What a wild 2023 it’s been for C.J. Stroud.
Seriously: The now 22-year-old QB has been dealing with a LOT ever since the ball dropped to start the new year.
- Dec. 31-Jan. 1: Stroud plays the game of his life and nearly leads Ohio State to a victory over Georgia, but the clock struck midnight (literally) as a last-second missed field goal spoiled the Buckeyes’ upset bid.
- April 21: Draft Twitter goes wild when leaked “S2 Cognition” test scores allegedly place Stroud in just the 18th percentile, although the low score would later be disputed.
- April 27: The Texans select Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick despite late speculation that they could go for Will Levis.
- Sept. 10: Stroud makes his first NFL start in a 25-9 loss to the Ravens, but did ultimately manage to pass for 242 yards — the second-highest mark against this elite unit all season.
- Nov. 5: Stroud throws for a single-game rookie record 470 TDs to go along with five (!) TDs — the last of which came with just six seconds remaining to win the damn game.
Through eight weeks of action Stroud has tossed 14 TDs against just one interception (that the Texans hilariously immediately got back anyway when the defender fumbled). His 17-game pace in passing yards (4,825) would beat Andrew Luck’s rookie NFL-record 4,374 before the final week of the season.
And guess what: Stroud has looked good doing it along the way, tossing one tight-window dime after another all season long.
Only comparing Stroud against fellow 2023 draft class QBs is doing the young man a disservice at this point — the Texans’ franchise signal-caller is playing like a legit top-10 QB regardless of experience.
- EPA per dropback: +0.15 (No. 7 among 35 QBs with 100-plus dropbacks)
- PFF pass grade: 75.4 (No. 12)
- Passer rating: 102.9 (No. 4)
- Yards per attempt: 8.1 (No. 3)
Critics could point to more middling marks in completion percentage over expected (-0.2%, No. 21) and adjusted completion rate (75%, No. 20), but then again the man does deserve a bit of slack when it comes to advanced accuracy metrics considering Stroud is one of only three QBs with an average target depth north of 9.0 yards on the season.
Real-life optics aside: Stroud’s average of 19.6 fantasy points per game trails only Josh Allen (23.4) and Jalen Hurts (22.8) on the season. He’s easily emerged as the best pre-draft value at the position when looking at the difference of preseason ADP vs. current rank in fantasy points per game:
- Stroud (+27: QB30 ADP, QB3 in fantasy points per game)
- Baker Mayfield (+14: QB32, QB18)
- Sam Howell (+12: QB23, QB11)
- Brock Purdy (+8: QB22, QB14)
- Kirk Cousins (+7: QB14, QB7)
Stroud is putting forward one of the best rookie seasons the position has ever seen in both real life and in fantasy land while truly looking the part of the next big thing at the position through nine weeks of 2023 … but can he keep it up?
My belief: Yes. And here are the three main reasons why:
Banged up or not: This Texans offensive line is playing GREAT
Stroud has been operating behind a walking graveyard for most of 2023, as this unit had five members on injured reserve during the first month of the season in addition to Laremy Tunsil missing three weeks of action.
And yet … they’ve been really, really, really good by pretty much any measure! It’s one thing to allow a low pressure rate — and the Texans (32.9%) have been the 10th-best team at doing just that — but sometimes the metric is more of a testament to a QB’s quick release than actual dominance at the line of scrimmage.
Quick pressure rate allowed (under 2.5 second) does a better job of demonstrating which offensive lines have truly struggled to keep their QB clean, and the Texans maintain their 10th-place ranking with a stellar 22.6% mark.
And honestly: Things have been even better in recent weeks. The Texans have allowed just seven total sacks over their last six games after seeing Stroud get got on 11 occasions in Weeks 1 and 2 alone. Their marks in pressure rate (28.9%, No. 4) and quick pressure rate (19.9%, No. 8) allowed have also improved.
Sep 17, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) celebrates with Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) after a touchdown Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023, during a game against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jenna Watson-USA TODAY Sports
Even then: Stroud also deserves credit for vastly improving his ability to handle pressure over the last month and a half of action. This is certainly a bit of an arbitrary first two weeks vs. last six weeks split, but still!
- Weeks 1-2: 25% of pressures converted to sacks (No. 22 highest mark among 31 qualified QBs)
- Weeks 3-8: 12.3% (No. 4 behind only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy)
It’s been a team effort between Stroud and his offensive line. Oh yeah, and those coaches probably deserve a bit of credit too.
Don’t be surprised if Texans OC Bobby Slowik gets head coaching interest sooner rather than later
The former 49ers passing game coordinator has come to Houston and instilled some serious Shanahan-ness into the league’s reigning 30th-ranked scoring offense. The Texans actually rank just one spot behind Slowik’s former employer in pass rate over expected (-3.8%, No. 25), as this group has tried to stay balanced despite averaging the third-fewest yards per carry in the league this season.
The lack of success on the ground hasn’t been for lack of play-calling creativity. Houston ranks 10th in pre-snap shift/motion rate (58%) and has run the ball into boxes featuring eight-plus defenders on just 67.1% % of their carries — the 13th-lowest mark in the league.
I mean, look at this shit!
Still: It was EXTREMELY refreshing to see the offense re-embrace their early-season pass-heavy tendencies in Week 9 with Dameon Pierce (ankle) sidelined. That 9% dropback over expected mark is the sort of stuff that fantasy championship dreams are made of.
Slowik is drawing up plays in the dirt on the sideline and has the Texans sitting pretty as the league’s seventh-best offense in EPA per play (+0.030) and ninth-best unit in yards per play (5.5): Life is good inside of a Texans locker room that has already scored 30-plus points on three separate occasions — nearly more than their four such performances during the 2021 and 2022 seasons combined.
Reminder: These were the top WRs and TEs available entering the season:
- Third-year WR Nico Collins, who didn’t have a season with 500 yards to his name.
- 31-year-old WR Robert Woods, who looked washed on his way to gaining a career-low 527 yards in 2022 with the Titans.
- Third-round rookie Tank Dell, who possessed major size concerns (5-foot-8, 165 pounds).
- Former Cowboys backup WR Noah Brown, who averaged just 14.8 yards per contest in 66 career games before 2023.
- Former Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz, who certainly enjoyed plenty of production in Dallas, but apparently wasn’t thought of enough for the team to match the Texans’ one-year, $6.25 million offer.
Obviously, these guys deserve plenty of credit for their individual efforts — Collins (No. 6) and Dell (No. 8) are two of ESPN Analytics' top-eight WRs this season — but it also wasn’t exactly controversial when PFF ranked the Texans’ receiving corp dead-ass last prior to the 2023 season.
And yet, Slowik finds himself keeping up with both Shanahan and fellow disciple Mike McDaniel when it comes to explosive pass play rate (15-plus yards):
- Dolphins (21.9%)
- 49ers (20.9%)
- Texans (17.4%)
It’d make sense if the young Jims and Joes involved continue to evolve and play better as they gain more experience with the quality X’s and O’s that Slowik and company are putting forward.
Oh yeah, and guess what? This passing game as a whole is set up with one of the best schedules anyone could ask for the rest of the way.
The schedule Gods did Stroud and company some SERIOUS favors
The next eight weeks of action don’t simply feature one layup after another, but that said: There is a serious string of porous pass defenses that this group *should* be able to take advantage of it in style.
- Week 10 at Bengals: No. 19 in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs
- Week 11 vs. Cardinals: No. 24
- Week 12 vs. Jaguars: No. 28
- Week 13 vs. Broncos: No. 25
- Week 14 at Jets: No. 7
- Week 15 at Titans: No. 13
- Week 16 vs. Browns: No. 2
- Week 17 vs. Titans: No. 13
Overall, Stroud has the position’s second-easiest schedule over the course of the next four weeks; Weeks 14 and 16 are going to be the only two times where managers will have any sort of serious matchup-induced concerns the rest of the way.
Throw in a Texans defense that looked pretty far from okay on their way to allowing 37 points to Baker Mayfield and company last week, and this team has the look of group with the sort of:
- High-flying offense capable of SERIOUSLY taking advantage of plus matchups
- Middling defense prone to expose itself to fantasy-friendly back-and-forth shootouts
While I’d take the under on whether or not Stroud will finish better or worse than the QB3 by season’s end, the rookie has certainly earned weekly QB1 treatment alongside fellow pocket passer maestros like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa.
Man, good thing the Texans completed that miraculous 28-yard TD on fourth and 20 — and converted the ensuing two-point conversion — to beat the Colts in Week 18 last season and lose the No. 1 overall pick, huh? Thanks again, Lovie Smith.
