Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 5 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
Heading into Week 4, we were starting to learn something about the league. And headed into Week 5, we’re reminded we know nothing. Or, we at least need to keep our head on a swivel.
Justin Fields threw for 17 TDs over the course of the entire ‘22 season. He has eight in the last seven days. As a result, D.J. Moore is on pace to hit a career-high in receiving TDs. Coincidentally, the Panthers are looking to trade for a WR1.
It just goes to show you how fast our results and our perceptions of players can change. And as they shift, so do our roster decisions.
So, as we head into another slate of games, our rankings squad got together again to find a few players they’re higher or lower on relative to consensus.
So if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 5, check out their notes before kickoff.
WR Nico Collins (Texans) at Falcons
The case for Collins comes down to the fact that rookie QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for more yards (970) than anyone in football over the past three weeks of action.
The WR8 in full PPR scoring, Collins has ripped off two top-five finishes during this stretch on his way to emerging as the offense’s No. 1 pass-game option. Overall, Collins has commanded a whopping 35.2% of his team's air yards and 23% of the targets.
Oct 1, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) makes a reception and scores a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Another case for why the good times should continue to roll: Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s ability to keep everything humming even while dealing with the league’s single-most banged-up offensive line. This is a top-three offense in yards after the catch per completion alongside the Dolphins and Chiefs. The Texans also boast the fourth-lowest deep pass rate in the league: They are clearly playing to their strengths so far—which makes sense!
Ultimately, Stroud and company boast the league’s seventh-highest explosive pass play rate and rank third in yards per attempt. The 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 2 overall pick isn’t just playing well relative to rookie-year expectations—Stroud has been working as one of the league’s most efficient passers regardless of experience through the first four weeks of 2023.
Kudos to the Falcons for having allowed just 127, 140, 243 (Lions), and 195 passing yards this season; conquering this unit would be yet another feather in Stroud’s hat—something I expect him to accomplish in style ALONGSIDE his No. 1 WR, Nico Collins.
RB D’Andre Swift (Eagles) at Rams
Since his Week 2 breakout with Kenneth Gainwell sidelined, Swift’s role has expanded. Over the last two games with both backs available, Swift has dominated all utilization aspects outside of the two-minute offense.
While we would love for Swift to pick up those sweet passing down snaps, the Eagles aren’t often facing game scripts that demand catch-up mode, which lessens the blow. Of course, that could change at any time—Swift is one of the best passing-down backs in the league, which makes Gainwell a luxury, not a necessity.
The more significant challenge for Swift is Jalen Hurts once they are in scoring position. The QB and Swift have split the carries inside the five-yard line 50/50 over the last two weeks.
Despite Hurts's and Gainwell’s roles, Swift has back-to-back high-end RB2 finishes with 15 and 18 fantasy points. His role is enough in a high-quality offense that converts 41% of their possessions into scores—fourth most in the NFL.
This weekend, the Eagles carry a top-three team total (27) in a matchup against the Rams with the second-highest game total (50) on the slate. Los Angeles has been middle-of-the-pack against the run, allowing 111 yards per game, but they have had issues tackling as PFF’s seventh-worst graded unit (42.6).
Look for another 15-plus fantasy performance from the Eagles' No. 1 RB, who I have ranked almost eight spots ahead of the Fantasy Life consensus.
RB Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs. Titans
Taylor is officially listed as questionable for Week 5, as the team wants to see how he responds to two full days of practice, but we should know something on Saturday.
Assuming Taylor is active, several scenarios could play out.
Scenario 1: Moss is the lead back
In this scenario, the Colts decide to ease Taylor back into action, and he handles around 30% of the rushing workload. Based on our projection model, that would put him around seven to eight rushing attempts and one reception. We would need a score to make Taylor worth starting in this outcome. His baseline projection comes in at 8 to 10 fantasy points.
Scenario 2: Split backfield
This is the most likely outcome, and I gave a slight edge to Taylor with 55% of the rushing attempts. He would see 14 to 16 opportunities between attempts and catches and score between 11 and 14 fantasy points.
Scenario 3: Taylor is the lead back
In this dream scenario, Taylor immediately takes over that juicy 85% snap share we have seen from Zack Moss. He would have a shot at 20-plus touches and could reach 16 to 18 fantasy points if he punches in a score.
I am unsure how much intel we will receive ahead of the game regarding the team’s plans for Taylor’s utilization. However, this range allows us to adjust if beat reporters scoop some actionable information.
The Titans aren’t a great matchup, allowing the fourth-fewest yards (70) and second-fewest TDs (0.25) per game on the ground. On a positive note, the Colts are one of the faster-paced teams, and there shouldn’t be a shortage of offensive plays.
Ultimately, I ranked Taylor near the other talented lead backs in split backfield situations. I have Taylor sandwiched between Raheem Mostert and James Cook. Of course, he has access to a higher ceiling if the Colts entirely turn the backfield over to him immediately.
Taylor is my RB14 and No. 24 player on the Week 5 slate.
RB David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Panthers
- Lions: -9
- O/U: 45
- TT: 27
Montgomery exited Week 2 early with a thigh injury and missed Week 3, but in Weeks 1 and 4 he had a dominant 215 yards and four TDs on 53 carries and two targets. For the season, he leads the league with 12 broken tackles forced.
Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery (5) celebrates scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers during their football game Thursday, September 28, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin.
With 1,000-plus yards and 25-plus receptions in each of his four full NFL seasons (2019-22 Bears), Montgomery has a three-down skill set.
He should get as much work as he can handle as a big home favorite against the Panthers, who are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.115) and DVOA (20.8%) and without LB Shaq Thompson (ankle, IR).
RB De’Von Achane (Dolphins) vs. Giants
- Dolphins: -10.5
- O/U: 49.5
- TT: 30
In Weeks 3-4, when Achane saw his first extended NFL action, the rookie looked like the second coming of Chris Johnson with 26-304-4 rushing and 7-49-2 receiving on nine targets. His talent is legit.
He has the upside to go off for his third consecutive 100-yard game as a big home favorite against the Giants, who are No. 24 in defensive rush EPA (-0.021).
TE Zach Ertz (Cardinals) vs. Bengals
- Cardinals: +3
- O/U: 44.5
- TT: 20.75
Ertz is No. 2 on the Cardinals and at the position with 30 targets. What he has done with that volume is relatively unimpressive (20-136-0 receiving).
With 4.5 yards per target, he’s essentially a catch-and-fall specialist—but his target volume can’t be ignored.
Without SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates, both of whom departed this past offseason in free agency, the Bengals are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (52.3%).
