Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 4 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
It’s Week 4, and we’re starting to learn something about these teams. Some of the offensive behavior matches our offseason assumptions. Like, the Bills still employ a pass-first approach.
But other teams challenge what we thought in August. Nico Collins AND Tank Dell being fantasy-relevant wasn’t on my ‘23 bingo card.
Regardless, we’re adjusting as more data becomes available. And now, you might just need the right analytical nudge to start or sit a player.
So, as we head into another slate of games, our rankings squad got together again to find a few players they’re higher or lower on relative to consensus.
So if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 4, check out their notes before kickoff.
QB Brock Purdy (49ers) vs. Cardinals
In his seven full games last year — from Week 14 to the Divisional Round — Purdy went 7-0 as a starter and operated the offense with elite efficiency, ranking No. 1 in EPA + CPOE (0.161).
This year, he has picked up where he left off: Through three games, he’s No. 2 in EPA + CPOE (0.184) and AY/A (9.0) — two QB efficiency metrics highly correlated with MVP voting outcome. I’m not saying that Purdy will win the award (although I have a position on him from the offseason at +5000 in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker), but he’s playing well.
The 49ers have a three-day advantage for rest and preparation and a slate-high team total (29 points).
For his career, Purdy is 8-2 ATS (52.1% ROI) and 10-0 ML (36.9% ROI, per Action Network) as a favorite.
RB James Conner (Cardinals) at 49ers
Conner has now peeled off seven consecutive RB2-level finishes since Kyler Murray (knee, IR) went down at the end of 2022.
- Week 14, 2022: 15-85-1 rushing, 6-29-0 receiving, PPR RB5 (95% snaps)
- Week 15, 2022: 16-63-1, 3-28-0, RB12 (91%)
- Week 16, 2022: 15-79-1, 7-41-0, RB4 (97%)
- Week 17, 2022: 16-79-0, 3-31-0, RB15 (55% - left early with a shin injury)
- Week 1, 2023: 14-62-0, 5-8-0, RB20 (84%)
- Week 2, 2023: 23-106-1, 0-0-0, RB15 (72%)
- Week 3, 2023: 14-98-1, 2-18-0, RB6 (64%)
It might not always be pretty, but Conner is the true engine of this offense and the favorite to account for whatever points they manage to put up on a weekly basis.
Shoutout to the Cardinals’ league-best offensive line in rushing yards before contact per carry; they might just have the recipe to make life SOMEWHAT bearable this Sunday against a 49ers front seven that has been good, not great, against the run on a per-carry basis this season.
The 49ers haven’t made ANYTHING easy on opposing offenses this season; just realize it’s awfully tough to bench any RB poised to rack up 20-plus touches during any given week. Conner remains a top-20 play for me this week at the position, while the rest of the Fantasy Life rankers have him as the week’s RB24 or worse.
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RB Alexander Mattison (Vikings) at Panthers
Finally, in Week 3, Mattison managed not to be a colossal disappointment (125 yards). For the year, he has 56 of the team’s 68 backfield opportunities (39 carries, 17 targets), and he leads the Vikings with nine opportunities (six carries, three targets) inside the 10-yard line.
Given that C Garrett Bradbury (back) got in multiple limited practices last week and was questionable heading into the weekend, I expect that he will return this week, and the Panthers could be without both their primary off-ball run defenders in LBs Shaq Thompson (ankle, IR) and Frankie Luvu (hip).
The Panthers are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (31.2 FPPG).
RB De’Von Achane (Dolphins) at Bills
Achane exploded for 51 points last weekend against a porous Denver defense. While he won’t come close to that total in Week 4, the genie is out of the bottle. The rookie RB is a big play waiting to happen and was Miami’s preferred option in the run game in Week 3.
Before the fourth quarter, when Brooks entered the game for mop-up duty, Achane accounted for 52% of the Dolphins' rushing attempts. There is a risk that Salvon Ahmed (questionable with a groin injury) reclaims more work, but Ahmed never came close to demanding the workload Achane unlocked in Week 3. I am betting on Ahmed being a 10%-snap player or less.
The matchup against the Bills is tougher, but they aren’t an impenetrable unit, giving up 111 yards per game on the ground as PFF’s 20th-graded run defense. They shut down Josh Jacobs and the predictable Raiders game plan in Week 3, but the Dolphins present a much more diverse puzzle to solve. In Week 1, we saw the explosive Breece Hall exploit large chunk plays with 10 attempts for 127 yards.
The Dolphins carry the fifth-highest team total on the slate in a game that could be a shootout, which pushes me further toward Achane. This rank is as much about not liking the options below Achane as anything else, where Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, and Brian Robinson all face their own challenges.
I have Achane as my RB17 and 38th player overall—nine spots ahead of Fantasy Life consensus.
RB Joe Mixon (Bengals) at Titans
The Titans give up the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (69) and the third-most yards per game through the air. Expect the strength of the Bengals offense—the passing attack—to dominate yardage in Week 4.
We can’t dismiss Joe Burrow’s calf injury completely, but he practiced fully this week, and last Monday night, Cincinnati had no issues channeling their offense through the air. In a game where Burrow was considered very questionable, their dropback rate over expected (DBOE) was +13%.
Whether that was the plan or coaching negligence, I can’t say, but it does appear like they are willing to play pass-heavy football, and this matchup will invite the same approach.
Mixon has been admirably efficient so far in 2023 after back-to-back miserable seasons. He should have big days ahead, but this isn’t the week to get overly excited about plugging him into lineups. He could come through with a short-yardage plunge to save your day. However, imagining a blowup scenario requires some imagination.
Mixon is my No. 40 player in Week 4—well below our consensus of 30.
WR Michael Pittman (Colts) vs. Rams
Pittman is the NFL’s only receiver with eight-plus catches in every game this season, and this reality has allowed the Colts’ undisputed No. 1 pass-game option to work as the overall PPR WR11 through three weeks of action.
Sep 17, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (24) and linebacker Henry To'oTo'o (39) tackle Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jenna Watson-USA TODAY Sports
While Pittman isn’t creating chunk plays down the field, his role in this surprisingly solid Colts passing game is the sort of stuff that PPR dreams are made of. Overall, a whopping 28 of Pittman’s 32 targets (88%) have come with an average target depth under 10 yards.
Shocking but true: It’s easier to get WRs the football more consistently when the QB doesn’t have to throw the ball that far. Pittman has earned weekly WR2 treatment thanks to this volume-hog role; he’s a particularly rock-solid start in full-PPR formats regardless of who is under center.
