Fantasy

Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers. Week 16

by Dwain McFarland

1 year ago

It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 16 of the fantasy football season.

Below you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, betting totals, and implied points for every game on the slate.

Find all of our positional rankings here.

Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers – Week 16

Last updated: 4 pm, Wednesday, December 21st. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!

Quarterback

Tier	Pos Rank	Player	Opp	Game Total	Spread	Team Total	PPG
1	QB1	Patrick Mahomes II	vs SEA	48.5	-9.5	29.00	26.0
1	QB2	Josh Allen	at CHI	40.5	-9.5	25.00	25.9
2	QB3	Justin Fields	vs BUF	40.5	9.5	15.50	21.5
2	QB4	Joe Burrow	at NE	41.5	-3.5	22.50	23.3
2	QB5	Justin Herbert	at IND	47.0	-4.0	25.50	17.8
3	QB6	Tua Tagovailoa	vs GB	49.5	-4.0	26.75	18.8
3	QB7	Geno Smith	at KC	48.5	9.5	19.50	19.2
3	QB8	Lamar Jackson	vs ATL	37.5	-7.5	22.50	20.3
3	QB9	Kirk Cousins	vs NYG	48.5	-3.5	26.00	18.4
3	QB10	Dak Prescott	vs PHI	46.0	-4.5	25.25	17.6
3	QB11	Trevor Lawrence	at NYJ	38.0	1.0	18.50	19.3
4	QB12	Aaron Rodgers	at MIA	49.5	4.0	22.75	14.9
4	QB13	Tom Brady	at ARI	41.0	-6.5	23.75	15.9
4	QB14	Jared Goff	at CAR	44.0	-2.5	23.25	16.7
4	QB15	Daniel Jones	at MIN	48.5	3.5	22.50	16.9
4	QB16	Gardner Minshew II	at DAL	46.0	4.5	20.75	-
4	QB17	Brock Purdy	vs WAS	39.5	-7.0	23.25	9.2
4	QB18	Derek Carr	at PIT	39.5	3.0	18.25	16.0
4	QB19	Deshaun Watson	vs NO	32.0	-2.5	17.25	12.1
5	QB20	Nick Foles	vs LAC	47.0	4.0	21.50	-
5	QB21	Sam Darnold	vs DET	44.0	2.5	20.75	14.0
5	QB22	Zach Wilson	vs JAC	38.0	-1.0	19.50	12.9
5	QB23	Russell Wilson	at LAR	36.5	-2.5	19.50	14.8
5	QB24	Kenny Pickett	vs LV	39.5	-3.0	21.25	12.1
6	QB25	Mac Jones	vs CIN	41.5	3.5	19.00	11.6
6	QB26	Andy Dalton	at CLE	32.0	2.5	14.75	14.8
6	QB27	Taylor Heinicke	at SF	39.5	7.0	16.25	13.8
7	QB28	Davis Mills	at TEN	37.0	5.0	16.00	12.7
7	QB29	Desmond Ridder	at BAL	37.5	7.5	15.00	7.7
7	QB30	Malik Willis	vs HOU	37.0	-5.0	21.00	1.7
7	QB31	Baker Mayfield	vs DEN	36.5	2.5	17.00	11.3
7	QB32	Trace McSorley	vs TB	41.0	6.5	17.25	2.4

Tier 3 – Tua Tagovailoa

The third-year QB averaged 24.6 fantasy points per game in his first six non-injury games of the season but this is down to 15.6 points over the last four games, averaging 243 yards and 1.5 passing TDs.

However, this weekend, the Dolphins carry the second-highest team total against the Packers in one of only three games with a predicted total of over 48 points. We don’t have many shootout options this weekend, and the weather could be a factor in several spots.

Tagovailoa is a mid-range QB1 for Week 16.

QB Notes & Movers:

Tier 3 – Trevor Lawrence has three top-five fantasy finishes in his last four outings. Over that span, he averaged 297 yards and 2.8 TDs. The former No. 1 overall draft pick ranks first in PFF pass grade (90.2) since Week 10 and is second in big-time-throw rate (7.5%). He would rank in the top six if not for a tough matchup against the No. 3 graded PFF coverage unit in the Jets. Lawrence is a low-end QB1.
Tier 4 – Gardner Minshew could start thanks to a throwing-shoulder injury to Jalen Hurts. He averaged 214 yards and 2 TDs in two starts last season for the Eagles, and the Cowboys have given up 252 yards and 2 TDs in non-overtime play over the last four games. Minshew is a mid-range QB2 with upside.
Tier 4 – Deshaun Watson averages 189 yards and 0.7 passing TDs on the season. He pitches in some on the ground (25 yards per game), but he hasn’t found his groove, and the forecast this weekend is calling for brutal conditions with 25-plus mph winds. Watson falls to mid-range QB2 territory.

Running Back

Tier	Pos Rank	Player	Opp	Game Total	Spread	Team Total	PPG
1	RB1	Christian McCaffrey	vs WAS	39.5	-7.0	23.25	21.0
1	RB2	Derrick Henry	vs HOU	37.0	-5.0	21.00	19.3
1	RB3	Austin Ekeler	at IND	47.0	-4.0	25.50	22.0
2	RB4	Josh Jacobs	at PIT	39.5	3.0	18.25	21.1
2	RB5	Saquon Barkley	at MIN	48.5	3.5	22.50	17.8
2	RB6	Dalvin Cook	vs NYG	48.5	-3.5	26.00	15.6
2	RB7	Rhamondre Stevenson	vs CIN	41.5	3.5	19.00	16.1
2	RB8	Tony Pollard	vs PHI	46.0	-4.5	25.25	16.6
2	RB9	Aaron Jones	at MIA	49.5	4.0	22.75	15.9
2	RB10	Nick Chubb	vs NO	32.0	-2.5	17.25	16.7
3	RB11	Jerick McKinnon	vs SEA	48.5	-9.5	29.00	10.9
3	RB12	James Conner	vs TB	41.0	6.5	17.25	14.7
3	RB13	Alvin Kamara	at CLE	32.0	2.5	14.75	14.3
3	RB14	Joe Mixon	at NE	41.5	-3.5	22.50	17.0
3	RB15	Miles Sanders	at DAL	46.0	4.5	20.75	14.4
3	RB16	Kenneth Walker III	at KC	48.5	9.5	19.50	13.5
3	RB17	Travis Etienne Jr.	at NYJ	38.0	1.0	18.50	11.6
3	RB18	Isiah Pacheco	vs SEA	48.5	-9.5	29.00	7.1
3	RB19	J.K. Dobbins	vs ATL	37.5	-7.5	22.50	11.0
3	RB20	Najee Harris	vs LV	39.5	-3.0	21.25	12.4
3	RB21	Ezekiel Elliott	vs PHI	46.0	-4.5	25.25	13.5
3	RB22	David Montgomery	vs BUF	40.5	9.5	15.50	12.3
4	RB23	Zonovan Knight	vs JAC	38.0	-1.0	19.50	12.0
4	RB24	Raheem Mostert	vs GB	49.5	-4.0	26.75	10.2
4	RB25	Latavius Murray	at LAR	36.5	-2.5	19.50	10.7
4	RB26	Zack Moss	vs LAC	47.0	4.0	21.50	2.8
4	RB27	D'Andre Swift	at CAR	44.0	-2.5	23.25	13.1
4	RB28	Rachaad White	at ARI	41.0	-6.5	23.75	8.0
4	RB29	Leonard Fournette	at ARI	41.0	-6.5	23.75	14.8
4	RB30	Devin Singletary	at CHI	40.5	-9.5	25.00	11.1
4	RB31	Jamaal Williams	at CAR	44.0	-2.5	23.25	12.9
4	RB32	AJ Dillon	at MIA	49.5	4.0	22.75	10.1
4	RB33	Cam Akers	vs DEN	36.5	2.5	17.00	6.4
4	RB34	D'Onta Foreman	vs DET	44.0	2.5	20.75	7.6
4	RB35	Tyler Allgeier	at BAL	37.5	7.5	15.00	8.7
4	RB36	Brian Robinson Jr.	at SF	39.5	7.0	16.25	9.8
4	RB37	Cordarrelle Patterson	at BAL	37.5	7.5	15.00	12.0
4	RB38	Khalil Herbert	vs BUF	40.5	9.5	15.50	10.7
5	RB39	James Cook	at CHI	40.5	-9.5	25.00	5.8
5	RB40	Damien Harris	vs CIN	41.5	3.5	19.00	8.5
5	RB41	Deon Jackson	vs LAC	47.0	4.0	21.50	7.0
5	RB42	Chuba Hubbard	vs DET	44.0	2.5	20.75	5.3
5	RB43	Antonio Gibson	at SF	39.5	7.0	16.25	11.5
5	RB44	Jeff Wilson Jr.	vs GB	49.5	-4.0	26.75	9.8
5	RB45	Michael Carter	vs JAC	38.0	-1.0	19.50	8.5
5	RB46	Samaje Perine	at NE	41.5	-3.5	22.50	9.6
5	RB47	Kareem Hunt	vs NO	32.0	-2.5	17.25	8.2
5	RB48	Gus Edwards	vs ATL	37.5	-7.5	22.50	7.9
6	RB49	Jaylen Warren	vs LV	39.5	-3.0	21.25	5.3
6	RB50	Jordan Mason	vs WAS	39.5	-7.0	23.25	2.4
6	RB51	Marlon Mack	at LAR	36.5	-2.5	19.50	6.0
6	RB52	Joshua Kelley	at IND	47.0	-4.0	25.50	5.6
6	RB53	Royce Freeman	at TEN	37.0	5.0	16.00	3.3
6	RB54	Kenneth Gainwell	at DAL	46.0	4.5	20.75	4.9
6	RB55	Travis Homer	at KC	48.5	9.5	19.50	3.9
6	RB56	Dare Ogunbowale	at TEN	37.0	5.0	16.00	2.7
7	RB57	Rex Burkhead	at TEN	37.0	5.0	16.00	5.3
7	RB58	Alexander Mattison	vs NYG	48.5	-3.5	26.00	4.4
7	RB59	Kyren Williams	vs DEN	36.5	2.5	17.00	4.5
7	RB60	JaMycal Hasty	at NYJ	38.0	1.0	18.50	4.5
7	RB61	Justin Jackson	at CAR	44.0	-2.5	23.25	3.8
7	RB62	Matt Breida	at MIN	48.5	3.5	22.50	2.9
7	RB63	Nyheim Hines	at CHI	40.5	-9.5	25.00	4.8
7	RB64	Boston Scott	at DAL	46.0	4.5	20.75	2.9
7	RB65	Pierre Strong Jr.	vs CIN	41.5	3.5	19.00	3.0
7	RB66	David Johnson	at CLE	32.0	2.5	14.75	0.5
7	RB67	Ameer Abdullah	at PIT	39.5	3.0	18.25	3.4

Tier 2 – Dalvin Cook

Cook had a rough stretch of games from Week 11 to 14, but his underlying utilization remained strong. In Week 15, he got things going again with the No. 2 RB fantasy output of 29 points.

Week	Snaps	Rush Att	Routes	Targets	TPRR	SDD Snaps	i5 Att	LDD Snaps	2MIN Snaps	PPR
1	77%	71%	71%	12%	13%	71%	0%	80%	89%	13.8
2	69%	67%	63%	13%	19%	100%	0%	80%	44%	7.6
3	61%	68%	32%	0%	0%	100%	100%	73%	38%	15.6
4	62%	77%	43%	6%	10%	75%	0%	13%	100%	10.6
5	57%	58%	40%	5%	12%	50%	67%	30%	38%	26.1
6	87%	76%	46%	4%	6%	100%	0%	78%	100%	15.3
8	76%	74%	52%	20%	27%	89%	100%	88%	100%	25.1
9	86%	77%	64%	9%	11%	67%	100%	86%	100%	13.7
10	84%	61%	73%	11%	12%	83%	20%	89%	100%	23.6
11	60%	65%	53%	4%	5%	40%	0%	63%	100%	7.2
12	85%	81%	68%	14%	19%	100%	100%	82%	0%	9.6
13	75%	74%	54%	9%	14%	71%	100%	79%	100%	16.3
14	86%	88%	48%	5%	9%	100%	100%	82%	100%	10.6
15	85%	71%	75%	8%	9%	80%	67%	82%	100%	29.0
YTD	75%	72%	57%	9%	12%	79%	65%	71%	80%	16.0

Cook is second in the NFL in RB snap share (75%), third in rush share (72%), and fifth in route participation (57%). And for all of the Vikings' shortcomings, they are a top-ten offense in non-overtime plays and convert 24% of their possessions into TDs – the 11th most.

This weekend, Cook lands a soft matchup against the Giants, who allow a ridiculous 154 yards per game on the ground in non-overtime play. New York is the fifth-worst graded PFF run defense (46.4), and the matchup is one of only three games with a total of 48 or higher.

Cook is a top-six RB and a SMASH play.

Tier 3 – Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco disappointed fantasy managers in a great matchup thanks to a heroic effort from the Texans, who flipped the game script on its head. However, we get another chance for the rookie to boom in a great spot against the second-worst run defense, who allow 156 yards per game in non-overtime play.

There is room for Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon to shine – they play different roles.

Week	Snaps	Rush Att	Routes	Targets	TPRR	SDD Snaps	i5 Att	LDD Snaps	2MIN Snaps	PPR
10	56%	73%	37%	0%	0%	29%	0%	13%	0%	8.2
11	40%	63%	24%	0%	0%	60%	0%	0%	0%	10.7
12	51%	85%	28%	3%	7%	43%	100%	11%	23%	15.6
13	45%	61%	31%	10%	20%	40%	0%	8%	100%	16.2
14	43%	54%	27%	8%	25%	67%	0%	0%	20%	12.3
15	35%	50%	21%	3%	10%	33%	0%	10%	0%	10.7
YTD	28%	44%	17%	2%	9%	24%	28%	6%	7%	7.4

The Rutgers product remains the primary early-down option, averaging 15.8 rushing attempts per game since Week 10.

Pacheco is once again in a SMASH spot as a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside.

Additional RB Notes & Movers:

Tier 2 – Jerick McKinnon has back-to-back No. 1 RB finishes and will look to keep his streak going in a mouth-watering matchup against the Seahawks. Seattle gives up the second-most yards per game on the ground in non-overtime play (156) and is the second-most heavy zone coverage unit (79%). McKinnon’s target rate is 21% against zone – five percentage points higher than man. The veteran RB is a must-start low-end RB1.
Tier 3 – David Montgomery will have a legit challenger for touches, with Khalil Herbert returning for Week 16. The Bears are 9.5-point underdogs against the Bills. Chicago’s 15.5-point team total is third-worst on the slate. Montgomery downgrades from a high-end RB2 option to a low-end RB2 with bust potential. He is a FADE.
Tier 4 – Zack Moss is the lead candidate to take over most of the work left behind by Jonathan Taylor. The Colts are committed to the run and have the fourth-most favorable matchup against a Chargers unit allowing 151 yards per game in non-overtime play. Moss is a high-end RB3 with top-15 potential.

Wide Receiver

Tier	Pos Rank	Player	Opp	Game Total	Spread	Team Total	PPG
1	WR1	Justin Jefferson	vs NYG	48.5	-3.5	26.00	23.4
1	WR2	Tyreek Hill	vs GB	49.5	-4.0	26.75	21.9
1	WR3	Davante Adams	at PIT	39.5	3.0	18.25	20.4
1	WR4	Stefon Diggs	at CHI	40.5	-9.5	25.00	20.6
1	WR5	Amon-Ra St. Brown	at CAR	44.0	-2.5	23.25	17.8
1	WR6	Ja'Marr Chase	at NE	41.5	-3.5	22.50	20.6
1	WR7	DK Metcalf	at KC	48.5	9.5	19.50	14.5
2	WR8	A.J. Brown	at DAL	46.0	4.5	20.75	17.9
2	WR9	CeeDee Lamb	vs PHI	46.0	-4.5	25.25	16.5
2	WR10	Keenan Allen	at IND	47.0	-4.0	25.50	14.4
2	WR11	Jaylen Waddle	vs GB	49.5	-4.0	26.75	15.4
2	WR12	Chris Godwin	at ARI	41.0	-6.5	23.75	14.8
2	WR13	Mike Williams	at IND	47.0	-4.0	25.50	14.1
3	WR14	Garrett Wilson	vs JAC	38.0	-1.0	19.50	13.4
3	WR16	JuJu Smith-Schuster	vs SEA	48.5	-9.5	29.00	13.1
3	WR17	Tee Higgins	at NE	41.5	-3.5	22.50	16.0
3	WR15	DeAndre Hopkins	vs TB	41.0	6.5	17.25	18.8
3	WR18	Christian Kirk	at NYJ	38.0	1.0	18.50	15.0
3	WR19	Christian Watson	at MIA	49.5	4.0	22.75	12.2
3	WR20	Terry McLaurin	at SF	39.5	7.0	16.25	13.5
3	WR21	Mike Evans	at ARI	41.0	-6.5	23.75	13.1
3	WR22	DJ Moore	vs DET	44.0	2.5	20.75	11.0
3	WR23	DeVonta Smith	at DAL	46.0	4.5	20.75	13.5
3	WR24	Zay Jones	at NYJ	38.0	1.0	18.50	14.2
3	WR25	Michael Pittman Jr.	vs LAC	47.0	4.0	21.50	13.9
3	WR26	Jerry Jeudy	at LAR	36.5	-2.5	19.50	12.6
3	WR27	Diontae Johnson	vs LV	39.5	-3.0	21.25	11.1
3	WR28	Amari Cooper	vs NO	32.0	-2.5	17.25	14.4
3	WR29	Chris Olave	at CLE	32.0	2.5	14.75	13.5
3	WR30	Brandon Aiyuk	vs WAS	39.5	-7.0	23.25	12.7
4	WR31	Darius Slayton	at MIN	48.5	3.5	22.50	10.5
4	WR32	Drake London	at BAL	37.5	7.5	15.00	9.7
4	WR33	Marquise Brown	vs TB	41.0	6.5	17.25	14.8
4	WR34	Adam Thielen	vs NYG	48.5	-3.5	26.00	11.9
4	WR35	Chris Moore	at TEN	37.0	5.0	16.00	8.5
4	WR36	Gabe Davis	at CHI	40.5	-9.5	25.00	11.8
4	WR37	Jakobi Meyers	vs CIN	41.5	3.5	19.00	11.9
4	WR38	Allen Lazard	at MIA	49.5	4.0	22.75	11.6
4	WR39	Mecole Hardman	vs SEA	48.5	-9.5	29.00	11.7
4	WR40	Marquise Goodwin	at KC	48.5	9.5	19.50	7.5
4	WR41	George Pickens	vs LV	39.5	-3.0	21.25	9.2
4	WR42	Joshua Palmer	at IND	47.0	-4.0	25.50	12.0
4	WR43	DJ Chark Jr.	at CAR	44.0	-2.5	23.25	8.9
4	WR44	Corey Davis	vs JAC	38.0	-1.0	19.50	8.4
4	WR45	Donovan Peoples-Jones	vs NO	32.0	-2.5	17.25	10.8
5	WR46	Russell Gage	at ARI	41.0	-6.5	23.75	9.5
5	WR47	Jahan Dotson	at SF	39.5	7.0	16.25	10.5
5	WR48	Tyler Boyd	at NE	41.5	-3.5	22.50	10.9
5	WR49	Curtis Samuel	at SF	39.5	7.0	16.25	11.3
5	WR50	Treylon Burks	vs HOU	37.0	-5.0	21.00	8.5
5	WR51	Mack Hollins	at PIT	39.5	3.0	18.25	10.1
5	WR52	Michael Gallup	vs PHI	46.0	-4.5	25.25	7.5
5	WR53	Isaiah Hodgins	at MIN	48.5	3.5	22.50	9.0
5	WR54	Parris Campbell	vs LAC	47.0	4.0	21.50	8.9
5	WR55	Elijah Moore	vs JAC	38.0	-1.0	19.50	6.1
5	WR56	Van Jefferson	vs DEN	36.5	2.5	17.00	7.7
5	WR57	Demarcus Robinson	vs ATL	37.5	-7.5	22.50	6.9
5	WR58	K.J. Osborn	vs NYG	48.5	-3.5	26.00	8.2
5	WR59	Richie James Jr.	at MIN	48.5	3.5	22.50	7.3
5	WR60	Isaiah McKenzie	at CHI	40.5	-9.5	25.00	8.9
5	WR61	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	vs SEA	48.5	-9.5	29.00	8.0
6	WR62	Alec Pierce	vs LAC	47.0	4.0	21.50	7.3
6	WR63	Terrace Marshall Jr.	vs DET	44.0	2.5	20.75	6.8
6	WR64	Chase Claypool	vs BUF	40.5	9.5	15.50	7.7
6	WR65	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	vs HOU	37.0	-5.0	21.00	5.9
6	WR66	Romeo Doubs	at MIA	49.5	4.0	22.75	9.0
6	WR67	Josh Reynolds	at CAR	44.0	-2.5	23.25	10.5
6	WR68	Rashid Shaheed	at CLE	32.0	2.5	14.75	7.9
6	WR69	Noah Brown	vs PHI	46.0	-4.5	25.25	8.4
6	WR70	Hunter Renfrow	at PIT	39.5	3.0	18.25	5.8
6	WR71	Jauan Jennings	vs WAS	39.5	-7.0	23.25	5.4
6	WR72	Robert Woods	vs HOU	37.0	-5.0	21.00	6.1
6	WR73	Nelson Agholor	vs CIN	41.5	3.5	19.00	6.3
6	WR74	Tutu Atwell	vs DEN	36.5	2.5	17.00	5.0
6	WR75	Jarvis Landry	at CLE	32.0	2.5	14.75	6.7
6	WR76	Marvin Jones Jr.	at NYJ	38.0	1.0	18.50	7.3
7	WR77	Kadarius Toney	vs SEA	48.5	-9.5	29.00	4.7
7	WR78	Jameson Williams	at CAR	44.0	-2.5	23.25	3.7
7	WR79	Trent Sherfield	vs GB	49.5	-4.0	26.75	5.3
7	WR80	Quez Watkins	at DAL	46.0	4.5	20.75	5.6
7	WR81	Olamide Zaccheaus	at BAL	37.5	7.5	15.00	6.5
7	WR82	Ben Skowronek	vs DEN	36.5	2.5	17.00	6.0
7	WR83	Phillip Dorsett II	at TEN	37.0	5.0	16.00	3.1
7	WR84	Byron Pringle	vs BUF	40.5	9.5	15.50	4.1
7	WR85	Tyquan Thornton	vs CIN	41.5	3.5	19.00	5.2
7	WR86	DeSean Jackson	vs ATL	37.5	-7.5	22.50	4.1
7	WR87	Laviska Shenault Jr.	vs DET	44.0	2.5	20.75	5.9
7	WR88	Jamal Agnew	at NYJ	38.0	1.0	18.50	5.7
7	WR89	DeAndre Carter	at IND	47.0	-4.0	25.50	7.4
7	WR90	Ray-Ray McCloud	vs WAS	39.5	-7.0	23.25	2.8
7	WR91	Randall Cobb	at MIA	49.5	4.0	22.75	7.3
7	WR92	Skyy Moore	vs SEA	48.5	-9.5	29.00	2.5
7	WR93	Dante Pettis	vs BUF	40.5	9.5	15.50	3.7

Tier 1 – DK Metcalf

Metcalf has a career-high 27% target share and averages 10.3 targets over the last four contests. He ranks as the No. 12 WR in fantasy, with 14.5 points per game, but that average is up to 19.3 points with his recent surge in targets.

Week	Routes	TPRR	Targets	ADOT	Air Yards	EZ Tgts	3rd/4th Down Targets	PA Targets	PPR
1	94%	24%	27%	4.1	22%	0%	13%	43%	10.6
2	89%	21%	20%	9.2	32%	100%	33%	17%	7.5
3	96%	27%	28%	14.1	40%	100%	40%	0%	17.4
4	89%	34%	36%	16.0	51%	33%	50%	40%	21.9
5	100%	27%	33%	13.1	33%	33%	50%	38%	19.7
6	88%	21%	24%	13.6	41%	67%	25%	14%	5.4
7	38%	20%	8%	13.5	13%	0%	0%	50%	2.2
8	71%	34%	31%	15.4	57%	33%	33%	20%	17.5
9	90%	17%	19%	7.8	52%	67%	10%	33%	14.7
10	90%	25%	28%	11.1	38%	25%	33%	22%	13.1
12	96%	34%	40%	7.4	35%	67%	80%	29%	20.0
13	91%	20%	23%	14.3	42%	25%	0%	50%	26.7
14	95%	25%	30%	17.6	43%	67%	38%	20%	18.1
15	96%	19%	24%	5.3	29%	0%	13%	0%	12.5
YTD	88%	25%	27%	11.7	39%	49%	29%	25%	14.8

The fourth-year WR ranks No. 2 in endzone target share (49%) yet only has six receiving TDs, so there is room for more production. This weekend, he could see additional looks with Tyler Lockett out in a matchup where the Seahawks are 9.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs.

Kansas City allows the ninth-most yards per game (256) and the most TDs (2.1) through the air in non-overtime play.

Metcalf ranks as the WR7 and is a SMASH play this weekend.

Tier 3 – JuJu Smith-Schuster

Smith-Schuster averages a juicy 19.0 points over his last six healthy games with a 22% target share. That isn’t an enormous target share, but the Chiefs rank No. 4 in dropbacks in non-overtime play and rank above the NFL average in pass rate across trailing (+4), close (+9), and leading (+12) game scripts.

Of course, volume isn’t the only positive about this offense; Kansas City converts the second-most drives into TDs (33%) in the NFL.

This weekend, they face a Seahawks defense with a bottom-ten PFF coverage grade, and the Chiefs carry the No. 1 team total on the slate.

Smith-Schuster is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside.

Tier 3 – DJ Moore

Moore registered a 30%-plus target share in two of Sam Darnold’s first three starts. In a passing offense as bad as the Panthers’, dominating targets is key, and Moore’s fantasy finishes echo that sentiment. In games with a 30%-plus target share, he averages 18.5 points.

In Week 16, the Panthers get the Lions, who offer the third-worst PFF coverage grade (48.3). Opponents average the third-most receiving yards (284) in non-overtime games against Detroit.

The fifth-year WR is always a bust risk, but he has top-12 WR upside when he hits. Consider Moore a low-end boom-bust WR2 against the Lions.

Additional WR Notes & Movers:

Tier 3 – Christian Watson held onto a starting WR role in Green Bay despite the return of Romeo Doubs, who was relegated to three-WR sets. On Monday night, the Packers tried getting the ball to Watson closer to the line of scrimmage, with a 6.0 yard ADOT. His role could grow, and the rookie faces a bottom-six PFF coverage unit. The Dolphins are the second-heaviest man coverage team, and Watson is Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target against man, with a 32% TPRR. Watson is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside in a game that could shoot out.
Tier 3 and Tier 4 – DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown should continue to see heavy target shares, but Trace McSorley will start at QB with Colt McCoy ruled out. The Buccaneers allow the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (218) in non-overtime play. Hopkins slides to mid-range WR2 status, and Brown is a low-end WR3.
Tier 3 – Amari Cooper hasn’t registered a finish higher than WR43 since Deshaun Watson took over at QB. The forecast calls for 25-plus mph winds – which will deflate the passing game even further. Cooper is a FADE option as a mid-range WR3.
Tier 3 – Chris Olave gets a downgrade this week in a game where the Saints have a sub-15-point team total against the Browns. Wind could be a massive factor in this one, and New Orleans prefers to avoid the passing attack when possible. The rookie is a mid-range WR3.

Tight End

Tier	Pos Rank	Player	Opp	Game Total	Spread	Team Total	PPG
1	TE1	Travis Kelce	vs SEA	48.5	-9.5	29.00	19.9
2	TE2	George Kittle	vs WAS	39.5	-7.0	23.25	11.6
2	TE3	Mark Andrews	vs ATL	37.5	-7.5	22.50	12.6
2	TE4	Evan Engram	at NYJ	38.0	1.0	18.50	10.6
2	TE5	T.J. Hockenson	vs NYG	48.5	-3.5	26.00	11.7
2	TE6	Dalton Schultz	vs PHI	46.0	-4.5	25.25	8.6
2	TE7	Dallas Goedert	at DAL	46.0	4.5	20.75	12.6
2	TE8	Pat Freiermuth	vs LV	39.5	-3.0	21.25	10.7
3	TE9	Darren Waller	at PIT	39.5	3.0	18.25	8.9
3	TE10	David Njoku	vs NO	32.0	-2.5	17.25	11.0
3	TE11	Gerald Everett	at IND	47.0	-4.0	25.50	9.2
3	TE12	Greg Dulcich	at LAR	36.5	-2.5	19.50	8.0
4	TE13	Taysom Hill	at CLE	32.0	2.5	14.75	9.0
4	TE14	Dawson Knox	at CHI	40.5	-9.5	25.00	8.7
4	TE15	Chigoziem Okonkwo	vs HOU	37.0	-5.0	21.00	5.9
4	TE16	Cole Kmet	vs BUF	40.5	9.5	15.50	8.1
5	TE17	Noah Fant	at KC	48.5	9.5	19.50	7.2
5	TE18	Juwan Johnson	at CLE	32.0	2.5	14.75	9.1
5	TE19	Tyler Higbee	vs DEN	36.5	2.5	17.00	8.5
5	TE20	Hunter Henry	vs CIN	41.5	3.5	19.00	6.0
5	TE21	Tyler Conklin	vs JAC	38.0	-1.0	19.50	7.6
5	TE22	Jordan Akins	at TEN	37.0	5.0	16.00	6.6
5	TE23	Daniel Bellinger	at MIN	48.5	3.5	22.50	7.0
6	TE24	Austin Hooper	vs HOU	37.0	-5.0	21.00	6.0
6	TE25	Cade Otton	at ARI	41.0	-6.5	23.75	6.5
6	TE26	Robert Tonyan	at MIA	49.5	4.0	22.75	6.4
6	TE27	Trey McBride	vs TB	41.0	6.5	17.25	3.2
6	TE28	Logan Thomas	at SF	39.5	7.0	16.25	5.3
7	TE29	Will Dissly	at KC	48.5	9.5	19.50	6.0
7	TE30	Mike Gesicki	vs GB	49.5	-4.0	26.75	5.5
7	TE31	Jelani Woods	vs LAC	47.0	4.0	21.50	6.7
7	TE32	Cameron Brate	at ARI	41.0	-6.5	23.75	4.2
7	TE33	Foster Moreau	at PIT	39.5	3.0	18.25	6.4
7	TE34	Kylen Granson	vs LAC	47.0	4.0	21.50	4.7
7	TE35	Isaiah Likely	vs ATL	37.5	-7.5	22.50	5.6

TE Notes & Movers:

Tier 2 – Evan Engram is the No. 1 TE over the last four games, averaging 17.2 points, and his underlying utilization is substantial. The veteran TE has an 82% route participation and is the third-most targeted Jaguar (18%). The Jets could slow this passing attack down, but Engram remains a mid-range TE1 option.
Tier 2 – Dallas Goedert should return to action this weekend against the Cowboys. He will have to fight A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for targets, but the fourth-year TE carries high-end upside in a potential shootout environment. Goedert is a mid-range TE1 with upside.

Dwain McFarland