QB Tiers

Yes, the NFL season doesn’t start for basically another six months.

Also, yes, fantasy football never sleeps, and it’s always a great day to be great.

What follows is the first edition of my 2023 fantasy football QB tiers. 

The players are ranked in order inside of the specific tiers; just realize the disparity is far wider between tiers than individual rankings. 

Current Underdog Fantasy ADP and specific pick numbers are also noted.

Tier 1: HIM (QB1-3)

QB1: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts 

Hurts has scored an absurd 78 total touchdowns in 38 career starts. 

The Eagles combine the league’s best offensive line with a myriad of exceptional pass-catchers in A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert; the 49ers are probably the only other offense with an argument to having a more fantasy-friendly environment.

The fact that the Eagles lost a handful of important defensive pieces in free agency only helps matters considering how many fourth quarters Hurts and company had the privilege of taking off last season.

Ultimately, Hurts’ status as the league’s second-highest volume goal line back (20 carries inside the five-yard line) makes him tough to get out of the No. 1 spot. 

Nobody had a better top-six finish rate in fantasy last season:

  1. Hurts (finished as top-six fantasy QB in 80% of 2022 starts)
  2. Mahomes (71%)
  3. Allen (69%)
  4. Burrow (44%)
  5. Lawrence (41%)
QB Tiers

QB2: Bills QB Josh Allen

Allen is responsible for two of the last three overall QB1 performances and offers more scoring upside on the ground than anybody other than Hurts.

The latter variable, combined with the Bills’ commitment to throwing the football on a year-to-year basis, gives Allen one of the single-most fantasy-friendly workloads in the NFL: He ranked first in air yards and third in rush attempts at the position last season.

Already one of just seven quarterbacks in NFL history with at least three seasons with 35-plus passing touchdowns, Allen’s lone negative (too many turnovers) is easily made up for by weekly alien-level scoring upside.

QB3: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

The NFL’s reigning league MVP threw for a career-high 5,250 passing yards and tossed a cool 41 touchdowns in 2022 despite losing the services of ace No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill.

After six seasons, Mahomes stands as the only QB in NFL history who averages over 300 passing yards per game; throw in a career average of 19.3 rushing yards per game, and you have the ingredients for the league’s all-time QB1 in fantasy points per game.

The only reason why Mahomes isn’t above Hurts and Allen is due to the reality that one rushing yard is worth 2.5 times one passing yard in fantasy land; that said, the Chiefs’ franchise QB is certainly more than capable of making up for his relative lack of production on the ground with even more goodness through the air.

Tier 2: Ceiling is the roof (QB4-7)

QB4: Bears QB Justin Fields

Fields was nothing short of sensational in 2022, ultimately racking up the second-most rushing yards (160-1143-8) in a single season by a quarterback … ever. The performance helped Fields rack up more fantasy points per game on the ground than any other signal-caller in 2022:

  1. Fields (10.8 fantasy points per game from purely rushing production)
  2. Hurts (10.3)
  3. Jackson (7.9)
  4. Allen (7.4)
  5. Jones (7.1)
Justin Fields

Dec 18, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) looks to pass in the third quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

The decision by the Bears not to select his potential replacement with the NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick moves Fields to the top of this tier. 

While PFF’s reigning 32nd-ranked offense in team receiving grade unironically entered the offseason with Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, and Equanmieous St. Brown as its top-three WRs We now have the pleasure of adding in D.J. Moore and (hopefully) an early-round pick to the mix.

Fields’ newfound pass-game weaponry might help prevent the need for him to (again) put forward one of the greatest rushing seasons the position has ever seen to repeat last season’s fantasy heroics. 

His ceiling might as well be Pluto with improvement as a passer.

QB5: Bengals QB Joe Burrow

Burrow proved capable of supplying a fantasy-friendly rushing floor during his second season removed from a torn ACL:

His rushing line in 2022 (90-327-6, including playoffs) is actually superior to what he managed in 30 combined games during 2020 and 2021 (88-291-5).

Of course, Burrow’s primary means of racking up yardage remains through the air: Only Mahomes (20.3) has averaged more fantasy points per game from pure passing production than Burrow (19.2) over the past two seasons.

Overall, Burrow ranks second on-target passing percentage (79.4%) behind only Aaron Rodgers (79.7%) among 39 quarerbacks with at least 16 starts since 2020; it helps that there might not be a more talented trio of WRs to continue to make the most out of these opportunities.

QB6: Chargers QB Justin Herbert

Herbert’s relatively down 2022 can rather easily be explained away by three key factors:

  1. Herbert was playing through the pain of his fractured ribs starting in Week 2 and also tore his left shoulder labrum. Ouch.
  2. Top WRs Keenan Allen (missed 7 games) and Mike Williams (5) both missed large chunks of the season. Hell, primary field-stretcher WR Jalen Guyton (14) was done for the season with a torn ACL by Week 3. Herbert posted top-12 fantasy finishes in five of seven games with both of his top-two WRs.
  3. OC Joe Lombardi basically treated Herbert like late-career Drew Brees when it came to attacking downfield, which is a problem when your franchise QB has an absolute rocket launcher for a right arm. Overall, only Matt Ryan (5.9) and Daniel Jones (5.8) had a lower average target depth than Herbert (6.2) among 38 qualified QBs in 2022.

Good news: 

The team has a whole offseason to get healthy, and Lombardi was replaced by former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore, who helped the Cowboys score more points than anybody other than the Chiefs during his four seasons with Dak Prescott and company. 

Note that Prescott enjoyed a top-12 aDOT in each of the past two seasons.

I’m fine prioritizing Herbert (fifth all-time in fantasy points per game at the position) ahead of Jackson at the moment, thanks to his far clearer 2023 status in terms of, you know, what team he’ll be playing for.

QB7: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

Jackson has the potential to rise to the top of this tier with more clarity about his future. 

A return home to Baltimore with a few new WRs and new OC Todd Monken certainly qualifies as a solid landing spot; Jackson is responsible for the single-greatest season in NFL history in terms of fantasy points per game, after all.

Still, more help sure would be nice: The Ravens rank 31st in non-QB spending since drafting Jackson in 2018, yet fifth in total points scored.

While there are plenty of landing spots with the sort of offensive weapons that would only help Jackson’s value (49ers?), it’sMeyer-induced impossible to rule out a worst-case scenario of a holdout and/or new employer that would constitute a downgrade (Texans?).

Tier 3: You could imagine (QB8-12)

QB8: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence

T-Law proved that his miserable rookie campaign was indeed Urban Meyer induced, ultimately leading the Jaguars to the NFL’s fifth-biggest comeback ever before keeping things competitive despite falling against the Chiefs in Arrowhead.

The highs were high for the 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick, as only Hurts (12), Mahomes (12), and Allen (11) had more top-six fantasy finishes than Lawrence (7) in 2022.

Throw in the addition of a motivated Calvin Ridley, and it’s easy to see Lawrence breaking out in a major way ahead of 2023; I’m on board with his current top-eight ADP thanks to his potential to make a big-time year-three leap and borderline erotic supporting cast.

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QB9: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa

On the one hand, Tua led the NFL in touchdown rate (6.3%), yards per attempt (8.9), adjusted yards per attempt (9.2), and passer rating (105.5) in 2022; he was pretty damn good at throwing the football when healthy enough to suit up.
Tua

Dec 25, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) stands on the field during the second half against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Conversely, Tua only achieved a top-12 finish in 46% of his starts – the 15th-highest mark among QBs who played at least five games in 2022. 

The rising fourth-year QB hasn’t rushed for 50 yards in a game since high school.

Why is Tua this high? Because life through the air is easy enough with two of the game’s best WRs by his side. 

Last season Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle recorded just the 18th instance of teammate WRs both recording top-12 seasons in PPR points per game over the past 10 years; the average per-game QB finish from those qualifiers is QB7 and 16 of 18 qualified signal-caller finished inside the position’s top-12.

QB10: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott

It’s tough to count losing OC Kellen Moore as a major positive for Prescott. Sure, things didn’t work out against the 49ers’ elite defense in back-to-back season-ending playoff defeats, but Prescott largely enjoyed the most-productive years of his career with Moore calling plays from 2019 to 2022:

  • 2016: 17.9 fantasy points per game (QB9)
  • 2017: 16.3 (QB14)
  • 2018: 17.9 (QB13)
  • 2019: 21.1 (QB3)
  • 2020: 26.9 (QB1)
  • 2021: 20 (QB8)
  • 2022: 16.6 (QB14)

The Cowboys were already a run-heavy team with Moore at the helm in 2022, so new play-caller/head coach MIke McCarthy’s desire to “run the damn ball” might not be as detrimental as Twitter is making it out to be.

Adding Brandin Cooks to the fold is great for the overall offensive environment, although the Cowboys' defense sure looks good enough on paper for the team to (again) be able to refrain from putting too much on their franchise QB’s plate.

QB11: Browns QB Deshaun Watson

So here’s the thing with Watson’s 2022 season: He was really bad.

Yes, context is needed: Watson’s pass-catchers posted a top-10 drop rate once he got under center in Week 13 (including three dropped touchdowns against the Saints), and it would make sense if his head weren’t exactly in a great spot following one of the more ridicule-filled offseasons in recent memory.

Still: Watson was really bad in 2022 on basically everything other than intermediate passing accuracy (Player Profiler):

  • EPA per play: -0.16 (No. 37 among 38 qualified QB)
  • Yards per attempt: 6.5 (No. 33)
  • Accuracy 0-10 yards downfield: 62.4% (No. 36)
  • Accuracy 11-20 yards downfield: 74.4% (No. 3)
  • Accuracy 21+ yards downfield: 20% (No. 38)

And yet, Watson’s status as one of just five quarterbacks averaging 20-plus fantasy points per game for their career makes him tough to overly fade ahead of 2023. 

One of Matthew Berry’s 23 most interesting things he heard at the NFL combine stated the Browns, “are really going to open up the offense. Go five wide. Pass a lot. This is going to be Deshaun Watson's offense, not Nick Chubb's. They will pass a lot more than folks expect.”

A return to early-career form would once again have Watson ranked as a weekly top-five fantasy asset thanks to his demonstrated high-end dual-threat ability.

QB12: Giants QB Daniel Jones

Jones has decreased his interception rate in every season of his career and managed to set career-best marks in adjusted yards per attempt (6.9), passer rating (92.5), and QBR (60.8) in his first season with head coach Brian Daboll.

This was despite dealing with quite a bit of pass-catcher turnover: The team’s top-four wide receivers entering Week 1 in Kenny Golladay (mannequin), Sterling Shepard (torn ACL in Week 3), Kadarius Toney (traded to Chiefs) and Wan’Dale Robinson (played 6 games due to injury) all managed to not work out, leaving Jones to make the most out of the likes of Darius Slayton, Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins among others.

This led to the fourth-year signal-caller posting career-high marks in carries (120), rushing yards (708), and rushing touchdowns (7).

He had more fantasy points per game from purely rushing production than anyone other than Fields, Hurts, Jackson and Allen.

Here’s to hoping the Giants do a better job surrounding their new $160 million QB with capable pass-catchers.

Trading for Darren Waller was a great start, and even if they don’t, the soon-to-be 26-year-old dual-threat should have more than enough rushing volume to vie for another top-10 fantasy finish.

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Tier 4: Be a lot cooler if they could run (QB13-19)

QB13: Lions QB Jared Goff

Goff is coming off his best season since the Rams’ ill-fated Super Bowl run in 2018.

The Lions’ reigning fifth-ranked scoring offense will get a healthier version of 2022 first-round WR Jameson Williams in addition to whatever their cap space (10th most in the NFL) and top-100 draft capital (own picks No. 6, No. 18, No. 48, No. 55 and No. 81) can muster.

There’s a good chance that Goff has more places to go with the football than ever.

His complete and utter lack of a rushing floor has always prevented the 2016 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick from truly booming in fantasy land, but that doesn’t mean another borderline QB1 finish isn’t on the table inside of this ascending Detroit offense.

QB14: Jets QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers’ brutal 2022 campaign featured him score fewer fantasy points per game than the likes of Marcus Mariota, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, and even Carson Wentz, among others. 

Not great!

While the future Hall of Famer’s arm didn’t seem to turn into a noodle, his 217 pass yards per game were a full 22 yards below his previous all-time single-season low. It’s been three full seasons since A-aron has averaged double-digit rushing yards per game; he’ll need an absolute boom in passing efficiency in order to get back to his usual high-end fantasy goodness.

Elderly QBs have been far superior fantasy options compared to olds at any other position; just realize we’ve almost certainly already seen Rodgers play the best football of his career.

Perhaps rising second-year WR Garrett Wilson and a reunion with Nathaniel Hackett is enough to get Rodgers partying like it’s 2020-21 again, but that’s probably not enough evidence to pay a premium for the soon-to-be 40-year-old veteran in fantasy land.

QB15: Vikings QB Kirk Cousins

Cousins has been a model of consistency with the Vikings in fantasy, consistently churning out borderline QB1 performances undoubtedly thanks in large part to his ever-loaded WR room:

  • 2018: QB16
  • 2019: QB18
  • 2020: QB11
  • 2021: QB12
  • 2022: QB12

Year two in head coach Kevin O’Connell’s scheme should hopefully produce better efficiency numbers (Cousins posted five-year lows in completion rate, yards per attempt, and QBR in 2022); either way, there should be enough pass-game volume on the table to enable more solid counting numbers through the air.

QB16: Seahawks QB Geno Smith

The Seahawks’ new $75 million man could flirt with the upper portion of this tier should the Seahawks decide against adding real 2023 competition through the NFL Draft, which is certainly possible considering they boast five picks inside of the top-100 selections (No. 5, No. 20, No. 37, No. 52, No. 83).

Smith was one of the league’s very best quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected in 2022 and posted top-10 numbers in yards per attempt (7.5, No. 9), adjusted completion rate (77.8%, No. 6), passer rating (100.9, No. 5) and PFF passing grade (76.1, No. 9) despite his much discussed second-half dropoff.

Having two great WRs in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett helps matters; just realize Smith is coming off an arguable top-10 real-life season in addition to his fantasy success.

QB17: Broncos QB Russell Wilson

Russ was bad in 2022, but it’s not like his patented moonball ceased to be successful. 

Alas, 2022 marked just the third time in Wilson’s career that he failed to throw for at least 25 touchdowns, and his rushing yards per game dipped under 20 for the second season in a row. 

The $242,588,236 question: Can new head coach Sean Payton get Mr. Unlimited back to cooking like it’s pre-2022 again? Rumor has it that Wilson is on a one-year audition, with the source even noting: “I don’t think [Sean] Payton likes Russ.”

QBs run less as they get older, although it’d make sense if a healthier group of WRs and better-designed offense at least get Russ closer to the QB1 borderline in fantasy land ahead of 2023.

QB18: Saints QB Derek Carr

Carr’s four-year, $150 million deal cements him as New Orlean’s undisputed QB1. 

The franchise continues to do everything in their power to prove that the salary cap is merely a figment of our collective imagination.

Metrics like adjusted yards per attempt (7.5 vs. 6.7) and completion rate (66.7% vs. 60.8%) paint the picture of Andy Dalton being a superior signal-caller to Carr in 2022, although the latter QB did hold the lead in EPA per dropback (0.07 vs. 0.02).

Potential real-life upgrade under center aside: There shouldn’t be all that much optimism behind Carr breaking out in any sort of major way as a fantasy asset. The soon-to-be 32-year-old veteran has worked as a top-12 QB in fantasy points per game in just one season since entering the league in 2014.

  • 2022: QB20 in fantasy points per game
  • 2021: QB18
  • 2020: QB18
  • 2019: QB23
  • 2018: QB25
  • 2017: QB20
  • 2016: QB10
  • 2015: QB18
  • 2014: QB26

QB19: Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Garoppolo never enjoyed the breakout season some hoped for in his time with the 49ers, but he has a 4,000-yard passing upside. 

The 10th-year veteran averaged 238 yards per game and a touchdown on 5% of his passes, slightly above the NFL average.

Of course, from a YPA efficiency perspective, Garoppolo has been astoundingly good over his career: No QB since the 1970 merger has averaged more yards per attempt than Jimmy G (8.3) with a minimum of 50 starts.

He is a decent clean-pocket passer but struggles against pressure. The 31-year-old finished below the NFL average in PFF pass grade versus pressure in four out of his last five seasons in San Francisco.

Reuniting with long-time Patriots OC Josh McDaniels *should* make for an easy enough transition for the 31-year-old veteran. Still – similar to Carr – there isn’t enough proof of high-end fantasy upside to get all that excited about Garoppolo’s 2023 possibilities (at least on the field):

  • 2022: QB19 in fantasy points per game (10 starts)
  • 2021: QB17 (15 starts)
  • 2020: QB38 (6 starts)
  • 2019: QB23 (16 starts)
  • 2018: QB21 (3 starts)
  • 2017: QB21 (5 starts)

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Tier 5: Why won’t God turn off injuries (QB20-21)

QB20: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

Kyler would be tier three at the absolute lowest with no injury concern. Too bad that’s far from the case. I wrote the following about the Cardinals’ $230.5 million franchise QB in my fantasy injury roundup:

“Reportedly ahead of schedule in his recovery per team owner Michael Bidwill, but did state: “I think (his return) is going to be earlier than this midseason, so hopefully, it’s toward the beginning of the season.” 

Kyler Murray Running

Nov 27, 2022; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) scrambles past Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Khalil Mack (52) during the first half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Rondone-USA TODAY Sports

Good news: Murray suffered a clean ACL tear with no damage to other ligaments in his knee. 

Still, Dr. Porras suggests that his recovery will be (at least) nine months and potentially 10 to 11 months before he’s rushing like normal. Dr. Mueller suggests we might not see his rushing upside return until late 2023 or 2024. 

This makes Kyler far from a guarantee to be on the field in September, given that his surgery date was January 4, 2023, and we might not see his usual electric self for some time.

Murray ranks fifth among all QBs in fantasy points per game since entering the league in 2019; his dual-threat prowess makes him a cheat code of sorts in fantasy land despite his lack of high-end real-life success to this point.

Ultimately, the potential for the Cardinals to 1.) Ease Murray back into action, and 2.) Tank to an extent and not go out of their way to surround him with great pass-catchers, makes it tough to be overly optimistic about the 2019 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick ahead of 2023.

QB21: 49ers QB Trey Lance

Lance doesn’t have the gaudiest physical traits and hasn’t overly proved himself as an overly efficient weapon on the ground.

And yet, that hasn’t stopped head coach Kyle Shanahan from feeding him like a high school Derrick Henry during his four career extended appearances under center (187 carry pace in a 17-game season):

  • Week 4, 2021 (played 51% snaps): 7-41-0 rushing
  • Week 5, 2021: 16-89-0
  • Week 17, 2021: 8-31-0
  • Week 1, 2022: 13-54-0

Meanwhile, no play-caller does a better job creating yards after catch, and there might not be a better RB1-WR1-WR2-TE1 punch than Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.

The 49ers likely won’t have much of choice a but to start Lance at least for the beginning of the season, despite GM John Lynch’s assertion that Brock Purdy is “the leader in the clubhouse” and has “earned the right” to be the starting QB. Purdy’s completely torn UCL required surgery. 

Dr. Jeff Mueller points out that the tear was bad enough to delay surgery. Purdy’s “absolute best-case scenario” is to be ready by Week 1, which aligns with NBC Sports’ Jennifer Lee Chan, who reports Purdy’s six-month recovery timeframe would have him fully cleared by the second week of September should everything go as planned.

Fantasy-friendly rushing volume inside of an absolutely loaded passing game could carry Lance to upside QB1 heights should the injury Gods chill the hell out for once. 

Unfortunately, his leash might not be long enough to keep the job, if he wind up getting it back at all.

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Tier 6: Young potential top guns (QB22-28)

QB22: Rookie QB Anthony Richardson

Richardson already finds himself as one of my top-three QBs in fantasy-friendly rushing ability. 

Similar to early-career Josh Allen, he has all the tools to be a great fantasy signal-caller from day one despite the potential for a longer learning curve in becoming an elite real-life QB.

QB23: Rookie QB Bryce Young

Young didn’t show off a ton of rushing production at Alabama, but seemingly has the athleticism to increase his raw counting numbers on the ground at the next level. 

Don’t expect his landing spot to lead to much of a redshirt year: 21 of 26 QBs with top-10 draft capital since 2010 went on to start at least 10 games as a rookie.

QB24: Rookie QB C.J. Stroud

My comp for Stroud: Jared Goff with theoretical ability to move. 

His performance against Georgia was borderline erotic, but that sort of rushing volume wasn’t on display during the rest of his time in Columbus.

Justin Herbert is the only rookie QB to finish as a top-12 fantasy football scorer who did NOT average at least 25 rushing yards per game in college (Stroud averaged 5.2 rush yards per game). 

QB25: Packers QB Jordan Love

  • Underdog ADP: QB23 (151.6)

Love has exactly three extended regular-season appearances since being drafted with the 26th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft:

  • Week 9, 2021: Started in Arrowhead and only led the offense to seven total points. The most memorable moment was his family getting hilariously bad seats.
  • Week 18, 2021: Played half the game and didn’t exactly impress with just 134 yards, one touchdown and a pair of interceptions on 17 pass attempts against the Lions “vaunted” defense.
  • Week 12, 2022: Relieved an injured Aaron Rodgers late in the Packers’ eventual loss to the Eagles. Credit to Love for connecting with Christian Watson on a 63-yard score, although the TD was more of a YAC-induced success than anything.

That said: Love is expected to start 17 games in 2023 pending health, which isn’t something that most players going so late in drafts can hang their hat on. 

While nobody will confuse Love for Lamar Jackson any time soon, his 4.74 40-yard dash and 5-23-0 rushing line in his only start could be a sign of at least a somewhat decent rushing floor.

QB26: Steelers QB Kenny Pickett

Pickett showed up in some big moments down the stretch for the Steelers, but didn’t exactly put up fantasy-viable counting numbers despite having plenty of perceived high-end weapons to throw the football to.

His 55-237-3 rushing line in 13 games is a solid floor, but just seven passing scores in 13 games is awfully rough. 

Rookie QBs to throw fewer than 10 TDs with 10-plus starts since 2000: David Carr, Kyle Orton, Bruce Gradkowski, Jimmy Clausen, Mitchell Trubisky, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson … and Pickett.

QBs like Goff and T-Law proved that a scheme overhaul could quickly turn a first-round bust into a boom in a hurry; just realize the 2023 Steelers aren’t expected to change all that much with OC Matt Canada and most of the important offensive personnel returning.

QB27: Rookie QB Will Levis

Levis’ incredible physical tools and startling inconsistency has earned him plenty of Josh Allen comps, because what else are people supposed to call talented yet inexplicably bad college QBs who earn top-10 draft capital anyway?

A slide down the board and/or porous landing spot could drop Levis down a tier or two; just realize highly-drafted QBs seldom spend much time sitting on the bench.

QB28: 49ers QB Brock Purdy

NBC Sports’ Jennifer Lee Chan reports Purdy’s six-month recovery timeframe would have him fully cleared by the second week of September should everything go as planned.

I’m expecting Trey Lance to be the 49ers’ Week 1 starter, although Purdy would quickly enter the QB2 conversation with another chance to lead the way. 

That sure seems possible after GM John Lynch said Purdy is “the leader in the clubhouse” to be the starting QB; he’ll rise up these ranks as his health becomes clearer.

Tier 7: Need a whole lot of things to go right (QB29-31)

QB29: Rams QB Matthew Stafford

Reports on Stafford’s future with the Rams and in the NFL, in general, have been all over the place. Retirement still appears to be possible.

That said: The 35-year-old signal-caller is just one season removed from throwing for a robust 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns on his way to working as the league’s most-efficient QB in EPA per play (including playoffs).

Historically, QBs with 10-plus years of experience have been plenty adept at continuing to churn out high-end fantasy seasons; Stafford has another top-12 season firmly in his potential range of outcomes with improved personal health and something resembling a decent offensive line.

QB30: Patriots QB Mac Jones

Jones was better as a rookie compared to 2022 in just about any metric one can find, yet he worked as just the QB24 in fantasy points per game in 2021.

Mac Jones

Jan 8, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws a pass as New England Patriots guard Mike Onwenu (71) blocks for hom against the Buffalo Bills in the third quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Trading for a certain Cardinals WR would mightily help things in terms of available weaponry, but even then, Jones could struggle to have enough of a fantasy-friendly workload worth caring about in traditional one-QB fantasy formats.

QB31: Titans QB Ryan Tannehill

The artist known as TanneThrill worked as the QB9, QB9, and QB14 in fantasy points per game from 2019 to 2021 before last season’s tumble to QB26.

The Titans would need to 1.) Add several more competent pass-catchers, and 2.) Part ways with Derrick Henry, in order to begin to envision a return to form for their soon-to-be 35-year-old QB.

Tier 8: Tentative Week 1 starters with plenty of competition (QB32-35)

QB32: Commanders QB Sam Howell

Howell’s deep-ball goodness and 183-828-11 rushing line in his final season at North Carolina paint the picture of a fantasy-friendly QB. 
 

However, head coach Ron Rivera said if a veteran quarterback beats out Sam Howell for the Week 1 starting job, "so be it." 

QB33: Falcons QB Desmond Ridder

Ridder is in the driver's seat to start Week 1 (for now); the problem is he failed to demonstrate any sort of fantasy upside himself during the final four weeks of 2022. 

Most depressing was that the rookie totaled a mediocre 16-64-0 rushing line in his four starts despite boasting a pretty great physical profile at 6'3", 207 pounds with a 4.52-second 40-yard dash.

The lack of pass-game volume combined with a mediocre rushing floor doesn't exactly make for a fantasy asset worth chasing.

QB34: Colts QB Gardner Minshew

We’ll know just how long Minshew’s leash is under center by the extent to which the organization attempts to add competition through the draft or trade market (cc. Lamar Jackson).

Minshew could work his way into tier five should the Colts decline to add serious additional resources to their QB room, although that seems terribly unlikely. 

Just ask owner Jim Irsay. 

This would leave the ex-Jaguars and Eagles signal-caller as nothing more than a possible early-season spot starter in fantasy land.

Credit to Minshew for showing off some solid fantasy upside during his last four starts:

  • Week 13, 2021: 242-2-0 passing, fantasy QB10
  • Week 18, 2021: 186-2-1, QB18
  • Week 16, 2022: 355-2-2, QB7
  • Week 17, 2022: 274-1-1, QB17

Still, the best ability is availability, and it seems unlikely the Colts lean on the 26-year-old veteran for very much of 2023.

Even if that's the case, we've seen Minshew provide serviceable one-week production. This could make him an intriguing late-round QB to target on Underdog. Use the offer below to get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 and start drafting today.

QB35: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield

Mayfield is expected to compete with 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask for the starting job with Tom Brady allegedly retired.

Yes, Mayfield has spent the better part of the last two seasons being an objectively bad QB. 

Also yes, he has at least flashed more best-case upside than your typical low-level QB, setting the NFL record for touchdown passes by a rookie (27 before Justin Herbert broke it) and leading the Browns to their first playoff victory since 1994.

Getting to throw the football to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin represents an upgrade over his weapons in Cleveland, Carolina and Los Angeles (Cooper Kupp was already hurt) alike; it's possible that Mayfield can provide a few boom games over the course of an 18-week season. 

Still, the f*cking GOAT couldn't manage better than the QB16 in fantasy points per game in this offense last season; it's unlikely Mayfield emerges as anything more than a bye-week streamer in traditional re-draft fantasy leagues.

Tier 9: Expected backups with minimum best-case ceiling (QB36-38)

Deshaun Watson

Dec 11, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) and Cleveland Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7) talk between plays in the first quarter during a Week 14 NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

QB36: Commanders QB Jacoby Brissett

Washington has their veteran signal-caller. 

Expect Brissett to compete with rising second-year QB Sam Howell for the starting gig; head coach Ron Rivera previously said if a veteran QB beats out Howell for the Week 1 starting job “so be it.”

Brissett out-played Deshaun Watson in Cleveland last season, but unfortunately, his stellar efficiency stats didn't translate to anything resembling useful fantasy goodness.

Overall, Brissett ranked third in completion percentage over expected (+2.8%) and 11th in EPA per dropback (+0.12) among all QBs to play at least 300 snaps, yet he was just the QB18 in total fantasy points in Weeks 1 to 12 as the starter.

The Commanders certainly have ample weaponry in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel; just realize it's far from a given that Brissett will have too long of a leash should he regress closer to pre-2022 levels of play. 

Good news for the Washington weapons, but don't expect Brissett himself to be more than a bye-week streamer in most traditional fantasy formats even if he beats out Howell.

QB37: Buccaneers QB Kyle Trask

Trask is most known at this point for being dubbed a slow learner by his own QB coach; it’s tough to expect him to thrive in an offense that Tom f*cking Brady only managed to lead to the 25th-most points in 2022 – especially after the team went out of their way to sign presumed Week 1 starter Baker Mayfield.

QB38: Falcons QB Taylor Heinicke

The former Panthers and Commanders QB signing with the Falcons is more so good news for Desmond Ridder AND Sam Howell than it necessarily is for Heinicke himself.

While Heinicke deserves credit for his career 12-12-1 record as a starter, he ranks a lowly 25th in adjusted yards per attempt (6.6), 26th in completion rate (87.2%) and (most importantly) just 26th in fantasy points per game (13.5) among 34 QBs with 16-plus starts over the last two seasons.

Heinicke never managed to provide any level of high-end fantasy consistency in Washington; don't expect him to turn a corner in a more run-heavy offense with arguably fewer places to go with the football.