Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 15 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
It’s the first round of the playoffs, and we’re all on edge.
Just getting to this point was hard enough. Injuries, bye weeks…it feels like every week we’ve been hit with something new. But now it’s crunch time. We have to make the best roster decisions so we’re still making moves come Tuesday morning.
So, to help, our crew got together again to comb through their rankings and talk about how they’re playing some of the top options for Week 15.
WR - Justin Jefferson (Vikings) at Bengals
Jefferson took a vicious hit last weekend thanks to a hospital ball from Joshua Dobbs but is on track to play this weekend (chest). Before the injury, Jefferson was doing Jefferson things with a 38% TPRR. His 27% TPRR ranks sixth in the NFL for WRs with at least 200 routes in 2023.
The Vikings are switching to Nick Mullens as the starting QB this weekend, which could boost the entire offense. Mullens has registered 250-plus passing yards in 65% of games where he played at least 70% of the snaps (17).
If you need more proof, look no further than his 244.5 passing yards prop on DraftKings. That isn’t a number we typically see for backups in their first game as a starter. We can’t expect Kirk Cousins-level production from the passing attack, but Jefferson still carries 25-point upside.
The Bengals allow the sixth-most passing yards per contest (267), and the Saturday game offers sneaky shootout potential. Both offenses have QBs that have proven themselves as backups and reside within loaded offenses.
Jefferson is my No. 12 player overall—almost 20 spots above the Fantasy Life consensus rankings.
WR - Brandin Cooks (Cowboys) at Bills
Cooks averages 15.4 fantasy points per game over the last five outings, making him a solid WR2. After a slow start to the season, we have seen the reemergence of Cooks’ big-play ability, with 16.8 yards per reception plus three receiving TDs over that stretch.
While Cooks may stay hot thanks to residing in one of the best passing attacks in the NFL, there are red flags in his underlying utilization. His 15% target share and 5.6 targets per game are well below typical WR2 numbers, as is his 21% air yards share.
Ultimately, this is the profile of a boom-bust WR3 at best, even once you account for the Cowboys' quality offense. Based on the last 12 years of data, his comp group averaged 10.1 fantasy points per game with a WR50 finish.
Dallas travels to Buffalo this weekend to face a secondary that concedes the 10th-fewest passing yards per game (226) and ranks sixth in passing EPA allowed and PFF coverage grade. Look for the Bills to limit the number of downfield shot plays, leaving Cooks vulnerable to a fantasy dud, given his low target share.
I have Cooks 10 spots below my fellow Fantasy Life rankers as my No. 83 player overall and my WR39.
RB - Ezekiel Elliott (Patriots) vs. Chiefs
I’m easily the highest ranker on the staff on Elliott. I have him at RB13, whereas the next-highest ranker has him at RB18. What’s wrong with these other guys … and what’s wrong with me?
I can’t believe I’m high on Elliott, but it’s Week 15 in one of the weirdest NFL seasons I can remember: This is where we are.
Dec 7, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New England Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) runs on his way to scoring on a touchdown pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) exited Week 13 with an injury after playing just 17 snaps, and then he missed Week 14. I’m skeptical that he’ll return to action this Sunday, given that he’s yet to practice since his injury.
Uncoincidentally, Elliott over his past two games has had back-to-back season-high snap rates (69%, 91%), which he has leveraged into 232 yards and a TD on 39 carries and 13 targets.
The Chiefs are No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.018).
WR - DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) vs. Texans
I’m the highest ranker on Hopkins: I have him at WR14, whereas the next-highest ranker has him at WR17, and his consensus spot is 18.5.
This year, Hopkins has an efficient 8.4 yards per target, and in his seven games with QB Will Levis, he has 30-522-6 receiving on 60 targets with 2-9-0 rushing.
And over the past two games, the Titans have made an extra effort to get Hopkins the ball with 24 targets, which he has turned into 12-199-2 receiving.
I expect the Titans to continue to funnel the ball to Hopkins this week, given that he’s facing the Texans: “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”
He’s about to get Shakespearean on his former team.
WR - Odell Beckham Jr. (Ravens) vs Jaguars
The Jaguars have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season and also carry bottom-seven ranks in PPR points allowed to WRs and TEs alike: This is truly a pass-funnel defense that fantasy managers should feel GREAT about attacking considering they have been lit up by Jake Browning (354-1-0) and Joe Flacco (311-3-1) over the past two weeks.
Injuries certainly haven’t helped: The Jaguars were without CB Tre Herndon (concussion), CB Tyson Campbell (quad), and CB Christian Braswell (hamstring) last week and also could now be without S Andre Cisco (groin).
Enter: Lamar Jackson and company, who are coming off their second-most productive game of the season through the air despite having to deal with that whore Mother Nature. Each of Zay Flowers (6-60-1), Odell Beckham Jr. (4-97-1), and Isaiah Likely (5-83-1) managed to boom in that spot—can we expect an encore in Week 15?
Kind of. OBJ leads the way when considering the utilization at hand courtesy of Fantasy Life’s (free!) player comparison tool.
The concern is whether or not Jackson will really need to keep his foot on the gas as a passer—particularly if projected rain and wind becomes more problematic closer to Sunday night. Overall, Jackson’s 43 pass attempts in Week 14 marked just the second time all season that he finished a game with more than 33. This has remained a run-first offense more weeks than not throughout 2023.
Ultimately, neither WR quite cracks Fantasy Life’s top-24 options on a week with zero byes, but I’m still ahead of Fantasy Life consensus positional rank by a full four spots. My WR28 ahead of this potential smash spot, OBJ is more than deserving of starting FLEX treatment ahead of guys like Diontae Johnson, Brandin Cooks, and Chris Godwin among others.
WR - Jayden Reed (Packers) vs Buccaneers
The rookie has provided some consistent fantasy excellence over his last five games:
- Week 10: 5-84-1 receiving, 0-0-0 rushing, PPR WR12
- Week 11: 4-46-0, 3-46-1, WR11
- Week 12: 4-34-1, 2-16-0, WR25
- Week 13: 4-16-0, 0-0-0, WR50
- Week 14: 8-27-0, 4-38-1, WR6
Fun fact: Reed has averaged an NFL-high 10.8 yards per carry among all players with at least … 10 carries this season. Yes, it’s a small-sample size. Also yes, credit to the rookie for making defenses pay all over the field. Don’t you dare compare Reed to Deebo Samuel—but this explosive slot-maven possesses enough rushing upside to at least warrant “Gen Z Randall Cobb” consideration.
Dec 3, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed (11) is tackled by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie (22) following a pass reception at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Wm. Glasheen-USA TODAY Sports
Only the Eagles, Commanders, and Giants have allowed more PPR points per game to opposing WRs than the Bucs—and they’ve been particularly brutal against slot receivers all year long:
Tampa Bay vs. WRs aligned from the slot:
- Yards per attempt: 9.9 (30th)
- Explosive pass play rate: 21% (26th)
- Passer rating: 108.9 (27th)
- Contested target rate: 10% (30th)
While this Buccaneers defense has gotten slightly healthier in recent weeks, the likes of CB Carlton Davis (groin), CB Jamel Dean (ankle/foot), DT Vita Vea (toe), and L Devin White (foot) remain banged up.
Reed is a Fantasy Life consensus top-30 WR ahead of guys like Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, and Tee Higgins among others—but I’m going even further with him as my WR22 ahead of guys like Amari Cooper and Courtland Sutton. Also note that Romeo Doubs warrants the benefit of the doubt in closer FLEX start/sit decisions with the Packers being forced to condense their passing attack as long as Christian Watson (hamstring) and even Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) remain sidelined.
