Fantasy

Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers. Week 7

by Dwain McFarland

2 years ago

It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 7 of the fantasy football season.

Below you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, betting totals, and implied points for every game on the slate.

Find all of our positional rankings here.

Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers – Week 7

Last updated: 11pm, Wednesday, October 19th. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!

Quarterback

Tier	Rank	Player	Opp	Total	Spread	Implied Points	PPG
1	QB1	Lamar Jackson	vs CLE	45.5	-6.5	26.00	25.4
1	QB2	Patrick Mahomes II	at SF	48.5	-1.5	25.00	24.5
2	QB3	Joe Burrow	vs ATL	47.5	-6.5	27.00	22.1
2	QB4	Justin Herbert	vs SEA	50.5	-5.5	28.00	17.7
2	QB5	Kyler Murray	vs NO	44.5	-1.5	23.00	19.7
3	QB6	Tom Brady	at CAR	39.5	-13.0	26.25	15.7
3	QB7	Dak Prescott	vs DET	49.0	-6.5	27.75	5.5
3	QB8	Geno Smith	at LAC	50.5	5.5	22.50	18.8
3	QB9	Derek Carr	vs HOU	45.5	-7.0	26.25	17.2
4	QB10	Tua Tagovailoa	vs PIT	44.5	-7.5	26.00	17.6
4	QB11	Jared Goff	at DAL	49.0	6.5	21.25	19.7
4	QB12	Jimmy Garoppolo	vs KC	48.5	1.5	23.50	15.4
4	QB13	Trevor Lawrence	vs NYG	43.0	-3.0	23.00	17.0
4	QB14	Aaron Rodgers	at WAS	41.5	-4.5	23.00	14.0
4	QB15	Marcus Mariota	at CIN	47.5	6.5	20.50	16.5
5	QB16	Matt Ryan	at TEN	42.0	2.5	19.75	15.1
5	QB17	Russell Wilson	vs NYJ	38.0	-1.0	19.50	15.1
5	QB18	Daniel Jones	at JAC	43.0	3.0	20.00	15.4
5	QB19	Jacoby Brissett	at BAL	45.5	6.5	19.50	14.6
5	QB20	Ryan Tannehill	vs IND	42.0	-2.5	22.25	13.6
5	QB21	Justin Fields	at NE	39.5	8.0	15.75	13.0
5	QB22	Zach Wilson	at DEN	38.0	1.0	18.50	13.0
5	QB23	Bailey Zappe	vs CHI	39.5	-8.0	23.75	11.5
5	QB24	Davis Mills	at LV	45.5	7.0	19.25	11.2
6	QB25	Taylor Heinicke	vs GB	41.5	4.5	18.50	0.0
6	QB26	Kenny Pickett	at MIA	44.5	7.5	18.50	12.2
6	QB27	Andy Dalton	at ARI	44.5	1.5	21.50	11.7
6	QB28	PJ Walker	vs TB	39.5	13.0	13.25	2.4

Tier 2 – Dak Prescott

Prescott will return to action against a Lions' defense with the second-worst PFF coverage grade in the NFL (44.5). Opposing QBs are averaging 271 yards and 1.6 passing TDs per game in non-overtime play against the Lions.

The Cowboys leaned into the run without Prescott – they run the eighth-most in neutral game scripts (44%). Dallas could continue to favor a balanced approach this weekend because Detroit allows the most non-overtime rushing yards per game on the ground (168). However, the Lions could push Dallas to continue scoring – they convert the third-most drives into TDs in the NFL (31%).

The matchup offers the second-highest implied point total on the slate, with Dallas favored by seven points at home. Despite running the ball slightly above expectation, the Cowboys still operate with pace. They rank eighth in average play clock remaining in neutral situations. The Lions rank second in plays per minute.

This game has an opportunity to provide a ton of offense with Michael Gallup healthy for Dallas and Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift looking healthy for the Lions.

Prescott is a mid-range QB1 this weekend, and this game provides a lot of stack options for DFS contests.

Additional QB Notes & Movers:

Tier 4 – Tua Tagovailoa will return to action this weekend. The Dolphins are seven-point favorites and supply a top-six implied point total. They face the Steelers, who allow the fifth-most non-overtime yards via the passing game. Tagovailoa is a low-end QB1 option if you are without Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Kirk Cousins.
Tier 4 – Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers will need to score points in a home game against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes this weekend. The 49ers could be without several key defensive starters – which led to a trailing game script last weekend against Atlanta. Jimmy G has the weapons to put up fantasy points, and the Chiefs allow the second most non-overtime passing points per game (23.8). Garoppolo is a low-end QB1.
Tier 5 – Matt Ryan doesn’t draw a great game environment with a 43.5 total against the Titans. However, Tennessee has been scorched by opposing passing for 24.3 fantasy points per game – the most in the NFL. Ryan is a mid-range QB2 with some upside if the game pushes beyond the current expectations of Vegas.

Running back

Tier	Rank	Player	Opp	Total	Spread	Implied Points	PPG
1	RB1	Austin Ekeler	vs SEA	50.5	-5.5	28.00	23.0
1	RB2	Saquon Barkley	at JAC	43.0	3.0	20.00	20.7
2	RB3	Leonard Fournette	at CAR	39.5	-13.0	26.25	18.9
2	RB4	Nick Chubb	at BAL	45.5	6.5	19.50	19.8
2	RB5	Alvin Kamara	at ARI	44.5	1.5	21.50	14.2
2	RB6	Jonathan Taylor	at TEN	42.0	2.5	19.75	12.6
2	RB7	Derrick Henry	vs IND	42.0	-2.5	22.25	18.6
2	RB8	Josh Jacobs	vs HOU	45.5	-7.0	26.25	19.4
2	RB9	D'Andre Swift	at DAL	49.0	6.5	21.25	16.9
2	RB10	Joe Mixon	vs ATL	47.5	-6.5	27.00	14.3
3	RB11	Breece Hall	at DEN	38.0	1.0	18.50	17.0
3	RB12	Rhamondre Stevenson	vs CHI	39.5	-8.0	23.75	14.7
3	RB13	Kenneth Walker III	at LAC	50.5	5.5	22.50	9.4
3	RB14	Aaron Jones	at WAS	41.5	-4.5	23.00	13.4
3	RB15	Dameon Pierce	at LV	45.5	7.0	19.25	15.6
3	RB16	David Montgomery	at NE	39.5	8.0	15.75	10.4
3	RB17	Eno Benjamin	vs NO	44.5	-1.5	23.00	8.5
4	RB18	Ezekiel Elliott	vs DET	49.0	-6.5	27.75	10.0
4	RB19	Najee Harris	at MIA	44.5	7.5	18.50	10.8
4	RB20	Damien Harris	vs CHI	39.5	-8.0	23.75	10.9
4	RB21	Christian McCaffrey	vs TB	39.5	13.0	13.25	19.7
4	RB22	Travis Etienne Jr.	vs NYG	43.0	-3.0	23.00	9.6
4	RB23	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	at SF	48.5	-1.5	25.00	14.2
4	RB24	Raheem Mostert	vs PIT	44.5	-7.5	26.00	8.6
4	RB25	Kareem Hunt	at BAL	45.5	6.5	19.50	11.0
4	RB26	AJ Dillon	at WAS	41.5	-4.5	23.00	9.3
4	RB27	Tony Pollard	vs DET	49.0	-6.5	27.75	9.7
4	RB28	James Robinson	vs NYG	43.0	-3.0	23.00	11.9
4	RB29	Melvin Gordon III	vs NYJ	38.0	-1.0	19.50	7.2
4	RB30	Brian Robinson Jr.	vs GB	41.5	4.5	18.50	7.1
5	RB31	Jeff Wilson Jr.	vs KC	48.5	1.5	23.50	10.5
5	RB32	Kenyan Drake	vs CLE	45.5	-6.5	26.00	7.5
5	RB33	Michael Carter	at DEN	38.0	1.0	18.50	10.1
5	RB34	Jamaal Williams	at DAL	49.0	6.5	21.25	15.4
5	RB35	Khalil Herbert	at NE	39.5	8.0	15.75	11.2
6	RB36	Tyler Allgeier	at CIN	47.5	6.5	20.50	5.6
6	RB37	Justice Hill	vs CLE	45.5	-6.5	26.00	4.6
6	RB38	Rachaad White	at CAR	39.5	-13.0	26.25	5.2
6	RB39	J.D. McKissic	vs GB	41.5	4.5	18.50	8.4
6	RB40	Antonio Gibson	vs GB	41.5	4.5	18.50	11.3
6	RB41	Jerick McKinnon	at SF	48.5	-1.5	25.00	6.0
6	RB42	Nyheim Hines	at TEN	42.0	2.5	19.75	6.2
6	RB43	Latavius Murray	vs NYJ	38.0	-1.0	19.50	7.0
6	RB44	Caleb Huntley	at CIN	47.5	6.5	20.50	5.3
6	RB45	Sony Michel	vs SEA	50.5	-5.5	28.00	3.5
6	RB46	Chase Edmonds	vs PIT	44.5	-7.5	26.00	7.8
6	RB47	Mike Boone	vs NYJ	38.0	-1.0	19.50	3.6
6	RB48	Dontrell Hilliard	vs IND	42.0	-2.5	22.25	11.4
6	RB49	Rex Burkhead	at LV	45.5	7.0	19.25	8.3
6	RB50	Mark Ingram II	at ARI	44.5	1.5	21.50	5.5
7	RB51	Samaje Perine	vs ATL	47.5	-6.5	27.00	6.0
7	RB52	Jaylen Warren	at MIA	44.5	7.5	18.50	3.5
7	RB53	DeeJay Dallas	at LAC	50.5	5.5	22.50	1.2
7	RB54	Isiah Pacheco	at SF	48.5	-1.5	25.00	4.0
7	RB55	Matt Breida	at JAC	43.0	3.0	20.00	2.0
7	RB56	Kyle Juszczyk	vs KC	48.5	1.5	23.50	4.5
7	RB57	Avery Williams	at CIN	47.5	6.5	20.50	2.8
7	RB58	Keaontay Ingram	vs NO	44.5	-1.5	23.00	0.7
7	RB59	Brandon Bolden	vs HOU	45.5	-7.0	26.25	5.6
7	RB60	Mike Davis	vs CLE	45.5	-6.5	26.00	0.6
7	RB61	Tevin Coleman	vs KC	48.5	1.5	23.50	11.0
7	RB62	D'Onta Foreman	vs TB	39.5	13.0	13.25	0.7
7	RB63	D'Ernest Johnson	at BAL	45.5	6.5	19.50	1.0
7	RB64	Pierre Strong Jr.	vs CHI	39.5	-8.0	23.75	0.3
7	RB65	Kevin Harris	vs CHI	39.5	-8.0	23.75	0.5
7	RB66	Zamir White	vs HOU	45.5	-7.0	26.25	0.6
7	RB67	JaMycal Hasty	vs NYG	43.0	-3.0	23.00	4.3
7	RB68	Isaiah Spiller	vs SEA	50.5	-5.5	28.00	0.0
7	RB69	Chuba Hubbard	vs TB	39.5	13.0	13.25	0.5

Tier 2 – Derrick Henry

Henry has eclipsed 24 fantasy points in his last three games. The Titans are finding ways to keep him at or above the 25-touch total by getting him more involved in the passing attack. The Big Dog has 12 targets for 10 receptions and 121 yards over a three-game stretch.

The Titans are 2.5-point favorites at home against a Colts team that allows 34.6 attempts per game to opponents in non-overtime play. Opposing RBs are averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game in rushing alone (eighth-most).

Look for Henry to keep his mojo going in a friendly game environment and matchup situation. He is a top-10 option with the No. 1 overall upside this weekend.

Tier 2 – Josh Jacobs

Jacobs has taken over the Raiders backfield over the last two games, where he posted two 30-plus fantasy point finishes. The veteran back has been in charge of rushing attempts all season, but over the last two weeks, he has picked up long-down-distance snaps and two-minute offense opportunities.

Week	Snaps	Rush Att	Routes	Targets	TPRR	SDD Snaps	i5 Att	LDD Snaps	2MIN Snaps	PPR
1	60%	77%	40%	3%	6%	50%	100%	0%	0%	8.3
2	72%	83%	41%	3%	6%	100%	100%	18%	44%	9.1
3	64%	76%	57%	13%	19%	33%	0%	7%	40%	14.7
4	89%	80%	63%	20%	25%	88%	100%	40%	100%	34.4
5	81%	78%	46%	19%	31%	90%	50%	46%	67%	30.3
YTD	74%	79%	49%	11%	18%	80%	80%	22%	60%	19.4

He has a 17% target share over the last three games and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry on the season. Jacobs ranks in the top five in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.31) and third in average yards after contact (4.19). The former Alabama first-rounder is feeling it in 2022, and you love to see it.

The Raiders are seven-point favorites at home against a Texans unit that grades out second-worst against the run, per PFF. Opposing RBs average 21 points per game on the ground, which is the fifth-most.

Jacobs is in the SMASH of all SMASH spots with utilization, efficiency, game environment, and matchup all aligning. I currently have him three spots ahead of industry consensus, but you could make an argument for him at No. 1 overall this weekend.

Tier 3 – Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson operated as an every-down back over the last two contests due to an injury to Damien Harris. He is averaging 22.3 fantasy points during that span, and the utilization is ELITE.

Week	Snaps	Rush Att	Routes	Targets	TPRR	SDD Snaps	i5 Att	LDD Snaps	2MIN Snaps	PPR
1	25%	38%	14%	7%	40%	33%	0%	0%	0%	4.7
2	62%	32%	58%	6%	9%	60%	0%	57%	100%	6.1
3	62%	50%	62%	16%	20%	60%	50%	60%	100%	20.1
4	55%	42%	52%	25%	38%	67%	0%	100%	0%	12.9
5	90%	74%	62%	10%	14%	67%	0%	100%	100%	19.5
6	86%	63%	60%	16%	25%	100%	100%	92%	0%	25.1
YTD	64%	51%	51%	13%	21%	69%	67%	66%	100%	14.7

On Monday Night Football, Stevenson will have company with Harris removed from the injury report. The second-year back handled 41% of rushing attempts over the first four weeks with Harris – much less than his 74% and 63% marks over the last two games. Stevenson will likely keep most passing-down work, keeping his utilization profile in the high-end RB2 range.

The Patriots run the ball more than the NFL average in trailing, close, and leading game scripts and draw an amazing matchup on Monday Night Football against the Bears as eight-point favorites. Opponents are averaging an eye-popping 40.4 rushing attempts per game, excluding overtime – that is by far the most in the NFL.

Stevenson downgrades from a high-end RB1 option but remains inside the top 12 for Week 7.

Additional RB Notes & Movers:

Tier 3 – Eno Benjamin was removed from the injury report on Wednesday after a full practice. He should start on Thursday night. James Conner is technically a game-time decision, but he isn’t likely to play after failing to practice all week. As long as Conner is out, we can expect another heavy workload for Benjamin. He didn’t come through in Week 6, but the utilization was there with an 87% snap share, 58% rush share, and 83% route participation. Benjamin is a mid-range RB2 if Conner is out.
Tier 4 – Ezekiel Elliott played his best game in Week 6 against the Eagles. He registered an 82.8 PFF rush grade, forced four missed tackles, and delivered three 10-plus-yard carries. The Cowboys have a juicy matchup against a Lions team giving up 28 fantasy points per game via the run. Elliott climbs out of RB3 purgatory with the Cowboys as seven-point favorites and the No. 2 implied points. Zeke is a mid-range RB2.
Tier 4 – Damien Harris practiced in full on Friday and was removed from the injury report. The fourth-year RB handled 49% of the Patriots' rushing attempts over the first four games before injuring his hamstring in Week 5. We should anticipate a similar role on Monday, with the Patriots favored by eight points against a Bears defense that allows the most non-overtime rushing attempts per game (40.4). Harris should be good for 14 to 16 attempts and 60 to 70 yards with a shot at a TD. Harris is a low-end RB2.
Tier 4 – Christian McCaffrey is trending toward playing on Sunday, but his utilization could be dramatically restricted due to a limited understanding of the playbook. Head coach Kyle Shanahan eluded to the possibility of some designed red zone looks, which would give CMC a chance to come through for fantasy managers with a TD. McCaffrey falls into low-end RB2 territory.
Tier 4 – Kareem Hunt could not post big fantasy numbers in Week 6, but his utilization was there in a trailing script. The Browns are 6.5-point dogs this weekend against the Ravens, and Hunt is due for a big game. Hunt remains an RB3 based on utilization and talent profile.
Tier 4 – Melvin Gordon III was named the starter by Nathaniel Hacket on Wednesday after a heart-to-heart conversation. Gordon is a better back than Latavius Murray and should handle most of the early-down work. However, this is still a dreaded three-way backfield in an offense that can’t score points. That keeps Gordon in the high-end RB3 range for Week 6.
Tier 5 – Jeff Wilson Jr. is in a fragile position with the arrival of Christian McCaffrey. He should still lead the team in carries this weekend, but he was already a downgrade due to the potential for a trailing game script against the Chiefs. McCaffrey could steal looks inside the 20-yard line, which could turn Wilson into a 10-12 touch player without any receptions or chances to score. Wilson is a mid-range RB3 in Week 7.
Tier 5 – Khalil Herbert has outdueled David Montgomery in every rushing-efficiency metric, and head coach Matt Eberflus said the team would use a hot-hand approach moving forward. That change means we could see the occasional blowup game from Herbert. Herbert is a boom-bust RB3 in Week 7 on Monday Night against the Patriots.

Wide Receiver

Tier	Rank	Player	Opp	Total	Spread	Implied Points	PPG
1	WR1	Tyreek Hill	vs PIT	44.5	-7.5	26.00	22.3
1	WR2	Ja'Marr Chase	vs ATL	47.5	-6.5	27.00	18.1
1	WR3	Davante Adams	vs HOU	45.5	-7.0	26.25	20.1
2	WR4	Deebo Samuel	vs KC	48.5	1.5	23.50	15.2
2	WR5	Amon-Ra St. Brown	at DAL	49.0	6.5	21.25	19.7
2	WR6	CeeDee Lamb	vs DET	49.0	-6.5	27.75	14.6
2	WR7	DK Metcalf	at LAC	50.5	5.5	22.50	13.1
2	WR8	Michael Pittman Jr.	at TEN	42.0	2.5	19.75	17.1
2	WR9	Mike Evans	at CAR	39.5	-13.0	26.25	15.6
2	WR10	Jaylen Waddle	vs PIT	44.5	-7.5	26.00	16.8
3	WR11	Chris Godwin	at CAR	39.5	-13.0	26.25	11.8
3	WR12	Mike Williams	vs SEA	50.5	-5.5	28.00	13.8
3	WR13	Amari Cooper	at BAL	45.5	6.5	19.50	15.0
3	WR14	Tee Higgins	vs ATL	47.5	-6.5	27.00	14.8
3	WR15	Christian Kirk	vs NYG	43.0	-3.0	23.00	14.0
3	WR16	Chris Olave	at ARI	44.5	1.5	21.50	15.2
3	WR17	Tyler Lockett	at LAC	50.5	5.5	22.50	14.4
3	WR18	Courtland Sutton	vs NYJ	38.0	-1.0	19.50	13.4
3	WR19	Diontae Johnson	at MIA	44.5	7.5	18.50	11.1
3	WR20	DeAndre Hopkins	vs NO	44.5	-1.5	23.00	0.0
3	WR21	Brandon Aiyuk	vs KC	48.5	1.5	23.50	12.6
4	WR22	Allen Lazard	at WAS	41.5	-4.5	23.00	14.5
4	WR23	Jakobi Meyers	vs CHI	39.5	-8.0	23.75	15.7
4	WR24	Drake London	at CIN	47.5	6.5	20.50	11.6
4	WR25	Keenan Allen	vs SEA	50.5	-5.5	28.00	10.6
4	WR26	JuJu Smith-Schuster	at SF	48.5	-1.5	25.00	11.3
4	WR27	Brandin Cooks	at LV	45.5	7.0	19.25	10.7
4	WR28	Terry McLaurin	vs GB	41.5	4.5	18.50	11.1
4	WR29	Garrett Wilson	at DEN	38.0	1.0	18.50	10.8
4	WR30	Romeo Doubs	at WAS	41.5	-4.5	23.00	10.1
4	WR31	Rashod Bateman	vs CLE	45.5	-6.5	26.00	11.3
4	WR32	Rondale Moore	vs NO	44.5	-1.5	23.00	9.2
4	WR33	Curtis Samuel	vs GB	41.5	4.5	18.50	13.0
4	WR34	Jerry Jeudy	vs NYJ	38.0	-1.0	19.50	9.7
4	WR35	Michael Gallup	vs DET	49.0	-6.5	27.75	7.5
5	WR36	DJ Moore	vs TB	39.5	13.0	13.25	8.4
5	WR37	Hunter Renfrow	vs HOU	45.5	-7.0	26.25	7.5
5	WR38	Zay Jones	vs NYG	43.0	-3.0	23.00	11.1
5	WR39	George Pickens	at MIA	44.5	7.5	18.50	8.0
5	WR40	Alec Pierce	at TEN	42.0	2.5	19.75	10.2
5	WR41	Corey Davis	at DEN	38.0	1.0	18.50	11.0
5	WR42	Darnell Mooney	at NE	39.5	8.0	15.75	6.9
5	WR43	Tyler Boyd	vs ATL	47.5	-6.5	27.00	11.0
5	WR44	Chase Claypool	at MIA	44.5	7.5	18.50	9.5
5	WR45	Robert Woods	vs IND	42.0	-2.5	22.25	8.7
5	WR46	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	at SF	48.5	-1.5	25.00	7.4
5	WR47	Wan'Dale Robinson	at JAC	43.0	3.0	20.00	7.1
5	WR48	Russell Gage	at CAR	39.5	-13.0	26.25	8.4
5	WR49	Tyquan Thornton	vs CHI	39.5	-8.0	23.75	12.0
5	WR50	Donovan Peoples-Jones	at BAL	45.5	6.5	19.50	7.8
5	WR51	Nico Collins	at LV	45.5	7.0	19.25	8.4
5	WR52	Braxton Berrios	at DEN	38.0	1.0	18.50	5.7
5	WR53	DeVante Parker	vs CHI	39.5	-8.0	23.75	7.2
5	WR54	Marvin Jones Jr.	vs NYG	43.0	-3.0	23.00	9.0
5	WR55	Darius Slayton	at JAC	43.0	3.0	20.00	6.3
5	WR56	Jahan Dotson	vs GB	41.5	4.5	18.50	13.1
6	WR57	Mecole Hardman	at SF	48.5	-1.5	25.00	7.7
6	WR58	Josh Reynolds	at DAL	49.0	6.5	21.25	13.7
6	WR59	Parris Campbell	at TEN	42.0	2.5	19.75	6.8
6	WR60	DeAndre Carter	vs SEA	50.5	-5.5	28.00	6.5
6	WR61	Marquez Callaway	at ARI	44.5	1.5	21.50	6.2
6	WR62	Tre'Quan Smith	at ARI	44.5	1.5	21.50	8.2
6	WR63	Noah Brown	vs DET	49.0	-6.5	27.75	9.2
6	WR64	Devin Duvernay	vs CLE	45.5	-6.5	26.00	11.4
6	WR65	Olamide Zaccheaus	at CIN	47.5	6.5	20.50	8.9
6	WR66	Robbie Anderson	vs NO	44.5	-1.5	23.00	7.5
6	WR67	Mack Hollins	vs HOU	45.5	-7.0	26.25	10.1
6	WR68	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	vs IND	42.0	-2.5	22.25	5.2
7	WR69	K.J. Hamler	vs NYJ	38.0	-1.0	19.50	3.0
7	WR70	Jauan Jennings	vs KC	48.5	1.5	23.50	4.6
7	WR71	Demarcus Robinson	vs CLE	45.5	-6.5	26.00	3.8
7	WR72	A.J. Green	vs NO	44.5	-1.5	23.00	3.5
7	WR73	Skyy Moore	at SF	48.5	-1.5	25.00	2.3
7	WR74	Shi Smith	vs TB	39.5	13.0	13.25	3.1
7	WR75	Dante Pettis	at NE	39.5	8.0	15.75	5.1
7	WR76	Marquise Goodwin	at LAC	50.5	5.5	22.50	2.8
7	WR77	Terrace Marshall Jr.	vs TB	39.5	13.0	13.25	3.5
7	WR78	Equanimeous St. Brown	at NE	39.5	8.0	15.75	4.6
7	WR79	Richie James Jr.	at JAC	43.0	3.0	20.00	6.1
7	WR80	David Bell	at BAL	45.5	6.5	19.50	2.5
7	WR81	Marcus Johnson	at JAC	43.0	3.0	20.00	5.5
7	WR82	Trent Sherfield	vs PIT	44.5	-7.5	26.00	3.1
7	WR83	David Sills V	at JAC	43.0	3.0	20.00	3.4
7	WR84	Kyle Philips	vs IND	42.0	-2.5	22.25	3.0
7	WR85	Chris Moore	at LV	45.5	7.0	19.25	4.7
7	WR86	Laviska Shenault Jr.	vs TB	39.5	13.0	13.25	8.5
7	WR87	Bryan Edwards	at CIN	47.5	6.5	20.50	1.1
7	WR88	KhaDarel Hodge	at CIN	47.5	6.5	20.50	4.6
7	WR89	Scotty Miller	at CAR	39.5	-13.0	26.25	4.0
7	WR90	Dee Eskridge	at LAC	50.5	5.5	22.50	2.4
7	WR91	Velus Jones Jr.	at NE	39.5	8.0	15.75	2.2

Tier 1 – Tyreek Hill

Hill has gathered in 12 or more targets in four of six games and is on pace for 184 – a pace that has him set to smash his career-high of 155.

He is the only WR in the NFL with a minimum of 100 routes run with a plus-3.00 YPRR against man and zone looks (4.37 and 3.71). It doesn’t matter what type of defensive looks opponents try or who is throwing him the ball; the 28-year-old is unstoppable in an offense designed to create yards after the catch opportunities.

He is averaging 22.3 fantasy points per game and draws a matchup against the Steelers, who are allowing the sixth-most in regulation play (60.3). The Dolphins carry the sixth-highest implied point total on the slate.

Say hello to the WR1 overall in the Week 7 rankings.

Tier 1 – Deebo Samuel

The 49ers are dealing with multiple injuries on defense and draw a tough matchup against the Chiefs that should push them out of their run-centric game plan.

In Week 6, that resulted in a season-high 10 targets for Samuel. His target shares have been elite all season; the stud WR just needs the game scripts to open up more passing plays.

Week	Routes	TPRR	Targets	ADOT	Air Yards	EZ Tgts	3rd/4th Down Targets	PA Targets	PPR
1	94%	21%	27%	6.6	22%	0%	18%	14%	14.6
2	90%	23%	24%	-0.2	-1%	0%	14%	20%	14.7
3	89%	28%	29%	7.0	23%	0%	29%	25%	12.9
4	93%	27%	29%	1.9	9%	0%	30%	14%	23.7
5	89%	28%	30%	10.4	36%	100%	20%	63%	11.2
6	84%	29%	25%	7.5	25%	0%	20%	10%	16.0
YTD	89%	26%	27%	6.0	21%	40%	21%	24%	15.5

The Chiefs allow 71 points per game to opposing pass catchers in non-overtime play. That is the most in the NFL, averaging 336 yards and three TDs per game.

Of course, Samuel should also be good for two to three rushing attempts, providing the potential for a 12- to 15-touch game for one of the NFL’s superstars.

Samuel is a top-five option this weekend and is a SMASH play.

Tier 2 – D.K. Metcalf

Metcalf had a dud game against the Cardinals in Week 6, with him and Geno Smith only connecting on two of his seven targets. However, this week he gets another nice matchup against a Chargers secondary that benched J.C. Jackson last weekend.

The Chargers offer up the ninth-most points to pass catchers in non-overtime play with 58 points per game. They play man coverage the sixth-most in the NFL (32.4%), where Metcalf excels. The fourth-year receiver has a long-standing trend of getting a target bump against man coverage.

	2019	2020	2021	2022
Target Share vs. Man	25%	29%	45%	43%
Target Share vs. Zone	16%	24%	23%	23%

The Chargers have used man coverage 40% or more twice this season. If that plays out this weekend, it will likely mean surplus opportunities for Metcalf. Tyler Lockett is questionable. If he can’t go or isn’t 100%, that could create additional targets.

No other game on the slate offers a higher game total, and the Seahawks are seven-point dogs. Seattle passes the ball slightly above expectation (5%) in trailing scripts and snaps the ball with more time on the play clock than any other team in neutral scripts. The ingredients are there for a lot of passing volume.

I have Metcalf ranked three spots ahead of expert consensus – he is a SMASH play.

Tier 3 – CeeDee Lamb

Lamb hasn’t had a breakout game yet, but his underlying utilization tells the story of a player who has made huge strides and is due for a MONSTER outing. Lamb ranks No. 1 in the NFL in target share (33%) but only averages 14.6 per game so far.

Week	Routes	TPRR	Targets	ADOT	Air Yards	EZ Tgts	3rd/4th Down Targets	PA Targets	PPR
1	98%	22%	26%	10.8	29%	0%	25%	30%	4.9
2	97%	30%	34%	9.8	53%	0%	18%	30%	15.1
3	100%	39%	43%	11.4	53%	50%	38%	42%	22.7
4	100%	24%	32%	14.4	43%	0%	0%	57%	21.7
5	100%	37%	47%	7.6	48%	0%	44%	29%	10.3
6	95%	24%	27%	7.7	23%	0%	14%	33%	12.7
YTD	98%	28%	33%	10.3	39%	13%	24%	36%	14.6

The Cowboys move Lamb all over the field, with 58% of his routes coming from the slot, and they also use play action to get him into space, with 36% of targets coming off of play action.

A play-action target is worth almost 20% more than a non-play-action target.

The Lions PFF coverage grade is the second-worst (44.5), and they allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to pass catchers in regulation play (58.7). Detroit uses man coverage the most in the NFL (46.5%), and Lamb has played extremely well against man this season, earning a 40% target share.

Dallas has the second-highest implied points on the slate, and they face an opponent that converts the third-most drives into TDs. With Dak Prescott back, the Cowboys can go pass-heavy any time they need.

The utilization, matchup, and game environment align for Lamb in Week 7, making him a SMASH play.

Tier 2 – Michael Pittman Jr.

Pittman draws the No. 2 matchup for pass catchers against the Titans, who allow 305 yards and 2.4 TDs per game in non-overtime play. Only the Lions and Raiders offer a higher EPA per play against the pass.

The third-year WR has a 24% target share in games played and has two games with 13-plus targets this season. The Colts utilize play-action on 30% of his targets – a 5% advantage over the average NFL receiver since 2019.

Pittman is a low-end WR1 this weekend.

Tier 4 – Garrett Wilson

With Elijah Moore out this weekend, Wilson should see Wilson approach his season-high in route participation (86%) against the Broncos. He currently leads the team in target share (22%) by seven percentage points. His targets per route (TPRR) are even stronger at 25%.

Denver has the No. 1 PFF coverage grade (90.6), so the matchup won’t be easy. Wilson will likely have to take more reps outside, with Braxton Berrios taking over the slot duties. However, the Broncos play the third-most zone coverage in the NFL, so the Jets can keep their first-rounder away from Patrick Surtain II if they choose.

The path to victory for the Jets might not be a heavy passing attack against a lackluster Denver offense. Despite the matchup and game environment challenges (38-point game total), the allure of expanded route participation is enough to move the rookie target earner up the ranks.

Wilson is a mid-range WR3 with upside in Week 7.

Additional WR Notes & Movers:

Tier 3 – Chris Olave boasts a 27% target rate (TPRR) and will return to the field on Thursday night against the Cardinals. The Saints won’t have Michael Thomas or Jarvis Landry, creating a funnel opportunity for a WR that has shown he is ready to dominate targets. I have Olave ranked 10 spots ahead of expert consensus rankings – he is a mid-range WR2 this week.
Tier 3 – Diontae Johnson had a 31% target share against man coverage in 2021. He has followed that up with 30% in 2022. The Steelers play the Dolphins this weekend – the third-most heavy man coverage unit (45.4%). Johnson has been quiet lately, but he is still the Steelers' receiving corps leader, and this could be his week. Johnson is a low-end WR2.
Tier 3 – Brandon Aiyuk blew up in Week 6 for a top-5 WR finish thanks to a trailing game script that forced the 49ers to throw. This game could be a deja vu situation against the Chiefs, who will challenge San Francisco to score. The Chiefs also provide the No. 1 fantasy point matchup for pass catchers, allowing 71 points per game in non-overtime. Aiyuk ranks four spots ahead of consensus as a low-end WR2.
Tier 4 – Keenan Allen (hamstring) is a game-time decision. The matchup against Seattle offers a great game environment with the highest implied point total. The Chargers could play it cautiously with Allen and wait to bring him back after the bye in Week 8. If he plays, he is a WR3 if he suits up (late game).
Tier 4 – Michael Gallup played 84% of snaps over the last three games with a 19% target rate (TPRR). The matchup against the Lions is a juicy one for many of the reasons mentioned above for CeeDee Lamb. Gallup moves into the WR3 conversation for Week 7.

Tight end

Tier	Rank	Player	Opp	Total	Spread	Implied Points	PPG
1	TE1	Travis Kelce	at SF	48.5	-1.5	25.00	21.8
1	TE2	Mark Andrews	vs CLE	45.5	-6.5	26.00	19.1
2	TE3	George Kittle	vs KC	48.5	1.5	23.50	8.8
2	TE4	Zach Ertz	vs NO	44.5	-1.5	23.00	13.2
2	TE5	David Njoku	at BAL	45.5	6.5	19.50	10.9
3	TE6	T.J. Hockenson	at DAL	49.0	6.5	21.25	13.1
3	TE7	Kyle Pitts	at CIN	47.5	6.5	20.50	7.2
3	TE8	Gerald Everett	vs SEA	50.5	-5.5	28.00	9.7
4	TE9	Robert Tonyan	at WAS	41.5	-4.5	23.00	9.2
4	TE10	Hayden Hurst	vs ATL	47.5	-6.5	27.00	8.8
4	TE11	Taysom Hill	at ARI	44.5	1.5	21.50	12.7
4	TE12	Evan Engram	vs NYG	43.0	-3.0	23.00	7.8
4	TE13	Pat Freiermuth	at MIA	44.5	7.5	18.50	9.9
4	TE14	Daniel Bellinger	at JAC	43.0	3.0	20.00	9.4
4	TE15	Hunter Henry	vs CHI	39.5	-8.0	23.75	5.8
5	TE16	Dalton Schultz	vs DET	49.0	-6.5	27.75	3.8
5	TE17	Mike Gesicki	vs PIT	44.5	-7.5	26.00	8.3
5	TE18	Noah Fant	at LAC	50.5	5.5	22.50	6.7
5	TE19	Greg Dulcich	vs NYJ	38.0	-1.0	19.50	12.4
5	TE20	Juwan Johnson	at ARI	44.5	1.5	21.50	5.2
5	TE21	Cade Otton	at CAR	39.5	-13.0	26.25	4.4
5	TE22	Foster Moreau	vs HOU	45.5	-7.0	26.25	6.7
5	TE23	Cole Kmet	at NE	39.5	8.0	15.75	3.6
6	TE24	Tyler Conklin	at DEN	38.0	1.0	18.50	8.2
6	TE25	Will Dissly	at LAC	50.5	5.5	22.50	8.0
6	TE26	Cole Turner	vs GB	41.5	4.5	18.50	2.2
6	TE27	Mo Alie-Cox	at TEN	42.0	2.5	19.75	7.3
6	TE28	Isaiah Likely	vs CLE	45.5	-6.5	26.00	3.6
6	TE29	Harrison Bryant	at BAL	45.5	6.5	19.50	4.4
6	TE30	Kylen Granson	at TEN	42.0	2.5	19.75	5.3
6	TE31	O.J. Howard	at LV	45.5	7.0	19.25	4.8
7	TE32	Austin Hooper	vs IND	42.0	-2.5	22.25	2.3
7	TE33	Brevin Jordan	at LV	45.5	7.0	19.25	1.9
7	TE34	Tommy Tremble	vs TB	39.5	13.0	13.25	2.3
7	TE35	C.J. Uzomah	at DEN	38.0	1.0	18.50	2.1
7	TE36	Jonnu Smith	vs CHI	39.5	-8.0	23.75	5.2
7	TE37	Jelani Woods	at TEN	42.0	2.5	19.75	7.6
7	TE38	Ian Thomas	vs TB	39.5	13.0	13.25	3.6

Additional TE Notes & Movers:

Tier 2 – George Kittle registered a season-high nine targets (23%) in Week 6 against the Falcons. The 49ers’ banged-up defense couldn’t hold down Atlanta’s offense, which led to a trailing script. We could see that play out again against the Chiefs this weekend, which makes all of the San Francisco pass catchers viable in Week 7. Kittle is a high-end TE1.
Tier 2 – Zach Ertz has nine or more targets in four games this season, and that trend could continue with Marquise Brown lost for an extended period. Deandre Hopkins returns this weekend, but there will be plenty to go around – Brown was bogarting 10 targets per game. Ertz is a high-end TE1.
Tier 2 – David Njoku is the No. 5 TE on the season and averages 5.6 targets per game. His 1.96 YPRR is elite by TE standards, and he gets a matchup against the Ravens, who allow the fourth-most points per game to pass catchers in non-overtime play (65.2). Njoku is a mid-range TE1.
Tier 4 – Robert Tonyan delivered a season-high route participation of 74% last weekend. The Packers were short-handed at WR, which could have played a role, but he also sports a 23% target rate (TPRR) for the season – which is TE1-worthy. Tonyan is a low-end TE1 against the Commanders.
Tier 4 – Daniel Bellinger has steadily improved his route participation over the last three games (38%, 56% and 82%). When a TE can get over 80% route participation, they typically end up inside the top 12. The rookie has had two 20% target shares in the last three weeks, and there isn’t a lot of competition for targets. Bellinger is a high-end TE2 this weekend against the Jaguars.

Dwain McFarland