We’re humans who play fantasy football, so we’re prone to overreacting. This is especially true throughout the long and torturous offseason, the nightmare that is a multi-month stretch without football.
What do we do to pass the time? We overreact. Whether they’re bold takes in response to what we saw last year or overreacting to news that will affect the upcoming season … there’s no better time to overreact than now.
So, let’s overreact together.
C.J. Stroud will follow up Offensive Rookie of the Year Award with MVP
How can you really overreact after C.J. Stroud’s phenomenal rookie season?
You project his sophomore season will be even bigger.
After becoming the first Houston Texan to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award and breaking numerous records, last season was not just a flash in the pan for Stroud. As for this season, let’s start with the underrated good: Head coach DeMeco Ryans kept most of the coaching staff in place, which is a win already. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik was a hot head coach candidate this offseason but decided to stay with the Texans under a new reworked contract. And Slowik wasn’t the only piece vital to Stroud’s success who decided to return — quarterbacks coach Jerrod Johnson also remains in Houston after a handful of offensive coordinator interviews.
So we can check off the coaching boxes. Now let’s get to the fun part…
The Texans are trying to maximize Stroud’s rookie contract, and in doing so they traded for star receiver Stefon Diggs. While Diggs did not live up to his price tag last season, there are plenty of reasons to believe this change of scenery will lead to a big 2024 campaign. In Weeks 1-9, he operated as the fantasy WR3 and held down a 76% route participation with 834 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Diggs turned 30 in November, but it’s worth noting that in the first six games of the season, he was averaging career-high marks in both receptions per game (7.9) and yards per game (96.9).
Then his production took a nosedive.
Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
From Week 10 to the end of the regular season, he averaged 9.75 PPR points per game and finished inside the top 15 only once. There were rumors that his relationship with quarterback Josh Allen was broken, and the team’s move to fire offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replace him with Joe Brady didn’t exactly help his production.
Overall, I'm a big believer in players getting the chance to wipe the slate clean with a change of scenery. It was obvious Diggs was unhappy in Buffalo, but I don't believe it will carry over to his new team. How can he be upset about landing on this roster?!
In this Texans offense, he may not be the center of attention given they also have Nico Collins and Tank Dell, but he will be a higher priority in Houston than he was in Buffalo last season.
One area the Texans fell short during the 2023 season was on the ground. Their running backs scored only seven touchdowns, had a 23.8% success rate inside the 5-yard line and were virtually last in every rushing metric. But the organization went out and addressed the RB position as well.
Signing Joe Mixon, who will be 28 when the season begins, gives the team an experienced player who rushed for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns last season with the Bengals. He also posted 346 receiving yards and three receiving TDs. In some cases, leaving a high-powered offense like Cincinnati's would result in a downgrade, but the Texans lost Devin Singletary and the only other competition is Dameon Pierce, who has been disappointing.
Mixon will upgrade this backfield and help stabilize a previously shaky facet of the team. If Houston can have an effective run game, it will unlock another part of Slowik's offense. This needs to happen for the Texans to take the next step, and I believe the addition of Mixon will do this — yet another positive for Stroud.
Ultimately, Stroud threw for 4,108 yards, led the league in TD/INT ratio (23 to 5) and finished the 2023 fantasy season as the QB11 with 280.5 PPR points. Nothing big was taken away from him, and the team had a few big additions. His OC and QBs coach are back, he has an enviable wide receiver trio and he'll be coming off the highs of last year wanting more. As such, I believe he'll add NFL MVP honors to his laundry list of accomplishments.
Risk does not outweigh reward with Chargers
This could be a “choose your own adventure” kind of fantasy season for the Chargers. On one hand, new head coach Jim Harbaugh has a winning pedigree and the team needed a change after a disappointing 2023 season under then-head coach Brandon Staley. On the other hand, the offensive turnover they had leaves us questioning whether there's enough talent left for a new coach to make the team fantasy-relevant. Harbaugh is a winner, but will wins translate to fantasy success?
There's value in the current Chargers players, perhaps enough to fool us into believing they can outperform their current ADP. But let me be clear: I couldn't draft anyone on this team and feel good about it afterward.
And, yes, I'm aware they have Justin (freaking) Herbert. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, having finished as QB7, QB2, QB15 and QB10 in fantasy points per game in his young career. His 2023 season was cut short, as he had surgery to repair the broken index finger on his right hand with four games remaining. In one-QB leagues, you need to draft someone with a more positive fantasy outlook — heavily counting on Herbert to produce could be a disaster. He is a fine No. 2 quarterback option in superflex leagues, but make sure you don't pay a high premium for a current QB16.
May 29, 2024; Costa Mesa, CA, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) during organized team activities at Hoag Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Something else to make clear: I don't believe Harbaugh's arrival automatically means this team is going to break the rushing attempts record and that Herbert will simply have no value. But Harbaugh and new offensive coordinator Greg Roman are known for their run-heavy offensive scheme. In fact, let’s travel back in time for a moment …
Roman was the offensive coordinator for the 49ers when Harbaugh was the head coach, and under Roman (2011-2014), San Francisco had the second-highest rush rate in the NFL, one of only two teams to run the ball over 50% of the time. In his two years as offensive coordinator for the Bills (2015-2016), Buffalo had the highest rush rate in the NFL, and with the Ravens (2019-2022), his offense had the most rush attempts and were the only team to have a rush rate over 50%.
So, yeah, they’re going to run the damn ball. Herbert will be ranked somewhere around the QB16 range, and a path inside the top eight is hard to imagine this season. Harbaugh is a winner and has proven he can develop quarterbacks, but with this WR room consisting of Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey, I’m less optimistic for their 2024 outlook.
The Chargers desperately needed wide receiver help after losing Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, so they drafted McConkey with the 34th overall pick in this year's NFL Draft. The team believes McConkey can play both in the slot and outside. According to Dwain McFarland's Rookie Super Model, McConkey was one of the best wide receivers in the class against zone with a 25% TPRR and the best yards per route run (YPRR) at 3.05. The NFL plays zone 70% of the time and McConkey was described as a "zone monster," so he has legit WR1 potential on this team.
Here is the current Average Draft Position for each fantasy-relevant Charger:
- Justin Herbert: QB16 (118 ADP)
- Joshua Palmer: WR61 (134 ADP)
- Ladd McConkey: WR55 (113 ADP)
- Quentin Johnston: WR66 (145 ADP)
- Gus Edwards: RB38 (127 ADP)
- J.K. Dobbins: RB53 (178 ADP)
I'm optimistic the Chargers will once again reign supreme in fantasy football, but I won't go out of my way to draft them this season. I'll potentially target Herbert as a second QB in superflex leagues and will take shots on McConkey as long as his price tag isn't steep. Running back Gus Edwards knows Roman's system and played well with him in seasons prior, so he's also a player I'll add (if he falls to me), hoping he's used in a role similar to when he played with the Ravens.
These players are already discounted, but sometimes we don't need to dive deep into why. There's no reading between the lines here. I want to win my fantasy leagues, and it doesn't look like Herbert and company could get me to the championship this season.
