Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 6 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
Week 5 is in the books and to some, it feels like the season is already over. Multiple stars headed to injured reserve earlier in the week with less-than-ideal options on the waiver wire to replace them.
Slotting K.J. Osborn into the same spot typically used for Justin Jefferson sounds like going from a bazooka to a toy gun. But what else are you going to do?
Check out our player tools and rankings, of course!
Our rankings squad got together again to find a few players they’re higher or lower on relative to consensus. So if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 6, or looking for that one guy that might give you the push you need to get a W, check out their notes before kickoff.
QB Brock Purdy (49ers) at Browns (Ian's QB11, consensus QB16)
There is some debate in Purdy’s standing among the league’s QBs in terms of how much of the team’s offensive success he is truly responsible for; just realize style points don’t matter in fantasy land, and Mr. Relevant continues to do nothing other than rack up solid performances.
Purdy has put forward the following weekly fantasy finishes in his 11 career regular season starts in chronological order:
- QB17
- QB6
- QB14
- QB13
- QB10
- QB5
- QB9
- QB22
- QB11
- QB11
- QB6
Nine of the 11 performances have featured top-14 production, while Purdy has finished as a legit QB1 in all but one of his last seven starts.
Oct 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason (24) celebrates with quarterback Brock Purdy (13) after scoring a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Of course, the 49ers haven’t exactly put the most on Purdy’s plate. He’s finished with fewer than 30 pass attempts in all but one game this season and has certainly benefited from the team's myriad talented play-makers all over the field.
Still, the presence of those players has helped Purdy produce the sort of asinine efficiency numbers that will continue to keep him firmly in the weekly QB1 conversation. Purdy (9.3) joins Tua Tagovailoa (9.7) as the only passers averaging over even eight yards per attempt this season—the 49ers and Dolphins are largely playing a different game than everyone else.
Nobody is going to confuse Purdy for guys like Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts in fantasy land anytime soon, but why can’t he continue to produce numbers on par with more pure pocket passers like Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, C.J. Stroud, and Matthew Stafford? Continue to fire up Purdy as a legit top-11 option as long as his play-makers and play-caller continue to be healthy.
RB David Montgomery (Lions) at Buccaneers
Montgomery exited Week 2 early with a thigh injury and missed Week 3, but in Weeks 1 & 4-5 he had a dominant 344 yards and five TDs on 72 carries and six targets. For the season, he leads the league with 12 broken tackles forced.
With 1,000-plus yards and 25-plus receptions in each of his four full NFL seasons (2019-22 Bears), Montgomery has a three-down skill set.
He could be without No. 2 RB Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring), who missed last week as a late addition to the injury report, and the Buccaneers are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (45.3%).
I’m not a big bettor in the anytime TD market, but Montgomery has an NFL-high eight carries inside the five-yard line, and he has scored a TD in every game played this year.
Plus, last week he narrowly missed out on two TDs by getting tackled at the one-yard line (sheesh, right?).
WR Cooper Kupp (Rams) vs. Cardinals
Kupp returned to action last week from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for the first month of the season, and he looked like himself with 8-118-0 receiving on 12 targets. It’s just a one-game sample, but so far he has a league-high 83.4% WOPR.
Despite missing the second half of last season with a high ankle sprain, Kupp has an absurd 261-3,355-28 receiving with 9.8 yards per target and 16-75-1 rushing since 2021 (31 games, including playoffs).
The Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (52.3%) and could be without FS Jalen Thompson (hamstring), who has been the team’s primary slot defender and exited Week 5 with an injury.
WR Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Cardinals
Nacua is the WR3 on the season and delivered a WR10 performance in Cooper Kupp’s first game back. It is meaningful that Nacua did this in a game where Kupp had a 98% route participation with a 37% target share. That was a monster target-share game for Kupp, and Nacua was STILL viable.
Nacua is likely here to stay, given his high-end target-earning ability and the Rams' offensive philosophy in 2023. Sean McVay is keeping the pedal to the metal with the fifth-highest dropback rate over expectation (DBOE) at +6%, and they rank sixth in plays per minute over expectation (PPMOE) at +0.06.
The Rams are willing to throw the ball in all game scripts, which gives us the green light against the Cardinals this weekend despite their status as seven-point favorites. Arizona gives up the sixth-most passing yards per game (274) in non-overtime play this year, and opposing passing attacks average the fifth-most TD passes (1.8) per contest.
Nacua is my WR7 and is No. 14 in my overall ranks—seven spots ahead of the Fantasy Life consensus.
WR Chris Olave (Saints) at Texans (Ian's WR12, consensus WR16)
Second in total air yards this season, Olave has had all the opportunity in the world, but he hasn’t quite managed to make the most out of it just yet.
I mean: Sheesh.
Good news fantasy managers:
- Pregame speculation that Olave suffered a toe injury of sorts didn’t impact his playing time at all, as the second-year talent ran a route on literally 100% of the offense’s dropbacks despite the blowout nature of the game.
- Derek Carr looked far healthier in his second game since injuring his right shoulder, earning PFF’s seventh-highest grade of the week while vastly improving both his average target depth (7.4 vs. 9.5) and yards per attempt (3.4 vs. 7) relative to last week.
Look for the good times to get rolling this week and beyond for Olave; his stretch of facing the Jaguars (No. 22), Colts (No. 24), Bears (No. 18), and Vikings (No. 31) before the team’s Week 11 bye is pretty, pretty, pretty great. Sign. Me. Up.
WR Adam Thielen (Panthers) at Dolphins
Thielen is playing like the 2017 version of himself when he was the WR7 in fantasy football. Out from under the shadow of Justin Jefferson and into the loving arms of playing slot WR, the 33-year-old is the WR10.
He has been the eighth-most targeted WR in the NFL through the first six games, putting him in some elite company.
No other WR in the NFL has accumulated more targets on third and fourth down than Thielen’s 20 (44%)—he is the most-trusted option in the Panthers' passing attack.
What the veteran is doing isn’t necessarily new to fantasy football. Previous aging target earners like Larry Fitzgerald (WR5) and Reggie Wayne (WR9) experienced age-34 resurrections after bumping inside to face off against linebackers and safeties in zone coverage. What might seem like early-season luck to some could be a trend that continues through the season if Thielen can stay healthy.
The Panthers are nearly two-TD dogs this weekend against Miami, so Thielen should have plenty of opportunities to clean up underneath the Dolphins’ zone-heavy coverage scheme. Savvy veterans Keenan Allen and Darren Waller posted 9 and 11 targets operating in the same area of the field that Thielen will patrol on Sunday.
Thielen is my WR13 entering this weekend and my No. 27 player overall—almost ten spots ahead of every other Fantasy Life ranker.
