the league’s fifth-most run-heavy offense in terms of raw pass-play rate. Incoming matchups against the 49ers, Chargers, Rams and Eagles *should* at least be more competitive.

Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions

  • Preseason ADP: RB9
  • Current rank: RB32

The lack of usage for Gibbs has led to fantasy managers clawing their eyes out in two of our four Thursday night contests thus far. Overall, the rookie is just the RB27 in expected PPR points per game (12.3), which isn’t all that far removed from backup Steelers RB Jaylen Warren (11.3).

Yes, the Lions are sitting pretty at 3-1 while averaging the eighth-most points per game in the NFL (26.5). There’s no reason to criticize head coach Dan Campbell or offensive coordinator Ben Johnson for continuing to perform their respective jobs at very high levels.

Also yes, it’s reasonable for fantasy managers to be all kinds of depressed about the early-season production here given:

  1. Gibbs was regularly taken off the board in the third round.
  2. Presumed 1B Lions RB David Montgomery has already scored five TDs and is dominating overall utilization.
  3. Gibbs’ early touch counts pale in comparison to fellow recent first-round picks at the position.
  4. The rookie has made the most out of his opportunities, posting top-20 marks in yards per carry (4.6, 12th), yards after contact per attempt (3.1, 16th) and missed tackles forced (0.21, 19th) while also earning targets at the fifth-highest rate in the league (27.9%).

Despite these early-season struggles, I believe Gibbs is a great buy-low candidate at the moment. His early-season role has admittedly been meh, but the Lions’ willingness to hand him a robust 17 carries on a 60% snap rate with Montgomery sidelined in Week 3 shows that they don’t necessarily view the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 12 overall pick as a one-dimensional pass-down back.

This Lions offense is really good, they have run the ball more than anyone other than the 49ers and Gibbs has proven to be good at football at the professional level: At some point these variable are going to collide in the favor of the Lions’ rookie talent, even if Montgomery continues to vulture everything in sight along the way.

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Najee Harris, Steelers

  • Preseason ADP: RB14
  • Current rank: RB34

As someone who drafted Jalen Warren more than any other RB in best ball land throughout the offseason: I would love to sit here and point out that Harris has been playing terribly and deserves to be benched for his second-year backup.

But that’s simply not what is going on. Harris has actually been playing the best football of his career as a pure rusher:

The main two problems in fantasy land are the utter lack of scoring opportunities inside of this abysmally schemed Matt Canada-led “attack,” as well as the Warren holding a commanding 22 to eight lead in the target department.

Overall, Harris has gone from the RB2 (19.7) in expected PPR points per game as a rookie, to the RB12 (14.9) in 2022, to somehow just the RB43 (8.4) through four weeks of 2023.

One could blame Harris for his past underachieving negatively influencing his present day workload; just realize the brutal lack of production here is far more so due to the enhanced usage of Warren, poor performance of PFF’s sixth-lowest-graded offensive line in run blocking and the Kenny Pickett experience than a true indictment on the third-year Alabama product.

Sadly, it’s unclear if this offensive environment as a whole is going to be fixed for the better anytime soon. Pickett (knee) has avoided serious injury, but also isn’t guaranteed to, you know, be better moving forward. Throw in head coach Mike Tomlin’s confirmation that nothing is changing at offensive coordinator or with playcalling responsibilities, and expecting a turnaround from Harris falls more into the “hope” than “expectation” department.

Honorable mention:

Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson (RB10 ADP, RB23 rank): Fantasy managers expected Stevenson to lose some rushing work to Ezekiel Elliott, but they probably didn’t expect the ex-Cowboys RB to hold such a commanding edge in the yards per carry department (4.1 vs. 2.7).

Throw in career-worst marks in yards per route run (0.85) and PFF receiving grade (51.7), and it’s not exactly easy to see a MAJOR shift in fantasy performance from Stevenson without an unexpected boom from Mac Jones and the league’s 30th-ranked scoring offense.

Jets RB Breece Hall (RB13 ADP, RB31 rank): Has been largely awesome with his opportunities; the Jets are just (understandably) being careful about putting too much on the second-year talent’s plate so soon into the year after 2022’s season-ending knee injury.

Week 5’s matchup with the Broncos’ horrid defense sure would be a cool time to finally unleash Hall as the team’s clear-cut No. 1 RB ahead of Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter.

Jets RB Dalvin Cook (RB32 ADP, RB59 rank): Speaking of disappointing Jets RBs, Cook also hasn’t exactly been given enough consistent work to overly expect any sort of big-time fantasy goodness.

Unlike Hall, he hasn’t done enough WITH his touches to necessarily earn more. While Hall ranks first among 35 qualified RBs in yards per carry (6.5), Cook ranks dead-ass last (2.5). The longtime Vikings veteran is probably two injuries away from being someone fantasy managers could feel at all OK about putting into starting lineups.

Commanders RB Antonio Gibson (RB33, RB63 rank): Head coach Ron Rivera had all sorts of nice things to say about Gibson throughout the offseason, but through four weeks he’s touched the ball just 21 times. Don’t get it twisted: Gibson has badly hurt his own cause along the way courtesy of fumbling an egregious three times already this season.

Sam Howell’s tendency to take too many sacks and scramble hasn’t helped matters in the check-down game: Washington’s 16 RB targets are tied for the third-lowest mark in the NFL. Sadly, even an injury to Brian Robinson would probably not lead to an actual three-down role if rookie Chris Rodriguez (illness) was healthy.

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals

  • Preseason ADP: WR2
  • Current rank: WR41

Sunday will mark 259 days since Chase has performed the griddy as a post-TD celebration during a professional football game.

The already incredibly-accomplished 23-year-old talent was very straightforward when discussing the offense’s early-season slump, understandably attributing most of the issues to Burrow’s ongoing injury.

Things have picked up a bit over the last two weeks in the form of stellar 12-141-0 and 7-73-0 receiving lines following back-to-back performances with five receptions for under 40 scoreless yards to start the season.

That said (similar to Burrow): It remains difficult to expect an imminent jump in performance from arguably the league’s single-worst passing game without the benefit of a healthy No. 9 under center.

It’d be shocking if Chase doesn’t cut his current disparity in preseason ADP and fantasy rank in half before too long, but there’s no guarantee that this group gets back to partying like it’s 2021 or 2022 sooner rather than later.

Chris Olave, Saints

  • Preseason ADP: WR11
  • Current rank: WR36

Unrealized air yards are a good metric to help pinpoint unlucky WRs who have earned all sorts of fantasy-friendly downfield opportunities, but simply haven’t been able to translate it to box score success.

The NFL’s “leaders” in this very metric through four weeks of action:

  1. Chris Olave (353)
  2. Tee Higgins (292)
  3. Kendrick Bourne (282)
  4. A.J. Brown (273)
  5. Davante Adams (245)

While average target depth plays a role here, it's probably not a coincidence that Olave has received the fourth-highest rate of uncatchable targets among 39 WRs with at least 25 pass-game opportunities this season.

Chris Olave

Sep 18, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) crosses the goal line but was ruled to have stepped out of bounds earlier on the play in the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Carr has been an unideal mix of bad and injured this season, while it remains unlikely the coaching staff fully embraces the Jameis Winston experience anytime soon.

Glass half full view: Olave has missed out on more potential opportunities than any pass-catcher in the NFL. He’s bound to cash in on more of these opportunities moving forward because he’s a really good football player.

Glass half empty view: Olave has missed out on more potential opportunities than any pass-catcher in the NFL. His inconsistent QB play has been the problem and isn’t guaranteed to get any better.

I’d still bet on Olave finishing as a WR2 or better by the end of the season, but expecting the sort of top-12 production you drafted him for is more so a bet on Carr and/or Winston putting forward MUCH better performances the rest of the way.

At a minimum, I don’t like the chances of that happening Week 5 in New England.

Honorable mention:

Falcons WR Drake London (WR23 ADP, WR48 rank): London is averaging just 5.5 targets per game and sadly boasts the position’s fourth-highest rate of uncatchable targets among 54 players with 20-plus pass-game opportunities.

The Falcons have five pass-catchers between 17 and 22 targets this year, and Desmond Ridder has objectively been one of the worst QBs in the entire NFL. Not a great combination! Here’s to hoping Taylor Heinicke gets a chance to start sooner rather than later, but sadly it won’t be this week.

Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins (WR24 ADP, WR55 rank): The 2023 version of Hopkins is currently putting up his worst efficiency numbers since that brutal Brock Osweiler season that we all promised to never talk about ever again. While Hopkins has still put forward top-15 target share numbers at the position, that target earning ability doesn’t go as far inside of this ever run-heavy offense.

Week 4 was oh so close to being a HUGE day, but the offensive environment at hand makes it more likely we see the artist known as Nuk emerge as more of an upside WR3 as opposed to the sort of must-start WR1 he’s been for years. 

Commanders WR Jahan Dotson (WR30 ADP, WR64 rank): Week 4’s last-second TD catch was a fun time, but otherwise Dotson has really struggled to make good on his late-offseason rise up draft boards. It hasn’t really been for a lack of trying: Terry McLaurin holds relatively modest leads in targets (26 vs. 23) and air yards (267 vs. 213) through four weeks.

Rather, Dotson and Sam Howell simply haven’t been on the same page, as McLaurin (85% — 7th best) has had a far higher rate of catchable targets than the Commanders’ 2022 first-round pick (65% — 7th worst). It’d make sense if more time together gets Dotson back into WR3/4 range, although a true second-year boom could be tough inside of this inconsistent passing game.

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR36 ADP, WR112 rank): Where do we begin? Obviously, JSN (wrist) hasn’t been 100% healthy since early August, but the Seahawks have felt confident enough in his health to play the rookie on 52% of their snaps this season. 

he larger issue has been the pure gadget-esque usage on display: Nobody has a lower average target depth than Smith-Njigba (3.3) among 75 WRs with at least 15 targets this season. 

You’d like to think the Seahawks have a bigger long-term plan for their 2023 first-round pick, but it might take an injury to either D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett for JSN to become overly fantasy-relevant in the near term.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts, Falcons

  • Preseason ADP: TE6
  • Current rank: TE30

Similar to Drake London: Pitts is suffering from a bad combination of poor QB performance and middling volume. The latter variable is actually less of a problem relative to other players at the position, but then again holding a slim *one* target lead over current team receiving-yard leader Jonnu Smith (seriously) is pretty, pretty, pretty annoying for Pitts’ fantasy managers to stomach.

Similar to Joe Burrow, one of the primary excuses here is the reality that Pitts appears to be playing through the pain of a knee injury. While I do admit Pitts hasn’t exactly looked fully healthy while striding down the field, the third-year TE hasn’t been listed on the injury report even in Weeks 1 to 4 and has posted a 68.7% snap rate on the season.

Pitts isn’t someone that fantasy managers can trust as more than a low-floor TE2 for the time being. This disappointing start contains the holy trifecta of messed up problems for fantasy managers to deal with:

  1. Annoying and run-first coaching leading to inconsistent workloads
  2. Objectively brutal performance at QB
  3. Injury-induced lack of personal performance

Fantasy Life Director of Analytics Dwain McFarland and myself agreed on the Sunday night Fantasy Life Podcast that we would rather have Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson over Pitts for the rest of the season at this point.

Yeah, that’s how bad things have gotten here.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles

  • Preseason ADP: TE7
  • Current rank: TE37

You know things are going bad when the head coach is forced to reconfirm that someone is still a big part of the offense.

From Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni:

“Trust me, I promise you, he’s still part of the plan of wanting us to get him the football. We need to get him the football. Sometimes there’s a dry spell in there, too, that’s what’s kind of going on right now."

And what a dry spell it has been: 0-0-0, 6-22-0, 5-41-0 and most-recently 2-25-0 receiving lines leave Goedert outside the position’s top-36 performers in fantasy land despite his status as the overall TE2 in total routes run.

Dallas Goedert

Nov 14, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (88) spikes the football after making a touchdown catch against the Washington Commanders during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Sadly, this might just be what life is like more weeks than not with Jalen Hurts focusing his attention on A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith more than ever before. Overall, only the Raiders (63%) have targeted their top-two WRs on a higher percentage of pass attempts than the Eagles (58%) through four weeks.

Unlike with Pitts, there’s reason to believe Godert will experience more good days ahead. There’s no reason to believe the 28-year-old veteran is suddenly bad at football; it makes sense that this Jalen Hurts-led attack has been a bit wobbly out of the gate while adjusting to life without current Colts head coach Shane Steichen.

Goedert probably won’t ever get the sort of target share to help him work as the sort of top-five fantasy option that he very well might be in real life, but a climb back into the position’s low-end TE1 range is well within his range of possibilities considering his overall track record of success inside of an offense that *should* even out the targets a bit more in a larger sample.

Honorable mention:

Giants TE Darren Waller (TE4 ADP, TE16 rank): Week 4 was a new low, with the Giants’ presumed No. 1 pass-game option seeing just three targets all game despite sure looking wide open on a certain high-leverage goal line snap.

Even then, the longtime Raiders TE remains one of just seven players with a target share north of 20% at the position: If anyone in this Giants passing game is going to emerge as a consistent fantasy contributor, it still *should* be Waller, although the ceiling looks lower than ever inside of the league’s 32nd-ranked scoring offense.

49ers TE George Kittle (TE5 ADP, TE20 rank): Hasn’t quite received the same level of ridicule as Waller for his slow start, probably because Kittle’s lone good game (7-90-0 in Week 3) was also his only primetime game of the year thus far.

There’s also far less doubt surrounding Kittle’s very real status as one of the best football players in the league regardless of position; this year’s version of the 49ers have simply rendered the stud TE as more of a clear-cut No. 4 pass-game option than in recent years.

Like Goedert, expect some far better days ahead, but also like Goedert, don’t expect consistent top-five performance inside of an offense with PLENTY of places to go with the football.

Fantasy Let Downs