Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 12 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
The Thanksgiving holiday has come and gone and the fantasy playoffs continue to inch closer.
This weekend feels critical, but our approach to roster decisions should be the same. And, of course, our team has the projections and analysis to help you get your roster right.
Plus, as they do every week because they’re awesome, the rankers got together again to find a few players they’re higher or lower on relative to consensus. So, if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 12, check out their notes before kickoff.
RB - Derrick Henry (Titans) vs Panthers
Henry managed to gain 100-plus yards and score a TD in four of five games before his recent two-game slide. Overall, tough run D matchups against the Buccaneers and Jaguars yielded just 64 scoreless yards on 23 touches.
Enter: The Panthers’ 31st-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position. Carolina has allowed at least 100 yards on the ground in all but one game this season, letting opposing RBs of all shapes and sizes largely do whatever they want.
Overall, this defense has allowed an opposing RB to score 15-plus PPR points in all but two games this season, notably getting absolutely fleeced by Raheem Mostert (34.2 PPR points), Kenneth Walker (30.6), Tyler Allgeier (24.4), David Montgomery (20.9), and Bijan Robinson (20.3).
Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) runs the ball towards Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Yaya Diaby (0) during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023. Credit: Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK
There’s a chance for showers and the weather is starting to get colder: It’s almost that time of the year when more and more professional football players start making business decisions when presented with the opportunity to meet Henry head-on. His career regular-season average yards per carry by month are:
- September: 3.9 yards per carry
- October: 4.6
- November: 5
- December: 5.5
- January: 5.4
Yes, Henry and PFF’s 30th-ranked offensive line aren’t exactly the same juggernaut as in years past. Also yes, the Panthers let Tony Pollard score a TD last week. Tony Pollard! I know! Can you believe it?
Obviously, fantasy managers are continuing to start Henry regardless through thick and thin; just realize the expectation for an explosion should be ESPECIALLY high ahead of this smash spot.
Also note that backup RB Tyjae Spears remains rostered in only 38% of Yahoo leagues—he’d instantly be in the upside RB2 conversation should Henry be forced to miss any time down the stretch. The rookie is good with the football in his hands.
WR - Michael Pittman (Colts) vs Buccaneers
Gardner Minshew is expected to have one of the more consistently clean pockets of the week against a Bucs secondary that has been torched by guys like Brandon Aiyuk (5-156-1), Noah Brown (6-153-1), Justin Jefferson (9-150-0), A.J. Brown (9-131-0), Amon-Ra St. Brown(12-124-1), and Tank Dell (6-114-2), among others.
Oh yeah, and now this Tampa Bay defense is HURT, dog:
- Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis (hip, questionable)
- CB Jamel Dean (ankle/foot, out)
- LB Devin White (foot, questionable)
- LB Lavonte David (groin, out)
Pittman is one of only nine WRs with at least 30% of their team’s targets. Only Tyreek Hill (8) has more games with at least eight receptions than Pittman (7).
Shocking but true: This Colts offense ranks ninth in points per game this season. Ninth! And it’s like none of you even care!
Expect Minshew’s undisputed No. 1 WR’s production to more closely match his alpha-level workload this week. 100-plus yards and a score is more than on the table ahead of this smash spot.
WR - A.J. Brown (Eagles) vs Bills
I have Brown as my No. 1 WR overall for the week.
Brown had just four targets in Week 11, which he turned into one eight-yard reception. The last time he had a comparably poor showing like that—Week 2 (4-29-0 receiving, six targets)—he followed it up with 56-897-6 receiving on 76 targets in seven games.
Nov 20, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) is unable to make the catch against Kansas City Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (38) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
I’m not worried about what I saw out of him in Week 11: He leads the league with a 47.4% air yards share, and since joining the Eagles last year, he has an electric 10.4 yards per target.
In the secondary, the Bills are without No. 1 CB Tre'Davious White (Achilles, IR) and CB Kaiir Elam (ankle, IR), and they might also be without CBs Dane Jackson (concussion) and Taron Johnson (concussion) and FS Taylor Rapp (neck), all of whom exited Week 11 with injuries.
TE - Trey McBride (Cardinals) vs Rams
I’m the highest ranker on staff with McBride at TE4, and I feel like that might still be too low.
McBride disappointed last year as a rookie (29-265-1 receiving, 39 targets), but this year, the 2021 unanimous All-American and Mackey Award winner has taken a big step forward: Since No. 1 TE Zach Ertz (quad, IR) was sidelined, McBride has 26-291-1 receiving on 35 targets in four games.
With QB Kyler Murray stabilizing the offense since his Week 10 return, McBride has true league-winning upside.
The Rams have struggled against TEs since losing SS Taylor Rapp, FS Nick Scott, and LB Bobby Wagner this offseason, and McBride had 4-62-0 receiving on five targets against the Rams in Week 6 despite splitting work with Ertz at the time.
