It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 4 of the fantasy football season.
Below you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, betting totals, and implied points for every game on the slate.
Find all of our positional rankings here.
Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers – Week 4
Last updated: 12:49 pm, Sunday, October 1st. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!
Quarterback
| Tier | Pos Rnk | Player | Opp | Total | Spread | Implied Points | PPG |
| 1 | QB1 | Josh Allen | at BAL | 51.0 | -3.0 | 27.00 | 30.0 |
| 1 | QB2 | Lamar Jackson | vs BUF | 51.0 | 3.0 | 24.00 | 34.7 |
| 1 | QB3 | Jalen Hurts | vs JAC | 45.5 | -6.5 | 26.00 | 28.8 |
| 2 | QB4 | Joe Burrow | vs MIA | 48.5 | -3.5 | 26.00 | 20.6 |
| 2 | QB5 | Patrick Mahomes II | at TB | 45.5 | 1.0 | 22.25 | 23.4 |
| 2 | QB6 | Kyler Murray | at CAR | 43.5 | 1.0 | 21.25 | 20.3 |
| 2 | QB7 | Justin Herbert | at HOU | 45.0 | -6.0 | 25.50 | 20.5 |
| 3 | QB8 | Tua Tagovailoa | at CIN | 48.5 | 3.5 | 22.50 | 22.4 |
| 3 | QB9 | Tom Brady | vs KC | 45.5 | -1.0 | 23.25 | 11.8 |
| 3 | QB10 | Derek Carr | vs DEN | 45.5 | -2.5 | 24.00 | 18.9 |
| 3 | QB11 | Kirk Cousins | at NO | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 16.4 |
| 3 | QB12 | Russell Wilson | at LV | 45.5 | 2.5 | 21.50 | 13.0 |
| 3 | QB13 | Marcus Mariota | vs CLE | 47.0 | 1.0 | 23.00 | 17.3 |
| 4 | QB14 | Carson Wentz | at DAL | 41.5 | 3.0 | 19.25 | 22.4 |
| 4 | QB15 | Matthew Stafford | at SF | 42.5 | 1.5 | 20.50 | 14.0 |
| 4 | QB16 | Aaron Rodgers | vs NE | 40.0 | -9.5 | 24.75 | 12.7 |
| 4 | QB17 | Trevor Lawrence | at PHI | 45.5 | 6.5 | 19.50 | 19.4 |
| 4 | QB18 | Jared Goff | vs SEA | 48.0 | -3.5 | 25.75 | 19.1 |
| 5 | QB19 | Geno Smith | at DET | 48.0 | 3.5 | 22.25 | 14.7 |
| 5 | QB20 | Ryan Tannehill | at IND | 43.0 | 3.5 | 19.75 | 14.0 |
| 5 | QB21 | Matt Ryan | vs TEN | 43.0 | -3.5 | 23.25 | 12.1 |
| 5 | QB22 | Zach Wilson | at PIT | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 0.0 |
| 5 | QB23 | Jacoby Brissett | at ATL | 47.0 | -1.0 | 24.00 | 15.1 |
| 5 | QB24 | Baker Mayfield | vs ARI | 43.5 | -1.0 | 22.25 | 14.3 |
| 5 | QB25 | Jimmy Garoppolo | vs LAR | 42.5 | -1.5 | 22.00 | 13.1 |
| 5 | QB26 | Mitch Trubisky | vs NYJ | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 13.4 |
| 5 | QB27 | Cooper Rush | vs WAS | 41.5 | -3.0 | 22.25 | 9.5 |
| 5 | QB28 | Davis Mills | vs LAC | 45.0 | 6.0 | 19.50 | 11.5 |
| 5 | QB29 | Daniel Jones | vs CHI | 39.5 | -3.0 | 21.25 | 14.9 |
| 5 | QB30 | Justin Fields | at NYG | 39.5 | 3.0 | 18.25 | 10.4 |
| 5 | QB31 | Andy Dalton | vs MIN | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 0.0 |
| 5 | QB32 | Brian Hoyer | at GB | 40.0 | 9.5 | 15.25 | 0.0 |
Tier 2 – Joe Burrow
Burrow is the No. 7 fantasy QB with 20.6 points per game, and he draws a matchup against a Dolphins secondary that has offered up the second-most regulation passing yards (931) over the first three games.
Miami uses man coverage the second-most (41%) in the NFL, but they don’t have Byron Jones (PUP), and Xavien Howard is battling a groin injury. The Bengals have the weapons to challenge this unit with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and offer the top-four implied total.
Burrow is a top-five option in Week 4.
Tier 2 – Kyler Murray
Marquise Brown (foot) is questionable, but we could see Rondale Moore return.
If Brown misses the game, Murray downgrades to QB7.
Tier 4 – Jared Goff
Goff will be without Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift, and D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds are questionable due to ankle injuries.
Seattle still offers a good matchup, but Goff drops to mid-range QB2 status.
Running Back
| Tier | Pos Rnk | Player | Opp | Total | Spread | Implied Points | PPG |
| 1 | RB1 | Jonathan Taylor | vs TEN | 43.0 | -3.5 | 23.25 | 15.6 |
| 1 | RB2 | Saquon Barkley | vs CHI | 39.5 | -3.0 | 21.25 | 22.6 |
| 2 | RB3 | Christian McCaffrey | vs ARI | 43.5 | -1.0 | 22.25 | 15.3 |
| 2 | RB4 | Nick Chubb | at ATL | 47.0 | -1.0 | 24.00 | 21.6 |
| 2 | RB5 | Austin Ekeler | at HOU | 45.0 | -6.0 | 25.50 | 14.3 |
| 2 | RB6 | Joe Mixon | vs MIA | 48.5 | -3.5 | 26.00 | 13.2 |
| 2 | RB7 | Derrick Henry | at IND | 43.0 | 3.5 | 19.75 | 14.0 |
| 2 | RB8 | Leonard Fournette | vs KC | 45.5 | -1.0 | 23.25 | 12.4 |
| 2 | RB9 | Jamaal Williams | vs SEA | 48.0 | -3.5 | 25.75 | 15.9 |
| 3 | RB10 | Aaron Jones | vs NE | 40.0 | -9.5 | 24.75 | 16.1 |
| 3 | RB11 | Najee Harris | vs NYJ | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 12.5 |
| 3 | RB12 | Alvin Kamara | vs MIN | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 7.5 |
| 3 | RB13 | Khalil Herbert | at NYG | 39.5 | 3.0 | 18.25 | 15.8 |
| 3 | RB14 | Cordarrelle Patterson | vs CLE | 47.0 | 1.0 | 23.00 | 16.3 |
| 3 | RB15 | Javonte Williams | at LV | 45.5 | 2.5 | 21.50 | 12.8 |
| 3 | RB16 | James Conner | at CAR | 43.5 | 1.0 | 21.25 | 10.8 |
| 4 | RB17 | Dalvin Cook | at NO | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 11.7 |
| 4 | RB18 | James Robinson | at PHI | 45.5 | 6.5 | 19.50 | 18.8 |
| 4 | RB19 | Antonio Gibson | at DAL | 41.5 | 3.0 | 19.25 | 14.4 |
| 4 | RB20 | Jeff Wilson Jr. | vs LAR | 42.5 | -1.5 | 22.00 | 9.6 |
| 4 | RB21 | Miles Sanders | vs JAC | 45.5 | -6.5 | 26.00 | 11.8 |
| 4 | RB22 | Dameon Pierce | vs LAC | 45.0 | 6.0 | 19.50 | 10.6 |
| 4 | RB23 | Kareem Hunt | at ATL | 47.0 | -1.0 | 24.00 | 13.8 |
| 4 | RB24 | AJ Dillon | vs NE | 40.0 | -9.5 | 24.75 | 11.2 |
| 4 | RB25 | Ezekiel Elliott | vs WAS | 41.5 | -3.0 | 22.25 | 8.8 |
| 4 | RB26 | Josh Jacobs | vs DEN | 45.5 | -2.5 | 24.00 | 10.7 |
| 4 | RB27 | Rhamondre Stevenson | at GB | 40.0 | 9.5 | 15.25 | 10.3 |
| 4 | RB28 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | at TB | 45.5 | 1.0 | 22.25 | 17.7 |
| 4 | RB29 | Devin Singletary | at BAL | 51.0 | -3.0 | 27.00 | 12.1 |
| 4 | RB30 | Breece Hall | at PIT | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 12.8 |
| 4 | RB31 | Tony Pollard | vs WAS | 41.5 | -3.0 | 22.25 | 11.5 |
| 4 | RB32 | Rashaad Penny | at DET | 48.0 | 3.5 | 22.25 | 6.0 |
| 5 | RB33 | Damien Harris | at GB | 40.0 | 9.5 | 15.25 | 12.4 |
| 5 | RB34 | Michael Carter | at PIT | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 10.9 |
| 5 | RB35 | Cam Akers | at SF | 42.5 | 1.5 | 20.50 | 6.1 |
| 5 | RB36 | Melvin Gordon III | at LV | 45.5 | 2.5 | 21.50 | 10.0 |
| 5 | RB37 | Travis Etienne Jr. | at PHI | 45.5 | 6.5 | 19.50 | 9.1 |
| 5 | RB38 | Chase Edmonds | at CIN | 48.5 | 3.5 | 22.50 | 10.4 |
| 5 | RB39 | J.K. Dobbins | vs BUF | 51.0 | 3.0 | 24.00 | 6.0 |
| 5 | RB40 | J.D. McKissic | at DAL | 41.5 | 3.0 | 19.25 | 10.4 |
| 5 | RB41 | Nyheim Hines | vs TEN | 43.0 | -3.5 | 23.25 | 9.0 |
| 5 | RB42 | Darrell Henderson Jr. | at SF | 42.5 | 1.5 | 20.50 | 8.2 |
| 5 | RB43 | Alexander Mattison | at NO | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 6.5 |
| 5 | RB44 | Raheem Mostert | at CIN | 48.5 | 3.5 | 22.50 | 5.4 |
| 5 | RB45 | Jerick McKinnon | at TB | 45.5 | 1.0 | 22.25 | 6.5 |
| 6 | RB46 | Rex Burkhead | vs LAC | 45.0 | 6.0 | 19.50 | 7.3 |
| 6 | RB47 | Ken Walker III | at DET | 48.0 | 3.5 | 22.25 | 4.9 |
| 6 | RB48 | Kenneth Gainwell | vs JAC | 45.5 | -6.5 | 26.00 | 4.9 |
| 6 | RB49 | Samaje Perine | vs MIA | 48.5 | -3.5 | 26.00 | 7.6 |
| 6 | RB50 | Mark Ingram II | vs MIN | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 5.1 |
| 6 | RB51 | Tyler Allgeier | vs CLE | 47.0 | 1.0 | 23.00 | 3.5 |
| 6 | RB52 | Dontrell Hilliard | at IND | 43.0 | 3.5 | 19.75 | 13.7 |
| 6 | RB53 | Craig Reynolds | vs SEA | 48.0 | -3.5 | 25.75 | 3.4 |
| 6 | RB54 | Eno Benjamin | at CAR | 43.5 | 1.0 | 21.25 | 7.2 |
| 6 | RB55 | Zack Moss | at BAL | 51.0 | -3.0 | 27.00 | 5.2 |
| 7 | RB56 | Sony Michel | at HOU | 45.0 | -6.0 | 25.50 | 2.7 |
| 7 | RB57 | James Cook | at BAL | 51.0 | -3.0 | 27.00 | 3.8 |
| 7 | RB58 | Jaylen Warren | vs NYJ | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 2.5 |
| 7 | RB59 | Justice Hill | vs BUF | 51.0 | 3.0 | 24.00 | 3.6 |
| 7 | RB60 | Rachaad White | vs KC | 45.5 | -1.0 | 23.25 | 1.4 |
| 7 | RB61 | Brandon Bolden | vs DEN | 45.5 | -2.5 | 24.00 | 7.5 |
| 7 | RB62 | Joshua Kelley | at HOU | 45.0 | -6.0 | 25.50 | 3.8 |
| 7 | RB63 | Darrel Williams | at CAR | 43.5 | 1.0 | 21.25 | 7.5 |
| 7 | RB64 | Isiah Pacheco | at TB | 45.5 | 1.0 | 22.25 | 4.6 |
| 7 | RB65 | Trestan Ebner | at NYG | 39.5 | 3.0 | 18.25 | 0.8 |
| 7 | RB66 | D'Onta Foreman | vs ARI | 43.5 | -1.0 | 22.25 | 0.7 |
| 7 | RB67 | Matt Breida | vs CHI | 39.5 | -3.0 | 21.25 | 0.8 |
| 7 | RB68 | DeeJay Dallas | at DET | 48.0 | 3.5 | 22.25 | 1.6 |
| 7 | RB69 | Jordan Mason | vs LAR | 42.5 | -1.5 | 22.00 | 0.2 |
| 7 | RB70 | Chuba Hubbard | vs ARI | 43.5 | -1.0 | 22.25 | 0.3 |
Tier 1 – Jonathan Taylor
Taylor is listed as questionable (toe) after missing Wednesday’s practice but is expected to play this weekend.
The third-year back has disappointed fantasy managers with his 15.3 points per game, but a matchup against the Titans could help him turn the corner. Tennessee has coughed up the fourth-most yards on the ground in regulation play (430) and rank sixth-worst in EPA allowed versus the run, per PFF.
The Colts are 3.5-point favorites at home, providing a close game script that should keep the ground game in play. Even if Indianapolis falls behind, Taylor has taken over the long-down-distance snaps in the passing game, keeping his route participation around 60% each game.
| Player | Week | Snaps | Rush Att | Routes | Targets | TPRR | SDD Snaps | i5 Att | LDD Snaps | 2MIN Snaps | PPR |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 76% | 86% | 64% | 13% | 18% | 82% | 50% | 55% | 47% | 27.5 |
| 2 | 74% | 64% | 61% | 4% | 5% | 100% | 0% | 83% | 0% | 7.3 | |
| 3 | 76% | 81% | 58% | 12% | 16% | 88% | 100% | 54% | 0% | 12.1 | |
| YTD | 76% | 80% | 61% | 10% | 14% | 86% | 75% | 64% | 35% | 15.6 |
Taylor’s utilization profile is as robust as ever, and his efficiency metrics remain strong per PFF data.
Jonathan Taylor’s rushing efficiency vs. three-year NFL averages:
| Missed Tackles Forced % | Average Yards After Contact | Explosive Rush % |
0.26 (+0.9) | 3.13 (+0.2) | 13% (+1.5) |
Taylor still provides an elite mix of utilization and efficiency and has the right matchup to make him RB1 overall in Week 4
Tier 1 – Saquon Barkley
Barkley is finally healthy, and it shows in his 4.64 yards after contact, which is the second-highest in the NFL (minimum 20 attempts). The former No. 1 overall NFL draft pick ranks first out of all RBs in snap share (86%) and route participation (75%).
When efficiency and utilization come together, it is a beautiful thing. Barkley is your fantasy football RB1 with 22.6 points per game.
In Week 4, the Giants host the Bears as three-point favorites. Opponents have 99 attempts (No. 2) for 472 yards (No. 2) against the Bears, whose offense ranks 28th in time of possession (45%). Expect Barkley to have ample opportunities to do damage in Week 4.
Barkley is my RB2 in Week 4.
Tier 2 – Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey is questionable due to a quad injury that could keep him out of Sunday’s game against the Cardinals. It is a late game, so fantasy managers need a backup plan. D’Onta Foreman is probably the No. 1 option behind CMC, but it could be a gross committee with Chuba Hubbard, who could take passing downs.
McCaffrey falls out of the top five this weekend and carries a much lower floor than usual.
Foreman and Hubbard are backup options but should be avoided.
Tier 2 – Austin Ekeler
Ekeler’s efficiency metrics are down, per PFF data. Out of 42 RBs with at least 20 rushing attempts, he ranks 36th in average yards after contact (2.41) and last in explosive-rush rate (0%) through three weeks of play.
His efficiency in the passing game remains elite, with a 31% TPRR and 1.99 YPRR, but his overall utilization profile isn’t as strong as it was in 2021. He has left the field for all six snaps inside the five-yard line, even though five have been passing attempts.
Ekeler’s TD explosion last season was enabled by a lead role close to the goal line, and that might not be the case in 2022. His role in the two-minute offense (80%) accounts for 25% of his fantasy production, protecting his floor outcomes. Still, we need stronger efficiency and TD opportunity for Ekeler to payoff as a mid-first-round fantasy pick.
The veteran back lands a plus matchup against the Texans that allowed the Bears to romp for 280 yards on the ground in Week 3. No team has donated more rushing attempts (103) and yards (591) in regulation play than Houston.
Ekeler is a top-five option in a sweet matchup with the Chargers as five-point favorites (third-largest) and top-six implied point total.
Tier 2 – Jamaal Williams
Williams is set to take on an every-down role with D’Andre Swift (shoulder) set to miss the Lions’ Week 4 tilt against the Seahawks. Things don’t line up better than this; the veteran back checks every box:
- Utilization: should handle 65%-plus of the workload on the ground and eclipse 60% route participation
- Game script: the Lions are 3.5-point favorites (fourth-best on the slate), keeping the ground game in play
- Scoring environment: Detroit has the third-best implied points on the slate, offering big TD-upside
- Matchup: the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most regulation rushing attempts (96) and third-highest rushing yardage (472)
This is a rare alignment of events, making the veteran a SMASH play. Williams is a top-10 RB in my ranks.
Tier 3 – Alvin Kamara
Kamara (ribs) was limited in practice on Wednesday but played through the injury in Week 3. He suffered the injury in Week 1, which could be a factor in the efficiency dip.
The veteran is below his career average in missed tackles forced (17%), average yards after contact (2.71), and explosive rush rate (8%). However, the most concerning of all is his TPRR (21%) and YPRR (0.44), whose career averages are 29% and 2.06.
Despite the injury and efficiency woes, Kamara reached the utilization levels we have grown accustomed to with 70% of snaps, 65% of rushing attempts, and a 14% target share in Week 3. He regained the lead role in the two-minute offense (92%), which helped boost his route participation back near elite levels (61%).
The Saints don’t project to score many points against the Vikings (19 implied), but the matchup is juicy. The Vikings have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards in regulation, plus five TDs.
Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry missed practice on Wednesday, and if one should miss the game, Kamara could see a boost in target share. Andy Dalton could also make an appearance and is more willing to get his backs involved than Jameis Winston.
Kamara will move to SMASH status as a top-10 option if we hear he is healthy. For now, I have him two spots ahead of consensus as my RB12.
Tier 3 – Khalil Herbert
David Montgomery won’t play in Week 4. Herbert has RB40, RB11, RB8, RB34, and RB1 finishes in appearances without Montgomery dating back to 2021.
Herbert has RB40, RB11, RB8, RB34, and RB1 finishes in appearances without Montgomery dating back to 2021.
The Bears' offense hasn’t been pretty, but they are committed to the running game. Chicago has played 57% of their snaps with the score within three points and has run the ball 59% of the time. That is 19 percentage points above the NFL average over the last three seasons. In a game projected for a close finish, (three-point dogs) expect Herbert to see plenty of touches in Week 4 against the Giants.
Herbert is a SMASH play as a top-15 option in Week 4.
Tier 4 – Miles Sanders
The Eagles will be without Boston Scott this weekend, providing Sanders with less competition for touches.
Sanders is a low-end RB2 against a stingy Jaguars run defense.
Tier 4 – Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson doesn’t have a good matchup or game environment in Week 4 against the Packers, with Bryan Hoyer expected to lead the Patriots’ attack. However, his recent surge in utilization is enough to consider him a low-end RB2 in PPR formats.
On utilization alone, I have Stevenson four spots ahead of expert consensus.
Wide Receiver
| Tier | Pos Rnk | Player | Opp | Total | Spread | Implied Points | PPG |
| 1 | WR1 | Stefon Diggs | at BAL | 51.0 | -3.0 | 27.00 | 28.5 |
| 1 | WR2 | Cooper Kupp | at SF | 42.5 | 1.5 | 20.50 | 26.7 |
| 1 | WR3 | Justin Jefferson | at NO | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 18.2 |
| 1 | WR4 | Ja'Marr Chase | vs MIA | 48.5 | -3.5 | 26.00 | 17.5 |
| 2 | WR5 | Davante Adams | vs DEN | 45.5 | -2.5 | 24.00 | 17.8 |
| 2 | WR6 | Tyreek Hill | at CIN | 48.5 | 3.5 | 22.50 | 21.8 |
| 2 | WR7 | A.J. Brown | vs JAC | 45.5 | -6.5 | 26.00 | 19.0 |
| 2 | WR8 | Michael Pittman Jr. | vs TEN | 43.0 | -3.5 | 23.25 | 21.2 |
| 2 | WR9 | Jaylen Waddle | at CIN | 48.5 | 3.5 | 22.50 | 24.3 |
| 2 | WR10 | Mike Evans | vs KC | 45.5 | -1.0 | 23.25 | 13.6 |
| 2 | WR11 | Tee Higgins | vs MIA | 48.5 | -3.5 | 26.00 | 12.7 |
| 3 | WR12 | Deebo Samuel | vs LAR | 42.5 | -1.5 | 22.00 | 13.4 |
| 3 | WR13 | CeeDee Lamb | vs WAS | 41.5 | -3.0 | 22.25 | 14.2 |
| 3 | WR14 | Courtland Sutton | at LV | 45.5 | 2.5 | 21.50 | 16.2 |
| 3 | WR15 | Christian Kirk | at PHI | 45.5 | 6.5 | 19.50 | 20.9 |
| 3 | WR16 | Marquise Brown | at CAR | 43.5 | 1.0 | 21.25 | 18.4 |
| 3 | WR17 | Drake London | vs CLE | 47.0 | 1.0 | 23.00 | 17.1 |
| 3 | WR18 | Mike Williams | at HOU | 45.0 | -6.0 | 25.50 | 12.3 |
| 3 | WR19 | Diontae Johnson | vs NYJ | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 14.2 |
| 3 | WR20 | Amari Cooper | at ATL | 47.0 | -1.0 | 24.00 | 17.6 |
| 3 | WR21 | DK Metcalf | at DET | 48.0 | 3.5 | 22.25 | 11.2 |
| 3 | WR22 | Chris Olave | vs MIN | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 14.6 |
| 3 | WR23 | DeVonta Smith | vs JAC | 45.5 | -6.5 | 26.00 | 15.3 |
| 4 | WR24 | Brandin Cooks | vs LAC | 45.0 | 6.0 | 19.50 | 9.6 |
| 4 | WR25 | Rashod Bateman | vs BUF | 51.0 | 3.0 | 24.00 | 13.5 |
| 4 | WR26 | Gabe Davis | at BAL | 51.0 | -3.0 | 27.00 | 12.8 |
| 4 | WR27 | Terry McLaurin | at DAL | 41.5 | 3.0 | 19.25 | 14.1 |
| 4 | WR28 | Curtis Samuel | at DAL | 41.5 | 3.0 | 19.25 | 18.4 |
| 4 | WR29 | Tyler Lockett | at DET | 48.0 | 3.5 | 22.25 | 14.0 |
| 4 | WR30 | DJ Moore | vs ARI | 43.5 | -1.0 | 22.25 | 7.9 |
| 4 | WR31 | Garrett Wilson | at PIT | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 17.1 |
| 4 | WR32 | Joshua Palmer | at HOU | 45.0 | -6.0 | 25.50 | 10.9 |
| 4 | WR33 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | at TB | 45.5 | 1.0 | 22.25 | 9.9 |
| 4 | WR34 | Brandon Aiyuk | vs LAR | 42.5 | -1.5 | 22.00 | 10.3 |
| 4 | WR35 | Elijah Moore | at PIT | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 8.4 |
| 4 | WR36 | Adam Thielen | at NO | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 11.3 |
| 4 | WR37 | Jerry Jeudy | at LV | 45.5 | 2.5 | 21.50 | 8.7 |
| 5 | WR38 | Romeo Doubs | vs NE | 40.0 | -9.5 | 24.75 | 11.6 |
| 5 | WR39 | Treylon Burks | at IND | 43.0 | 3.5 | 19.75 | 6.8 |
| 5 | WR40 | Allen Lazard | vs NE | 40.0 | -9.5 | 24.75 | 11.9 |
| 5 | WR41 | Greg Dortch | at CAR | 43.5 | 1.0 | 21.25 | 15.3 |
| 5 | WR42 | Russell Gage | vs KC | 45.5 | -1.0 | 23.25 | 11.9 |
| 5 | WR43 | Allen Robinson II | at SF | 42.5 | 1.5 | 20.50 | 7.3 |
| 5 | WR44 | Jahan Dotson | at DAL | 41.5 | 3.0 | 19.25 | 13.0 |
| 5 | WR45 | Zay Jones | at PHI | 45.5 | 6.5 | 19.50 | 14.1 |
| 5 | WR46 | Robert Woods | at IND | 43.0 | 3.5 | 19.75 | 7.6 |
| 5 | WR47 | Jarvis Landry | vs MIN | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 9.7 |
| 5 | WR48 | Tyler Boyd | vs MIA | 48.5 | -3.5 | 26.00 | 13.2 |
| 5 | WR49 | Chase Claypool | vs NYJ | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 7.9 |
| 5 | WR50 | D.J. Chark Jr. | vs SEA | 48.0 | -3.5 | 25.75 | 7.6 |
| 5 | WR51 | Mack Hollins | vs DEN | 45.5 | -2.5 | 24.00 | 14.7 |
| 5 | WR52 | Darnell Mooney | at NYG | 39.5 | 3.0 | 18.25 | 2.2 |
| 6 | WR53 | Robbie Anderson | vs ARI | 43.5 | -1.0 | 22.25 | 9.3 |
| 6 | WR54 | Isaiah McKenzie | at BAL | 51.0 | -3.0 | 27.00 | 12.3 |
| 6 | WR56 | Richie James Jr. | vs CHI | 39.5 | -3.0 | 21.25 | 9.7 |
| 6 | WR57 | Josh Reynolds | vs SEA | 48.0 | -3.5 | 25.75 | 10.7 |
| 6 | WR58 | Noah Brown | vs WAS | 41.5 | -3.0 | 22.25 | 14.1 |
| 6 | WR59 | Julio Jones | vs KC | 45.5 | -1.0 | 23.25 | 11.6 |
| 6 | WR60 | George Pickens | vs NYJ | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 3.8 |
| 6 | WR61 | Corey Davis | at PIT | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 11.6 |
| 6 | WR62 | Marvin Jones Jr. | at PHI | 45.5 | 6.5 | 19.50 | 9.1 |
| 6 | WR63 | Nico Collins | vs LAC | 45.0 | 6.0 | 19.50 | 6.8 |
| 6 | WR64 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | at TB | 45.5 | 1.0 | 22.25 | 6.7 |
| 6 | WR65 | Rondale Moore | at CAR | 43.5 | 1.0 | 21.25 | 0.0 |
| 6 | WR66 | Michael Gallup | vs WAS | 41.5 | -3.0 | 22.25 | 0.0 |
| 6 | WR67 | K.J. Osborn | at NO | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 9.1 |
| 6 | WR68 | DeVante Parker | at GB | 40.0 | 9.5 | 15.25 | 7.5 |
| 6 | WR69 | Chris Godwin | vs KC | 45.5 | -1.0 | 23.25 | 6.5 |
| 7 | WR70 | Devin Duvernay | vs BUF | 51.0 | 3.0 | 24.00 | 14.6 |
| 7 | WR71 | Mecole Hardman | at TB | 45.5 | 1.0 | 22.25 | 6.4 |
| 7 | WR72 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | at ATL | 47.0 | -1.0 | 24.00 | 4.7 |
| 7 | WR73 | Nelson Agholor | at GB | 40.0 | 9.5 | 15.25 | 10.3 |
| 7 | WR74 | Equanimeous St. Brown | at NYG | 39.5 | 3.0 | 18.25 | 7.3 |
| 7 | WR75 | Alec Pierce | vs TEN | 43.0 | -3.5 | 23.25 | 4.6 |
| 7 | WR76 | Randall Cobb | vs NE | 40.0 | -9.5 | 24.75 | 5.9 |
| 7 | WR77 | Kenny Golladay | vs CHI | 39.5 | -3.0 | 21.25 | 2.1 |
| 7 | WR78 | Jamison Crowder | at BAL | 51.0 | -3.0 | 27.00 | 3.4 |
| 7 | WR79 | Olamide Zaccheaus | vs CLE | 47.0 | 1.0 | 23.00 | 8.0 |
| 7 | WR80 | Ben Skowronek | at SF | 42.5 | 1.5 | 20.50 | 6.9 |
| 7 | WR81 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | at IND | 43.0 | 3.5 | 19.75 | 3.9 |
| 7 | WR82 | Christian Watson | vs NE | 40.0 | -9.5 | 24.75 | 5.0 |
| 7 | WR83 | Chris Moore | vs LAC | 45.0 | 6.0 | 19.50 | 6.3 |
| 7 | WR84 | Parris Campbell | vs TEN | 43.0 | -3.5 | 23.25 | 3.2 |
| 7 | WR85 | Kendrick Bourne | at GB | 40.0 | 9.5 | 15.25 | 6.2 |
| 7 | WR86 | DeAndre Carter | at HOU | 45.0 | -6.0 | 25.50 | 9.8 |
| 7 | WR87 | Braxton Berrios | at PIT | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 3.6 |
| 7 | WR88 | K.J. Hamler | at LV | 45.5 | 2.5 | 21.50 | 0.0 |
| 7 | WR89 | Quez Watkins | vs JAC | 45.5 | -6.5 | 26.00 | 5.0 |
| 7 | WR90 | Ashton Dulin | vs TEN | 43.0 | -3.5 | 23.25 | 7.5 |
| 7 | WR91 | Jauan Jennings | vs LAR | 42.5 | -1.5 | 22.00 | 4.4 |
| 7 | WR92 | Marquise Goodwin | at DET | 48.0 | 3.5 | 22.25 | 3.1 |
| 7 | WR93 | David Sills V | vs CHI | 39.5 | -3.0 | 21.25 | 5.4 |
| 7 | WR94 | Skyy Moore | at TB | 45.5 | 1.0 | 22.25 | 0.7 |
| 7 | WR95 | Scotty Miller | vs KC | 45.5 | -1.0 | 23.25 | 4.3 |
| 7 | WR96 | Demarcus Robinson | vs BUF | 51.0 | 3.0 | 24.00 | 4.0 |
| 7 | WR97 | David Bell | at ATL | 47.0 | -1.0 | 24.00 | 1.6 |
| 7 | WR98 | Marquez Callaway | vs MIN | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 7.4 |
| 7 | WR99 | Kyle Philips | at IND | 43.0 | 3.5 | 19.75 | 5.1 |
Tier 1 – Stefon Diggs
No one needs me to tell them to start Diggs in their season-long leagues or DFS, so I won’t call him a smash play. However, this weekend, the fantasy football WR1 (28.5 points per game) is in a choice spot.
- Game Environment: The No. 1 implied points and the No. 1 game total
- Matchup: The Ravens have allowed the most receiving yards in regulation (1,099) and seven TDs
The underlying coverage grade for Baltimore is better than the yardage allowed, but Diggs and Josh Allen are on a heater on an offense averaging the third-most dropbacks per game (51) in regulation play.
Tier 2 – Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman is the No. 6 receiver in points per game (21.2), and he has the target shares to back it up in his two starts (28% and 26%).
The Colts face off against the Titans in Week 4, who allow the seventh-best EPA on passing plays. Opponents have gouged the Tennessee secondary for a whopping 812 yards and eight TDs in the passing game.
On a reasonably tame slate, the Colts offer a top-10 implied point total despite the low game total. This is a funnel passing attack, and the Colts are passing more than they did in 2021 in neutral game scripts, which provides Pittman with a buffer should the game turn into a blowout.
Tier 3 – CeeDee Lamb
Lamb had a good first two seasons in the NFL. Still, his inability to demand an elite target share (18%) or TPRR (22%) in Year 2 left many wondering if he was overpriced as a mid-second round pick in fantasy drafts this summer.
He has answered those questions in the first three games by delivering target shares of 26%, 34%, and 41%. His 33% target share ranks fourth in the NFL. He is averaging 14.2 points per game, but that number should rise given his utilization and an offense that should open things up a bit more once Dak Prescott returns.
Aug 13, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) warms up before the preseason game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Some might argue that Lambs' opportunities will wither in the face of target competition once Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz return to health. A 33% share isn’t sustainable anyway, but let’s avoid falling into the same trap many did with Amon-Ra St. Brown, citing a lack of weapons at the end of 2021 as the primary reason for his big boom.
Targets are earned, and Lamb checks a lot of breakout boxes as a third-year WR with significant draft capital.
In Week 4, the Cowboys matchup against the Commanders, who provide the sixth-best coverage matchup per PFF grades (53.3). Washington has allowed the third-most receiving yards (871) and six TDs through three games.
The game total and implied points keep Lamb out of smash territory, with the Cowboys trying to stay in game-manager mode so far with Cooper Rush. However, we have seen the Commanders score points in 2022, which opens up some sneaky upside for this game to outperform Vegas expectations.
Tier 3 – Marquise Brown
Brown is questionable with a foot injury, and Moore (hamstring) has a shot at returning after three limited practices.
If Brown and Moore are out, Dortch moves into low-end WR3 territory.
If Brown and Moore are active, he is a WR5.
Rondale Moore is a boom-bust WR4 if he plays.
Tier 3 – Drake London
London is the WR14 in fantasy football with 17.1 points per game, and it isn’t a fluke. The rookie ranks No. 5 in target share (32%), and the Falcons' heavy usage of play-action passing is helping him overcome a low-volume attack.
Over the last three seasons, play-action targets are worth 18% more than non-play-action for WRs. On average, WRs see 23% of their targets on play action, but London is at 42%.
Atlanta faces a Browns defense that has yielded 770 yards and five TDs passing through the first three games – an above-average matchup. The contest offers the No. 2 game total at BetMGM, and the Falcons have a top-eight implied scoring total.
The rookie WR comes in above industry consensus in my ranks and is a SMASH play.
Tier 3 – D.K. Metcalf
The Seahawks and Lions will battle in a matchup with the third-highest game total on the slate, offering an opportunity for fireworks.
Last week we saw the Seattle attack morph from one of the lowest-volume offenses in the league (48 plays per game) into a 69-play squadron. Pete Carroll said this adjustment would be made, and he followed through. This development, paired with Geno Smith’s respectable 71.7 PFF passing grade – eighth-best in the NFL – makes the Seattle WRs much better options moving forward.
Detroit is the No. 1 man coverage team (45%) per PFF data. The Lions limited Justin Jefferson, shadowing him with Jeff Okudah and playing a safety over the top.
However, Metcalf has been targeted on an eye-popping 41% of routes against man looks since 2021. Expect the Seahawks to attack this matchup.
Metcalf could see plenty of attention this weekend, but he has a tendency to come through in these spots, making him a SMASH play in Week 4.
Tier 3 - Mike Williams
After a setback in practice, Keenan Allen won’t play on Sunday. The Chargers' offense struggled in Week 3 with a banged-up Justin Herbert, but the QB got in two full practices to finish this week and appears to be in better shape.
Williams posted 25.3 points in Week 2 without Allen and is a mid-range WR2 this weekend against the Texans.
Tier 3 – Chris Olave
Olave likely won’t have Jameis Winston tossing him deep balls, but Michael Thomas won’t play. What the rookie loses in air yards, he picks up in reduced target competition. He already has back-to-back 30%-plus target shares.
Olave is a low-end WR2 against the Vikings in London on Sunday morning.
Tier 4 – Joshua Palmer
Palmer has averaged 15.5 points with a 21% target share in three games without Keenan Allen dating back to last season.
Palmer moves into mid-range WR3 territory this weekend against Houston.
Tier 5 – D.J. Chark
Amon-Ra St. Brown won’t play this weekend, opening the door for Chark or Josh Reynolds to earn more looks. However, both are questionable due to ankle injuries. Both have one top-24 finish on the books this season.
If active, Chark and Reynolds are boom-bust WR4 options against a generous Seahawks secondary.
Tier 5 – Mack Hollins
Hollins surprised fantasy managers with a 30-point outing in Week 3 without Hunter Renfrow (concussion) in the lineup. With Renfrow and Foster Moreau out for Week 4, Hollins is in a prime position again. He has 20% and 23% target shares in his last two games.
Hollins is a low-end WR4 option against a tough Broncos secondary.
Tier 6 – Richie James
The Giants lost Sterling Shepard for the season, and Wan’Dale Robinson and Kadarius Toney won’t play. James has never been a great target earner in his career (11%, 10% and 14% TPRR). However, this season he has been decent with a 19% TPRR.
James could come through on Sunday, but his talent profile is lacking, and the game environment between the Giants and Bears isn’t stimulating – especially if the weather becomes a factor. If he steams in DFS, he is an easy fade.
James is a WR5 option in Week 4.
Tight End
| Tier | Pos Rnk | Player | Opp | Total | Spread | Implied Points | PPG |
| 1 | TE1 | Mark Andrews | vs BUF | 51.0 | 3.0 | 24.00 | 21.6 |
| 1 | TE2 | Travis Kelce | at TB | 45.5 | 1.0 | 22.25 | 18.0 |
| 2 | TE3 | Darren Waller | vs DEN | 45.5 | -2.5 | 24.00 | 11.4 |
| 2 | TE4 | Kyle Pitts | vs CLE | 47.0 | 1.0 | 23.00 | 7.2 |
| 2 | TE5 | George Kittle | vs LAR | 42.5 | -1.5 | 22.00 | 6.8 |
| 2 | TE6 | Dallas Goedert | vs JAC | 45.5 | -6.5 | 26.00 | 11.3 |
| 2 | TE7 | Zach Ertz | at CAR | 43.5 | 1.0 | 21.25 | 12.5 |
| 2 | TE8 | T.J. Hockenson | vs SEA | 48.0 | -3.5 | 25.75 | 8.1 |
| 3 | TE9 | Tyler Higbee | at SF | 42.5 | 1.5 | 20.50 | 11.0 |
| 3 | TE10 | Pat Freiermuth | vs NYJ | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 10.3 |
| 3 | TE11 | Gerald Everett | at HOU | 45.0 | -6.0 | 25.50 | 10.7 |
| 3 | TE12 | David Njoku | at ATL | 47.0 | -1.0 | 24.00 | 10.6 |
| 3 | TE13 | Tyler Conklin | at PIT | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 12.7 |
| 3 | TE14 | Dalton Schultz | vs WAS | 41.5 | -3.0 | 22.25 | 7.5 |
| 3 | TE15 | Evan Engram | at PHI | 45.5 | 6.5 | 19.50 | 7.4 |
| 3 | TE16 | Dawson Knox | at BAL | 51.0 | -3.0 | 27.00 | 5.4 |
| 3 | TE17 | Hayden Hurst | vs MIA | 48.5 | -3.5 | 26.00 | 6.2 |
| 4 | TE18 | Logan Thomas | at DAL | 41.5 | 3.0 | 19.25 | 7.6 |
| 4 | TE19 | Irv Smith Jr. | at NO | 41.5 | -3.5 | 22.50 | 6.6 |
| 4 | TE20 | Robert Tonyan | vs NE | 40.0 | -9.5 | 24.75 | 6.5 |
| 4 | TE21 | Mike Gesicki | at CIN | 48.5 | 3.5 | 22.50 | 5.6 |
| 4 | TE22 | Cole Kmet | at NYG | 39.5 | 3.0 | 18.25 | 2.0 |
| 4 | TE23 | Hunter Henry | at GB | 40.0 | 9.5 | 15.25 | 1.9 |
| 4 | TE24 | Albert Okwuegbunam | at LV | 45.5 | 2.5 | 21.50 | 3.5 |
| 4 | TE25 | Juwan Johnson | vs MIN | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 4.8 |
| 4 | TE26 | Austin Hooper | at IND | 43.0 | 3.5 | 19.75 | 2.8 |
| 5 | TE27 | Isaiah Likely | vs BUF | 51.0 | 3.0 | 24.00 | 3.4 |
| 4 | TE28 | Cameron Brate | vs KC | 45.5 | -1.0 | 23.25 | 4.6 |
| 5 | TE29 | Noah Fant | at DET | 48.0 | 3.5 | 22.25 | 4.8 |
| 5 | TE30 | Will Dissly | at DET | 48.0 | 3.5 | 22.25 | 9.2 |
| 5 | TE31 | Jonnu Smith | at GB | 40.0 | 9.5 | 15.25 | 4.3 |
| 5 | TE32 | Harrison Bryant | at ATL | 47.0 | -1.0 | 24.00 | 5.7 |
| 5 | TE33 | Mo Alie-Cox | vs TEN | 43.0 | -3.5 | 23.25 | 2.8 |
| 5 | TE34 | Taysom Hill | vs MIN | 41.5 | 3.5 | 19.00 | 8.4 |
| 5 | TE35 | Daniel Bellinger | vs CHI | 39.5 | -3.0 | 21.25 | 8.3 |
Tier 3 – David Njoku
Njoku was likely on the bench or waiver wire in most fantasy leagues last week when he erupted for 23.9 points in Week 3. However, it could be more than just a blip on the radar.
Njoku’s underlying route participation is at a career-high level over the last two games (82%). In 2018, the former first-round pick finished as the TE9 with a 78% route participation.
So much of TE production traces back to route participation over the years. When TEs hit or eclipse 80%, they are a top-12 option 88% of the time since 2011. However, Njoku is a plus-athlete, and the Browns prioritized keeping him with a new contract. It can take TEs time to mature, and Njoku carries top-six upside the rest of the way.
That all starts this weekend against the Falcons, where things line up perfectly:
- Utilization: 80%-plus route participation
- Game environment: top-six implied points
- Matchup: fourth-most receiving yards allowed in regulation (866) and seven TDs
Njoku is an absolute SMASH play in Week 4 versus Atlanta.
Tier 2 – T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson has started the year quietly with Amon-Ra St. Brown bogarting a third of the Lions' passing targets. However, with the Sun God and D’Andre Swift out in Week 4, Hockenson could shine. His 76% route participation and 20% targets per route run are both TE1-worthy.
Hockenson is a mid-range TE1 with upside in Week 4 against a poor Seattle defensive unit.
Key
- Total = Game total per BetMGM
- Implied points = Team expected points based on game total and spread
- Route participation = routes divided by team pass plays per PFF
- LDD = long down and distance – third and fourth down with three or more yards to go per PFF
- SDD = short down and distance – second, third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go per PFF
- TPRR = targets per route run
- YPRR = yards per route run
- Explosive rush rate = percentage of runs that go for 10-plus yards per PFF
- Explosive target rate = percentage of targets that go for 15-plus yards per PFF
- Regulation = excludes overtime
- Injuries: Q = Questionable; D = Doubtful (typically removed from ranks on Saturday); GTD = game-time decision
