The NFL Draft will bring about change for all 32 teams in some way, shape or form. Not everyone gets to land Caleb Williams or another hopeful franchise QB, but that doesn’t make this weekend’s events any less exciting.

Football is in the air, baby.

What follows is one fantasy-related question for every team ahead of Thursday. As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Arizona Cardinals

  • Draft picks: 1.04, 1.27, 2.35, 2.66, 2.71, 2.90, 4.104, 5.138, 5.162, 6.186, 7. 226
  • Question: Just how high should Marvin Harrison Jr. be ranked in re-draft formats?

Harrison joining the Cardinals is pretty much the most common mock draft match after the first overall pick.

And for good reason: The latest stud Ohio State WR combines Hall of Fame bloodlines with elite production and pretty much broke Dwain McFarland’s Fantasy Life Rookie WR Super Model. Throw in the presence of a healthy Kyler Murray — who led the Cardinals to top-10 marks in EPA per play, yards per play and TD drive rate during his time under center last season — and it’s hard to not be enamored with the year-one possibilities here.

Just one problem: It will cost you. The WR9 (pick 15.7) in Underdog ADP, Harrison is already priced as an early second-round pick. It’s not impossible for top-10 picks to achieve these heights in their NFL debut, but it’s certainly not all that common.

Rookie production from top-10 overall WRs since 2010:

  • Ja'Marr Chase: 81 receptions-1455 yards-13 TD (WR5 in PPR points per game)
  • Garrett Wilson: 83-1103-4 (WR30)
  • Amari Cooper: 72-1070-6 (WR27)
  • A.J. Green: 65-1057-7 (WR16)
  • Mike Evans: 68-1051-12 (WR13)
  • Jaylen Waddle: 104-1015-6 (WR15)
  • Sammy Watkins: 65-982-6 (WR32)
  • Julio Jones: 54-959-8 (WR12)
  • DeVonta Smith: 64-916-5 (WR39)
  • Drake London: 72-866-4 (WR45)
  • Justin Blackmon: 64-865-5 (WR39)
  • Tavon Austin: 40-418-4 (WR48)
  • Corey Davis: 34-375-0 (WR76)
  • Mike Williams: 11-95-0 (WR128)
  • Kevin White: 0-0-0 (lol)
  • John Ross: 0-0-0 (lol)

Our Fantasy Life consensus rankers are each a bit lower on Maserati Marv (WR11, WR14, WR19) than the current market price — it’s fair to say the hype is getting just a bit out of control at the moment, at least for immediate 2024 purposes.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Draft picks: 1.08, 2.43, 3.74, 3.79, 4.109, 5.143, 6.187, 6.197
  • Question: Are the Falcons done adding to their receiver room?

On the one hand, having a WR trio of Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore to complement Kyle Pitts seems like reasonable enough weaponry to enable Kirk Cousins to some big-time passing numbers.

On the other, there’s a decent chance Atlanta has the option to select either Washington WR Rome Odunze or Georgia TE Brock Bowers with the eighth overall pick. The former certainly seems to be a better candidate than the latter — especially considering new head coach Raheem Morris’ recent comments on Pitts — either way, that’s a LOT of upside to potentially bypass.

Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman has the Falcons going with Alabama EDGE Dallas Turner in his latest mock draft. Boring? Maybe, but the move would make sense considering how meh this pass rush was in 2023:

  • Pressure rate: 32.7% (No. 24)
  • Pressure when not blitzing: 29.3% (No. 24)
  • Quick pressure rate (under 2.5 seconds): 11.6% (No. 31)

Baltimore Ravens

  • Draft picks: 1.30, 2.62, 3.93, 4.113, 4.130, 5.165, 6.218, 7.228, 7.250
  • Question: Is this offensive line going to be as good as usual?

PFF’s fifth-ranked o-line in 2023 certainly continued to function as one of the league’s better units, but there are some serious pieces to replace ahead of 2024:

  • LG John Simpson signed with the Jets in free agency.
  • RG Kevin Zeitler signed with the Lions.
  • RT Morgan Moses traded to the Jets.

This leaves the team with Andrew Vorhees (2023 7th rounder), Ben Cleveland (seven career starts) and Daniel Faalele (one career start) as the new projected starting guards and right tackle. 

Obviously, having a dual-threat talent like Lamar Jackson under center makes life a bit easier for everyone involved; just realize failure to re-solidify this typically formidable offensive front could lead to less gaping runways for new No. 1 RB Derrick Henry — which is no fun!

Buffalo Bills

  • Draft picks: 1.28, 2.60, 4.128, 4.133, 5.144, 5.160, 5.163, 6. 200, 6.204, 7.248
  • Question: Does this offense plan on adding a true No. 1 WR?

According to general manager Brandon Beane: Not really!

“No. What you need are guys that [in this offense] are smart, versatile, selfless and can make the plays that their skill set allows them to make.”

While the inclusion of “selfless” sure seems like a shot at a certain former Bills No. 1 WR, it’s tough to imagine that Beane is truly done adding to the position even if he’s high on the upside of Curtis Samuel (he’s versatile!), Khalil Shakir (he can make plays!) and Mack Hollins (he’s … interesting!). After all, the Bills are one of just four teams with under $15 million devoted to their WR room in 2024 (per Over The Cap).

Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman has the Bills solving this need in the form of LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. in his latest mock draft. Sign me up! The man can FLY.

Carolina Panthers

  • Draft picks: 2.33, 2.39, 3.65, 4.101, 4.141, 4.142, 7.240
  • Question: Is this offensive environment REALLY in a better place?

Kind of! This was a bottom-five supporting cast last season, after all. Bryce Young didn’t exactly elevate everyone — his penchant for letting pressured dropbacks result in sacks was particularly concerning — but there were some flashes along the way.

The big-name addition was Steelers WR Diontae Johnson, who consistently achieves one thing better than just about anyone: Separation.

However, arguably the even more impactful moves came down to improving the team’s big uglies. Huge bags of cash were thrown at former Dolphins RG Robert Hunt (five years, $100 million) as well as Seahawks LG Damien Lewis (four years, $53 million) to upgrade PFF’s reigning 29th-ranked offensive line.

Does this Dave Canales-led group suddenly look to be on the verge of ascending into the league’s top-10 scoring offenses? No, but at a minimum, Young should be in a better position to prove that he’s not a complete bust ahead of year two.

Chicago Bears

  • Draft picks: 1.01, 1.09, 3.75, 1.22
  • Question: What is the Bears’ plan with the ninth overall pick?

Everyone knows USC QB Caleb Williams is the pick at No. 1, but there are quite a few different directions that Da Bears could feasibly go with their other top-10 pick:

  • WR? The position is now a strength with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen holding down the fort, but the presence of Washington WR Rome Odunze or (less likely) LSU WR Malik Nabers at No. 9 could be too much to pass up with the team trying to maximize the supporting cast around Williams.
  • TE? This is not exactly a glaring need; Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett give the Bears the league’s seventh-most expensive TE room entering 2024. Still, Georgia TE Brock Bowers is arguably closer to being a slot WR than traditional TE. The Bears reportedly could be deciding between Bowers and Odunze here.
  • Trade down? The team only has four picks in the entire draft. Getting more shots at adding better depth to the offensive line and ascending defense would make sense from an overall roster construction standpoint.

Good news, Bears fans: Regardless of the eventual selection, Chicago will enter 2024 with more optimism in YEARS — and they’ve seemingly already ensured that Williams will have a competent (read: great) group of pass-catchers around him. Maybe just maybe this will help enable the franchise’s first great QB … ever? (Fine, since Sid Luckman.)

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Draft picks: 1.18, 2.49, 3.80, 3.97, 4.115, 5.149, 6.194, 6.214, 7.224, 7.237
  • Question: How high of a pick will the team use to add another pass-catcher?

It looks like Tee Higgins has accepted that he’ll once again be a Bengal for at least the 2024 season, but the offense still has to (seemingly) replace current free agent WR Tyler Boyd and could also look to make a bigger investment at TE considering their current committee features Mike Gesicki, Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson.

I tend to lean toward the Bengals addressing their WR room before adding a TE. After all, Tyler Eifert (1.21, 2013) marks the only TE since 2011 the Bengals felt good enough about to use a top-50 pick on, and this offense has spent the better part of recent years ignoring the position since drafting Ja’Marr Chase in 2021. In terms of expected PPR points per game from Bengals TEs:

  • 2021: 7.6 (No. 31)
  • 2022: 9 (No. 27)
  • 2023: 10.8 (No. 20)

Neither Trenton Irwin nor Andrei Iosivas exactly profile as the sort of low-aDOT/YAC-friendly slot WR that this offense could use — someone like Florida WR Ricky Pearsall or Michigan WR Roman Wilson would make a lot of sense on day two.

Cleveland Browns

  • Draft picks: 2.54, 3.85, 5.156, 6.206, 7.227, 7.243
  • Question: Could the Browns add one more WR to this offense?

Nobody is doubting Amari Cooper’s standing as a legit No. 1 WR, but the rest of this WR room didn’t exactly make a habit of balling out in 2023:

  • Jerry Jeudy was responsible for some truly brutal moments during his last hoorah with the Broncos. It’s not good when your most memorable moment was getting brutally harassed by Steve Smith Sr. on national television. Ultimately, Jeudy has reached 80 yards in just seven of his 57 career games.
  • Elijah Moore’s 651 total yards and two TDs weren’t exactly what anyone had in mind following LOADS of offseason hype. He was ESPN’s 81st-highest-ranked WR on the season and ranked just 66th in yards per route run (1.14).
  • Cedric Tillman failed to gain more than 55 yards or catch more than four passes in a game despite being given a full-time role after Cleveland traded Donovan Peoples-Jones to the Lions during the middle of last season.
  • David Bell ranks 107th in yards per target (6.6) among 129 WRs with at least 50 targets over the past two years.
  • Michael Woods is coming off a ruptured Achilles and suspension; the former sixth-round pick caught just five passes in 10 games as a rookie in 2022.

The list of Browns WRs drafted since 2010 is … horrific. The only real hit was Josh Gordon, and even he was a Round 2 supplemental pick who (sadly) didn’t exactly provide long-term excellence.

Considering this organization’s history of taking on players with less-than-stellar off-the-field resumes: It’d make sense if Cleveland takes a long look at Alabama WR Jermaine Burton, who boasts a legit early-round profile when strictly looking at his on-field ability.

Dallas Cowboys

  • Draft picks: 1.24, 2.56, 3.87, 5.174, 6.216, 7.233, 7.244
  • Question: Who will be RB1?

The Cowboys’ “all in” approach to 2024 still has them in dire need of replacing multiple starters across the offensive line as well as at RB. Tony Pollard took his talents to Nashville, leaving the Cowboys with an RB room consisting of Rico Dowdle, Royce Freeman, Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis and Snoop Conner.

This leaves them with a whopping 252 carries (69%) and 66 targets (70%) available. There isn’t another backfield in the league that looks more ready to draft their new workhorse RB on Friday.

After all, Cowboys RBs were pretty mediocre as a whole already in 2023.

Cowboys team RB performance in 2023

  • PFF rush grade: 79.1 (No. 15)
  • Yards per carry: 3.9 (No. 24)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 2.8 (tied for No. 16)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.16 (tied for No. 18)

Jonathan Brooks? Blake Corum? Trey Benson? Whomever the Cowboys end up adding will assuredly rocket up the fantasy ranks. 

Denver Broncos

  • Draft picks: 1.12, 3.76, 4.121, 5.136, 5.145, 5.147, 6.203, 6.207
  • Question: Is Sean Payton REALLY about to enter May with Zach Wilson as his QB1?

I guess Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci are also in the equation. Shoutout to the latter QB for:

  1. This hilarious sidearm incompletion.
  2. The best Tweet ever.

OK, back on topic: There’s no way Sean Payton unretired to coach his apparent archnemesis Russell Wilson for one season before settling for a QB competition between three objectively mediocre QBs, right? RIGHT?

I’m going with a hard no. Payton said as much himself, noting:

“You’d say it sure looks like we have to draft a quarterback and yet it’s got to be the right fit, the right one. If we had tip sheets as to what everybody else is picking it would be easier to answer that question. And so, that’s the puzzle here.”

Oregon QB Bo Nix has been the common match in mocks, but it remains to be seen if that’s the move at pick No. 12, or if the Broncos will look to roll the dice and trade up into the early parts of Round 2.

There has also been some trade buzz surrounding incumbent No. 1 WR Courtland Sutton. One way or another, look for the Broncos to make some serious fantasy-relevant headlines this weekend.

Detroit Lions

  • Draft picks: 1.29, 2.61, 3.73, 5.164, 6.201, 6.205, 7.249
  • Question: Is it finally Jameson Williams undisputed WR2 szn?

The rising third-year receiver certainly flashed as a deep threat and with some solid YAC in 2023, but at the end of the day: Williams has just 464 total yards and four scores across 18 regular season games since being drafted with the No. 12 overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Jameson Williams

Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams makes a catch for a touchdown against 49ers cornerback Deommodore Lenoir during the second half of the Lions' 34-31 loss in the NFC championship game in Santa Clara, California, on Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024.

Of course, the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and PFF’s reigning second-ranked offensive line already form one of the single-best supporting casts that any QB could ask for; the NFL’s fifth-ranked scoring offense from a season ago has been just fine featuring Williams as little more than a field-stretching complementary option.

And yet, the departure of Josh Reynolds suddenly leaves the Lions without their second-most used WR (64 targets, 70.6% regular-season snap rate) from 2023. It’s suddenly more than reasonable to project Williams for the biggest role of his career … if his competition remains Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones as opposed to a new day-one or day-two talent at the position.

Green Bay Packers

  • Draft picks: 1.25, 2.41, 2.58, 3.88, 3.91, 4.126, 5.169, 6.202, 6.219, 7.245, 7.255
  • Question: Will Josh Jacobs face any truly meaningful competition?

The team did re-sign A.J. Dillon, but that was after the Packers signed up to make Jacobs the league’s fifth-highest-paid RB in terms of annual dollars ($12 million). This should set up Jacobs for one of the league’s bigger roles, which could prove to be quite fantasy-friendly inside of a Packers offense that was as good as any in the league during the second half of last season.

Jacobs is only 26 years old and is just one year removed from working as the NFL’s leading rusher … but he was also objectively one of the league’s least efficient rushers last season.

Jacobs among 49 RBs with 90-plus carries in 2023

  • PFF rush grade: 70.1 (No. 40)
  • Explosive run play rate: 3.9% (No. 48)
  • Yards per carry above expected: -0.37 (No. 41)
  • Yards per carry: 3.5 (No. 44)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 2.4 (No. 46)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.12 (tied for No. 43)

The second metric above is particularly concerning: Jacobs joined Dillon as two of the league’s least-explosive RBs in 2023.

This sort of inefficiency will be a lot harder to ignore if the Packers decide to use one of their five (!) top-100 picks on the position. Jacobs as the clear 1.A ahead of Dillon is fine, but things will get a bit messier than fantasy managers would prefer if Green Bay adds a pass-down complement to the equation.

Houston Texans

  • Draft picks: 2.42, 2.59, 3.86, 4.123, 4.127, 6.188, 6.189, 7.238, 7.247
  • Question: Will Joe Mixon face any truly meaningful competition?

Basically the same conversation applies here as it does in Green Bay: Mixon looks like the locked-and-loaded workhorse RB1 inside of a high-scoring offense with the only competition being incumbent backups. While Mixon’s three-year, $27 million extension doesn’t initially seem as gaudy on paper as Jacobs’ four-year, $48 million deal, the $13 million in guaranteed money to the former back is actually more than what the latter ($12.5 million) is getting.

Look, I got sucked into the Dameon Pierce hype last preseason too — it happens — but the man played *six* total postseason snaps as the team’s RB3 behind Devin Singletary and even Dare Ogunbowale.

Right now, Mixon’s RB15 (pick 56.5) Underdog ADP is lagging mightily behind fellow projected workhorse RBs coming off objectively bad seasons in terms of rushing efficiency BUT exist in solid offenses like Saquon Barkley (RB6, 15.3), Jacobs (RB9, 28.5) and Rachaad White (RB13, 47.8). I’m not necessarily against those RBs, but it feels like Mixon’s well-known meh efficiency numbers are being held against him more than others.

Opportunity rules all at RB, and Mixon will be projected to carry one of the NFL’s largest workloads if the Texans refrain from using one of their top draft picks on the position.

Indianapolis Colts

  • Draft picks: 1.15, 2.46, 3.82, 4.117, 5.151, 6.191, 7.234
  • Question: Are the Colts about to add a legit No. 2 WR to this offense?

Good Morning Football’s Peter Schrager had a great appearance on The Pat McAfee Show last week and noted the following tidbit:

“If the Cardinals stay at four, I'm told that Marvin Harrison is the pick, but they could move out. ... I think there's a chance the Colts move up for Harrison, (Malik) Nabers or (Rome) Odunze.”

Recently extended WR Michael Pittman is fresh off a career-best 109-1,152-4 campaign and profiles as a solid No. 1 option for Anthony Richardson, and rising second-year talent Josh Downs looks like a more-than-capable solid slot WR. That said: It would be interesting to see the team upgrade from Alec Pierce, who is ESPN’s eighth-worst-rated WR over the last two seasons.

One of the greatest team-building advantages in the modern NFL is having extra resources to build around a high-end QB operating on a rookie deal. If anyone is going to make a splash next Thursday night, it’d make sense if it’s the team with the seventh-most effective cap space and three selections inside of the draft's top 82 picks to work with.

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Draft picks: 1.17, 2.48, 3.96, 4.114, 4.116, 5.153, 6.212, 7.236
  • Question: Will Trevor Lawrence be getting some additional help on the outside?

Swapping out Calvin Ridley for Gabe Davis probably isn’t exactly what most Jaguars fans had in mind for this offseason. Don’t get me wrong: The Jaguars’ decisions to bring in former Bills C Mitch Morse, re-sign LG Ezra Cleveland and restructure RG Brandon Sherff’s contract were necessary and should improve PFF’s reigning 27th-ranked offensive line, but it’s tough to feel too much better about a group of pass-catchers who were responsible for a LOT of near-miss TDs last season.

While the Jaguars already boast the league’s fifth-most expensive WR room between Davis, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, the group is noticeably lacking a true lid-lifting threat on the outside. Whether that comes in the first-round form of LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. or more of a day-two type like Oregon WR Troy Franklin: It’d be surprising to see the Jaguars make it to Saturday without at least one new pass-catcher on the squad.

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Draft picks: 1.32, 2.64, 3.95, 4.131, 5.159, 5.173, 7.221
  • Question: Are the Chiefs going to use any of their top-100 picks at RB or WR?

If not, Isiah Pacheco should once again be a threat for 300-plus touches with good health, while guys like Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice (pending suspension) and Marquise Brown would also be enticing fantasy options at cost considering the potential for Patrick Mahomes’ TD rate to spike back to north of six percent like it has following his other “down” years.

Reminder: This Chiefs offense usually operates as one of the league’s single-most prolific units when they have a healthy No. 15 under center:

  • 2018: 35.3 points per game (No. 1)
  • 2019: 28.2 (No. 5)
  • 2020: 29.6 (No. 6)
  • 2021: 28.2 (No. 4)
  • 2022: 29.2 (No. 1)
  • 2023: 21.8 (No. 15)

Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman has previously had the Chiefs turn to speedy Texas WR Xavier Worthy, but he’s changed it up with Texas WR A.D. Mitchell in his latest mock draft. Their ultimate decisions with the 1.32, 2.64 and 3.95 selections will go a long way toward solidifying the projected pecking order of this ever-lethal passing attack. 

Las Vegas Raiders

  • Draft picks: 1.13, 2.44, 3.77, 4.112, 5.148, 6.208, 7.223, 7.229
  • Question: Who will be the Raiders’ starting QB come Week 1?

I am going to be PISSED if it’s April 28 and the Raiders are unironically entering 2024 with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell as their top two QBs.

Yes, Minshew helped keep the Colts competitive last season and hilariously earned a Pro Bowl nod.

Also yes, these were two below-average NFL QBs last season by virtually any advanced metric:

Among 32 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2023:

  • EPA per dropback: Minshew (+0.022, 22nd), O’Connell (-0.038, 25th)
  • Completion percentage over expected: Minshew (-3.3%, 31st), O’Connell (-3.9%, 32nd)
  • PFF pass grade: Minshew (60.6, 27th), O’Connell (64.6, 25th)
  • Passer rating: Minshew (84.6, 23rd), O’Connell (83.9, 25th)
  • Yards per attempt: Minshew (6.7, 23rd), O’connell (6.5, 25th)

Peep that second stat from the top: Minshew and O’Connell were arguably the two least accurate QBs in all of football last season.

Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. has been a popular match, but it remains to be seen if the Raiders are looking to make that happen in Round 1 or 2. I guess we’ll find out soon!

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Draft picks: 1.05, 2.37, 3.69, 4.105, 4.110, 5.140, 6.181, 7.225, 7.253
  • Question: Is Justin Herbert going to, you know, have a decent WR to throw the football to?

The Chargers’ WR room currently consists of just four men:

  • Quentin Johnston: The 2023 first-round pick posted a brutal season-long 38-431-2 receiving line last season, notably registering ESPN’s fourth-worst Open Rating among 109 qualified WRs.
  • Joshua Palmer: By far the most proven WR on the Chargers at the moment, which is a really depressing thing to actually type out. Kudos to Palmer for posting career-best marks in receiving yards per game (58.1) and yards per target (9.5) last season; it’d still be a helluva lot cooler if he was set to be the No. 4 WR than … the No. 1?
  • Derius Davis: Pint-sized (5-foot-8, 165 pounds) speedster nearly had as many carries (14) as receptions (15) last season; Davis is more of a return specialist/gadget offensive weapon than someone expected to compete for a full-time WR job.
  • Simi Fehoko: Has four career receptions since entering the NFL back in 2021.

Former Jaguars, Lions and Panthers WR D.J. Chark was also in the building recently, but adding another bottom-10 WR in ESPN’s Open Rating to the equation doesn’t exactly move the needle.

The possibilities are endless. LSU WR Malik Nabers or Georgia TE Brock Bowers at pick No. 5? Texas WR A.D. Mitchell or Oregon WR Troy Franklin in Round 2? Both?! ANYTHING, PLEASE.

Los Angeles Rams

  • Draft picks: 1.19, 2.52, 3.83, 3.99, 5.154, 5.155, 6.196, 6.209, 6.213, 6.217, 7.254
  • Question: Will this still be the Kyren Williams workhorse RB show in 2024?

Obviously, Williams is fully expected to work as the Rams’ lead back next season, but this was one of the league’s only true every-down RBs last year.

Kyren Williams

Jan 14, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) runs during the second half of a 2024 NFC wild card game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

The following RBs were the only players to post multiple games with a snap rate north of 90%:

  • Saquon Barkley (x5)
  • Christian McCaffrey (x4)
  • Kyren Williams (x4)
  • Zack Moss (x2)
  • Ezekiel Elliott (x2, lol)

Williams joined CMC as the only two RBs to average north of 20 *expected* PPR points per game; the rising third-year talent has a large margin for error with his current workload. The addition of a day-two RB might make drafters hesitate just a bit before pulling the trigger on Williams at the Round 1-2 turn.

Miami Dolphins

  • Draft picks: 1.21, 2.55, 5.158, 6.184, 6.198, 7.241
  • Question: Will this still be a two-headed backfield in 2024?

Electric second-year RB De’Von Achane had his blistering start to the year undone by a sprained MCL, but he did return by Week 13. Keeping this in mind with Raheem Mostert missing the final two weeks of the regular season gives us an eight-game sample to work with:

  • De’Von Achane: 239 snaps, 83-640-7 rushing, 34 targets, 23-175-2 receiving
  • Raheem Mostert: 236 snaps, 96-416-9 rushing, 20 targets, 18-123-2 receiving

This backfield was truly split right down the middle, with Achane holding the slight edge in receiving usage and overall efficiency.

Early drafters don’t seem to be acknowledging just how close the touch counts here were, as Achane (RB8, pick 18.7 ADP) is going more than five rounds ahead of Mostert (RB22, 82.9). This would make the latter veteran a screaming value … if we make it to next Monday without the Dolphins using one of their top-60 picks on the position.

Minnesota Vikings

  • Draft picks: 1.11, 1.23, 4.108, 4.129, 5.157, 5.167, 6.177, 7.230, 7.232
  • Question: Who will be the new Vikings QB1?

Right now that man is Sam Darnold, but hopefully that’s not still the case by this time next week: The No. 3 overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft has been one of the game's least efficient QBs since entering the league by almost any commonly used advanced metric.

Darnold among 76 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks since 2018

  • EPA per dropback: -0.046 (No. 63)
  • Completion percentage over expected: -2% (No. 61)
  • PFF pass grade: 59.7 (No. 60)
  • Passer rating: 78.3 (No. 67)
  • Yards per attempt: 6.7 (No. 56)

Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman has the Vikings solving this need in the form of Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy in his latest mock draft. Yes. Sure. Fine. Just not Darnold. Cool? Cool.

New England Patriots

  • Draft picks: 1.03, 2.34, 3.68, 4.103, 5.137, 6.180, 6.193, 7.231
  • Question: Who will be under center for the Patriots for most of 2024?

Journeyman Jacoby Brissett is slotted to be that guy, pal, for now. Kudos to the veteran for leading the Commanders to a TD on all five of his meaningful drives last season, but it’d be surprising to not see New England add their real future signal-caller with the third overall pick.

While the J.J. McCarthy hype train won’t stop rolling, the Patriots are tentatively expected to roll with either LSU QB Jayden Daniels or North Carolina QB Drake Maye.

Any of these QBs landing here vs. Washington or (especially) Minnesota would objectively be a downgrade to their 2024 fantasy stock — this offense is tentatively expected to start K.J. Osborn, Kendrick Bourne and DeMario Douglas in three WR sets, after all. Maybe new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt rapidly improves the upside of the NFL’s reigning 31st-ranked scoring offense; just realize this landing spot seems to be the primary reason for why USC QB Caleb Williams (QB12, pick 104.9 ADP) and Daniels (QB18, pick 127) are going off the board so much earlier than Maye (QB22, pick 152.1) at the moment.

New Orleans Saints

  • Draft picks: 1.14, 2.45, 5.150, 5.168, 5.170, 5.175, 6.190, 6.199, 7.239
  • Question: Is it finally Rashid Shaheed WR2 season?

The departure of Michael Thomas leaves Chris Olave, Shaheed and one of Cedrick Wilson Jr., A.T. Perry or Equanimeous St. Brown as Derek Carr’s starting three WRs.

Obviously, Olave will work as the alpha No. 1, but don’t underestimate Shaheed’s chances of also making some noise in fantasy land. The field-stretching maestro proved capable of running past just about anyone last year and leads the NFL in yards per target (11.1) among all pass-catchers with triple-digit targets over the past two seasons.

Fans were briefly treated to a lead No. 2 role for Shaheed down the stretch of last season with Thomas injured, and the former undrafted free agent responded with PPR WR58, WR17, WR78 and WR22 finishes to end the season. Nobody should be expecting season-long top-24 production here, but don’t be surprised if Shaheed proves capable of supplying some boom-or-bust WR3 goodness — especially if the Saints refrain from spending too high of a pick on newfound competition.

New York Giants

  • Draft picks: 1.06, 2.47, 3.70, 4.107, 5.166, 6.183
  • Question: Will Daniel Jones still be the team’s undisputed QB1 this time next week?

It’s basically impossible for the Giants to get out of Jones’ contract before 2025, but that doesn’t mean they can’t try to find their future franchise signal-caller in the early parts of this draft.

Adding any of the big four QBs would seemingly immediately spark a competition of sorts, but if not? Jones will suddenly profile as a *throws up in mouth a little bit* value in fantasy land.

Remember: Don’t hate the player, hate the ADP, and Jones (QB31, pick 208.6) is essentially free at the moment. As mediocre as he’s been since entering the league back in 2019, “Vanilla Vick” has provided some decent fantasy value more years than not (at least relative to his current price):

  • 2019: 16.5 fantasy points per game (QB15)
  • 2020: 12.9 (QB29)
  • 2021: 15.1 (QB18)
  • 2022: 18.1 (QB8)
  • 2023: 9.5 (QB34

New York Jets

  • Draft picks: 1.10, 3.72, 4.111, 4.134, 6.185, 7.256, 7.257
  • Question: Who will be the team’s TE1 in 2024?

Georgia TE Brock Bowers has been a popular pick for the Jets at 10th overall, and Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman agrees in his latest mock draft.

Adding another high-end pass-catcher to the equation would certainly be a nice boost for Aaron Rodgers and the upside of this scoring offense in general. But if not? Suddenly Tyler Conklin would profile as a pretty solid value (TE24, pick 194) as the lead TE in an offense that fed him 87 targets in each of the past two seasons.

Side note: Conklin also had 87 targets in 2021 with the Vikings. Three straight seasons with exactly 87 targets. And some people still want to believe that we don’t live in a simulation.

Anyway, Conklin will be a volume-based, TD-dependent TE2 as the Jets’ starting TE in 2024 should the front office refrain from adding serious competition this weekend. Not the most exciting upside in the world, although this profile would be worth pursuing in the later rounds of best ball drafts.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Draft picks: 1.22, 2.50, 2.53, 4.120, 5.161, 5.171, 5.172, 6.210
  • Question: Will this offensive line still be elite in 2024?

PFF’s reigning No. 1 ranked group has more question marks than usual ahead of next season. Future HOF C Jason Kelce retired, and longtime stalwart RT Lane Johnson turns 34 in May.

Nobody is expecting this o-line to fall off a cliff; they still have the ninth-most 2024 dollars devoted to the group as a whole. Still, the rushing upside of Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley is typically viewed through the lens of them working behind easily the league’s best offensive line; failure to dominate the trenches could prove to be problematic to the team’s tush-push short-yardage cheat code.

Fixing the secondary should be priority No. 1; just realize it’d be surprising if the team doesn’t devote at least one of their three top-53 picks to the big uglies up front.

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Draft picks: 1.20, 2.51, 3.84, 3.98, 4.119, 6.178, 6.195
  • Question: Who will join George Pickens on the outside in two-WR sets?

Here’s to hoping the answer is not Van Jefferson, Quez Watkins or Calvin Austin. With all due respect to those complementary options: Legit high-end investment is needed inside of a WR room with just $12.1 million being spent in 2024 — the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL ahead of only the Bills, Packers and Chargers.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had an interesting potential match with their first-round pick: LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr.:

“This might be his floor. If he doesn't go off the board before 20, I do think this might be the floor for him. I've heard they love Brian Thomas. Everyone wants them to take another character faller on Day 2. My impression of the Steelers is that they're... kind of sick of that. Understandably so based on the last few seasons. I think they'd love to just hit a home run with a guy like Brian Thomas in the first round.”

Nobody is expecting new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to deploy the league’s most pass-happy attack, but at a minimum it’d make sense if they use at least one of their four top-100 picks to add some extra competition to the position.

San Francisco 49ers

  • Draft picks: 1.31, 2.63, 3.94, 4.124, 4.132, 4.135, 5.176, 6.211, 6.215, 7.251
  • Question: Could one of these WRs be on the move?

Hopefully not for Brock Purdy’s sake:

  • Brandon Aiyuk’s blend of route-running goodness and playmaking ability is nearly unmatched around the league; the man is fresh off averaging the most yards per target (12.8) since the metric began being tracked back in 1992 (min. 100 targets).
  • Deebo Samuel leads all non-QBs in yards per carry (6.3) since entering the NFL and also has posted top-three numbers in yards after the catch above expected per reception in each of the past four seasons. Yeah, he’s pretty damn good with the football in his hands.

This was arguably the single-best supporting cast in the NFL last season; failure to keep the band together could make it tough for this group to repeat their status as the league’s third-best scoring offense.

It would also make No. 3 WR/badass blocker Jauan Jennings a value at his basically free ADP (WR103, 236.6 ADP). Just saying!

Seattle Seahawks

  • Draft picks: 1.16, 3.81, 4.102, 4.118, 6.179, 6.192, 7.235
  • Question: Are we POSITIVE Geno Smith will be the Seahawks’ Week 1 starting QB?

Smith has worked as the league’s best QB in completion percentage over expected (+4.2%) over the past two seasons and also stands out as one of the game’s better signal-callers at not letting pressures be converted into sacks.

That said, the wording on two Adam Schefter tweets makes me believe that there could be something brewing here in dem trade streets:

  • The Seahawks announced they were keeping Smith on the roster on Feb. 15, locking in $12.7 million guaranteed. HOWEVER, Schefter’s follow-up tweet noted: “Now Geno Smith will represent a value to them — or any other team that decides to reach out to see if it can acquire Smith via trade.”
  • Many assumed the Seahawks trading for Commanders QB Sam Howell was more of a depth move, but Schefter’s wording upon announcing the trade was interesting: “Seattle has long liked QB Sam Howell. Now, with Drew Lock signing with the Giants, Howell can compete with Geno Smith for the Seahawks starting QB job.”

Smith on the Raiders or Broncos wouldn’t exactly result in a major shift when it comes to Super Bowl odds, but his presence would certainly be a nice boost for the associated pass-catchers involved in fantasy land.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Draft picks: 1.26, 2.57, 3.89, 3.92, 4.125, 6.220, 7.246
  • Question: Will this still be the Rachaad White workhorse RB1 show in 2024?

Only Christian McCaffrey (79%) played a higher percentage of his offense’s snaps than White (78%) last season. This accordingly led to a whopping 336 touches, which made up for some truly brutal inefficiency on the ground:

White among 49 RBs with 100-plus carries in 2023

  • PFF rushing grade: 66.7 (No. 43)
  • Yards per carry: 3.6 (No. 40)
  • Yards per carry above expected: -0.41 (No. 44)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 2.5 (No. 42)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.14 (No. 35)
  • Explosive run play rate: 7.7% (No. 38)

Don’t get it twisted: White is a legit GOOD receiver and accordingly graded out as ESPN’s third-best option out of the backfield. There’s little doubt that White will continue to be the lead back in Tampa Bay, but the addition of more of a true early-down grinder complement could make high-end production at least a bit more difficult to come by inside of the league’s reigning 20th-ranked scoring offense.

Tennessee Titans

  • Draft picks: 1.07, 2.38, 4.106, 5.146, 6.182, 7.242, 7.252
  • Question: Are the Titans content to move forward with JUST Will Levis next season?

There is certainly plenty of skill-position talent available between DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and the team’s pair of receiving-friendly RBs. Adding resources to PFF’s reigning 32nd-ranked offensive line certainly makes a lot of sense, but are we POSITIVE that Tennessee won’t attempt to make a splash under center under new head coach Brian Callahan?

Levis certainly had some flashes last season, most notably throwing four TDs in his NFL debut … but then again he only threw four additional TDs across his next eight starts combined.

Adding a receiver like Ridley should help matters, but Levis has a long way to go to be considered even an average NFL QB by most reputable advanced metrics:

Levis among 48 QBs with 100-plus dropbacks in 2023

  • EPA per dropback: -0.033 (No. 31)
  • Completion percentage over expected: -0.4% (No. 26)
  • PFF pass grade: 61.6 (No. 32)
  • Passer rating: 84.2 (No. 30)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.1 (No. 21)

Washington Commanders

  • Draft picks: 1.02, 2.36, 2.40, 3.67, 3.78, 3.100, 5.139, 5.152, 7.222
  • Question: Who is the pick at No. 2?

Betting odds favored LSU QB Jayden Daniels for most of the offseason, but North Carolina QB Drake Maye and even Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy has tightened things up in recent days.

This offense isn’t exactly overflowing with skill-position talent, although Terry McLaurin remains one of the more underrated No. 1 WRs in the league, and rising third-year receiver Jahan Dotson at least flashed some solid upside as a rookie before disappointing in 2023.

That said: This group certainly seems to be superior to what the Patriots are working with this season, making the ultimate decision a big one in fantasy land when it comes to figuring out where Daniels, Maye and McCarthy fall in the ole ranks.