It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 13 of the fantasy football season.

Below you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, betting totals, and implied points for every game on the slate.

Find all of our positional rankings here.

Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers – Week 13

Last updated: 11 am, Saturday, December 3rd. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!

Quarterback

TierPos RankPlayerOppGame TotalSpreadTeam TotalPPG
1QB1Patrick Mahomes IIat CIN53.0-2.027.5026.3
1QB2Josh Allenat NE43.5-4.023.7526.2
1QB3Jalen Hurtsvs TEN44.5-4.524.5024.8
1QB4Joe Burrowvs KC53.02.025.5022.9
2QB5Tua Tagovailoaat SF46.54.021.2519.9
2QB6Justin Herbertat LV49.51.024.2518.3
2QB7Justin Fieldsvs GB44.53.520.5021.4
2QB8Lamar Jacksonvs DEN39.5-9.524.5022.0
3QB9Deshaun Watsonat HOU47.5-7.027.250.0
3QB10Dak Prescottvs IND44.5-10.527.5017.1
3QB11Trevor Lawrenceat DET51.01.025.0017.5
3QB12Geno Smithat LAR40.5-7.023.7518.8
4QB13Derek Carrvs LAC49.5-1.025.2516.5
4QB14Jimmy Garoppolovs MIA46.5-4.025.2516.7
4QB15Tom Bradyvs NO40.5-3.522.0015.8
4QB16Kirk Cousinsvs NYJ44.5-3.023.7516.9
5QB17Jared Goffvs JAC51.0-1.026.0015.6
5QB18Aaron Rodgersat CHI44.5-3.524.0015.2
5QB19Mike Whiteat MIN44.53.020.7524.8
5QB20Marcus Mariotavs PIT42.01.020.5016.2
5QB21Daniel Jonesvs WAS40.52.519.0017.2
6QB22Kenny Pickettat ATL42.0-1.021.5013.2
6QB23Ryan Tannehillat PHI44.54.520.0013.7
6QB24Mac Jonesvs BUF43.54.019.7512.5
6QB25Taylor Heinickeat NYG40.5-2.521.5013.3
6QB26Russell Wilsonat BAL39.59.515.0014.1
6QB27Matt Ryanat DAL44.510.517.0014.5
6QB28Andy Daltonat TB40.53.518.5015.0
7QB29John Wolfordvs SEA40.57.016.759.8
7QB30Kyle Allenvs CLE47.57.020.255.9

Tier 2 – Justin Fields

Fields practiced in full the last two days and was removed from the injury report. Matt Eberflus indicated the second-year QB is healthy enough to protect himself, but we don’t know if that means the team will take precautions with play calling.

Fields’ fantasy eruption coincided with more involvement in designed-run plays. Over the first six games of the season, he averaged 12% and delivered 13.3 fantasy points per game. Then, during Weeks 7 to 11, his designed runs jumped to 25%, and he averaged a sizzling 31 points per game.

There is a real chance the coaching staff tries to limit contact to their young QB’s shoulder by reducing his rushing attempts. However, there is a chance he will play his typical game, given his full practice participation and removal from the injury report. He has finished QB5, QB5, QB1, QB1 and QB7 in his last five games.

Fields moves up to QB7 thanks to his proven QB1 overall upside.

Tier 3 – Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence has a top-10 finish in five of his last six games and averages 19.5 points.

The second year QB has the sixth-best PFF passing grade (90.3) over the last five weeks, leading the league in completion percentage (72.7%). He has registered the fifth-highest big-time throw rate (6.5%).

He has found multiple weapons to get involved outside Christian Kirk, with Zay Jones being the latest to deliver. Jones has 19 receptions for 203 yards in the last two outings. We could be witnessing the maturation of the former No. 1 overall NFL draft pick.

And even if we aren’t, he gets a plus matchup against the Lions, where it will be hard to fail. Detroit has PFF’s fourth-worst graded coverage unit, and the Jaguars have a gaudy top-four team total.

Lawrence is a SMASH low-end QB1 in Week 13.

Additional QB Notes & Movers:

  • Tier 3 – Deshaun Watson returns to play his first football since 2020. There is a chance he is rusty, but he has big-play upside via the air and on the ground. Watson has averaged 25, 22, 22, and 24 points per game in his career and matches up against the worst-graded PFF coverage unit (44.2) in the Texans. The Browns have the second-best team total on the slate. Watson is a top-eight option.
  • Tier 5 – Mike White has two 300-plus yard passing totals in four full games in the NFL. His style of play doesn’t scream big yardage (14% check-down rate last weekend), and he was eventually exposed last season. However, he draws a juicy matchup against a Vikings secondary that allows the most non-overtime passing yards per game (292). He is a mid-range QB2 in superflex leagues.

Running Back

TierPos RankPlayerOppGame TotalSpreadTeam TotalPPG
1RB1Austin Ekelerat LV49.51.024.2523.2
1RB2Josh Jacobsvs LAC49.5-1.025.2522.0
1RB3Nick Chubbat HOU47.5-7.027.2518.9
1RB4Derrick Henryat PHI44.54.520.0019.8
2RB5Rhamondre Stevensonvs BUF43.54.019.7516.7
2RB6Christian McCaffreyvs MIA46.5-4.025.2519.2
2RB7Jonathan Taylorat DAL44.510.517.0014.5
2RB8Travis Etienne Jr.at DET51.01.025.0012.6
2RB9Saquon Barkleyvs WAS40.52.519.0018.2
2RB10Kenneth Walker IIIat LAR40.5-7.023.7514.6
2RB11Aaron Jonesat CHI44.5-3.524.0016.0
2RB12Dalvin Cookvs NYJ44.5-3.023.7515.1
2RB13Joe Mixonvs KC53.02.025.5018.1
3RB14Tony Pollardvs IND44.5-10.527.5015.6
3RB15Alvin Kamaraat TB40.53.518.5015.4
3RB16David Montgomeryvs GB44.53.520.5010.8
3RB17Najee Harrisat ATL42.0-1.021.5012.4
3RB18Jamaal Williamsvs JAC51.0-1.026.0014.9
3RB19Jeff Wilson Jr.at SF46.54.021.2511.3
3RB20Dameon Piercevs CLE47.57.020.2512.9
4RB21Cordarrelle Pattersonvs PIT42.01.020.5012.8
4RB22Miles Sandersvs TEN44.5-4.524.5014.5
4RB23Isiah Pachecoat CIN53.0-2.027.505.7
4RB24Ezekiel Elliottvs IND44.5-10.527.5012.4
4RB25Rachaad Whitevs NO40.5-3.522.007.2
4RB26Leonard Fournettevs NO40.5-3.522.0015.6
4RB27Brian Robinson Jr.at NYG40.5-2.521.509.2
4RB28Antonio Gibsonat NYG40.5-2.521.5012.4
4RB29Devin Singletaryat NE43.5-4.023.7511.7
4RB30Gus Edwardsvs DEN39.5-9.524.5011.4
4RB31Zonovan Knightat MIN44.53.020.7513.3
4RB32Latavius Murrayat BAL39.59.515.0010.0
5RB33D'Andre Swiftvs JAC51.0-1.026.0013.0
5RB34AJ Dillonat CHI44.5-3.524.008.2
5RB35Jaylen Warrenat ATL42.0-1.021.504.9
5RB36Tyler Allgeiervs PIT42.01.020.507.8
5RB37Kyren Williamsvs SEA40.57.016.757.1
5RB38Ty Johnsonat MIN44.53.020.752.6
5RB39Kareem Huntat HOU47.5-7.027.259.0
5RB40Raheem Mostertat SF46.54.021.2510.7
5RB41Jerick McKinnonat CIN53.0-2.027.506.5
5RB42Tyrion Davis-Pricevs MIA46.5-4.025.251.9
5RB43Cam Akersvs SEA40.57.016.753.9
6RB44JaMycal Hastyat DET51.01.025.005.1
6RB45James Robinsonat MIN44.53.020.758.8
6RB46Kenyan Drakevs DEN39.5-9.524.508.8
6RB47Dontrell Hilliardat PHI44.54.520.007.4
6RB48Kenneth Gainwellvs TEN44.5-4.524.505.1
6RB49Samaje Perinevs KC53.02.025.509.0
6RB50James Cookat NE43.5-4.023.754.5
6RB51Darrynton Evansvs GB44.53.520.507.7
6RB52Alexander Mattisonvs NYJ44.5-3.023.754.8
6RB53Ameer Abdullahvs LAC49.5-1.025.253.6
6RB54Matt Breidavs WAS40.52.519.003.0
6RB55Boston Scottvs TEN44.5-4.524.502.3
6RB56Jordan Masonvs MIA46.5-4.025.250.8
6RB57Deon Jacksonat DAL44.510.517.007.3
6RB58Darrell Henderson Jr.at DET51.01.025.007.4
6RB59Travis Homerat LAR40.5-7.023.753.6
6RB60Justice Hillvs DEN39.5-9.524.503.5
6RB61Mark Ingram IIat TB40.53.518.504.5
6RB62Justin Jacksonvs JAC51.0-1.026.002.9
6RB63Joshua Kelleyat LV49.51.024.255.5
7RB64Marlon Mackat BAL39.59.515.000.7
7RB65Myles Gaskinat SF46.54.021.254.7
7RB66Caleb Huntleyvs PIT42.01.020.504.3
7RB67Trestan Ebnervs GB44.53.520.500.9
7RB68Isaiah Spillerat LV49.51.024.251.7
7RB69Rex Burkheadvs CLE47.57.020.255.9
7RB70Dare Ogunbowalevs CLE47.57.020.252.8
7RB71Ronald Jones IIat CIN53.0-2.027.504.4
7RB72Benny Snell Jr.at ATL42.0-1.021.502.8
7RB73Zamir Whitevs LAC49.5-1.025.250.7

Tier 1 – Nick Chubb

Chubb hasn’t had a fantasy blowup game since Week 1, but he continues to play the position as efficiently as any other back in the NFL. He ranks highly in rushing metrics compared to 50 other RBs with at least 50 attempts.

PFF Rush Grade

Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt

Average Yards After Contact

10-Plus Yard Attempt %

90.3 (3rd)

0.31 (1st)

3.61 (6th)

16.5% (5th)

He continues to share time with Kareem Hunt, but he averages 60% of the carries on the season, and he gets 69% of the work inside the five-yard line. And in a new development, he has taken on more responsibilities in the two-minute offense over the last two games, with 70% and 50%.

WeekSnapsRush AttRoutesTargetsTPRRSDD Snapsi5 AttLDD Snaps2MIN SnapsPPR
153%59%28%3%10%33%0%17%29%15.3
254%50%45%11%20%80%100%11%0%32.3
363%61%41%3%7%45%33%20%0%17.3
455%58%38%7%13%50%100%20%0%20.7
552%59%39%3%7%40%67%20%0%25.4
644%67%33%2%6%20%0%6%18%8.0
757%73%42%8%13%20%50%0%24%18.7
852%51%27%5%14%33%50%20%0%23.4
1048%52%30%12%31%71%0%8%22%17.1
1155%61%38%8%18%50%0%8%70%9.7
1259%79%37%3%6%50%100%6%50%20.2
YTD54%60%36%6%13%46%69%12%26%18.9

The Browns primarily attack defenses through Amari CooperDavid Njoku, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Still, the new role could lead to additional fantasy points for Chubb in the right game script, which helps insulate his value in trailing game scripts.

The superstar RB faces the Texans – the third-worst PFF run defense (36.8) – who allow the most non-overtime rushing attempts per game (33.8). The Browns are seven-point favorites, which sets up well for a run-heavy attack.

This setup has slate-breaking upside similar to what we have seen Derrick Henry provide against Houston. Can anyone say 200 yards and 2 TDs? It may sound silly, but it is in the range of outcomes this weekend.

Chubb is a top-three SMASH play in Week 13.

Tier 2 – Aaron Jones

Since Week 5, the Packers have fed Jones 57% or more of the rushing attempts in six out of eight games. In those games, Jones averaged 18.7 fantasy points.

WeekSnapsRush AttRoutesTargetsTPRRSDD Snapsi5 AttLDD Snaps2MIN SnapsPPR
161%28%65%15%18%50%0%43%83%10.6
259%39%63%13%17%50%0%67%40%32.0
363%48%59%12%18%67%0%75%100%7.7
462%46%39%13%27%67%0%58%100%14.5
573%65%63%9%12%57%0%100%100%10.0
656%45%53%9%15%50%0%57%100%7.4
774%62%71%29%38%80%100%86%86%28.6
867%66%54%19%26%88%0%80%73%19.7
941%41%29%5%13%50%0%50%0%6.5
1070%62%48%11%20%50%0%86%0%22.9
1166%60%59%19%30%86%0%58%69%12.0
1271%57%79%16%18%100%0%88%67%18.9
YTD63%51%56%14%21%62%20%68%73%15.9

The veteran back also consistently leads the way in route participation as the preferred long-down-distance and two-minute offense option. Early in the season, we saw AJ Dillon more involved, but since Week 4, he has only eclipsed a 50% snap share once.

Jones owns the No. 2 PFF rushing grade (90.7) and is No. 5 in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.29). 

The Bears have the worst PFF run grade (30.6) and allow 30.8 attempts per contest in non-overtime play – the second-most.

Jones is a SMASH play and is due for a big performance.

Tier 3 – Dameon Pierce

Pierce was a downgrade in this week’s Utilization Report after losing the passing-down work and ceding touches to Dare Ogunbowale once Week 12’s game was out of hand. However, he picks up a great matchup against the Browns, the second-lowest PFF run defense.

The rookie’s last two weeks have been rough, with two finishes outside the top-40 RBs. However, he should still be in line for the majority of rushing attempts as long as the game doesn’t turn into a complete blowout. Pierce averaged 16.6 rushing attempts in games where Houston trailed by four-plus points on over 50% of their snaps before Week 12 (five attempts).

Pierce is a boom-bust low-end RB2, but consensus rankings are slightly over-adjusting.

Tier 4 – Rachaad White

Leonard Fournette is not on the injury report and will return on Monday night. 

White handled 55% of the backfield in Week 10 before Fournette went down, so there is a chance he remains the lead option. However, Fournette had passport issues getting to Germany, which could have irritated the coaching staff. So, there is also a chance White returns to his 30-40% snap role we saw early in the season.

I am forecasting this as a near 50/50 split on Monday night, making both backs high-end RB3 options, but either could put up high-end RB2 numbers if they take charge against the Saints.

Tier 4 – Zonovan Knight

Michael Carter is doubtful after missing practice all week, which sets Knight up to lead the team in rushing attempts. Last weekend, James Robinson was a healthy scratch because the team wanted to get the rookie involved, and he delivered with 14 attempts for 69 yards and three receptions for 34.

After Carter left the game, Knight handled 67% of snaps and 59% of rushing attempts, playing a role similar to Brian Robinson Jr. in Washington.

Michael Carter

Ty Johnson will handle the passing down role, but Knight saw a 38% TPRR last week and could still be involved. Knight should be in line for 15 to 18 touches, even if Robinson steals a few snaps.

Knight is a mid-range RB3 with RB2 upside.

Additional RB Notes & Movers:

  • Tier 2 – Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging 20.0 fantasy points since taking over a near-every-down role starting in Week 5. The second-year RB is quite the receiving back, averaging a 22% target share. He ranks sixth in YPRR (1.62) and fourth in TPRR (27%). Stevenson is a top-six RB this week.
  • Tier 2 – Travis Etienne Jr. left the game last week with a foot injury, but the team insists he could have returned. He is questionable for Sunday after limited practice sessions all week. The Jaguars have a sweet matchup against the Lions, who allow the second-most rushing yards (155) and the most TDs (1.6) per game in non-overtime play. Etienne is a mid-range RB1.
  • Tier 3 – Cordarrelle Patterson regained the passing-down role we came to love in 2021 in Week 12 with Kyle Pitts out. The Steelers' defense is tough against the run, but Patterson might be too involved in the passing attack to fail. Pittsburgh’s man-heavy approach keeps Patterson from climbing higher – most of C-Patt’s targets come against zone. He is a low-end RB2 with upside.
  • Tier 3 – Brian Robinson could be an every-down option if Antonio Gibson can’t go this weekend. He would climb to RB16 in that scenario.
  • Tier 3 – Antonio Gibson is one of the only RBs in the NFL that sees an increase in targets against man coverage (31% TPRR) over zone (26%), and the Giants use the most man concepts (48.9%). He hasn’t had a blowup game in a while, but the underlying utilization is upside-RB2-worthy. He ranks No. 3 in YPRR (1.71) and No. 5 in TPRR (26%). Gibson is a high-end RB3 if healthy.
  • Tier 4 – Isiah Pacheco is bogarting all of the rushing work over the last three games, averaging 73% of the carries. The Chiefs remain a pass-first unit, but they see plenty of scoring chances and their favorite red-zone trinkets (Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney) are injured. Pacheco is a low-end RB3.


Wide Receiver

TierPos RankPlayerOppGame TotalSpreadTeam TotalPPG
1WR1Davante Adamsvs LAC49.5-1.025.2521.0
1WR2Stefon Diggsat NE43.5-4.023.7522.6
1WR3Tyreek Hillat SF46.54.021.2521.6
1WR4Justin Jeffersonvs NYJ44.5-3.023.7522.3
1WR5Amon-Ra St. Brownvs JAC51.0-1.026.0016.9
2WR6CeeDee Lambvs IND44.5-10.527.5016.5
2WR7A.J. Brownvs TEN44.5-4.524.5015.8
2WR8Jaylen Waddleat SF46.54.021.2517.1
2WR9Ja'Marr Chasevs KC53.02.025.5020.2
2WR10Tee Higginsvs KC53.02.025.5016.4
2WR11Amari Cooperat HOU47.5-7.027.2516.1
2WR12Christian Kirkat DET51.01.025.0015.4
3WR13Keenan Allenat LV49.51.024.2510.5
3WR14Chris Godwinvs NO40.5-3.522.0014.6
3WR15DK Metcalfat LAR40.5-7.023.7513.3
3WR16Tyler Lockettat LAR40.5-7.023.7514.5
3WR17DeVonta Smithvs TEN44.5-4.524.5012.1
3WR18Garrett Wilsonat MIN44.53.020.7512.4
3WR19Mike Evansvs NO40.5-3.522.0013.9
3WR20Terry McLaurinat NYG40.5-2.521.5012.6
3WR21Chris Olaveat TB40.53.518.5014.2
3WR22Brandon Aiyukvs MIA46.5-4.025.2513.7
3WR23Christian Watsonat CHI44.5-3.524.0011.3
3WR24JuJu Smith-Schusterat CIN53.0-2.027.5012.4
3WR25Michael Pittman Jr.at DAL44.510.517.0014.4
3WR26Deebo Samuelvs MIA46.5-4.025.2513.7
4WR27Joshua Palmerat LV49.51.024.2512.4
4WR28George Pickensat ATL42.0-1.021.509.9
4WR29Diontae Johnsonat ATL42.0-1.021.5010.1
4WR30Gabe Davisat NE43.5-4.023.7512.8
4WR31Zay Jonesat DET51.01.025.0012.4
4WR32Treylon Burksat PHI44.54.520.008.4
4WR33Courtland Suttonat BAL39.59.515.0011.6
4WR34Jakobi Meyersvs BUF43.54.019.7513.4
4WR35Allen Lazardat CHI44.5-3.524.0012.5
4WR36Darius Slaytonvs WAS40.52.519.0010.8
4WR37Adam Thielenvs NYJ44.5-3.023.7511.8
4WR38Drake Londonvs PIT42.01.020.509.1
4WR39Tyler Boydvs KC53.02.025.5011.6
4WR40Donovan Peoples-Jonesat HOU47.5-7.027.259.6
4WR41Parris Campbellat DAL44.510.517.009.4
5WR42Mack Hollinsvs LAC49.5-1.025.2510.1
5WR43Chase Claypoolvs GB44.53.520.507.9
5WR44Nico Collinsvs CLE47.57.020.259.4
5WR45Curtis Samuelat NYG40.5-2.521.5011.3
5WR46Michael Gallupvs IND44.5-10.527.507.2
5WR47Isaiah McKenzieat NE43.5-4.023.759.6
5WR48Van Jeffersonvs SEA40.57.016.757.7
5WR49DeAndre Carterat LV49.51.024.259.0
5WR50Jarvis Landryat TB40.53.518.508.1
5WR51Marquez Valdes-Scantlingat CIN53.0-2.027.508.0
5WR52Demarcus Robinsonvs DEN39.5-9.524.506.2
5WR53Julio Jonesvs NO40.5-3.522.008.5
5WR54Alec Pierceat DAL44.510.517.006.9
5WR55Olamide Zaccheausvs PIT42.01.020.507.3
5WR56D.J. Chark Jr.vs JAC51.0-1.026.006.5
5WR57Devin Duvernayvs DEN39.5-9.524.509.2
5WR58Corey Davisat MIN44.53.020.758.5
5WR59Marvin Jones Jr.at DET51.01.025.008.0
5WR60DeVante Parkervs BUF43.54.019.756.9
6WR61Skyy Mooreat CIN53.0-2.027.502.9
6WR62Randall Cobbat CHI44.5-3.524.008.4
6WR63Robert Woodsat PHI44.54.520.006.5
6WR64Elijah Mooreat MIN44.53.020.755.4
6WR65Jahan Dotsonat NYG40.5-2.521.508.2
6WR66Kendall Hintonat BAL39.59.515.005.7
6WR67Kalif Raymondvs JAC51.0-1.026.006.2
6WR68Chris Moorevs CLE47.57.020.257.0
6WR69Richie James Jr.vs WAS40.52.519.006.3
6WR70Nelson Agholorvs BUF43.54.019.756.9
6WR71Nick Westbrook-Ikhineat PHI44.54.520.006.4
6WR72Marquise Goodwinat LAR40.5-7.023.757.1
6WR73DeSean Jacksonvs DEN39.5-9.524.506.0
6WR74Quez Watkinsvs TEN44.5-4.524.505.3
6WR75K.J. Osbornvs NYJ44.5-3.023.755.9
6WR76Justin Watsonat CIN53.0-2.027.504.1
6WR77Jauan Jenningsvs MIA46.5-4.025.255.7
7WR78Noah Brownvs IND44.5-10.527.507.0
7WR79Damiere Byrdvs PIT42.01.020.506.3
7WR80Phillip Dorsett IIvs CLE47.57.020.253.2
7WR81Ben Skowronekvs SEA40.57.016.755.6
7WR82David Bellat HOU47.5-7.027.253.7
7WR83Tutu Atwellvs SEA40.57.016.754.1
7WR84Trent Sherfieldat SF46.54.021.255.3
7WR85Jamal Agnewat DET51.01.025.005.3
7WR86Denzel Mimsat MIN44.53.020.754.2
7WR87Josh Reynoldsvs JAC51.0-1.026.0010.5
7WR88Dante Pettisvs GB44.53.520.504.0
7WR89Romeo Doubsat CHI44.5-3.524.008.8
7WR90Isaiah Hodginsvs WAS40.52.519.006.1
7WR91Kenny Golladayvs WAS40.52.519.001.8
7WR92Equanimeous St. Brownvs GB44.53.520.503.7
7WR93Rashid Shaheedat TB40.53.518.505.9
7WR94Kendrick Bournevs BUF43.54.019.754.0
7WR95Byron Pringlevs GB44.53.520.502.8
7WR96Braxton Berriosat MIN44.53.020.754.1
7WR97Tyquan Thorntonvs BUF43.54.019.755.4
7WR98Keelan Cole Sr.vs LAC49.5-1.025.251.9
7WR99Zach Pascalvs TEN44.5-4.524.502.9
7WR100Tre'Quan Smithat TB40.53.518.505.7
7WR101Brandon Johnsonat BAL39.59.515.005.1
7WR102Steven Sims Jr.at ATL42.0-1.021.501.5

Tier 1 – Amon-Ra St. Brown

The Sun God makes his first top-five appearance of the season with everything aligning in his favor.

First, his utilization remains elite, and St. Brown is a target-earning machine. He averages 34% of the targets in healthy games, and his 32% TPRR ranks No. 2 behind Tyreek Hill. The Lions constantly put him in motion and move him all over the formation to create mismatches – 54% of his snaps come from the slot.

Second, the Jaguars have the third-worst PFF coverage grade and allow the eighth-most receiving yards per game (285) in non-overtime play.

Third, the game environment is perfect, with the second-highest game total, and the Lions have a top-six team total.

St. Brown is a SMASH top-five option in Week 13.

Tier 2 – Christian Kirk

Kirk delivered a fantasy dud last week (WR60), but his underlying data was still strong. He posted a 22% target share, rarely leaving the field. Amazingly, he has posted a sub-22% target share only two times all season.

WeekRoutesTPRRTargetsADOTAir YardsEZ Tgts3rd/4th Down TargetsPA TargetsPPR
192%24%28%12.934%0%20%20%17.7
294%21%20%7.222%0%17%33%25.8
398%21%22%7.529%20%17%13%19.2
493%35%41%8.950%0%50%11%8.3
598%6%7%21.713%33%9%33%1.5
6100%18%32%6.343%50%25%25%12.8
798%23%24%12.726%0%23%10%17.1
890%22%25%7.735%0%0%29%7.0
994%26%29%8.637%100%40%13%21.6
1094%22%28%11.041%67%18%30%31.5
1295%20%22%7.325%0%25%13%8.1
YTD96%21%24%9.729%21%21%20%15.5

The fifth-year WR is on pace for 1,120 yards and 11 TDs, proving to be worth his free agent contract that some considered too large.

This week, he faces off against the Lions and will try to outduel Amon-Ra St. Brown as the top slot WR in the contest. Detroit has the fourth-lowest PFF coverage grade (49.6) and allows the fourth-most receiving yards per game (271) in non-overtime.

The Jaguars have the No. 4 team total on the slate in a game brimming with shootout potential.

Kirk moves into low-end WR1 territory and is an absolute SMASH play.

Tier 3 – Deebo Samuel

Samuel has been struggling since the addition of Christian McCaffrey in Week 7. He was garnering 27% of the targets on average before the arrival of CMC, but that number has plummeted to 19% over Samuel’s last four contests.

WeekRoutesTPRRTargetsADOTAir YardsEZ Tgts3rd/4th Down TargetsPA TargetsPPR
194%18%23%2.37%0%10%17%14.6
290%23%24%-0.2-1%0%18%20%14.7
389%28%29%7.023%0%29%25%12.9
493%27%29%1.99%0%30%14%23.7
589%28%30%10.436%100%11%63%11.2
684%29%25%7.525%0%20%10%16.0
782%14%14%5.710%0%0%33%8.4
1087%15%17%2.56%0%20%0%7.1
1177%41%32%3.015%0%25%0%22.4
1292%14%14%1.84%33%15%20%7.3
YTD81%23%21%4.713%19%16%21%13.8

The playmaking WR missed Week 8 with a hamstring issue and was on the injury report again in Week 12, which could also be a factor. However, he and McCaffrey appear to be battling for the same targets – Samuel operates primarily underneath (4.7 ADOT) as a run-after-the-catch maven. McCaffrey has an ADOT of 1.7.

Samuel still has boom potential, as we saw in Week 11, with a 32% target share and 22.4 fantasy points. However, his early-season target domination appears to be over.

This weekend’s game against Miami could be the weekend's best matchup, with the 49ers needing to open things up. San Francisco has the sixth-best team total, but the Dolphins secondary has played much better over the last four contests, sporting a top-five EPA pass defense.

Miami plays man coverage the second-most (40%), and historically, Samuel isn’t a lead option in that scenario. His TPRR drops from 25% against zone to 12% against man.

Samuel is questionable due to a quad injury and is a boom-bust WR3.

Additional WR Notes & Movers:

  • Tier 2 – A.J. Brown faces a Titans defense that allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game (84) in non-overtime play but gives up the second-most receiving yards (281), which could force the run-heavy Eagles to air it out more. Brown has a 28% target share on the season, and the offense is currently without Dallas GoedertThis is a blowup spot for Brown, who is a top-seven option.
  • Tier 2 – Keenan Allen and the Chargers project for a shootout affair with a top-three game total. The Raiders have the worst EPA pass defense and allow 262 yards per game (seventh-most) in non-overtime. Allen moves into high-end WR2 territory. 
  • Tier 3 – DeVonta Smith has target shares of 31%, 39%, and 33% over the last three contests. With Dallas Goedert out, he has benefited the most and is due for a monster finish. As noted with A.J. Brown, the Titans are a pass-funnel defense. Smith is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside and ranks eight spots ahead of expert consensus.
  • Tier 3 – Brandon Aiyuk faces a Dolphins coverage unit that has morphed into a top-five EPA pass defense over the last month. However, the 49ers love to look Aiyuk’s way against man coverage (28% TPRR) and Miami ranks No. 2 in the percentage of plays in man (40%). Aiyuk is a low-end WR2.
  • Tier 3 – Christian Watson is due for regression thanks to his six TDs over the last three games, but he is also earning targets at a higher rate than any other Packer (24%) – because he is good. His speed means he can score from anywhere. He can beat you over the top or catch the ball underneath and take it to the house. The Bears have the fifth-worst PFF coverage grade (54.9) and lost their starting safety. Buckle up. Watson is a low-end WR2 that can break the slate.

Tight End

TierPos RankPlayerOppGame TotalSpreadTeam TotalPPG
1TE1Travis Kelceat CIN53.0-2.027.5021.7
2TE2Mark Andrewsvs DEN39.5-9.524.5014.5
2TE3T.J. Hockensonvs NYJ44.5-3.023.7512.4
3TE4Pat Freiermuthat ATL42.0-1.021.5010.5
3TE5Dalton Schultzvs IND44.5-10.527.508.9
3TE6George Kittlevs MIA46.5-4.025.2511.4
4TE7Gerald Everettat LV49.51.024.259.0
4TE8Hayden Hurstvs KC53.02.025.508.8
4TE9Foster Moreauvs LAC49.5-1.025.257.8
4TE10Cole Kmetvs GB44.53.520.507.8
4TE11Dawson Knoxat NE43.5-4.023.757.8
4TE12Greg Dulcichat BAL39.59.515.008.1
4TE13Tyler Conklinat MIN44.53.020.758.6
4TE14Evan Engramat DET51.01.025.007.3
4TE15Harrison Bryantat HOU47.5-7.027.255.2
5TE16Tyler Higbeevs SEA40.57.016.759.1
5TE17Robert Tonyanat CHI44.5-3.524.007.2
5TE18Hunter Henryvs BUF43.54.019.756.1
5TE19Logan Thomasat NYG40.5-2.521.505.8
5TE20Austin Hooperat PHI44.54.520.005.6
5TE21Mike Gesickiat SF46.54.021.256.8
5TE22Taysom Hillat TB40.53.518.508.5
5TE23Juwan Johnsonat TB40.53.518.508.0
5TE24Noah Fantat LAR40.5-7.023.756.6
6TE25Jordan Akinsvs CLE47.57.020.256.8
6TE26Kylen Gransonat DAL44.510.517.004.5
6TE27Daniel Bellingervs WAS40.52.519.008.2
6TE28Will Disslyat LAR40.5-7.023.756.7
6TE29Isaiah Likelyvs DEN39.5-9.524.505.6
6TE30Cade Ottonvs NO40.5-3.522.006.0
6TE31Cameron Bratevs NO40.5-3.522.004.2
6TE32Jonnu Smithvs BUF43.54.019.755.0
6TE33Jelani Woodsat DAL44.510.517.007.2
7TE34Brock Wrightvs JAC51.0-1.026.003.6
7TE35Chigoziem Okonkwoat PHI44.54.520.003.7
7TE36Jack Stollvs TEN44.5-4.524.501.5

Tier 3 – Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth has the No. 1 TPRR on the Steelers at 24%, which is saying something considering Diontae Johnson’s proven track record to earn targets. The second-year TE’s TPRR ranks No. 3 in the NFL behind only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, and he ranks fourth in YPRR (1.76).

This weekend, he draws a matchup against a bottom-seven PFF coverage unit in the Falcons. Atlanta allows the sixth-most receiving yards per game (265) in non-regulation play. They have given up 656 yards (sixth-most) to the TE position, allowing the sixth-most open targets (66%).

Freiermuth is a top-five option in Week 13.

Additional TE Notes & Movers:

  • Tier 4 – Harrison Bryant will start for David Njoku who will miss Week 13 due to a knee injury. Bryant is not your normal second-string TE – he has demonstrated an ability to earn targets. The third-year TE has six 20%-plus TPRR outings this season. If he has one of those performances in a full-time role, he could smash expectations. Bryant is a high-end TE2.