Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 18 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
Have you played God of War: Ragnarok?
Awesome game. Series has been excellent. 10 out of 10. No notes.
But in the game, there’s a sequence where Kratos is fighting with Thor (Google the backstory to catch up; also, delightful storytelling), and the God of Thunder slaps the God of War with Mjolnir, killing him on the spot. You go to the death screen thinking you have to try again, but then Thor’s voice comes through saying, “Oh no…I say when we’re done!”. And then he shocks Kratos back to life and they continue fighting.
That’s essentially Week 18.
We thought we were done. Commissioners were awarding trophies and discussing payouts. The draft geeks are out in full force talking about Bo Nix’s arm talent. But all of the contract incentives and last-minute playoff pushes rip us back into focusing on the action!
So, before your mind wanders off to the 2024 draft and beyond, the rankings crew got together one last time to talk about who they’re into for the regular season finale.
WR - Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) vs. Browns
Chase hasn’t been the same WR since Joe Burrow left the lineup, scoring only 12.7 points per contest with a 23% TPRR—down from his marks of 19.9 and 26% over the first 10 weeks. Browning has been more of a dink-and-dunk passer with an aDOT of only 6.1 yards, which has been problematic for Chase on the outside.
Despite all of that, Chase is still an uber-talented WR who has led the team in target share and has accounted for 37% of the air yards with Browning under center—even if we include Week 15, where he left early due to injury. We have seen 40% of the endzone targets go toward Chase.
This weekend, things could be lining up perfectly for Chase. The vaunted Browns defense could rest multiple key starters with their playoff berth locked, and Tee Higgins appears unlikely to play. We could have one of the best WRs in the NFL in a consolidated offense against an average defensive unit, which is a spot where I want to bet on Chase every time—especially at only $7,300 on DraftKings.
Chase is my No. 14 player, almost 20 spots ahead of Fantasy Life consensus.
WR - Jordan Addison (Vikings) at Lions
Addison came up huge for fantasy managers in Week 15 as the WR1 with 29 points but wasn’t able to follow it up. In Week 16, he left the game early with an ankle injury that also limited him in practice heading into Week 17, which resulted in 5.8 fantasy points.
However, Addison is off the injury report heading into a must-win game for the Vikings to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The rookie WR has proven capable of earning targets at every level of the field, and with T.J. Hockenson out, he is the No. 2 behind Justin Jefferson.
Dec 10, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) carries the ball against Las Vegas Raiders cornerback Jack Jones (18) in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The Lions aren’t going to rest their starters because they still have a chance to secure the No. 2 seed if Dallas loses, which could propel this game into shootout status if the Vikings can get going on offense. Detroit has made significant improvements this season, but their secondary has remained a weakness, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards (260) and the sixth-most receiving TDs (1.6) per contest. Only the Eagles and Commanders concede more fantasy points to opposing WRs.
At only $5,300 in a matchup that could unlock his big-play upside, the rookie is in an excellent spot for Week 18.
Addison is a top-60 flex play for me—almost 11 spots ahead of Fantasy Life consensus—and is my WR24.
RB - Zamir White (Raiders) vs. Broncos
I’m the highest ranker this week on White, who is my RB6. (The other rankers currently have him at RB10.)
No. 1 RB Josh Jacobs (quad) has missed the past three games and didn’t practice at all last week. I’m skeptical he’ll return to action for the season finale given that he also missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday this week.
In his stead, White has 336 yards and a TD with a 70 snap rate, 74% rush rate, and 54% route rate over the past three weeks (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
The Broncos are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (24.5).
RB - Pierre Strong (Browns) at Bengals
I’m the highest ranker on Strong. He’s my RB28, and I might move him even higher as we get closer to kickoff.
Strong is just the No. 3 RB behind Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, but he could see the supermajority of the backfield work this week if the Browns (locked into the No. 5 seed) decide to rest Ford because he’s the starter and Hunt because he’s old.
While Strong hasn’t seen much usage across his two-year career (59 carries, 14 targets), he has flashed with his opportunities (5.5 yards per carry, 6.4 yards per target).
He has potential and a great matchup: The Bengals are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (42.5%) and without impact DT D.J. Reader (quad, IR).
WR - Brandin Cooks (Cowboys) vs. Commanders
Dak Prescott has the slate’s second-best matchup in terms of combined passing yards per dropback against the Commanders’ largely pitiful secondary. Dak made things look easy on his way to throwing for 331 yards and four TDs when these teams met on Thanksgiving.
Don’t be surprised if the encore includes Cooks getting going in a major way against this bottom-three defense in yards per attempt and TD rate allowed on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield.
The veteran receiver has scored in seven of his last 11 games; Cooks is the same boom-or-bust WR3 he’s been all season – the difference this week is that the former outcome looks more possible than ever with the Cowboys passing game poised to produce some fireworks.
RB - D’Andre Swift (Eagles) vs. Giants
No backfield has a better matchup this week in terms of combined rush yards before contact. Look no further than two weeks ago to find an example of Swift (20-92-1) making plenty of good things happen against this very defense.
There’s always a risk of expecting too much from Swift, considering Jalen Hurts vultures the TD every time the offense gets to the one-yard line; just realize Swift should be able to make the most out of his opportunities across the other 99 yards of the field this Sunday.
Swift's second half of the season hasn't been great, but he still has five top-12 PPR finishes to his name this season – don’t be surprised if the ex-Lions talent finds a way to pad the box score ahead of this smash spot.
