Fantasy

Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers. Wild Card Round

by Dwain McFarland

1 year ago

It is time to make those tough fantasy football lineup decisions for Wild Card Weekend.

Below you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, betting totals, and implied points for every game on the slate.

Find all of our positional rankings here.

Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers – Wild Card Round

Last updated: 9:30 pm, Friday, January 13th. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!

Quarterback

Tier	Pos Rank	Player	Opp	Game Total	Spread	Team Total	PPG
1	QB1	Josh Allen	vs MIA	43.5	-13.5	28.50	24.3
1	QB2	Joe Burrow	vs BAL	40.5	-9.0	24.75	21.7
2	QB3	Kirk Cousins	vs NYG	48.0	-3.0	25.50	18.0
2	QB4	Justin Herbert	at JAC	47.5	-2.5	25.00	17.1
2	QB5	Trevor Lawrence	vs LAC	47.5	2.5	22.50	17.9
2	QB6	Daniel Jones	at MIN	48.0	3.0	22.50	18.4
2	QB7	Dak Prescott	at TB	45.5	-2.5	24.00	17.8
2	QB8	Brock Purdy	vs SEA	42.0	-9.5	25.75	12.3
2	QB9	Tom Brady	vs DAL	45.5	2.5	21.50	16.5
3	QB10	Geno Smith	at SF	42.0	9.5	16.25	18.5
3	QB11	Tyler Huntley	at CIN	40.5	9.0	15.75	10.6
3	QB12	Skylar Thompson	at BUF	43.5	13.5	15.00	2.9

Tier 2 – Kirk Cousins

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow are the clear Tier 1 QBs of the 2022 season. Justin Fields would have joined them if healthy, but after that, Cousins leads the Tier 2 options with a QB7 finish.

Over his last three full games (excludes Week 18), Cousins is on a hot streak, averaging the third-most fantasy points, and he draws one of the worst-graded PFF coverage units in the Giants (52.1). In Week 16, the Vikings dropped 299 yards and 3 passing TDs on the G-Men, and Cousins registered his highest PFF passing grade of the season (90.7).

The Vikings rank above the league average in pass rate in all game scripts.

Trailing by four-plus points: 74% (4th)
Within three points: 66% (5th)
Leading by four-plus points: 57% (5th)

With the third-highest team total in a game that might not feature much defense, Cousins is a SMASH play, ranking three spots ahead of expert consensus.

Additional QB Notes & Movers:

Tier 2 – Trevor Lawrence fell flat last weekend in a matchup against the softest secondary in the league. After averaging 297 yards and 2.8 TDs from Week 12 to Week 15, the second-year QB is at 198 and 0.33 over the last three games. Zooming out, Lawrence has thrown for one or fewer TDs in 10 of 18 contests, and the Chargers have one of the best PFF coverage grades in the league (82.4). Lawrence ranks two spots below the industry consensus.
Tier 2 – Daniel Jones averages 22.6 points per game over his last three starts, and the Vikings allow a whopping 278 yards per game in non-overtime play – the most of any defense on the slate. Jones delivered a season-high 335 yards against Minnesota in Week 16. The Giants have a modest team total, but this is the highest game total for Super Wild Card Weekend. Jones ranks two spots ahead of industry consensus as the QB6.
Tier 2 – Brock Purdy could certainly come through on efficiency against a so-so Seahawks coverage unit, but the 49ers could also opt to run the ball. Seattle gives up an eye-popping 144 yards per game on the ground in non-overtime play. Look for an efficient day for Purdy, but he will need passing TDs inside the five-yard line, where the 49ers run it the sixth-most in the NFL (64%). Purdy is a low-end QB1.

Running Back

Tier	Pos Rank	Player	Opp	Game Total	Spread	Team Total	PPG
1	RB1	Christian McCaffrey	vs SEA	42.0	-9.5	25.75	21.0
1	RB2	Austin Ekeler	at JAC	47.5	-2.5	25.00	21.9
1	RB3	Saquon Barkley	at MIN	48.0	3.0	22.50	17.8
2	RB4	Travis Etienne Jr.	vs LAC	47.5	2.5	22.50	12.1
2	RB5	Dalvin Cook	vs NYG	48.0	-3.0	25.50	14.0
2	RB6	Joe Mixon	vs BAL	40.5	-9.0	24.75	16.0
2	RB7	Tony Pollard	at TB	45.5	-2.5	24.00	15.6
3	RB8	Kenneth Walker III	at SF	42.0	9.5	16.25	13.5
3	RB9	Ezekiel Elliott	at TB	45.5	-2.5	24.00	12.4
3	RB10	Leonard Fournette	vs DAL	45.5	2.5	21.50	14.2
3	RB11	J.K. Dobbins	at CIN	40.5	9.0	15.75	10.2
4	RB12	Jeff Wilson Jr.	at BUF	43.5	13.5	15.00	9.9
4	RB13	James Cook	vs MIA	43.5	-13.5	28.50	6.3
4	RB14	Rachaad White	vs DAL	45.5	2.5	21.50	8.2
4	RB15	Devin Singletary	vs MIA	43.5	-13.5	28.50	10.5
4	RB16	Elijah Mitchell	vs SEA	42.0	-9.5	25.75	8.7
5	RB17	Gus Edwards	at CIN	40.5	9.0	15.75	6.6
5	RB18	Samaje Perine	vs BAL	40.5	-9.0	24.75	8.9
5	RB19	JaMycal Hasty	vs LAC	47.5	2.5	22.50	5.0
5	RB20	DeeJay Dallas	at SF	42.0	9.5	16.25	3.1
5	RB21	Alexander Mattison	vs NYG	48.0	-3.0	25.50	5.2
5	RB22	Joshua Kelley	at JAC	47.5	-2.5	25.00	5.4
5	RB23	Salvon Ahmed	at BUF	43.5	13.5	15.00	2.0
6	RB24	Kenyan Drake	at CIN	40.5	9.0	15.75	8.7
6	RB25	Nyheim Hines	vs MIA	43.5	-13.5	28.50	5.1
6	RB26	Jordan Mason	vs SEA	42.0	-9.5	25.75	2.7
6	RB27	Matt Breida	at MIN	48.0	3.0	22.50	3.5

Tier 1 – Saquon Barkley

Barkley ascends into Tier 1 with Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler for the Wild Card round. He averages 19 points per game over the last three weeks, and his utilization is top-three in the NFL.

Week	Snaps	Rush Att	Routes	Targets	TPRR	SDD Snaps	i5 Att	LDD Snaps	2MIN Snaps	PPR
15	86%	64%	63%	28%	36%	100%	100%	91%	0%	23.0
16	91%	82%	81%	26%	25%	100%	0%	100%	0%	27.3
17	79%	36%	90%	17%	15%	75%	0%	83%	100%	7.3
YTD	75%	64%	59%	16%	19%	81%	61%	65%	67%	17.6

In Week 16 against the Vikings, Barkley delivered his second-largest fantasy outing of the season with 27 points. He ran for 84 yards and a TD on 14 attempts and was a terror in the passing attack, turning 10 targets into eight receptions for 49 yards.

The Vikings have incorporated more man coverage concepts over the last few weeks, but they still rank as the third-heaviest zone team (77%) on the season. When the Giants get zone looks, Barkley’s TPRR jumps to 21% – a six percentage point improvement over man coverage.

Barkley has a lot of outs in a great matchup that could be a shootout, making him a SMASH play on Super Wild Card Weekend.

Tier 2 – Dalvin Cook

Cook is getting overlooked by industry rankers after registering RB26, RB42, and RB48 finishes over the last three games. On the surface, his utilization also appears to be on the decline.

Week	Snaps	Rush Att	Routes	Targets	TPRR	SDD Snaps	i5 Att	LDD Snaps	2MIN Snaps	PPR
15	85%	71%	75%	8%	9%	80%	67%	82%	100%	29.0
16	79%	74%	43%	9%	18%	67%	0%	64%	100%	10.7
17	59%	56%	43%	9%	18%	50%	100%	50%	22%	7.1
18	34%	31%	17%	3%	17%	11%	0%	38%	0%	5.1
YTD	72%	67%	53%	8%	13%	70%	60%	68%	78%	14.5

However, once accounting for the context of Week 17 and Week 18, we can see there was a reason for his reduced role.

Week 17: Blowout loss to Packers where Cook only played 15% of snaps in the fourth quarter.
Week 18: The Vikings rested their starters after halftime.

Excluding these two games, Cook averages a 75% snap share and 72% rushing attempt share, which could lead to a 20-plus opportunity game against a lackluster run defense. The Giants allow 142 rushing yards per game in non-overtime play, which is a top-three matchup.

The Vikings are slight favorites at home, carrying the third-highest team total on the slate.

Cook ranks six slots ahead of industry consensus and is a SMASH play.

Tier 2 – Travis Etienne Jr.

Etienne saw a reduced workload in Week 18 in a must-win game against the Titans, where he only played 56% of the snaps and handled 50% of the rushing attempts. JaMycal Hasty played 48% of the snaps, a season-high for a non-Etienne injury game.

Without this recent question mark looming over his utilization, the second-year RB would qualify as a Tier 1 RB in a matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Chargers allow a mouth-watering 143 yards per game in non-overtime play.

Etienne is a boom-bust RB1 against the Chargers in Round 1 of postseason play.

Tier 2 – Tony Pollard

Pollard averaged 20 fantasy points per game in the first four games after Ezekiel Elliott returned to the lineup in Week 11, delivering RB1, RB41, RB2, and RB7 finishes. Since then, his production has slipped with RB18, RB16, and RB74 finishes.

The electric RB was due for regression after scoring six TDs over a four-game span despite a timeshare. However, he remains an electric playmaker on a quality offense where his utilization is fairly steady.

Week	Snaps	Rush Att	Routes	Targets	TPRR	SDD Snaps	i5 Att	LDD Snaps	2MIN Snaps	PPR
11	54%	39%	56%	21%	33%	36%	50%	40%	100%	36.9
12	59%	46%	33%	7%	25%	20%	0%	77%	0%	8.1
13	41%	34%	42%	10%	21%	50%	50%	50%	50%	24.6
14	58%	34%	60%	13%	20%	50%	0%	70%	52%	22.2
15	55%	48%	37%	17%	38%	64%	50%	45%	100%	14.6
16	53%	32%	58%	23%	32%	0%	0%	60%	0%	14.0
18	43%	28%	44%	3%	5%	50%	0%	50%	50%	1.9
YTD	49%	37%	41%	10%	20%	46%	26%	49%	50%	15.5

Pollard has given up some looks inside the five-yard line to Elliott, but the team is still willing to use him in short-yardage situations. He continues to hold a slight edge in passing-down opportunities, and he ranks higher than Elliott in missed tackles forced rate, yards after contact, and 10-plus yard carries.

The Buccaneers are a middling run defense, and there is potential for a shootout with the third-highest game total on the slate.

Pollard is a low-end RB1 option.

Tier 3 – J.K. Dobbins

It sounded like Dobbins might have to take on a more significant workload early in the week, with Gus Edwards earning a questionable designation after missing practice. Thankfully, Edwards is off the injury report and will play.

Dobbins averaged 14.3 attempts and 99.3 yards over his last four games and in Week 17, he saw a season-high 68% of attempts. So there is still a chance that Dobbins pushes for 15-plus touches, but Edwards’ presence reduces his potential for a 20-touch outing. The third-year RB has averaged 25% in route participation since his return, limiting him to only two targets over four games.

The Ravens are nine-point dogs to the Bengals, which could present a challenge for Dobbins. Fortunately, Baltimore ranks above the league average in run rate in trailing, close, and leading game scripts, which helps offset the potential of a super low-touch game.

Dobbins remains in the top 12 with the return of Edwards, but his ceiling takes a step back.

Tier 3 – Jeff Wilson Jr.

Wilson carved out the starting role in Miami over the last three games, but he could get another bump with Raheem Mostert (thumb) out. Salvon Ahmed will also pick up some work, but Wilson dominated the passing-down work over the last three games, opening the door to an every-down type of workload.

We haven’t seen Wilson in a game without Mostert, but we have witnessed Mostert without Wilson. In Week 15, Mostert played 76% of snaps and bogarted 71% of the rushing attempts. He also took all the work inside the five and played on passing downs. Ahmed played 24% of snaps and accounted for 25% of the rushing attempts that game.

The Dolphins are almost two-TD dogs to the Bills and battling multiple offensive line injuries, making it hard to get too excited about Wilson. However, he has 21 and 18 total opportunities (attempts plus targets) over the last two games, so 20-plus feels safe.

Wilson moves to RB12 up from RB16.

Additional RB Notes & Movers:

Tier 2 – Joe Mixon averages 15.4 fantasy points over the last four weeks, excluding the canceled game against Buffalo. However, he has lost the two-minute role and his rush attempt share has dropped from 73% to 57% since returning from a concussion in Week 14. With a reduced role in a matchup against a high-end run defense, Mixon still registers as a mid-range RB1, but he ranks three spots below expert consensus.

Wide Receiver

Tier	Pos Rank	Player	Opp	Game Total	Spread	Team Total	PPG
1	WR1	Justin Jefferson	vs NYG	48.0	-3.0	25.50	21.7
1	WR2	Ja'Marr Chase	vs BAL	40.5	-9.0	24.75	18.6
1	WR3	Stefon Diggs	vs MIA	43.5	-13.5	28.50	18.9
2	WR4	Keenan Allen	at JAC	47.5	-2.5	25.00	16.4
2	WR5	CeeDee Lamb	at TB	45.5	-2.5	24.00	17.7
2	WR6	Tyreek Hill	at BUF	43.5	13.5	15.00	20.1
2	WR7	Tee Higgins	vs BAL	40.5	-9.0	24.75	14.9
3	WR8	Chris Godwin	vs DAL	45.5	2.5	21.50	14.9
3	WR9	Mike Evans	vs DAL	45.5	2.5	21.50	15.0
3	WR10	Deebo Samuel	vs SEA	42.0	-9.5	25.75	13.0
3	WR11	Jaylen Waddle	at BUF	43.5	13.5	15.00	15.2
3	WR12	Christian Kirk	vs LAC	47.5	2.5	22.50	14.2
3	WR13	DK Metcalf	at SF	42.0	9.5	16.25	13.3
3	WR14	Brandon Aiyuk	vs SEA	42.0	-9.5	25.75	13.4
3	WR15	Tyler Lockett	at SF	42.0	9.5	16.25	14.8
3	WR16	Joshua Palmer	at JAC	47.5	-2.5	25.00	10.6
4	WR17	Gabe Davis	vs MIA	43.5	-13.5	28.50	11.4
4	WR18	Zay Jones	vs LAC	47.5	2.5	22.50	12.4
4	WR19	Richie James Jr.	at MIN	48.0	3.0	22.50	8.3
4	WR20	Tyler Boyd	vs BAL	40.5	-9.0	24.75	10.3
4	WR21	K.J. Osborn	vs NYG	48.0	-3.0	25.50	9.2
4	WR22	Isaiah Hodgins	at MIN	48.0	3.0	22.50	11.1
4	WR23	Adam Thielen	vs NYG	48.0	-3.0	25.50	10.6
4	WR24	Darius Slayton	at MIN	48.0	3.0	22.50	9.9
5	WR25	Isaiah McKenzie	vs MIA	43.5	-13.5	28.50	7.5
5	WR26	Russell Gage	vs DAL	45.5	2.5	21.50	9.5
5	WR27	Marvin Jones Jr.	vs LAC	47.5	2.5	22.50	7.3
5	WR28	Michael Gallup	at TB	45.5	-2.5	24.00	7.5
5	WR29	Khalil Shakir	vs MIA	43.5	-13.5	28.50	3.4
5	WR30	Demarcus Robinson	at CIN	40.5	9.0	15.75	6.5
5	WR31	DeAndre Carter	at JAC	47.5	-2.5	25.00	6.6
5	WR32	Noah Brown	at TB	45.5	-2.5	24.00	7.2
5	WR33	T.Y. Hilton	at TB	45.5	-2.5	24.00	6.4
6	WR34	Sammy Watkins	at CIN	40.5	9.0	15.75	5.2
6	WR35	Trent Sherfield	at BUF	43.5	13.5	15.00	5.2
6	WR36	Julio Jones	vs DAL	45.5	2.5	21.50	7.0
6	WR37	Jamal Agnew	vs LAC	47.5	2.5	22.50	4.8
6	WR38	Trenton Irwin	vs BAL	40.5	-9.0	24.75	7.0
6	WR39	Jauan Jennings	vs SEA	42.0	-9.5	25.75	5.2
6	WR40	John Brown	vs MIA	43.5	-13.5	28.50	5.6
6	WR41	James Proche II	at CIN	40.5	9.0	15.75	1.1

Tier 1 – Stefon Diggs

Diggs had an uncharacteristically bad three-game stretch from Week 14 to Week 16 with finishes of WR59, WR39, and WR69 while averaging 7.3 points. However, he got things going in Week 18 against the man-heavy Patriots defense.

Week	Routes	TPRR	Targets	ADOT	Air Yards	EZ Tgts	3rd/4th Down Targets	PA Targets	PPR
14	92%	17%	19%	5.6	13%	0%	17%	0%	6.7
15	92%	19%	22%	13.0	24%	20%	33%	38%	10.7
16	83%	8%	8%	12.5	9%	0%	0%	100%	4.6
18	86%	31%	32%	16.7	36%	14%	33%	50%	23.4
YTD	86%	26%	28%	11.9	34%	40%	24%	33%	19.8

This weekend, the veteran WR faces the Dolphins, one of the worst-graded PFF coverage units (55.1) who utilize man coverage the second-most (40%). This is fantastic news for Diggs, who sees a 33% TPRR against man – nine percentage points above his zone TPRR (24%).

Diggs is a SMASH play on Super Wild Card Weekend.

Tier 2 – Mike Evans

Evans suffered through a rough five-game stretch where he averaged 8.6 fantasy points. However, he has shown signs of life in two out of his last three games, with a WR25 and WR1 performance.

The ninth-year veteran isn’t the elite option we once knew, but his underlying receiving profile is in line with his last two seasons with Tom Brady.

Season	PFF Receiving Grade	TPRR	YPRR	FPTS Per Game
2020	75.0	19%	1.79	15.5
2021	72.3	18%	1.65	16.4
2022	75.6	20%	1.81	15.1

Sure, it took 12 targets, 10 receptions, 207 yards, and three TDs in Week 17 to get him to these numbers, but he made it.

Tampa Bay faces a Cowboys defense that was strong for most of the season, but over the last four games, they have the worst PFF coverage grade (50.7) out of all playoff teams.

Evans is a top-10 option in a contest with the third-highest game total.

Tier 3 – Tyler Lockett

Lockett was removed from the injury report after battling shin and hand injuries over the last few weeks. In Week 18, the new real estate agent registered an 87% route participation despite the injuries and delivered 15.4 fantasy points on four receptions for 54 yards and a TD.

Over the last few years, we have seen the Seahawks prioritize Lockett against zone-heavy teams, and the 49ers run the second-most zone in the NFL (79%). It is a tough matchup against a good defense, but the veteran WR’s yards per route run (YPRR) leap from 1.37 against man to 2.14 versus zone.

San Francisco boasts the No. 1 run defense in the NFL, which could push Seattle to attack via the air early and often. However, for the Seahawks to pull off an upset, Lockett likely comes through with a big game.

Lockett is the WR15 this weekend but carries a top-five potential.

Tier 3 – Josh Palmer

Mike Williams is out for Saturday’s game after Brandon Staley elected to play him in a meaningless game against Denver last weekend.

While a door closes for Williams, another one opens for Palmer. The second-year WR played well from Week 11 to Week 13 with Keenan Allen while Williams was out.

The Jaguars allow 250 yards receiving per game in non-overtime play – the third-most on the Wild Card slate.

Palmer climbs to WR16 and has WR1 upside in a contest with the second-highest game total.

Monitoring – Isaiah McKenzie

McKenzie picked up a hamstring injury on Wednesday and didn’t practice on Thursday or Friday. Officially, he is questionable to play, but this feels like a doubtful situation.

Jameson Crowder returned to practice, and the Bills opened his 21-day practice window, but it sounds like he is still a week away. That leaves Khalil Shakir, Cole Beasley, and John Brown to earn extra snaps if McKenzie can’t go.

Shakir and Beasley have flip-flopped back and forth in route participation over the last three games. However, Shakir has led the way in two out of three games with 42%, 14%, and 24%, versus 11%, 29%, and 0% for Beasley, who signed back to the active roster.

Assuming McKenzie is out, the rookie WR is a mid-range WR3 now, thanks to a six-game slate.

Additional WR Notes & Movers:

Tier 2 – Keenan Allen averages 9.9 targets per game (26%) since his return from injury in Week 11. He is the WR2 overall in that time frame and draws a matchup against the third-worst pass defense in the playoffs. The Jaguars allow 250 yards and 1.5 TDs per game in non-overtime play. Allen climbs all the way to WR4.
Tier 4 – K.J. Osborn has three top-13 finishes in his last four outings and is the No. 2 TPRR option against man coverage on the Vikings. The Giants use man coverage more than any other defense. Osborn moves inside the top 24 with only six games on the slate.

Tight End

Tier	Pos Rank	Player	Opp	Game Total	Spread	Team Total	PPG
1	TE1	George Kittle	vs SEA	42.0	-9.5	25.75	13.4
2	TE2	Mark Andrews	at CIN	40.5	9.0	15.75	12.7
2	TE3	T.J. Hockenson	vs NYG	48.0	-3.0	25.50	12.7
2	TE4	Evan Engram	vs LAC	47.5	2.5	22.50	10.4
2	TE5	Dawson Knox	vs MIA	43.5	-13.5	28.50	9.0
2	TE6	Dalton Schultz	at TB	45.5	-2.5	24.00	9.5
3	TE7	Gerald Everett	at JAC	47.5	-2.5	25.00	9.3
3	TE8	Isaiah Likely	at CIN	40.5	9.0	15.75	6.5
3	TE9	Hayden Hurst	vs BAL	40.5	-9.0	24.75	7.9
4	TE10	Noah Fant	at SF	42.0	9.5	16.25	7.2
4	TE11	Cade Otton	vs DAL	45.5	2.5	21.50	5.8
5	TE12	Mike Gesicki	at BUF	43.5	13.5	15.00	5.8
5	TE13	Daniel Bellinger	at MIN	48.0	3.0	22.50	6.8
5	TE14	Colby Parkinson	at SF	42.0	9.5	16.25	4.9
6	TE15	Irv Smith Jr.	vs NYG	48.0	-3.0	25.50	6.9

TE Notes & Movers:

Tier 2 – Dawson Knox averages 14.6 points over his last four games, excluding the canceled outing against the Bengals. His season-long target share sits at only 12%, but he had 27%, 22%, 20%, and 6% over the last four contests. Knox is a mid-range TE1.

Dwain McFarland