Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 10 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
At this point in the season, the real football implications are just as critical as the fantasy undertones.
We’re halfway through the season and about a month out from the fantasy playoffs. And yet, there’s not much doubt we’ll be talking about the outcome of Sunday’s matchups in late December. Our decisions now will be something we think about next week and the week after.
This weekend feels critical, but our approach to roster decisions should be the same. And, of course, our team has the projections and analysis to help you get your roster right.
Plus, as they do every week because they’re awesome, the rankers got together again to find a few players they’re higher or lower on relative to consensus. So, if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 10, check out their notes before kickoff.
RB – Tony Pollard (Cowboys) vs. Giants
I’m the highest ranker on Pollard (RB7), and I honestly feel like I’m still a little too low on him.
In eight games, Pollard has 664 yards on 120 carries and 35 targets. He’s the clear No. 1 RB on the team that ranks No. 3 in the league in scoring (27.5 PPG).
The only problem is that he last scored a TD in Week 1, and he has sabotaged his season with relative inefficiency (4.0 yards per carry, 5.4 yards per target). Fine, that’s two problems—and they’re not small—but this week, they might not matter: As a massive home favorite, Pollard could approach 20-plus touches and have multiple goal-line opportunities.
And he scored a TD last week—but then it was wiped off the board by a sheesh-inducing procedural penalty.
Against the Giants in Week 1, Pollard went off for 82 yards and two TDs on 14 carries and three targets.
WR – Marquise Brown (Cardinals) vs. Falcons
I’m the highest ranker on Brown (WR20), and that might be a result of weighting his upside a little more than his median—but he’s an upside player.
Brown is easily the No. 1 WR on the team with 42-440-5 receiving and a 40% air yard share on 77 targets, and with the expected return of QB Kyler Murray (knee), we should see the Cardinals' passing game improve: Brown is a mid-range WR2 with Murray.
Given that Brown lines up all across the formation, he’s likely to run roughly half his routes against CB Jeff Okudah, who has allowed 9.9 yards per target for his career.
RB – Rachaad White (Buccaneers) vs Titans
Buccaneers RB Rachaad White has ripped off three straight top-12 PPR finishes with unbelievably nice utilization and it’s like none of you even care:
While White’s rushing efficiency is nothing to write home about, his average of 1.26 yards per route run ranks 13th among 45 qualified RBs—and nobody has forced more missed tackles (16) on receptions this season.
Don’t expect the Buccaneers to score 37 points every week—they previously hadn’t cracked 20 in a game since Week 4—but White’s pass-game prowess should again be on display this Sunday against a pass-funnel Titans squad that has low key also struggled to slow down opposing rushing games in recent weeks:
- Week 1: 69 rushing yards allowed
- Week 2: 62
- Week 3: 78
- Week 4: 72
- Week 5: 193
- Week 6: 139
- Week 8: 140
- Week 9: 166.
White is my RB13 on the week and deserving of similar treatment as similar high-volume/low-efficiency options like Joe Mixon and Tony Pollard.
WR – Diontae Johnson (Steelers) vs Packers
Shoutout to Diontae Johnson for snapping his 655-day streak without a TD last week. The target-hog receiver has ripped off 5-79-0, 8-85-0, and 7-90-1 receiving lines since returning from the injured reserve list, easily out-targeting George Pickens (29 vs. 18) along the way.
Here’s a full list of WRs with more PPR points than Johnson during this stretch:
- A.J. Brown
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tyreek Hill
- Jordan Addison
- Stefon Diggs
Not too shabby—and this is with Kenny Pickett throwing just one total TD during the stretch. Johnson’s ceiling might as well be the moon if the Steelers’ second-year signal-caller can find a way to approach something close to “average” over the season’s final two months.
This week’s matchup against the Packers isn’t exactly what a bunch of nerds and virgins would call a “smash spot.” Then again, Johnson didn’t exactly have too rough of a time dealing with Jaire Alexander (shoulder, doubtful) and company during his 9-92-1 performance in Lambeau back in 2021.
The overall WR6 in PPR points over the past three weeks—read that again!—Johnson is back to weekly upside WR2 treatment despite Pickett continuing to underwhelm more weeks than not. He's my WR10 on the week despite carrying a consensus rank as the WR17; I'd fire up Johnson ahead of guys like Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Michael Pittman among others.
RB – David Montgomery (Lions) at Chargers
Montgomery was removed from the injury report after a full practice on Thursday and should be 100% when the Lions take on the Chargers in Week 10. However, while Montgomery was out, Jahmyr Gibbs captivated the hearts of fantasy managers and possibly the Lions' coaching staff.
The rookie erupted for 220 yards and two TDs on 37 totes and tacked on 15 targets, which he converted into 14 receptions for 95 yards. Gibbs was the No. 1 back in fantasy land over the last two games with 28 and 30 points.
After those performances, I expect Gibbs to have a more significant role but still believe Montgomery to be the lead back. When asked about the split, Dan Campbell said it will be a committee but noted, “So, we're gonna ask those guys to do things they do well, and that help our offense move the football.”
Based on how we have seen these players utilized together, their skillsets, and the recent comments from Campbell, it makes sense for Montgomery to continue as the primary early-down back, with Gibbs ramping up involvement on passing downs. While Montgomery will also likely cede touches on the ground, he should be in line for over 50% of the work and—most importantly—retain his role as the primary back inside the five-yard line.
Montgomery has given us RB17, RB2, and RB5 performances in three outings where he played at least 50% of snaps.
Moving forward, he will be more game-script-dependent but still good for low-end RB1 to high-end RB2 production.
This weekend, the Lions carry a top-four team total (25.75) against the Chargers, which should mean an opportunity or two for Montgomery to punch in a score. Los Angeles has become more stingy against the run, allowing the fifth-fewest yards per game on the ground (89.5), but Detroit has shown a willingness to stick with their run game—they rank 10th in rushing attempts over expectation.
Montgomery is my RB8 and No. 13 overall, 11 spots ahead of our consensus ranking.
WR – Tank Dell (Texans) at Bengals
Dell averages 17.2 points per game when he reaches an 80% route participation or higher—a number he should hit again in Week 10 with Nico Collins out.
The speedy rookie WR upgraded to high-end WR3 status in the Utilization Report this week, with the caveat that he hadn’t played in a game with Robert Woods and Noah Brown since Week 1. That week, he only had a 46% route participation. However, that worry subsided with Collins out, even though we should see Woods return to action.
The Texans will also be without Dameon Pierce against the Bengals, which should ensure Dell remains involved in the rushing attack. The rookie has at least two rushing attempts in four consecutive games. We could be looking at another 10-plus opportunity game for a player the Texans move all over the formation, making him a tricky weapon to nullify completely.
Dell comes in 10 spots ahead of consensus as my No. 30 player overall.
