Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 9 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
This weekend feels like the opposite extreme of what we experienced last week.
In Week 8, we were overloaded with players on a slate with no byes. But the matchups looked rough across the board.
This week? We’re back to having teams taking their in-season break and blockbuster contests in every window on Sunday. The only commonality is multiple games with a projected total under 40.
And that’s where things get difficult.
We’ve got multiple squads starting backup QBs or high-end assets facing tough defenses. Few every-week starters look safe, and even fewer on our benches look viable. But don’t worry, we got your back.
The crew got together again to find a few players they were higher or lower on relative to consensus. So, if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 9, check out their notes before kickoff.
RB – D’Andre Swift (Eagles) vs. Cowboys
As I’m writing this (Friday 8 am ET), I have Swift at No. 13 in our 0.5-PPR flex rankings, which is five spots higher than the consensus (18) and six spots higher than any of the other rankers have him (19).
I almost included Swift in my Week 9 Freedman’s Favorites article, but he didn’t quite make the cut because I didn’t want to include too many “obvious” guys—and I do think that Swift is obvious.
Oct 22, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back D'Andre Swift (0) runs with the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
The Eagles are home favorites, and Swift has 703 yards and four TDs on 116 carries and 31 targets in seven games since becoming the team’s clear No. 1 RB in Week 2. As such, he has had at least 18 opportunities in every game, and I expect him to see a similar workload this week against a Cowboys defense that is No. 30 in rush success rate (45.5%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
RB – Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs. Commanders
I’m the highest on Stevenson of the rankers. I have him at No. 27 in our 0.5-PPR flex rankings, whereas his consensus is 33.8 and the next-highest rank is 33.
In the three games since the Patriots were shut out at home by the Saints, they have adjusted their offense to get Stevenson more involved in the pass game, resulting in 13-86-0 receiving on 16 targets. That, when combined with his 29-119-1 rushing in that span, is enough to make him attractive against a Commanders defense that just traded away impact starting linemen in EDGEs Montez Sweat and Chase Young.
As a home favorite, Stevenson could be heavily involved throughout the entirety of the game.
WR – Demario Douglas (Patriots) vs. Commanders
Patriots rookie WR Demario Douglas led the Patriots in route participation rate last week and could continue to do so moving forward with Kendrick Bourne (knee, IR) sidelined. DeVante Parker (concussion) is also ruled out, leaving Mac Jones with few other avenues to go with the football this Sunday.
Want to hear the best part? The rookie is set up BRILLIANTLY in Week 9 against the Commanders’ 31st-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position … and that was WITH recently traded pass rushers Chase Young (49ers) and Montez Sweat (Bears).
I have Douglas ranked as my WR32 this week ahead of guys like Marquise Brown, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson among others thanks to Douglas’s fantasy-friendly combination of a pristine matchup and newfound high-end opportunity.
WR – Jahan Dotson (Commanders) vs. Patriots
A season-high 10 targets helped Dotson post his biggest game of the season in Week 8—as did Curtis Samuel (toe/foot) missing time—but the truly intriguing part here was that Dotson looked good on his way to catching 8 of his 10 targets for 108 yards and a TD, demonstrating sure hands and an ability to create separation while lined up both outside as well as in the slot.
Of course, Terry McLaurin (5-63-1) and Jamison Crowder (7-95-1) also enjoyed big games with Sam Howell throwing for 397 yards and not one, not two, not three, but four TDs against the Eagles. There was more than enough meat on the bone to go around … at least for last week.
It’s probably not reasonable to expect Howell to only take one sack in many more games, although on the other hand: This league’s 31st-ranked scoring defense looks to only be getting worse after dealing pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the deadline. This profiles as the sort of offense that will have no choice but to throw the ball deep into games in an effort to feign competitiveness.
Oct 1, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson (1) catches touchdown pass against Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Josh Jobe (28) and safety Terrell Edmunds (26) during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
A quick look at the team’s leading target earners on the season demonstrates the reality that removing even one of the team’s big-four pieces for a short period of time (possibly Samuel) could really open things up for the complementary options.
- McLaurin: 24.3% target share
- Dotson: 15.9%
- Samuel: 15.8%
- Logan Thomas: 14.8%
In short: Week 8 could be the start of bigger things to come in Dotson’s fantasy production with Samuel (ruled out) still missing time. Don’t be surprised if Howell has more success than most young QBs against a 2023 Bill Belichick-led defense that ranks just 26th in scoring and dead ass last in Havoc rate.
WR – Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) vs. Chiefs
The start of the 2023 season was a slow one for Waddle. He picked up an abdominal strain late in the preseason and then suffered a concussion in Week 2 that kept him out in Week 3. Over his first three games, he averaged a paltry 18% targets per route run (TPRR) and 11 fantasy points.
But over the last four games, the former first-round NFL draft pick has been on fire. He is averaging a 33% TPRR and 17.5 points per contest. He missed part of Week 7 due to a lower back issue but still boasts a gaudy 29% target share. In Week 8, he scored a season-high 25 fantasy points.
While Tyreek Hill is an absolute alpha, when healthy, Waddle can push for 30% target shares in a highly condensed offense in Miami. On most plays, Hill or Waddle are the primary read because a) they are badass and b) the tertiary target competition is low.
The Dolphins use three-WR sets the third-least in the NFL (42%), meaning these two superstars are competing for looks with one of the backs, Durham Smythe (TE), or Alec Ingold (FB). Miami is one of the few offenses in the NFL where we can reasonably expect two receiving options to account for 60-70% of targets—and that is what we have seen over the last four games.
The Dolphins face the Chiefs in Germany in a game with the best total on the slate at 50.5 points. On a week where starting QB injuries could torpedo multiple superstars like Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams, Waddle deserves more love across industry ranks given the game environment, his historical fantasy value, and recent performances.
Waddle is a SMASH play and ranks as my No. 13 player out of all RBs, WRs, and TEs in Week 9, eight spots ahead of consensus.
WR – Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs. Bills
Things couldn’t have started much worse for Higgins. Over the first four weeks of the season, the Bengals' offense looked like a shell of its former self, with Joe Burrow battling a calf injury. The once high-flying attack was grounded for 181 yards and half a TD per game during that stretch—way off their marks of 280 and 2.2 in 2022.
Then, the fourth-year WR picked up a rib injury that caused him to miss Week 5 and limited his route participation to 51% and 56% in Weeks 4 and 5.
In four healthy games, Higgins averaged eight targets per game (23%) and 102 air yards (45%)—which makes him borderline WR1 material. Look for Higgins to bounce back to form in the coming weeks, and there is no better time than a juicy matchup against the Bills in Week 9.
The Bengals carry the second-highest team total on the slate (25.75) in a game that should push both offenses to score as early and often as possible. Both teams have high-caliber QBs and rank in the top five in DBOE (dropbacks over expectation).
Amazingly, Higgins is one of the most traded fantasy players over the last several days, so don’t be afraid to make an offer to your local league mate before kickoff. Some of the recent trades including Higgins have been pretty shocking.
Higgins is a borderline WR1 and ranks as my No. 29 player—eight spots ahead of consensus.
