The 2023 NFL season is 16.6% done, meaning there’s still a LOT more football to be played, but we also certainly have a better idea of what’s going on relative to a few short weeks ago.

Small-sample sizes be damned: Fantasy points leaderboards are looking WONKY after three weeks of action, leading us to question whether or not the production is smoke in mirrors, or a sign of more good things to come.

What follows is a breakdown on the most surprisingly good fantasy assets this season in terms of the discrepancy between fantasy points and preseason ADP.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Quarterback

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins

  • Preseason ADP: QB12
  • Current rank: QB1

Yes, the Vikings are 0-3 this season.

Also yes, Cousins is putting up pretty, pretty, pretty good numbers at the momen

  • EPA per dropback: +0.1 (No. 13)
  • CPOE: +4.3% (No. 10)
  • PFF passing grade: 76.8 (No. 7)
  • Paser rating: 108.2 (No. 3)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 78.6% (No. 8)
  • Passing yards: 1,075 (No. 1)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.8 (No. 4)
  • Passing TD: 8 (No. 1)

Put it all together, and NOBODY at the position has scored more fantasy points than Kirko Chainz through three weeks.

It’s easy to blame Cousins for Week 3’s late-game clock management issues, but then again the mishap would have been a moot point had TE T.J. Hockenson held on to this rather perfectly placed final pass that wound up being intercepted.

Perhaps the thing really working in this passing game’s favor at the moment (other than Justin Jefferson continuing to be a world beater) is the dismal state of the defense. Twenty-seventh in EPA allowed per play and 26th in both allowed yards per play and points per game, the Vikings haven’t looked capable of slowing down pretty much anyone through three weeks of football — meaning more fantasy-friendly shootouts could be on the way.

While it’d be surprising if Cousins finishes the year as fantasy’s overall QB1, the man has worked as the QB12 in fantasy points per game for three consecutive seasons for a reason. Continue to fire up the 35-year-old veteran as a locked in top-eight option at the position ahead of Week 4’s matchup against the Panthers.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud

  • Preseason ADP: QB28
  • Current rank: QB9

The 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 2 overall pick’s 906 pass yards trail only Cousins (1,075), Tua Tagovailoa (1,024), Justin Herbert (938) and Matthew Stafford (916).

And here’s the thing: Stroud has looked good doing it (pause).

Stroud ranks eighth in yards per attempt (7.5) and has raised the expectations for this 2023 Texans offense in a hurry despite dealing with an awfully banged up offensive line along the way:

  • OT Laremy Tunsil (knee, missed the last two games)
  • OT Tytus Howard (hand, IR)
  • OT Charlie Heck (foot, IR)
  • G Kenyon Green (shoulder, IR)
  • C Scott Quessenberry (knee, IR)
  • C Juice Scruggs (hamstring, IR)

There will inevitably be some rookie-induced downs along the way, but at a minimum Stroud is deserving of inclusion in the same pocket-passer QB2 tier as guys like Jared Goff, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford.

So much for that S2 test, huh.

Honorable mention

  • Packers QB Jordan Love (QB20 ADP, QB5) already has more games with three passing TDs (2) than Aaron Rodgers (1) did in 2022. How’s THAT for data, but seriously: Matt LaFleur’s scheme is working wonders — the problem is that Love ranks dead ass last in adjusted completion rate (59.8%) despite his penchant for making several b-e-a-utiful throws a game. It’d make sense if things get easier once WR Christian Watson (hamstring) and RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) are back in the lineup; that said, there’s a low weekly floor here should Love not run quite so hot in the pass TD percentage (7.3, 2nd) department.

Running Back

Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert

  • Preseason ADP: RB48
  • Current rank: RB1

There’s a new king atop the NFL RB leaderboard in yards per carry during the Super Bowl era (min. 500 career carries):

  1. Mostert (5.42)
  2. Bo Jackson (5.4)
  3. Jamaal Charles (5.38)
  4. Nick Chubb (5.26)
  5. Gus Edwards (5.15)

Getting to run inside of Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel’s ever-well-designed run schemes have certainly helped matters, but the veteran also deserves credit for still being among the league’s fastest players at the ripe age of 31.

Sep 24, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) runs with the ball against the Denver Broncos in the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Mostert has already racked up 319 total yards and seven TDs this season; pretty much nothing other than the injury bug looks capable of slowing down this Dolphins offense at the moment *knocks on wood*.

Continue to fire up the speedy veteran as a legit top-12 option at the position, especially as long as Jeff Wilson (hand/midsection, IR) remains completely out of the picture.

Colts RB Zack Moss

  • Preseason ADP: N/A
  • Current rank: RB13

Moss didn’t even play in Week 1, yet unironically finds himself in the Week 4 RB1 conversation after back-to-back sterling RB10 and RB5 performances. Overall, Moss has racked up 252 total yards with a pair of scores — and here’s the wild part: Moss has objectively balled the hell out along the way.

Undoubtedly not helping teammate Jonathan Taylor’s (ankle, IR) cause for a new contract, Moss is tied with none other than Christian McCaffrey for the league-high mark in forced missed tackles on the ground with 16 … AND HE’S ONLY PLAYED TWO GAMES.

Moss’ early-season success is particularly impressive when considering he hasn’t even had a chance to benefit from Anthony Richardson’s (concussion) dual-threat impact when it comes to widening rushing lanes in the read option game. Even then: Credit to this offensive line for averaging a robust 2.3 yards before contact per rush — the fifth-highest mark in the league.

Obviously, Moss’ status as a borderline RB1 in Week 4 won’t continue IF Taylor returns in Week 5 with no funny business, but as you probably noticed: That’s a big if. Even if JT returns to his usual full-time role sooner rather than later, Moss would still carry huge season-long handcuff upside on top of the potential to maybe even earn some semblance of standalone value should the 25-year-old talent continue to play so well.

Honorable mentions

  • Rams RB Kyren Williams (RB65 ADP, RB5) posted a dud in Week 3, but it was on a 100% snap rate. Williams will remain a recommended RB1 in fantasy land for however long head coach Sean McVay chooses to play the second-year back in a legit every-down role.
  • Dolphins RB De’Von Achane (RB41 ADP, RB6) has scored the sixth-most fantasy points of any player at the position in essentially one game. Read the sentence again. Yes, injuries to Jaylen Waddle (concussion) and Salvon Ahmed (knee) helped matters; just realize it’d be shocking if the rookie doesn’t see more consistent work moving forward.
  • Browns RB Jerome Ford (RB58 ADP, RB10) obviously is only here because of Nick Chubb’s (knee) unfortunate season-ending injury, but credit to Ford on proving plenty capable of creating explosive plays in his first two extended appearances. His Week 3 utilization was low-key meh, then again it’d be shocking if the second-year talent doesn’t keep seeing plenty of opportunities with the way he’s playing.
  • Commanders RB Brian Robison (RB35 ADP, RB8) has emerged as the clear No. 1 RB in Washington after many presumed it’d be more of a two-RB committee with Antonio Gibson in the preseason. Blowout-induced game script in Week 3 prevented Robinson from racking up 20-plus touches for only the second time in his last eight games — he’s locked in as a top-20 option at the position inside of a Commanders offense that was showing signs of growth before their Week 3 letdown.

Wide Receiver

Buccaneers WR Mike Evans

  • Preseason ADP: WR34
  • Current rank: WR5

Evans turned 30 in August, but you would have no idea based on some of the plays he’s made so far. Overall, the longtime stud has ripped off 6-66-1, 6-171-1 and 5-60-1 performances in the first three weeks of 2023, proving more than capable of keeping on keeping on as a fantasy WR1 despite going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield.

It’s tough to call this production fluky: Evans continues to be a bully at the catch point and still seems to have more than enough speed to keep defensive backs honest.

We’ll really find out if the Mayfield-Evans connection is legit legit on Sunday against the Saints, as longtime nemesis Marshon Lattimore has made life difficult for the Bucs’ No. 1 WR over the years. Get your popcorn ready for that ever-eventful affair.

Clearly Evans was mispriced as a WR3 during the preseason process. This Buccaneers passing game has the potential to be the 2023 version version of the 2022 Seahawks; don’t be surprised if No. 13 racks up his 10th-consecutive 1,000-plus yard campaign while providing more boom performances, even if maintaining current top-five production is probably wishful thinking.

Panthers WR Adam Thielen

  • Preseason ADP: WR62
  • Current rank: WR9

Another relatively elderly WR who is balling out to start the season, Thielen played through an ankle injury in Week 1 before delivering 7-54-1 and 11-145-1 performances against the Saints and Seahawks. He achieved this with a team-high 25 targets and sure looks the part of this offense’s No. 1 pass-game option.

Adam Thielen

Here’s the catch: This offense also sure looked the part of the league’ single-worst passing game with No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young (ankle) under center in Weeks 1 and 2 before Andy Dalton somewhat steadied the ship in Week 3.

Thielen’s huge Week 3 in particular had the perfect mixture of factors with:

  1. Dalton under center in place of Young
  2. A matchup against the Seahawks’ objectively bad secondary
  3. Blowout-worthy game script that forced Dalton to throw 58 (!) passes.

Overall, Thielen ranks fourth at the position in PPR points in specifically the fourth quarter: He’s undoubtedly benefited from this rather bad Panthers team trailing for all but 48 seconds of the fourth quarter action that they’ve had this season.

That said: Garbage-time points count the same as regular-time points in fantasy land; don’t be surprised if Thielen AGAIN puts up WR1-level production should Dalton remain under center ahead of Sunday’s #RevengeGame against the Vikings. He’ll be more of a volume-based WR3 in Week 5 and beyond once Young is back in action.

Honorable mentions

  • Rams WR Puka Nacua (N/A ADP, WR6) broke every rookie record known to man during the first two games of the season before “only” posting PPR WR36 production on Monday night against the Bengals. Essentially the offense’s replacement for Cooper Kupp (hamstring, IR) for the time being: Don’t be surprised if the fifth-round pick gets back to balling in a major way in Week 4 in Indianapolis.
  • Texans WR Tank Dell (WR76 ADP, WR13) and WR Nico Collins (WR55 ADP, WR19) are the two main beneficiaries from the C.J. Stroud experience. Dell’s utilization numbers continue to move in the right direction after playing behind Noah Brown (groin, IR) in Week 1. Don’t expect Dell to keep up THIS high of production and necessarily displace Collins atop the projected team receiving leaderboard, but clearly the pint-sized rookie has broken into the weekly WR3 conversation and should be a priority on the waiver wire.
  • Colts WR Michael Pittman (WR33 ADP, WR10) is currently the only player in the NFL with at least eight receptions in all three games this season. Locked in as the clear alpha of this surprisingly competent Colts passing attack, Pittman is a weekly volume-based WR2 with the potential for more should a healthy Anthony Richardson (concussion) prove capable of surpassing rookie-year expectations as a passer.
  • Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers (WR54 ADP, WR21) has put forward top-24 production despite only playing in two games. While Meyers’ 9-81-2 performance in Week 1 was the primary boom, his 7-85-0 production on a whopping 12 targets last Sunday night proved the debut wasn’t a fluke. Note that last week’s performance was nearly even bigger, but Meyers was one of many players to get tackled at the 1-yard line and NOT score a TD on the same drive.

Tight End

Lions TE Sam LaPorta

  • Preseason ADP: TE16
  • Current rank: TE2

The rookie TE is playing out of his fooking mind to start the season, ripping off 5-39-0, 5-63-0 and most recently 8-84-1 performances on a whopping 22 targets — the second-highest mark by a TE in the league behind only T.J. Hockenson (27).

More impressive than the raw counting numbers has been the efficiency in which LaPorta has displayed. Overall, his average of 2.24 yards per route run is *FIRST* among all TEs with at least 15 targets since Week 1 of last season. Taylor Swift’s alleged significant other sits in second place at 2.19.

While the Lions coaching staff certainly deserves plenty of credit for their ever-lethal pass-game schemes, LaPorta is already showing off enough speed and route-running chops to create the sort of explosive plays downfield that not many at his position are capable of achieving.

Even the eventual return of Jameson Williams (suspension) isn’t likely to overly take away from the latest stud Iowa TE’s gaudy 23.5% target share. LaPorta is deserving of top-six treatment moving forward and looks the part of the position’s next big thing.

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Patriots TE Hunter Henry

  • Preseason ADP: TE29
  • Current rank: TE3

Henry posted 5-56-1 and 6-52-1 receiving lines to start the year before Week 3’s 2-17-0 dud against the Jets’ ever-lethal secondary. The veteran TE is playing a near every-down role and trails only Kendrick Bourne (25) in targets (18) after three weeks.

Things simply tend to go well when Mac Jones targets his trustworthy TE: No player at the position has a higher passer rating when targeted than Henry (128.2) this season.

Jones is averaging a career-high 249.3 passing yards per game and already has five TDs through the air — a mark he didn’t reach until Week 12 last season.

Expecting top-three production the rest of the way from Henry is tough given his relative lack of a yardage ceiling; just realize his status as a top-two pass-game option in this ascending attack has the makings of season-long top-12 production.

Honorable mention

  • Chargers TE Donald Parham (N/A ADP, TE6) has caught six of his seven targets for 33 yards and *three* TDs this season, snagging scores from one, one and three yards out. As someone who drafted entirely too much Gerald Everett this offseason: Pain. While Parham will continue to be heavily involved in the team’s red-zone plans — and perhaps more overall with Mike Williams (knee, IR) lost for the season — he’s clearly someone Justin Herbert feels comfortable targeting close to the end zone. This TE1 production won’t continue (right?), but don’t be surprised if Chargers fantasy managers are vultured by the backup 6-foot-8 TE a few more times this season.
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