It is time to make those tough fantasy football lineup decisions for Super Bowl Weekend.
Below you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, betting totals, and implied points for every game on the slate.
Find all of our positional rankings here.
Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers – Super Bowl
Last updated: 7:00 pm, Wednesday, February 8th. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!
Quarterback
| Tier | Pos Rank | Player | Opp | Game Total | Spread | Team Total | PPG |
| 1 | QB1 | Jalen Hurts | vs KC | 50.5 | -1.5 | 26.00 | 24.8 |
| 1 | QB2 | Patrick Mahomes II | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 24.2 |
Tier 1 – Jalen Hurts
Hurts averaged 26.7 points per game before his Week 15 injury that caused him to miss two games. Over the last three games, his average has dropped to 15.9 points. However, those three outings present a unique set of circumstances.
Over the last three games, the Eagles have led by four-plus points on 75% of plays and have trailed by that amount 0% of the time. Philadelphia’s half-time lead in each game:
- Week 18: 16 points
- Divisional Round: 28 points
- Conference Championship: 14 points
In the Super Bowl, the Eagles face the Chiefs, who are tied with Philadelphia for the most points per game (28.7). The two teams are also tied for first place in drives converted to TDs, with 32%, which sets this game up for very different conditions than two matchups against the Giants and a QB-less 49ers team. Plus, no lead is safe against Patrick Mahomes – expect Hurts to be closer to his pre-injury 248 passing yards per game.
The Chiefs rank 19th in passing yards allowed per game (221), but most of that ranking ties to leading game scripts. Kansas City allows the sixth-lowest passing yards per attempt (6.0). However, the Eagles are the No. 3 TD-scoring team inside the red zone (69%), and the Chiefs are the third-worst defense in that scenario, allowing a TD 67% of the time.
Hurts might not have a 300-yard passing game, but a multi-score game through the air plus a rushing TD could be in the works. No QB in the NFL handles more of their team’s designed rush attempts than Hurts (23%).
Look for Hurts’ fantasy production to rebound in a big way this weekend with a 25-plus point performance.
Tier 1 – Patrick Mahomes
Never doubt Mahomes. Admittedly, I did it last week, and I don’t think the reasoning was terrible, but it doesn’t change the fact that I was wrong.
Similar to Hurts, Mahomes saw a dip in fantasy production over his last three games. He averaged 25.4 points over the first 16 games but dipped to 17.8 points since Week 18. However, like Hurts, there is context to be considered.
- Week 18: The Chiefs were up 21 points at half.
- Divisional Round: Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain.
- Conference Championship: Mahomes lost Kadarius Toney, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Mecole Hardman.
The last point will be the most important one heading into a tough matchup against the No. 1 pass rush (90.2) and No. 2 coverage unit (89.9), according to PFF grades. The Eagles allow the fewest yards per attempt (5.4) and are the No. 1 EPA pass defense.
However, if Mahomes has Toney and Smith-Schuster back, none of Philadelphia’s accolades may matter. The superstar QB faced top-10 EPA pass defenses on seven occasions this year and averaged 333 yards and 2.6 passing TDs per game. He eclipsed 300 yards in six of seven games.
The Eagles' defense is legit, but Mahomes has proven to be matchup-proof – think of him like you would any other week unless Toney and Smith-Schuster are out.
Running Back
| Tier | Pos Rank | Player | Opp | Game Total | Spread | Team Total | PPG |
| 1 | RB1 | Miles Sanders | vs KC | 50.5 | -1.5 | 26.00 | 13.0 |
| 2 | RB2 | Isiah Pacheco | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 8.6 |
| 2 | RB3 | Jerick McKinnon | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 10.6 |
| 3 | RB4 | Kenneth Gainwell | vs KC | 50.5 | -1.5 | 26.00 | 6.1 |
| 4 | RB5 | Boston Scott | vs KC | 50.5 | -1.5 | 26.00 | 3.7 |
| 4 | RB6 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 9.8 |
| 5 | RB7 | Ronald Jones II | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 2.3 |
Tier 1 – Miles Sanders
Sanders hasn’t eclipsed 40% of rushing attempts, and his snap shares are down since Week 17.
| Week | Snaps | Rush Att | Routes | Targets | TPRR | SDD Snaps | i5 Att | LDD Snaps | 2MIN Snaps | PPR |
| 17 | 40% | 75% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 60% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 6.1 |
| 18 | 40% | 37% | 28% | 3% | 8% | 20% | 50% | 9% | 0% | 3.3 |
| DIV | 40% | 40% | 26% | 0% | 0% | 29% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| CC | 30% | 25% | 27% | 4% | 13% | 29% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.5 |
| YTD | 55% | 48% | 42% | 5% | 10% | 56% | 24% | 10% | 7% | 13.0 |
However, due to large leads, the fourth-year RB has only played 23% of second-half snaps over the last three games. The Eagles have played only three second-half snaps without at least a seven-point lead in that span.
With the Eagles only favored by 1.5 points, we shouldn’t expect such a low second-half workload for Sanders. He handled 64% of Philadelphia’s snaps and 55% of rushing attempts during the third and fourth quarters in the regular season when games were within seven points.
No team led by four-plus points more than the Eagles in the regular season. However, in the five games where they led by four-plus on 35% or fewer plays, Sanders averaged 61% of rushing attempts.
The Chiefs are a middle-of-the-pack run defense, giving up a positive EPA run on 45% of attempts (12th). However, they have led by four-plus points the third-most (41%), which has kept teams from consistently testing them. According to PFF, the Eagles have the No. 3 run-blocking unit grade (76.1) and they’re going up against the No. 18 graded run defense (62.4).
Sanders should register a high-end utilization game and has a chance to go off against a suspect run defense. While he hasn’t been used much in the passing game this year, his targets per route (TPRR) are encouraging against Kansas City’s primary coverage schemes. A 10% target share isn’t out of the question in this matchup.
Sanders is the No. 1 RB on the slate and has multiple edges lining up in his favor that point to a better-than-average game. Taking the over on 60.5 rushing yards (-110) at BetMGM is one of my favorite props this weekend.
Tier 2 – Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco set a season-high in snaps (57%) and route participation (50%) in the Championship Game and has scored 10-plus fantasy points in 10 consecutive outings. He has established himself as the primary rushing option, handling 50% or more of the carries in nine of 11 games.
While the 50% route participation is encouraging, the Chiefs only played eight of 65 snaps in long-down-and-distance situations against the Bengals, which kept Pacheco on the field more often. Pacheco still gives way to Jerick McKinnon for most of the passing-down work.
If the Eagles have a weakness, it’s that their run defense allows the ninth-most yards per carry and ranks 18th in DvP. Similar to the Chiefs, they have avoided major blowout games by opponents thanks to leading game scripts, where they rank first.
Pacheco doesn’t carry the same ceiling as McKinnon, but he has a solid floor and could get slightly more involved in the passing game if the Chiefs are down multiple WRs.
Tier 2 – Jerick McKinnon
The TD-variance equation has caught up with McKinnon. After scoring an astounding nine TDs over a six game span, he has come up empty in the last two games.
As a result, his fantasy production dropped off a cliff. However, his volume hasn’t changed much. Over the six game stretch, he averaged 10.7 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) per game versus 9.5 over the last two.
The biggest change has been targets, which dropped from five to two per game. Yet, the underlying utilization data tells us that could come back quickly – McKinnon remains the Chiefs' primary option on passing downs (see LDD and 2MIN Snaps below).
| Week | Snaps | Rush Att | Routes | Targets | TPRR | SDD Snaps | i5 Att | LDD Snaps | 2MIN Snaps | PPR |
| 17 | 48% | 13% | 43% | 15% | 32% | 60% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 22.6 |
| 18 | 36% | 8% | 44% | 13% | 23% | 40% | 0% | 80% | 100% | 8.6 |
| DIV | 65% | 39% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 71% | 50% | 100% | 0% | 2.5 |
| CC | 39% | 24% | 33% | 10% | 25% | 20% | 0% | 83% | 67% | 3.8 |
| YTD | 47% | 20% | 48% | 11% | 19% | 48% | 26% | 89% | 85% | 10.6 |
This week against the Eagles, there is a reason for optimism about McKinnon in the passing game. He ranks as the Chiefs' No. 2 TPRR option against Cover 3 (21%), Quarters (23%), and Cover 1 (16%), the top three coverage schemes deployed by Philadelphia.
McKinnon has scored six or fewer points in eight of 19 contests, but that doesn’t change his ceiling potential. The veteran RB is one of five-non QBs in the Super Bowl with a legit 25-point upside.
Additional RB Notes & Movers:
- Tier 3 – Kenneth Gainwell has 26 rushing attempts over the last two games, thanks to big blowout scripts in the second half that allowed the Eagles to bench Sanders. That likely won’t be the script that plays out on Super Bowl Sunday, narrowing Gainwell’s path to value. Thanks to his high TPRR rates against the Chiefs' primary coverages, it will be in the receiving department if he comes through.
- Tier 4 – Boston Scott averages 1.5 rushing attempts for 4.8 yards in contests where the Eagles haven’t led by four-plus points on 35% or more of plays. This is a bad spot for Scott unless you think the Chiefs lay down.
- Tier 4 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been activated from IR and will suit up for the Super Bowl. It is hard to say what his involvement will be, but his most likely impact would be to Pacheco if he sees significant work.
Wide Receiver
| Tier | Pos Rank | Player | Opp | Game Total | Spread | Team Total | PPG |
| 1 | WR1 | A.J. Brown | vs KC | 50.5 | -1.5 | 26.00 | 16.6 |
| 1 | WR2 | DeVonta Smith | vs KC | 50.5 | -1.5 | 26.00 | 14.8 |
| 3 | WR3 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 10.9 |
| 3 | WR4 | Kadarius Toney | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 6.5 |
| 2 | WR5 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 8.1 |
| 4 | WR6 | Skyy Moore | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 3.1 |
| 4 | WR7 | Quez Watkins | vs KC | 50.5 | -1.5 | 26.00 | 4.5 |
| 4 | WR8 | Justin Watson | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 3.4 |
| 5 | WR9 | Zach Pascal | vs KC | 50.5 | -1.5 | 26.00 | 2.0 |
| 6 | WR10 | Marcus Kemp | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 0.8 |
Tier 1 – A.J. Brown
Brown has scored 5.2 and 6.8 fantasy points over the last two games, but that is due to the Eagles playing with giant second-half leads (see Jalen Hurts above). From a utilization perspective, Brown still sees plenty of playing time and demands the rock.
| Week | Routes | TPRR | Targets | ADOT | Air Yards | EZ Tgts | 3rd/4th Down Targets | PA Targets | PPR |
| 17 | 100% | 24% | 28% | 12.3 | 38% | 0% | 18% | 11% | 19.7 |
| 18 | 91% | 24% | 30% | 17.0 | 63% | 0% | 29% | 44% | 13.5 |
| DIV | 85% | 22% | 22% | 12.4 | 40% | 50% | 14% | 40% | 5.2 |
| CC | 97% | 31% | 33% | 11.0 | 38% | 0% | 44% | 0% | 6.8 |
| YTD | 93% | 24% | 28% | 12.8 | 41% | 46% | 31% | 35% | 16.6 |
The fourth-year WR set a new career high in target share at 28% in 2022 and has eclipsed 2.45 yards per route run (YPRR) every year of his career, an accomplishment no other WR drafted since 2014 can claim. Brown is an absolute monster after the catch, ranking only behind Justin Jefferson in YAC.
The Chiefs allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to WRs (34.9), and the Eagles' passing attack is highly consolidated across Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. The threesome has accounted for 88%, 80%, 87%, and 71% of Philadelphia’s targets over the last four games.
Tier 3 – JuJu Smith-Schuster
Smith-Schuster is practicing this week after sitting out last week. Assuming this trend holds, he should be in line for 80% route participation. Since Week 13, he has averaged 82%, excluding the Championship Game when he got hurt.
| Week | Routes | TPRR | Targets | ADOT | Air Yards | EZ Tgts | 3rd/4th Down Targets | PA Targets | PPR |
| 13 | 81% | 16% | 19% | 6.5 | 11% | 0% | 29% | 50% | 6.5 |
| 14 | 86% | 29% | 28% | 7.0 | 24% | 50% | 56% | 0% | 22.4 |
| 15 | 87% | 25% | 25% | 6.9 | 32% | 0% | 13% | 40% | 18.8 |
| 16 | 85% | 15% | 15% | 0.8 | 2% | 0% | 22% | 25% | 5.7 |
| 17 | 72% | 9% | 7% | 6.3 | 6% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 |
| 18 | 78% | 8% | 8% | 11.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 5.5 |
| DIV | 88% | 6% | 6% | 12.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.9 |
| CC | 42% | 5% | 2% | 5.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.7 |
Smith has faded in the target department down the stretch. However, in those seven games, he averaged 5.1 targets, 4.4 receptions, and 44 yards. The receptions and yards represent significantly better outcomes than the current player props on BetMGM.
The Eagles allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to WRs, but the Chiefs have owned top pass EPA defenses all season long (see Patrick Mahomes above).
While Smith-Schuster doesn’t profile as a high-end WR talent anymore, his 18% TPRR and 1.77 YPRR are good enough to consider the overs, thanks to a pass-first offense with an elite QB.
Additional WR Notes & Movers:
- Tier 1 – DeVonta Smith fell flat in the Championship Game, but his 27% target share is only one percentage point behind Brown. The two WRs both have blowup potential against a coverage unit that allows the seventh-most points to fantasy WRs.
- Tier 3 – Kadarius Toney is the No. 2 target on the team from a per-route basis (28%) and has hit high notes against all coverage types. He is more than just a gimmick player tethered to the line of scrimmage. However, the coaching staff hasn’t shown a willingness to play him on more than ~30% of passing plays.
- Tier 3 – Marquez Valdes-Scantling finally delivered a high-end fantasy performance against the Bengals with 23.6 points. Unfortunately, it is likely just a flash in the pan. MVS has a low 14% TPRR and a dreadful 1.31 YPRR this season. He has been the fourth option this season against the primary coverage schemes deployed by the Eagles.
- Tier 4 – Skyy Moore registered a season-high 60% route participation in the Championship Game, but it sounds like Smith-Schuster and Toney will play on Sunday. His 20% TPRR is better than MVS or Smith-Schuster, but his playing time is injury dependent.
Tight End
| Tier | Pos Rank | Player | Opp | Game Total | Spread | Team Total | PPG |
| 1 | TE1 | Travis Kelce | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 19.6 |
| 2 | TE2 | Dallas Goedert | vs KC | 50.5 | -1.5 | 26.00 | 12.0 |
| 3 | TE3 | Noah Gray | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 4.0 |
| 4 | TE4 | Jack Stoll | vs KC | 50.5 | -1.5 | 26.00 | 1.3 |
| 4 | TE5 | Blake Bell | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 2.9 |
| 5 | TE6 | Jody Fortson | at PHI | 50.5 | 1.5 | 24.50 | 2.3 |
TE Notes & Movers:
- Tier 1 – Travis Kelce’s 19.6 points per game are 6.5 points higher than the second-best TE. If he played WR, he would rank as the No. 6 option. The Eagles are the league's No. 1 EPA pass defense, but the Chiefs have obliterated every top-10 EPA unit they have faced (see Patrick Mahomes above). Kelce is the highest-rated non-QB on the slate.
- Tier 2 – Dallas Goedert has target shares of 23%, 22%, and 25% over the last three games. He averages 55.9 yards per game, yet his receiving line sits at 47.5 (-110) at BetMGM. The fifth-year TE bested that number in eight of 14 opportunities this year.
- Tier 3 – Noah Gray isn’t a priority target for the Chiefs, with a 5% target share. However, his average route participation is 39%, which puts him in play for an anytime TD.
We've been cranking out Super Bowl content all week. If you need something, chances are we have it.
- Underdog Pick'em: Best Picks & Plays
- DFS Showdown. What you need to know to win.
- Underdog Battle Royale Strategy: Get those drafts in!
- Dwain McFarland's Super Bowl Utilization Report
- Get exotic with our best novelty bets.
- Sleeper Over/Under: Best Picks & Plays
- All of our picks & plays + more in the Game Hub
