Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 2 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
It’s Week 2, and fantasy managers are already resetting expectations for, well, everything.
Some early-round draft picks didn’t pan out as expected after a week’s worth of games (I’m looking at you, Tee Higgins and Saquon Barkley). And others just had bad matchups. Regardless, the reality of the season hit us all, and we have to adjust.
As we head into another slate of games, our rankings squad got together again to find a few players they’re higher or lower on relative to consensus.
So if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 2, check out their notes before kickoff.
QB Brock Purdy (49ers) at Rams
In his seven full games last year—from Week 14 to the Divisional Round—Purdy went 7-0 as a starter and operated the offense with Jimmy Garoppolo-like efficiency, ranking No. 1 in EPA + CPOE (0.161).
Applied to the regular season, Purdy’s seven-game mark would’ve been No. 2, behind only Mahomes (0.178).
The Rams have the No. 32 secondary in our unit rankings, and 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan has dominated Rams HC Sean McVay in their head-to-head matchups, going 10-3 ATS (46.5% ROI) and 9-4 ML (46.1% ROI) against his former assistant (per Action Network).
In Week 1, Purdy picked up where he left off last year with 220-2-0 passing on a 65.5% completion rate with 9.0 AY/A and 3-20-0 rushing.
QB Geno Smith (Seahawks) at Lions
The Seahawks’ second-half performance fell off a cliff last week without the services of their starting offensive tackles.
- First half: 13 points, 10 first downs, 5.3 yards per play, +0.122 EPA per play
- Second half: 0 points, 0 first downs, 0.9 yards per play, -0.754 EPA per play
Head coach Pete Carroll said LT Charles Cross (toe) and RT Abraham Lucas (knee, IR) are both “hurting” and it’ll be a “challenge” for them to suit up this week. The team’s decision to sign 41-year-old OT Jason Peters off the street reflects the reality that this group will probably be dealing with backups on both ends of the line of scrimmage.
Not great ahead of a matchup with stud second-year Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson, who was one of just seven players to rack up at least seven pressures in Week 1.
WR D.K. Metcalf and RB Kenneth Walker are the only Seahawks who need to be started ahead of this sneaky dud matchup. Obviously, many will have to also take a long glance at the team’s additional talented skill-position weapons; just realize I’ll be answering most close start/sit questions involving Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the other guy as long as this offense continues to have such glaring problems on the line of scrimmage.
RB Rachaad White (Buccaneers) vs Bears
Yes, a worrying case is starting to be made that White is the NFL’s single-least efficient rusher of the football. Since the beginning of last season…
- PFF rush grade: 67.5 (No. 42 among 47 RBs with 100-plus carries)
- Yards per carry: 3.5 (tied for No. 46)
- Yards after contact per carry: 2.3 (No. 47)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.1 (No. 43)
Also yes, White received workhorse treatment in Week 1, handling 79% of the offense’s total snaps, 80% of the short-down-and-distance looks as well as 100% of the two-minute snaps.
Sep 10, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) runs with the ball against the Minnesota Vikings in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Up next is a Bears defense that had next to no answer for Aaron Jones last week and allowed the second-most PPR points per game to the position in 2022. Fire up White as a usage-based RB2 overdue for a quality performance.
WR Zay Flowers (Ravens) at Bengals
The Ravens will be without No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) and could be without No. 1 TE Mark Andrews (quad, out Week 1), which means that they could lean more on the passing game—especially as road underdogs—and more targets could be available for the WRs.
A first-round rookie with inside/outside versatility, Flowers handily led the Ravens with 9-78-0 receiving on 10 targets and pitched in with 2-9-0 rushing last week in his NFL debut.
Given what we saw in Week 1—when Flowers had an NFL-high 92.8% WOPR—I think he offers value at +1200 (BetMGM) to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
You can tail the OROY bet and get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new BetMGM account below!
WR Gabriel Davis (Bills) vs Raiders
Sauce Gardner and the Jets’ lethal pass defense are now responsible for all three of Josh Allen’s worst performances in terms of fantasy points from purely passing production since the beginning of last season.
Don’t be surprised if Maxx Crosby makes his presence felt on at least a few occasions; just realize Vegas fully expects this Bills offense to rebound in a major way. Just four offenses are currently implied to score more than 25 points based on Week 2 game totals and spreads:
- Bills (27.75)
- Chiefs (27.5)
- Lions (26.25)
- 49ers (26.25)
No Bills WR posted a higher route rate than Davis (94%) in Week 1; he remains fully locked in as Allen’s No. 2 WR inside an offense that continues to want to throw the ball more than just about anyone.
Credit to the Raiders for holding up against Russell Wilson and company last week, but don’t be surprised if Allen has a “Ya’ll must’ve forgot” sort of performance—and his top two WRs wind up being a major reason why.
WR Mike Williams (Chargers) at Titans
Williams let fantasy managers down last weekend with only 6.5 fantasy points, which hurt in a game where 70 points were scored. However, Williams missed most of the second quarter (evaluated for concussion), and the Chargers posted a -7% dropback rate over expected (DBOE) against a Dolphins defense that invited them to run the ball.
This week Los Angeles will face the Titans—a polar opposite to the Dolphins' scheme. Tennessee is extremely hard to run the ball against but prone to giving up big yardage through the air. Last weekend against this secondary, Derek Carr and the Saints threw for 305 yards with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 13.6 yards.
Given the QB and passing weapons at his disposal, we shouldn’t expect Kellen Moore to suddenly turn into a run-first coordinator. The matchup in Week 2 will allow the Chargers to be the best version of themselves.
I am seven spots ahead of consensus in the Fantasy Life flex rankings and 14 spots ahead of overall expert consensus. Williams is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 spike-week upside.
WR D.J. Moore (Bears) at Buccaneers
Did some fantasy drafters get a tad overzealous with Moore this preseason after he caught meaningless TDs against backups? Yes.
Does Moore deserve to fall out of the top 50 flex rankings after one bad week? No.
Moore will still likely lead the Bears in target share—talent profiles don’t change overnight. He had a bad game. Plus, Chicago posted a plus-7% DBOE in Week 1. It is just one game, but the potential is there for this team to uncork more passing opportunities, and my biggest fear for Moore coming into the season was passing play volume.
Sep 10, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) celebrates a first down run against the Green Bay Packers during their football game at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports
Last weekend, the Buccaneers defense allowed a sizzling 60.6 fantasy points to opposing pass catchers on 326 yards and two TDs. They allowed the third-most points to opposing WRs.
This game doesn’t look particularly exciting overall, with a bottom-five game total. However, the Bears could benefit from a game script where they don’t trail heavily on so many plays—their offense is built around efficiency rather than pure volume.
Moore looks like a fantastic contrarian play for DFS purposes this weekend. In fact, I already have multiple lineups built with Williams and Moore.
I am seven spots ahead of the Fantasy Life flex consensus. Consider Moore a low-end WR2 with WR1 upside in a great matchup in Week 2.
