Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 14 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
The final week of (most) fantasy regular seasons is finally upon us.
To help you navigate the treacherous waters of the final push for the fantasy playoffs, our expert rankers have put a spotlight on their favorite positional values for Week 14 and why they differ so much from the consensus.
WR - Michael Pittman (Colts) at Bengals
Business is booming for Pittman with Gardner Minshew under center, averaging a mouth-watering 11.1 targets and 18.7 fantasy points per contest. The 26-year-old wideout only has one target share below 31% in his last six outings.
Historical comps with a similar profile to Pittman have averaged 20.7 points per game with a WR4 finish based on data from the last 12 seasons. Despite all this goodness, Pittman continues to lag in fantasy rankings across the industry for some reason.
The Colts carry an above-average team total (22.5) on the Week 14 slate and get a juicy matchup against a troubled Bengals secondary that is now also without Cam Taylor-Britt. Cincinnati allows the fifth-most passing yards per contest (270).
I have Pittman eight spots ahead of Fantasy Life consensus rankings this weekend.
WR - Nico Collins (Texans) at Jets
The weather situation in New York could force me to move Collins down, but I don’t like to factor weather heavily into my ranks until Sunday morning because so much can change. As of now, the forecast calls for wind and rain that could impact game conditions.
However, I will likely remain above consensus even if Collins gets a downgrade on Sunday morning. He has demonstrated high-end ability already as the No. 11 ranked WR with 17.7 points per game in 2023, plays in a top-three passing attack, and should be an even more significant focal point with Tank Dell out for the season.
Dec 3, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA;Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) is tackled b y Denver Broncos linebacker Baron Browning (56) in the second half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Collins has hogged 31% of the Texans' targets on plays without Dell on the field, and while the Jets' secondary is also a reason for concern—they allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (192)—we have seen the Bills and Dolphins drop 32 and 27 offensive points on them in recent weeks. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle eclipsed 100 yards against New York in Week 12.
Collins is currently my WR10 and my No. 19 player overall—18 spots ahead of Fantasy Life consensus. However, depending on the weather, he could drop out of the top 40 on Sunday morning.
QB - Dak Prescott (Cowboys) vs. Eagles
I stand alone among the rankers with Prescott as my QB1 this week. I’m not saying that they’re wrong, but I’m right.
I highlighted Prescott as an MVP candidate in Sunday’s Betting Life Newsletter. He was slow to start the year, but in the seven games since his embarrassing three-INT performance against the 49ers in a 42-10 road loss, he has passed for 2,173 yards and 21 TDs with just two INTs and added 29-129-2 rushing. He has been a top-three fantasy QB in all but one of those games.
The Cowboys need a victory to have a shot of winning the NFC East, and this is a situational smash spot for Prescott. In the regular season, he’s 32-22-1 ATS at home (+12.9% ROI). As a favorite, he’s 47-32-2 ATS (+14.7% ROI). In division, 27-11 ATS (+38.4% ROI). And as a divisional home favorite … 14-4 ATS (+52.5% ROI, per Action Network).
Plus, the Cowboys have three extra days to rest and prepare off Thursday Night Football.
The Eagles are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (22.1 FFPG), and Prescott had 374 yards and three TDs passing against them in Week 9.
WR - Deebo Samuel (49ers) vs. Seahawks
I’m the highest ranker on Deebo at WR9. I think he goes off this week.
Samuel exited Week 6 with a shoulder injury, missed Weeks 7-8, and played a diminished role in his Week 10 return, but in his eight full games this year, he has 680 yards and six TDs on 48 targets and 24 carries.
That’s not quite to the level of his 2021 first-team All-Pro performance (1,770 yards, 14 TDs on 121 targets, 59 carries), but it’s not far off either.
Against the Seahawks on Thanksgiving, Samuel had 7-79-0 receiving on nine targets with 4-15-1 rushing.
WR - Brandin Cooks (Cowboys) vs Eagles
Cooks struggled to find his role in the offense during the first month of the season, but he’s scored in five of seven games since the team’s embarrassing Week 5 loss to the 49ers:
- Week 6: 4-36-1 (PPR WR20)
- Week 8: 3-49-1 (WR29)
- Week 9: 1-7-0 (WR95)
- Week 10: 9-173-1 (WR3)
- Week 11: 3-32-0 (WR50)
- Week 12: 4-72-1 (WR21)
- Week 13: 4-45-1 (WR21)
Nov 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks (3) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the first half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Yes, Cooks only has more than five targets in one of these games, meaning he’s been especially reliant on big plays and TDs.
Also yes, these sorts of fantasy-friendly opportunities have been readily available inside of the league’s top-ranked scoring offense. Dak Prescott is one of just six QBs completing at least 60% of their passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield this season; Cooks has earned weekly upside WR3 treatment EVEN BEFORE CONSIDERING THE SMASH SPOT HE NOW FINDS HIMSELF IN.
The Eagles have allowed opposing WR groups to score an average of 50 (!) PPR points against them this season. The Commanders (44) and Buccaneers (41) round out the top-three worst defenses against the position and they aren’t particularly close to Philly.
I’d be shocked if the Eagles let CeeDee Lamb get going to a similar degree as their first matchup (11-191-0), meaning Cooks should be far more involved than he was in his two-target Week 9 performance. I’m starting the long-time stud receiver ahead of WRs with major QB and/or weather concerns like Calvin Ridley and Cooper Kupp this week.
RB - Javonte Williams (Broncos) vs Chargers
Williams has maintained awesome utilization following the team’s Week 9 bye despite not finding too much success in the box score over the past three weeks:
The Broncos have fed Williams at least 16 combined carries and targets in each of his past six games; don’t be surprised if the good times get rolling in a MAJOR way with two matchups to go against a Chargers defense that has looked incapable of slowing down anyone not named Bailey Zappe or Zach Wilson for the better part of the last month and a half.
Things have gotten even worse since losing stud DL Joey Bosa. Overall, the Chargers have allowed 200, 102, 197, and 148 rushing yards in their last four games.
Fire up Williams as an upside RB2 thanks to his top-six matchup in combined rush yards before contact and potential to see 20-plus touches in a sneaky shootout. I’m starting Williams ahead of guys like David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, and D’Andre Swift with confidence.
