Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers. Week 2

It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 2, and Dwain has you covered with in-depth player tiers, rankings, and analysis. Here are a few of his favorites for Week 2:

Find all of our positional rankings here.

Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers – Week 2

It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 2 of the fantasy football season.

Week 2 is an interesting slate with five teams operating as near-double-digit favorites. This is great news for several running backs who could get more opportunities due to leading game scripts. On the other hand, some passing attacks might not need to throw often as games progress.

Below you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, betting totals, and implied points for every game on the slate.

Last updated: 12:15 p.m., Saturday, September 17^th

Quarterback

Tier 1 – Josh Allen 

Allen torched the Rams for 297 yards and three touchdowns and tacked on 56 yards and a score on the ground. Allen had the third-highest designed-rush rate in Week 1 (25%) and fourth-best scramble rate (13%). The Bills led on 64% of their plays in Week 1, yet they kept the pedal to the metal by passing the ball on 68% of plays (+17 percentage points vs. the 2021 NFL average).

The Bills are 10-point favorites at home against the Titans this weekend with the No. 1 implied total on the slate. Thanks to his rushing prowess and Buffalo’s pass-heavy nature, Allen is impervious to game scripts – making him the No. 1 option for Week 2.

Tier 3 – Derek Carr 

Carr leaps into Tier 3 for Week 2 thanks to a juicy matchup that should be a shootout versus a poor Cardinals secondary. Arizona ranks as the No. 2 matchup according to PFF’s QB SOS metric, and the matchup offers the fourth-highest game total.

The Cardinals were torched by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for 360 yards and five TDs in Week 1. Carr threw for 295 yards and two TDs last weekend against a much tougher defense in the Chargers. This is why we targeted AFC West players in our drafts – the huge game totals.

Tier 4 – Trey Lance 

Lance struggled in the passing game in Week 1 against the Bears, but who wouldn’t in that weather? On a positive note, no other QB was more involved in the designed-rushing game in Week 1, according to PFF. Lance handled a walloping 28% and scrambled on 11% of dropbacks.

Since 2015, 14 of 16 QBs to eclipse a 15% designed rush rate have finished in the top 10. The 49ers are almost 10-point favorites against the Seahawks with a top-eight implied score. That leaves room for plenty of rushing attempts and a potential multi-TD game from Lance.

For fantasy purposes, we don’t need Lance to be a great passer – that is purely icing on the cake.

Tier 4 – Carson Wentz 

Wentz climbs out of the low-end QB2 range to join Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford in Tier 4. The seventh-year signal caller had a blowup game in Week 1 with 313 yards and 4 TDs passing.

Wentz didn’t catapult up the ranks this week due to a random big passing game – the Commanders were a pass-heavy team despite leading by four or more points on 56% of plays. On those snaps, they opted to pass the ball 63% (plus-12% versus the NFL average). They have three quality WRs and two RBs with elite passing-down skills, so the shift makes sense from a personnel perspective.

Per BetMGM, the Commanders’ matchup with the Lions offers the fifth-ranked game total. I like playing it aggressively with Wentz this weekend, given how well all of the signals align.

Tier 5 – Justin Fields and Marcus Mariota 

Fields and Mariota were very involved in their team’s rushing attack last week (21% and 22% of designed runs), providing them with a solid starting floor. Both players also scrambled over 10% of dropbacks.

Both players are currently double-digit dogs, so the scramble rates could come in handy if their teams are forced to throw more.

Running Back

Tier 1 – Saquon Barkley 

Barkley played an every-down role in Week 1 and is game-script proof, thanks to his work in the passing game. He led the Giants with a 37% target share against the Titans, and his explosiveness is back – the fifth-year back averaged 6.8 yards after contact, and 22% of his carries went for 10-plus yards. His matchup doesn’t matter – he is a must-start no matter what.

Fournette ranks ahead of the industry consensus for the second-consecutive week. Last weekend he dominated snaps (76%), rushing attempts (64%), routes (76%), and registered an explosive run on 29% of his carries (10-plus yards).

Since 2011, eight backs have handled over 60% of their team’s rushing attempts and eclipsed the 70% route participation threshold. Their finishes: RB1, RB3, RB7 (Fournette in 2019), RB1, RB2, RB1, RB1, and RB3.

Cordarrelle Patterson torched the Saints for 120 yards and a touchdown last weekend. Fournette is a must-start in all formats in Week 2.

Fournette is listed as questionable but practiced all week and should be good to go.

Tier 2 – James Conner 

Conner scored 16.9 points in Week 1, picking up right where he left off in 2021. He didn’t leave the field on passing downs, eclipsed the 60% route participation threshold, and handled 53% of the rushing attempts. Before the game was out of hand, Conner accounted for 90% of snaps in the first half.

The Raiders only allowed 84 yards rushing and zero touchdowns against the Chargers in Week 1, but this game could shoot out with the fifth-largest game total on the slate. In that scenario, Conner has TD and receiving upside. He is another game-script-proof back, thanks to the elite utilization profile.

Tier 3 – Antonio Gibson 

Gibson draws the No. 1 RB SOS metric per PFF in a game tied for the fifth-highest total on the slate against the Lions. Detroit gave up 216 rushing yards to the Eagles in Week 1.

J.D. McKissic will operate as the primary two-minute and long-down-distance option, but Gibson can still get involved in the passing game on early downs.

Tier 3 – Chase Edmonds 

Edmonds fell a bit flat with 10.5 points in Week 1 against the Patriots, but his underlying Utilization was encouraging. There was some thought that Raheem Mostert would lead the way in the rushing department, but Edmonds locked down 52% of the carries and tacked on a 57% route participation.

Since 2011, 38 RBs have reached 45% of attempts and 55% route participation. All 38 finished as top-24 RBs, and 25 posted top-six finishes. Say it with me: WE LOVE EXPLOSIVE PASS-CATCHING RBs!!!

The Jets’ RBs tagged the Ravens for 13 receptions and 78 receiving yards in Week 1. I have Edmons six spots ahead of industry consensus.

Tier 3 – Darrell Henderson

Henderson’s utilization profile from Week 1 was as good as it gets.

• Snaps: 82%
• Rushing attempts: 81%
• Route participation: 78%
• Target share: 12%

He only managed 12.3 fantasy points on that workload, but the matchup is better this week against the Falcons, who allowed 151 yards and a touchdown to the Saints. If Henderson sees the same role as Week 1, he will finish in the top-10 backs in Week 2.

This rank is three spots higher than the industry consensus, as some are concerned that Cam Akers could play a more significant role.

Tier 3 – A.J. Dillon 

He might be ranked too low, given his ability to remain relevant in Week 1 in a trailing game script. However, his role in the passing game differs from Aaron Jones, who can work all levels and owns the two-minute snaps, keeping me skeptical about Dillon’s value if games go wrong.

Having said all of that, this shouldn’t be one of those games – the Packers are double-digit favorites at home against the Bears. There are real concerns about Green Bay’s offense, given their lack of target-generators with Davante Adams gone. Maybe Allen Lazard can prove me wrong in his return and kick-start the offense (he would be an outlier if he does).

Wide Receiver

Tier 1 – Davante Adams 

Adams was an absolute MONSTER in Week 1, posting a mind-numbing 45% target share in his first game with the Raiders. In Week 2, he draws the Cardinals’ secondary that Patrick Mahomes obliterated for 360 yards and five TDs.

The Raiders offer the fourth-highest implied points on the slate in a matchup with the second-best game total. Adams checks boxes for miles in Week 2, making him my WR1 overall.

Tier 2 – Tyreek Hill 

Hill won’t demand a 39% target share every game, but Week 1 is a reminder that this is a condensed offense. Hill and Jaylen Waddle accounted for 57% of the targets. We should expect that trend to continue.

The Dolphins utilized 21 and 12 personnel on 52% of their plays – the second-highest total of Week 1. In those scenarios, the other target competition is Durham Smythe, Alec Ingold, and occasionally Mike Gesicki, plus whoever is in at RB.

Hill and Waddle are both top-end talents that can demand targets in any offense, but in this scheme, the next option is a distant third, creating room for both to pull down robust target shares.

Tier 3 – Amon-Ra St. Brown 

St. Brown has seven straight games with a 30% target share or better. Let that sink in for a moment. Jared Goff loves his slot receiver – just like he loved Cooper Kupp to a No. 4 overall finish in 2019.

Sep 11, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) scores and celebrates a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second half at Ford Field. Nfl Philadelphia Eagles At Detroit Lions

In Week 2, the Sun God draws a matchup with surprise shootout potential (No. 5 game total) against the Commanders, who let Christian Kirk get loose for six catches and 117 yards, mostly from the slot.

You are looking at a top-10 WR on this slate – life comes at you fast.

Tier 3 – Marquise Brown 

Brown couldn’t garner the hefty target share we hoped for in Week 1 against the Chiefs. Sometimes things don’t work out, but the process remains the same, and he could get another shot this week. Rondale Moore and Zack Ertz missed practice on Wednesday and might not be 100%, even if they manage to play.

Brown was on the field for a sizzling 96% of pass plays and led the team in air yards (45%) and end zone targets (67%) per PFF. Look for the underrated playmaker and Kyler Murray to get things going against the Raiders in a game with gobs of upside (top-two game total).

Tier 3 – Michael Thomas 

Thomas scored two receiving touchdowns in his return to the gridiron against the Falcons on Sunday. Thomas was Jameis Winston’s go-to WR on end-zone targets (67%), and he led the team in route participation (83%) and demanded a 26% target share. Not too bad for a guy nursing a hamstring injury.

The Saints face the Buccaneers in Week 2, and while the game total (44) and implied points (20.75) don’t look great, they don’t have to with Thomas. When a player with two 28%-plus target share seasons shows he is healthy, we shouldn’t need four games to get on board.

This rank is eight spots ahead of industry consensus.

Tight End

Tier 1 – Mark Andrews 

Andrews was a mortal in Week 1, posting a mere 10.2 points. However, his utilization remained SUPERHUMAN.

• Route Participation: 94%
• Target Share: 29%
• Air Yards: 28%
• Targets off of play action: 43%

No other tight end saw higher route participation or target share in Week 1. Big things are coming for Andrews, and the matchup doesn’t matter.

Tier 4 – Albert Okwuegbunam 

Okwuegbunam flashed an elite profile operating in a part-time role over the last two years. In 2021, he delivered a 24% target rate and 1.94 yards per route run – numbers that we expect from the top-six options in the game.

However, drafters cooled on Albert O. this preseason when he was forced to play deep into preseason games while other starters rested. In Week 1, he voided the concerns with a 77% route participation.

The Broncos were forced out of their 21-personnel groupings in a trailing script, where Okwuegbunam picked up more routes in the two-minute offense. A better route participation target is probably 70%, but that is still more than double what we have seen from him in the past and enough for him to carve out more work if his talent profile wasn’t a mirage.

Tier 4 – Tyler Higbee 

Higbee registered the third-best route participation at tight end in Week 1. Unfortunately, I am a bit jaded on Higbee because he never lived up to his underlying utilization last season. Despite that, we have to follow the data, and Higbee registered the second-best target share on the team (23%), with Allen Robinson II struggling to find a rhythm with Matthew Stafford.

The Rams provide the No. 3 game total, and Atlanta is the second-best TE matchup according to the TE SOS metric at PFF. Higbee is back in the high-end TE2 discussion in Week 2. Let’s see if he can make us believe in more.

Tier 4 – Hunter Henry 

Henry posted a salivating 83% route participation in Week 1 against the Dolphins despite an increased role for Jonnu Smith. Despite trailing by four or more points on 68% of snaps, the Patriots stuck with their 12 personnel package on 38% of plays (second-most).

So, much of Smith’s 54% route participation came with Henry on the field, which is a fantastic development. The Patriots’ pecking order outside of Jakobi Meyers is a major question mark, and Henry has delivered three top-12 finishes over the last three campaigns on fewer routes.

Henry is a borderline TE1 in Week 2 against the Steelers.

KEY:

•  Total = Game total per BetMGM
•  Implied points = Team expected points based on game total and spread
• Route participation = routes divided by team pass plays per PFF
• LDD = long  down and distance – second, third and fourth down with three or more yards to go per PFF
• SDD = short down and distance – third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go per PFF
• TPRR = targets per route run
• YPRR = yards per route run
• Explosive rush rate = percentage of runs that go for 10-plus yards per PFF
• Explosive target rate = percentage of targets that go for 15-plus yards per PFF
• Injuries: Q = Questionable; D = Doubtful (typically removed from ranks on Saturday); GTD = game-time decision