Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 8 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus
I’m still struggling with the fact we have no teams on bye this week.
Seven days ago, the sky was falling as fantasy managers had to move (what seemed like) every top-12 option to their bench. And injuries put us into an even tighter bind.
But this week? Everyone’s back. Plus, and I’m knocking on wood while typing this, I’m not shocked at the practice reports after Friday.
However, in some ways, it makes our roster decisions tougher. With more players, and some in less than advantageous spots, we’ve got our work cut out for us in Week 8.
To help, our rankings squad got together again to find a few players they’re higher or lower on relative to consensus. So, if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 8, check out their notes before kickoff.
QB – Jordan Love (GB) vs MIN
Things certainly haven’t been going great for first-year starting QB Jordan Love, particularly in the first half: Green Bay has scored a total of *six* points during the first 30 minutes of action over their last four games.
Credit to Love and Company for usually proving capable of staging a comeback and making things interesting late; just realize it'd be a lot cooler if this offense could sustain some level of consistency throughout four consecutive quarters of action.
Of course, it is hard to maintain offensive consistency when Love has functioned as arguably the single-most inaccurate passer in football:
- Completion percentage over expected: -5.3% (No. 32)
- Adjusted completion rate: 65% (No. 33)
- Raw completion rate: 57.5 (No. 33)
The context of Love boasting the league’s second-highest average target depth (9.8 yards) matters, but still: This offense would suddenly look a helluva lot more lethal if their fourth-year QB could most consistently make the sort of layup throws that have been missing from this offense for most of the season.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) celebrates a victory against the Chicago Bears as he leaves the field during their football game Sunday, September 10, 2023, at Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill. Green Bay won 38-20.
Don’t get it twisted: Love has displayed some real highs this season (especially early on). His arm talent and athleticism force defenses to account for virtually every square inch of the field for better and (at this point mostly) worse.
In fantasy land, Love’s penchant for taking off and running has been very valuable and one of the main reasons why he’s worked as the QB8 in fantasy points per game through seven weeks: His average of 4.2 fantasy points per game from purely rushing production is the 10th-highest mark among all QBs to play at least five games this season.
Up next is a Vikings defense that has blitzed on a league-high 63.3% of their opponent's dropbacks. While Love actually boasts top-12 marks in PFF pass grade and passer rating against the blitz this season, it wouldn’t be surprising if life in this offense continues to present more struggle than joy in the near term.
RB – Breece Hall (Jets) at Giants
In Weeks 1-4, Hall had 32 carries and eight targets with a 40% snap rate as he returned from last year’s season-ending knee injury. But in Weeks 5-6, the Jets gave him a 60% snap rate, 34 carries, and eight targets (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
With this amplified workload, Hall has put up 287 yards and two TDs over his past two games.
Coming off the Week 7 bye, he should continue to see similar usage, and I expect him to have comparable production against the Giants, who are No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (0.013) and don’t even have a true home-field advantage in this spot, given that the Jets also play at MetLife Stadium.
RB – Darrell Henderson (LAR) vs DAL
Henderson certainly dominated usage last week and made the sort of plays that should lead to even more playing time down the road.
Of course, there is the reality that Royce Freeman (12-66-0) made more out of his rush attempts than Henderson (18-61-1).
After the game, Head Coach Sean McVay said that he was pleased with both Henderson and Freeman, noting, “You can expect to see, I would imagine, a similar deal (this week), and then we'll see how Myles (Gaskin) and Zach (Evans) fit into that equation."
Ultimately, McVay is one of few coaches in the NFL who has been willing to feature *one* true workhorse RB over the years. Whether it be Todd Gurley, C.J. Anderson, Cam Akers, Kyren Williams or even Henderson himself: Identifying the Rams lead RB has been one of the more consistent paths to obtaining high-end fantasy production out there over the years.
While Micah Parsons and company are absolutely no joke, this Cowboys defense hasn’t been all that lethal against opposing rushing attacks this season:
- Yards per carry allowed: 4.2 (No. 19)
- Yards before contact per carry allowed: 1.6 (No. 27)
- Successful run play rate allowed: 30.9% (No. 22)
Don’t expect Henderson to post Kyren-esque RB1 production; this passing attack is far too condensed around Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to expect that. Still, Henderson projects for 15-plus combined carries and targets in the near term – a role worthy of low-end RB2 treatment regardless of the matchup.
RB – Darrell Henderson (LAR) vs DAL (Part 2)
Henderson rolled off his couch into a Rams uniform to lead the team with 18 carries and two targets last weekend. He led the team with a 60% snap share and 58% of the rushing attempts.
The Rams backfield comes with some uncertainty this weekend, but we have seen Sean McVay feed one back over the years. Todd Gurley, Henderson, Cam Akers and most recently, Kyren Williams have all enjoyed periods of elite utilization under McVay.
This weekend, we could see Henderson in a similar role to last weekend, but there is also a chance we see him in that bell-cow role with an 80% snap share. Last week should have been the weekend Royce Freeman led the way. He should have been in better shape and locked into the Rams’ game plan, given his presence on the practice squad all season, but that wasn’t the case.
The Cowboys have been stingy against the pass, but teams that have established the run game have found success against their pass rush. The Rams have reigned in their pass-heavy ways over the last two games, posting their two lowest dropback rate over expectation (DBOE) marks of the year at -3% and -8%.
Look for the Rams to continue to feed Henderson this weekend even if things start slow – they know their offensive line can’t hold up against the Dallas pass rush.
Keeping the Cowboys honest against the run will also help set up their play-action passing game with Kupp and Nacua.
Henderson is my No. 54 player, thirteen spots ahead of the Fantasy Life consensus.
WR – Jordan Addison (Vikings) at Packers
Since Week 5 — when No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring, IR) exited the game early with an injury — Addison has 16-215-4 receiving on 24 targets, and aside from a game-scripted one-target Week 4 stinker, he has looked like a competent and consistent pass catcher with five-plus targets and either 50 yards or a TD in each game.
Addison looks like the WR we saw in college.
The Packers could be without No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (back), who missed last week after aggravating the injury that caused him to sit out Weeks 3-4.
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WR – Jakobi Meyers (Raiders) at Lions
In a season where Puka Nacua, Adam Thielen and Kyren Williams erupted, Meyers hasn’t gotten his due.
The fifth-year WR has played six games, and in five of them, he delivered a top-40 finish across RBs, WRs and TEs. In four of them, he has been a top-25 option.
This is a top-20 player on a points-per-game basis that ranks in the same range as players like D.J. Moore, Kyren, Cooper Kupp and Kenneth Walker, and it’s like none of you even care.
Well, I care, dammit, and there is nothing Matthew Freedman, Ian Hartitz, or Rob Waziak can do to silence me. Someone has to stand up for Meyers and his rights as a 2023 fantasy breakout.
The underlying data tells us that Meyers ' early season production isn't a fluke, averaging 9.3 targets per game (28%) and 38% of the Raiders’ air yards.
However, Meyers gets pushed down in many rankers’ processes because of the weekly low team totals for Las Vegas.
While we care about team totals for TD upside, they aren’t everything when we have a player getting Meyers’ workload. When researching correlation to future fantasy points, historical production is king. It is worth twice as much as the team total or defensive matchup. We care about all of these things, but Meyer’s performance to date is the trump card.
So yeah, we have another low total this weekend for the Raiders (19), who are eight-point dogs against the Lions. Detroit has been a top-two defense against the run, and Vegas has been ineffective on the ground, which could create a pass funnel game for Meyers and Davante Adams. The Lions give up the 10th-most passing yards per game.
Meyers ranks as my No. 29 flex option – 13 spots ahead of the Fantasy Life consensus.
