Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 16 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
Happy holidays!
It’s time to get in that last-minute shopping, wrap presents, and spend some well-deserved time with family and friends.
Oh, wait. It’s also Week 16!
The fantasy semi-finals will be happening throughout the weekend, with games kicking off over the next three days. We know you’ll be busy, so we got your teams covered. Our rankers got together to find some of the top players they’re higher on than consensus for this weekend’s action. So, before you frantically set your lineup, check out what the guys have to say.
RB - De’Von Achane (Dolphins) vs. Cowboys
The rookie has cooled off after averaging 31.8 points per game in his first four NFL contests playing at least 35% of the snaps. Over the last two games, his average has dropped to 10.7, and the fantasy industry is pushing him down the ranks.
My question is, why? Surely, no reasonable ranker expected Achane to continue at that unsustainable pace—regression was always inevitable. Hmm. It must be due to his reduced workload.
Oh, wait. That hasn’t changed either. Achane averaged 15.3 opportunities per contest from Week 3 to Week 5. Over the last two games, he averaged 14.
So, the last two games really just provide us with a realistic floor for Achane when he doesn’t hit home-run bombs all game. However, we shouldn’t confuse that with his ability to deliver an elite-ceiling game.
For this reason, it is challenging for me to rank guys like Bijan Robinson, Joe Mixon, and Breece Hall ahead of Achane. They all have questions, and none have demonstrated the upside we have seen from Achane.
The matchup isn’t optimal against Dallas, but the recipe for beating the Cowboys' pass rush is to punch them in the face with the run game. The Bills reminded everyone of that in Week 15 when James Cook went nuclear for 36 fantasy points. The Dolphins have the fourth-highest team total on the slate in a game with massive shootout potential.
I have Achane 10 spots ahead of the Fantasy Life consensus in our flex rankings, making him a must-start as a top-20 play.
WR - Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) vs. Cowboys
Yes, I am going with another Dolphin.
Yes, Waddle finally erupted in Week 15.
Yes, it was without Tyreek Hill in the lineup.
No, that isn’t the only reason it happened.
With a 27% target share from Week 11 to Week 14, Waddle was due for an eruption game. Over that stretch, he averaged eight targets—only one fewer than the nine he had in his Week 15 get-right outing.
The Cowboys have been stingy against the pass, allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per contest. Against opposing WRs, Dallas has been the sixth-toughest matchup, allowing only 28.1 points per game.
However, this isn’t the first tough matchup of the season for the Dolphins—they got both Hill and Waddle to 100-plus yards against the Jets in Week 12, and obviously, Waddle ripped the top-three pass-D unit for 142 yards and a TD last weekend.
Throw the defensive matchup out the window in a game that offers gobs of scoring potential with the highest game total on the slate. In a highly condensed offense, Waddle will have a chance to go nuclear a second week in a row despite the return of Hill.
Waddle ranks nine spots ahead of consensus as my No. 26 flex play and is my WR13 against Dallas.
WR - Calvin Ridley (Jaguars) vs. Buccaneers
Yes, this is dependent on Trevor Lawrence (concussion) clearing the protocol by Sunday. Also yes, head coach Doug Pederson said the odds are looking like better than a coin flip that T-Law suits up.
Under the assumption Lawrence plays: Ridley has a lot working in his favor. The ex-Falcons veteran has racked up an absurd 25 targets over the past two weeks, yet only returned 4-53-0 and 5-39-0 production due to brutal matchups against the Browns and Ravens as well as some arguable f*ckery from the referees.
Many of his targets have been of the downfield variety: Only DeAndre Hopkins (376) and Zay Jones (357) have more air yards than Ridley (284) over the last two weeks of action.
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley (0) rushes for yards during the second quarter an NFL football matchup Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the Tennessee Titans 34-14. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
Oh yeah, another thing: Ridley is more cemented as Lawrence’s No. 1 target than ever with Jones (hamstring) joining Christian Kirk (core muscle, IR) on the sideline. We’ll find out for sure about Lawrence soon, but at least his ankle injury hasn’t been severely impacting 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick from a raw production standpoint: He’s cleared 250 passing yards in five consecutive games despite playing through the pain of said ankle injury. Lawrence only surpassed that mark in three of his first nine contests to start the season.
Final note: This week’s matchup against the Buccaneers is as good as they come. Only the Eagles and Commanders have allowed more PPR points per game to opposing WR rooms, and the secondary is far from healthy with No. 1 CB Carlton Davis (groin) and FS Ryan Neal (back) both uncertain for Sunday.
To summarize:
- Ridley is getting all kinds of fantasy-friendly volume recently.
- His target total actually has room to RISE due to another injury.
- The matchup is literally all fantasy managers could ever hope for.
Do you get what I’m saying? Jamal Agnew to the MOON, baby!
In all seriousness: Ridley is deserving of top-15 treatment *if* Lawrence manages to clear the protocol by Sunday. The presence of C.J. Beathard would downgrade Ridley to borderline WR2 territory alongside fellow No. 1 WRs with question marks under center like DeAndre Hopkins, Garrett Wilson, and Drake London.
WR - Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs. Raiders
The rookie has been absolutely en fuego since returning from the Chiefs’ Week 10 bye:
- Week 11: 4 rec-42 yards-0 TD (5 targets), PPR WR38
- Week 12: 8-107-1 (10), WR3
- Week 13: 8-64-0 (9), WR22
- Week 14: 7-72-1 (10), WR7
- Week 15: 9-91-1 (9), WR8
Overall, only Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb have more PPR points than Rice over the past five weeks of action. Not too shabby of company to be in!
Up next is the same Raiders defense that Rice returned a top-three finish against back in Week 12. His lowly 4.8-yard average target depth (second-lowest at the position) demonstrates the reality that Patrick Mahomes still isn’t overly looking for the rookie downfield, but gadget-esque usage is far less of a problem when it doesn’t take away from a full-time role – which Rice has had to the tune of 82% and 93% route rates over the past two weeks.
Overall, the only WRs I would start ahead of Rice in full-PPR settings this weekend: CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and D.J. Moore. That’s it.
RB Ezekiel Elliott (Patriots) at Broncos
Once again, I’m the highest ranker on Elliott, who is my RB13. Gross, I know. But this is all about usage (and a little about matchup).
Elliott disappointed last week, but I expect No. 1 RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) to miss another game given that he didn’t practice at all last week and is yet to get in a session this week. Hence, Zeke.
Dec 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) runs the ball during the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Since Week 13, when Stevenson exited with an injury after 17 snaps, Elliott has an 83% snap rate, 74% rush share, 66% route rate, and 24% target share, which he has leveraged into 278 yards and a TD on 50 carries and 19 targets.
Plus, the Broncos are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (26.3 per game).
It could be a lot worse.
WR Tee Higgins (Bengals) at Steelers
I’m the highest ranker on Higgins: He’s my WR15, and his upside feels significantly higher than that.
No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) exited last week early, and in his absence, Higgins led the team with eight targets, which he turned into a game-winning 4-61-2 receiving.
With the truncated recovery window and nature of his injury. Chase will be out this week, so Higgins should continue to operate as the top pass-catching option in an offense that hasn’t fallen off despite the absence of QB Joe Burrow (wrist, IR).
In his one healthy game against the Steelers last year—which was played without Chase—Higgins had 9-148-0 receiving on a season-high 13 targets.
The Steelers are without their starting safeties and could be exploited deep by Higgins for some big plays.
