Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings and Tiers. It's Tony Pollard Time.
It's time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 1 of the fantasy football season.
Below, you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, team totals and spreads for every game on the slate.
Find all of our positional rankings here.
Last updated: 3:45 pm, Sept. 6. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!
Quarterback Rankings & Tiers - Week 1
| Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | DET | 28.50 | -4.5 |
| 2 | 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | NYJ | 24.50 | -2.5 |
| 3 | 1 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | HOU | 27.00 | -10.0 |
| 4 | 1 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | NE | 24.50 | -4.0 |
| 5 | 1 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | MIA | 27.00 | -3.0 |
| 6 | 2 | Justin Fields | CHI | QB | GB | 22.00 | -1.0 |
| 7 | 2 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | LAC | 24.00 | 3.0 |
| 8 | 2 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | CLE | 25.00 | -2.5 |
| 9 | 3 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | CIN | 22.50 | 2.5 |
| 10 | 3 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | QB | TB | 25.75 | -6.0 |
| 11 | 3 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | IND | 25.00 | -5.0 |
| 12 | 3 | Anthony Richardson | IND | QB | JAX | 20.00 | 5.0 |
| 13 | 3 | Geno Smith | SEA | QB | LAR | 26.00 | -5.5 |
| 14 | 3 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | NYG | 25.00 | -3.5 |
| 15 | 3 | Daniel Jones | NYG | QB | DAL | 21.50 | 3.5 |
| 16 | 4 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | KC | 24.00 | 4.5 |
| 17 | 4 | Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | QB | BUF | 22.00 | 2.5 |
| 18 | 4 | Russell Wilson | DEN | QB | LV | 24.00 | -4.0 |
| 19 | 4 | Sam Howell | WAS | QB | ARI | 22.50 | -7.0 |
| 20 | 5 | Derek Carr | NO | QB | TEN | 22.00 | -3.0 |
| 21 | 5 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | PIT | 21.75 | -2.5 |
| 22 | 5 | Jordan Love | GB | QB | CHI | 21.00 | 1.0 |
| 23 | 5 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | QB | SF | 19.25 | 2.5 |
| 24 | 6 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | QB | NO | 19.00 | 3.0 |
| 25 | 6 | Bryce Young | CAR | QB | ATL | 18.00 | 3.5 |
| 26 | 6 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | BAL | 17.00 | 10.0 |
| 27 | 6 | Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | QB | DEN | 20.00 | 4.0 |
| 28 | 6 | Mac Jones | NE | QB | PHI | 20.50 | 4.0 |
| 29 | 7 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | SEA | 20.50 | 5.5 |
| 30 | 7 | Desmond Ridder | ATL | QB | CAR | 21.50 | -3.5 |
| 31 | 7 | Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | MIN | 19.75 | 6.0 |
| 32 | 7 | Joshua Dobbs | ARI | QB | WAS | 15.50 | 7.0 |
Tier 1 – Justin Herbert - Chargers
Herbert limped to a 17.3 points per game (PPG) finish last season thanks to multiple injuries and a receiving corps that featured Keenan Allen and Mike Williams together in only four full contests.
However, a lot has changed since the end of last season. Herbert is healthy, along with Allen and Williams, plus the team added first-rounder Quentin Johnston. New playcaller Kellen Moore will look to keep the Chargers among the league leaders in passing attempts per game as Herbert bounces back to form.
The Chargers carry the second-highest team total on the slate in what should be one of the most explosive games of the weekend against the Dolphins. Miami made offseason moves to shore up their secondary, but Jalen Ramsey is out until December (meniscus). Vic Fangio will try to take away the big plays, but Herbert has the weapons to take what the defense gives him.
Herbert is a SMASH play in a potential shootout against the Dolphins.
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Additional QB Notes & Movers:
- Tier 4 – Sam Howell and the Commanders have the eighth-highest team total and draw a juicy matchup against a Cardinals defense that allowed the fifth-most regulation yards and third-most TDs per game through the air. Things don’t look much better for 2023 — every defender besides Budda Baker grades outside the top 30 at their position per PFF. Howell is a mid-range QB2 with QB1 upside thanks to the matchups and his rushing upside.
- Tier 4 – Derek Carr gets new life with the Saints, where he will look to connect with budding superstar Chris Olave. It could be a quick start for the duo against the Titans, who allowed the most passing yards per game in regulation (290) and third-most TDs. Carr is a mid-range QB2 with the ingredients for a potential explosion game.
Running Back Rankings & Tiers - Week 1
| Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread |
| 1 | Tony Pollard | DAL | RB | NYG | 25.0 | -3.5 |
| 1 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | CAR | 21.5 | -3.5 |
| 1 | Austin Ekeler | LAC | RB | MIA | 27.0 | -3.0 |
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | PIT | 21.8 | -2.5 |
| 1 | Saquon Barkley | NYG | RB | DAL | 21.5 | 3.5 |
| 2 | Derrick Henry | TEN | RB | NO | 19.0 | 3.0 |
| 2 | Joe Mixon | CIN | RB | CLE | 25.0 | -2.5 |
| 2 | Travis Etienne | JAX | RB | IND | 25.0 | -5.0 |
| 2 | Josh Jacobs | LV | RB | DEN | 20.0 | 4.0 |
| 2 | Nick Chubb | CLE | RB | CIN | 22.5 | 2.5 |
| 3 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | PHI | 20.5 | 4.0 |
| 3 | Aaron Jones | GB | RB | CHI | 21.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | KC | 24.0 | 4.5 |
| 3 | J.K. Dobbins | BAL | RB | HOU | 27.0 | -10.0 |
| 3 | Alexander Mattison | MIN | RB | TB | 25.8 | -6.0 |
| 3 | Rachaad White | TB | RB | MIN | 19.8 | 6.0 |
| 3 | David Montgomery | DET | RB | KC | 24.0 | 4.5 |
| 3 | Najee Harris | PIT | RB | SF | 19.3 | 2.5 |
| 4 | James Cook | BUF | RB | NYJ | 24.5 | -2.5 |
| 4 | Miles Sanders | CAR | RB | ATL | 18.0 | 3.5 |
| 4 | Cam Akers | LAR | RB | SEA | 20.5 | 5.5 |
| 4 | Raheem Mostert | MIA | RB | LAC | 24.0 | 3.0 |
| 4 | Dameon Pierce | HOU | RB | BAL | 17.0 | 10.0 |
| 4 | Kenneth Walker | SEA | RB | LAR | 26.0 | -5.5 |
| 4 | Javonte Williams | DEN | RB | LV | 24.0 | -4.0 |
| 4 | Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | BUF | 22.0 | 2.5 |
| 4 | James Conner | ARI | RB | WAS | 15.5 | 7.0 |
| 5 | Khalil Herbert | CHI | RB | GB | 22.0 | -1.0 |
| 5 | Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | DET | 28.5 | -4.5 |
| 5 | Brian Robinson | WAS | RB | ARI | 22.5 | -7.0 |
| 5 | Jamaal Williams | NO | RB | TEN | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 5 | Dalvin Cook | NYJ | RB | BUF | 22.0 | 2.5 |
| 5 | Samaje Perine | DEN | RB | LV | 24.0 | -4.0 |
| 5 | Antonio Gibson | WAS | RB | ARI | 22.5 | -7.0 |
| 5 | D'Andre Swift | PHI | RB | NE | 24.5 | -4.0 |
| 5 | AJ Dillon | GB | RB | CHI | 21.0 | 1.0 |
| 6 | Jerick McKinnon | KC | RB | DET | 28.5 | -4.5 |
| 6 | Devon Achane | MIA | RB | LAC | 24.0 | 3.0 |
| 6 | Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | LAR | 26.0 | -5.5 |
| 6 | Damien Harris | BUF | RB | NYJ | 24.5 | -2.5 |
| 6 | Rashaad Penny | PHI | RB | NE | 24.5 | -4.0 |
| 6 | Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | RB | NE | 24.5 | -4.0 |
| 6 | Zack Moss | IND | RB | JAX | 20.0 | 5.0 |
| 6 | Ezekiel Elliott | NE | RB | PHI | 20.5 | 4.0 |
| 6 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | SF | 19.3 | 2.5 |
| 6 | Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | PIT | 21.8 | -2.5 |
| 7 | Tank Bigsby | JAX | RB | IND | 25.0 | -5.0 |
| 7 | Kendre Miller | NO | RB | TEN | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 7 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | RB | DET | 28.5 | -4.5 |
| 7 | Tyjae Spears | TEN | RB | NO | 19.0 | 3.0 |
| 7 | Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | CAR | 21.5 | -3.5 |
| 7 | D'Onta Foreman | CHI | RB | GB | 22.0 | -1.0 |
| 7 | Deon Jackson | IND | RB | JAX | 20.0 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | ATL | 18.0 | 3.5 |
| 7 | Ty Chandler | MIN | RB | TB | 25.8 | -6.0 |
| 7 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | SEA | 20.5 | 5.5 |
| 7 | Devin Singletary | HOU | RB | BAL | 17.0 | 10.0 |
| 7 | Gus Edwards | BAL | RB | HOU | 27.0 | -10.0 |
| 8 | Cordarrelle Patterson | ATL | RB | CAR | 21.5 | -3.5 |
| 8 | Roschon Johnson | CHI | RB | GB | 22.0 | -1.0 |
| 8 | Rico Dowdle | DAL | RB | NYG | 25.0 | -3.5 |
| 8 | Keaontay Ingram | ARI | RB | WAS | 15.5 | 7.0 |
| 8 | Jerome Ford | CLE | RB | CIN | 22.5 | 2.5 |
| 8 | Deuce Vaughn | DAL | RB | NYG | 25.0 | -3.5 |
| 9 | Joshua Kelley | LAC | RB | MIA | 27.0 | -3.0 |
| 9 | Sean Tucker | TB | RB | MIN | 19.8 | 6.0 |
| 9 | Zamir White | LV | RB | DEN | 20.0 | 4.0 |
| 9 | Justice Hill | BAL | RB | HOU | 27.0 | -10.0 |
| 8 | Chris Evans | CIN | RB | CLE | 25.0 | -2.5 |
| 9 | Chase Edmonds | TB | RB | MIN | 19.8 | 6.0 |
| 9 | Michael Carter | NYJ | RB | BUF | 22.0 | 2.5 |
| 9 | Ameer Abdullah | LV | RB | DEN | 20.0 | 4.0 |
| 9 | Matt Breida | NYG | RB | DAL | 21.5 | 3.5 |
| 9 | Latavius Murray | BUF | RB | NYJ | 24.5 | -2.5 |
| 9 | Trayveon Williams | CIN | RB | CLE | 25.0 | -2.5 |
| 10 | Salvon Ahmed | MIA | RB | LAC | 24.0 | 3.0 |
| 10 | Zach Evans | LAR | RB | SEA | 20.5 | 5.5 |
| 10 | Ke'Shawn Vaughn | TB | RB | MIN | 19.8 | 6.0 |
| 10 | Myles Gaskin | MIN | RB | TB | 25.8 | -6.0 |
| 10 | JaMycal Hasty | JAX | RB | IND | 25.0 | -5.0 |
| 10 | Jordan Mason | SF | RB | PIT | 21.8 | -2.5 |
| 10 | Pierre Strong | CLE | RB | CIN | 22.5 | 2.5 |
Tier 1 – Tony Pollard - Cowboys
Pollard averaged 18.6 points per game in contests where he reached 50% or more of the snaps in 2022. With Ezekiel Elliott now in New England, that could be his weekly floor, given the current depth chart in Dallas.
The 26-year-old backed up his lofty fantasy points with robust underlying efficiency data, eclipsing RB1-worthy thresholds in missed tackles forced (+5%), average yards after contact (+0.9) and explosive rush rate (+4%). He was equally impressive in the passing game with 20% targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.51 yards per route run (YPRR), both RB1-worthy.
Pollard will look to start the 2023 season with a bang, facing last season's fourth-worst rush defense. The Giants allowed a whopping 146 yards and 1.1 rushing TDs per game in regulation play.
The Cowboys own the fifth-highest game total on the slate in what could be a competitive Sunday Night affair.
Pollard TO THE MOON in Week 1 as a SMASH play in all formats.
Tier 3 – J.K. Dobbins - Ravens
Dobbins wasn’t 100% in 2022, but he still managed to post RB1-worthy efficiency numbers in missed tackles forced (20%), average yards after contact (3.1) and blew away the RB1 threshold of 12% with 17% of his totes going for 10-plus yards.
As great as those numbers were, Dobbins was even better before his 2021 knee injury. In 2020, he was dominant:
- Missed tackles forced: 27% (10% above the RB1 threshold)
- Average yards after contact: 3.5 (.56 yards above the RB1 threshold)
- Explosive rush rate: 15% (3 percentage points above the RB1 threshold)
Enter the Baltimore’s Week 1 matchup: the Houston Texans.
No team in the NFL allowed more rushing yards per game (170) in regulation play, and they coughed up the second-most TDs (1.47).
Lamar Jackson will get his 20% to 25% of the designed rushing attempts, but we could see a shift in the RB rotation with Tod Monken now running the offense. Historically, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill have rotated with Dobbins, but there is a chance we see the fourth-year back in the most extensive role of his career. Even if the timeshare continues, the matchup is too juicy not to have Dobbins in most lineups.
Dobbins is a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside.
Additional RB Notes & Movers:
- Tier 5 – Khalil Herbert was the clear No. 1 for the Bears this preseason. In Week 1, he draws a matchup against a Packers defense that surrendered 140 yards per game in non-overtime play — the seventh-most in 2022. Herbert is an RB3 with RB2 upside.
Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers - Week 1
| Half PPR Rnk | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | TB | 25.8 | -6.0 |
| 2 | 1 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | CLE | 25.0 | -2.5 |
| 3 | 1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | KC | 24.0 | 4.5 |
| 4 | 1 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | LAC | 24.0 | 3.0 |
| 5 | 1 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | NYJ | 24.5 | -2.5 |
| 6 | 1 | Davante Adams | LV | WR | DEN | 20.0 | 4.0 |
| 7 | 1 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | NYG | 25.0 | -3.5 |
| 8 | 2 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | BUF | 22.0 | 2.5 |
| 9 | 2 | A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | NE | 24.5 | -4.0 |
| 10 | 2 | Calvin Ridley | JAX | WR | IND | 25.0 | -5.0 |
| 11 | 2 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | MIA | 27.0 | -3.0 |
| 12 | 2 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | LAC | 24.0 | 3.0 |
| 13 | 2 | Chris Olave | NO | WR | TEN | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 14 | 2 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | CLE | 25.0 | -2.5 |
| 15 | 2 | Mike Williams | LAC | WR | MIA | 27.0 | -3.0 |
| 16 | 2 | Amari Cooper | CLE | WR | CIN | 22.5 | 2.5 |
| 17 | 2 | Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | PIT | 21.8 | -2.5 |
| 17 | 2 | DK Metcalf | SEA | WR | LAR | 26.0 | -5.5 |
| 18 | 2 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | LAR | 26.0 | -5.5 |
| 19 | 2 | Chris Godwin | TB | WR | MIN | 19.8 | 6.0 |
| 20 | 2 | DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | WR | NO | 19.0 | 3.0 |
| 21 | 3 | Christian Watson | GB | WR | CHI | 21.0 | 1.0 |
| 22 | 3 | Jahan Dotson | WAS | WR | ARI | 22.5 | -7.0 |
| 23 | 3 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | MIN | 19.8 | 6.0 |
| 24 | 3 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | NE | 24.5 | -4.0 |
| 25 | 3 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | WR | SF | 19.3 | 2.5 |
| 26 | 3 | DJ Moore | CHI | WR | GB | 22.0 | -1.0 |
| 27 | 3 | Drake London | ATL | WR | CAR | 21.5 | -3.5 |
| 28 | 3 | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | PIT | 21.8 | -2.5 |
| 29 | 3 | Gabe Davis | BUF | WR | NYJ | 24.5 | -2.5 |
| 30 | 3 | Christian Kirk | JAX | WR | IND | 25.0 | -5.0 |
| 31 | 3 | Michael Thomas | NO | WR | TEN | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 32 | 3 | George Pickens | PIT | WR | SF | 19.3 | 2.5 |
| 33 | 3 | Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | TB | 25.8 | -6.0 |
| 34 | 3 | Marquise Brown | ARI | WR | WAS | 15.5 | 7.0 |
| 35 | 3 | Michael Pittman | IND | WR | JAX | 20.0 | 5.0 |
| 36 | 4 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | ARI | 22.5 | -7.0 |
| 37 | 4 | Nico Collins | HOU | WR | BAL | 17.0 | 10.0 |
| 38 | 4 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | LV | 24.0 | -4.0 |
| 39 | 4 | Skyy Moore | KC | WR | DET | 28.5 | -4.5 |
| 40 | 4 | Brandin Cooks | DAL | WR | NYG | 25.0 | -3.5 |
| 41 | 4 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | LAR | 26.0 | -5.5 |
| 42 | 4 | Adam Thielen | CAR | WR | ATL | 18.0 | 3.5 |
| 43 | 4 | Treylon Burks | TEN | WR | NO | 19.0 | 3.0 |
| 44 | 4 | Elijah Moore | CLE | WR | CIN | 22.5 | 2.5 |
| 45 | 4 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | HOU | 27.0 | -10.0 |
| 46 | 4 | Marvin Mims | DEN | WR | LV | 24.0 | -4.0 |
| 47 | 4 | Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | HOU | 27.0 | -10.0 |
| 48 | 4 | Kadarius Toney | KC | WR | DET | 28.5 | -4.5 |
| 49 | 5 | Allen Lazard | NYJ | WR | BUF | 22.0 | 2.5 |
| 50 | 5 | Odell Beckham | BAL | WR | HOU | 27.0 | -10.0 |
| 51 | 5 | Van Jefferson | LAR | WR | SEA | 20.5 | 5.5 |
| 52 | 5 | Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | CHI | 21.0 | 1.0 |
| 53 | 5 | Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | MIA | 27.0 | -3.0 |
| 54 | 5 | Jonathan Mingo | CAR | WR | ATL | 18.0 | 3.5 |
| 55 | 5 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | CLE | 25.0 | -2.5 |
| 56 | 5 | DeVante Parker | NE | WR | PHI | 20.5 | 4.0 |
| 57 | 5 | Jakobi Meyers | LV | WR | DEN | 20.0 | 4.0 |
| 58 | 5 | Zay Jones | JAX | WR | IND | 25.0 | -5.0 |
| 59 | 5 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | NE | WR | PHI | 20.5 | 4.0 |
| 60 | 5 | Alec Pierce | IND | WR | JAX | 20.0 | 5.0 |
| 61 | 5 | Isaiah Hodgins | NYG | WR | DAL | 21.5 | 3.5 |
| 62 | 5 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | CLE | WR | CIN | 22.5 | 2.5 |
| 63 | 6 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | WR | DET | 28.5 | -4.5 |
| 64 | 6 | K.J. Osborn | MIN | WR | TB | 25.8 | -6.0 |
| 65 | 6 | Robert Woods | HOU | WR | BAL | 17.0 | 10.0 |
| 66 | 6 | Rondale Moore | ARI | WR | WAS | 15.5 | 7.0 |
| 67 | 6 | DJ Chark | CAR | WR | ATL | 18.0 | 3.5 |
| 68 | 6 | Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | NYG | 25.0 | -3.5 |
| 69 | 6 | Darnell Mooney | CHI | WR | GB | 22.0 | -1.0 |
| 70 | 6 | Jayden Reed | GB | WR | CHI | 21.0 | 1.0 |
| 71 | 6 | Allen Robinson | PIT | WR | SF | 19.3 | 2.5 |
| 72 | 6 | Curtis Samuel | WAS | WR | ARI | 22.5 | -7.0 |
| 73 | 6 | Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | DAL | 21.5 | 3.5 |
| 74 | 6 | Mack Hollins | ATL | WR | CAR | 21.5 | -3.5 |
| 75 | 6 | Hunter Renfrow | LV | WR | DEN | 20.0 | 4.0 |
| 76 | 7 | Rashid Shaheed | NO | WR | TEN | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 77 | 7 | Josh Downs | IND | WR | JAX | 20.0 | 5.0 |
| 78 | 7 | Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | SEA | 20.5 | 5.5 |
| 79 | 7 | Joshua Palmer | LAC | WR | MIA | 27.0 | -3.0 |
| 80 | 7 | Deonte Harty | BUF | WR | NYJ | 24.5 | -2.5 |
| 81 | 7 | Mecole Hardman | NYJ | WR | BUF | 22.0 | 2.5 |
| 82 | 7 | Tank Dell | HOU | WR | BAL | 17.0 | 10.0 |
| 83 | 7 | Michael Wilson | ARI | WR | WAS | 15.5 | 7.0 |
| 84 | 7 | Marvin Jones | DET | WR | KC | 24.0 | 4.5 |
| 85 | 7 | Trey Palmer | TB | WR | MIN | 19.8 | 6.0 |
| 86 | 7 | TuTu Atwell | LAR | WR | SEA | 20.5 | 5.5 |
| 87 | 7 | Josh Reynolds | DET | WR | KC | 24.0 | 4.5 |
| 88 | 7 | Kendrick Bourne | NE | WR | PHI | 20.5 | 4.0 |
| 89 | 7 | Chase Claypool | CHI | WR | GB | 22.0 | -1.0 |
| 90 | 8 | Jalin Hyatt | NYG | WR | DAL | 21.5 | 3.5 |
| 91 | 8 | Richie James | KC | WR | DET | 28.5 | -4.5 |
| 92 | 8 | Justyn Ross | KC | WR | DET | 28.5 | -4.5 |
| 93 | 8 | Parris Campbell | NYG | WR | DAL | 21.5 | 3.5 |
| 94 | 8 | Rashee Rice | KC | WR | DET | 28.5 | -4.5 |
| 95 | 8 | Randall Cobb | NYJ | WR | BUF | 22.0 | 2.5 |
| 96 | 8 | Kyle Philips | TEN | WR | NO | 19.0 | 3.0 |
| 97 | 8 | Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | PIT | 21.8 | -2.5 |
| 98 | 8 | Braxton Berrios | MIA | WR | LAC | 24.0 | 3.0 |
| 99 | 8 | Olamide Zaccheaus | PHI | WR | NE | 24.5 | -4.0 |
| 100 | 8 | Noah Brown | HOU | WR | BAL | 17.0 | 10.0 |
| 101 | 8 | Brandon Johnson | DEN | WR | LV | 24.0 | -4.0 |
| 102 | 8 | Cedrick Wilson | MIA | WR | LAC | 24.0 | 3.0 |
| 103 | 8 | Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | DAL | 21.5 | 3.5 |
Tier 2 – Chris Olave - Saints
Olave delivered a WR3-worthy 13.4 PPG in his rookie season, BUT his underlying talent profile suggests there is much more to come. Based on target share, yards per route run and PFF receiving grade using data back to 2012, his rookie comps were out of this world:
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Justin Jefferson
- A.J. Brown
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Doug Baldwin
With Derek Carr in the fold, Olave has a QB who supported a top-12 WR or top-6 TE in five consecutive seasons. Before that, Carr had two top-36 WRs in three straight seasons.
In Week 1, the newly formed duo will have an opportunity to kickstart their season with a juicy matchup against the worst pass defense from 2022. The Titans allowed 290 yards receiving per game and the third-most receiving TDs (1.7).
Given three out of four starters in Tennessee’s secondary grade 56th or lower per PFF grades, they could hemorrhage yards and points via the air again in 2023.
Olave is a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside.
Tier 3 – Jahan Dotson
Dotson came on at the end of last season, averaging 12.6 points per game with a 23% target share once he took over a full-time role in Week 13. He has kept his mojo going this preseason with a 27% target share in 44 dropbacks with Sam Howell on the field.
With Terry McLaurin unlikely to be at 100% (if he plays), Dotson is a near lock to be the focal point of the Commanders' passing attack in Week 1 in a great matchup against the Cardinals.
While Washington could run the ball plenty as seven-point favorites, there should be ample opportunity against a pass defense that allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game in regulation play in 2022.
Dotson is a low-end WR2 with WR1 upside.
Additional WR Notes & Movers:
- Tier 4 – Marvin Mims could be a near-every-down player with Jerry Jeudy in question for their Week 1 matchup against the Raiders. Mims was a favorite of the Rookie WR Super Model, scoring as highly as first-rounders. The Raiders gave up the seventh-most receiving points per game in regulation in 2022 and still have more questions than answers on their depth chart. Mims is a WR4 with upside.
Tight End Rankings & Tiers - Week 1
| Half PPR Rnk | Tier | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Team Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | HOU | 27.0 | -10.0 |
| 2 | 1 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | DET | 28.5 | -4.5 |
| 3 | 2 | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | TB | 25.8 | -6.0 |
| 4 | 2 | Darren Waller | NYG | TE | DAL | 21.5 | 3.5 |
| 5 | 3 | George Kittle | SF | TE | PIT | 21.8 | -2.5 |
| 6 | 3 | Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | SEA | 20.5 | 5.5 |
| 7 | 3 | Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | CAR | 21.5 | -3.5 |
| 8 | 3 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | NE | 24.5 | -4.0 |
| 9 | 3 | David Njoku | CLE | TE | CIN | 22.5 | 2.5 |
| 10 | 3 | Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | KC | 24.0 | 4.5 |
| 11 | 3 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | SF | 19.3 | 2.5 |
| 12 | 3 | Evan Engram | JAX | TE | IND | 25.0 | -5.0 |
| 13 | 4 | Greg Dulcich | DEN | TE | LV | 24.0 | -4.0 |
| 14 | 4 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | NYJ | 24.5 | -2.5 |
| 14 | 4 | Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | BAL | 17.0 | 10.0 |
| 15 | 4 | Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | TEN | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 16 | 4 | Luke Musgrave | GB | TE | CHI | 21.0 | 1.0 |
| 17 | 4 | Gerald Everett | LAC | TE | MIA | 27.0 | -3.0 |
| 18 | 4 | Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN | TE | NO | 19.0 | 3.0 |
| 19 | 5 | Hayden Hurst | CAR | TE | ATL | 18.0 | 3.5 |
| 20 | 5 | Hunter Henry | NE | TE | PHI | 20.5 | 4.0 |
| 21 | 5 | Irv Smith | CIN | TE | CLE | 25.0 | -2.5 |
| 22 | 5 | Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | NYG | 25.0 | -3.5 |
| 23 | 5 | Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | GB | 22.0 | -1.0 |
| 24 | 5 | Cade Otton | TB | TE | MIN | 19.8 | 6.0 |
| 25 | 5 | Mike Gesicki | NE | TE | PHI | 20.5 | 4.0 |
| 26 | 5 | Tyler Conklin | NYJ | TE | BUF | 22.0 | 2.5 |
| 27 | 5 | Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | NYJ | 24.5 | -2.5 |
| 28 | 6 | Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | HOU | 27.0 | -10.0 |
| 29 | 6 | Taysom Hill | NO | TE | TEN | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 30 | 6 | Durham Smythe | MIA | TE | LAC | 24.0 | 3.0 |
| 31 | 6 | Logan Thomas | WAS | TE | ARI | 22.5 | -7.0 |
| 32 | 6 | Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | LV | 24.0 | -4.0 |
| 33 | 6 | Trey McBride | ARI | TE | WAS | 15.5 | 7.0 |
| 34 | 6 | Noah Fant | SEA | TE | LAR | 26.0 | -5.5 |
| 35 | 7 | Austin Hooper | LV | TE | DEN | 20.0 | 4.0 |
| 36 | 7 | Zach Ertz | ARI | TE | WAS | 15.5 | 7.0 |
| 37 | 7 | Michael Mayer | LV | TE | DEN | 20.0 | 4.0 |
| 38 | 7 | Mo Alie-Cox | IND | TE | JAX | 20.0 | 5.0 |
| 39 | 7 | Will Dissly | SEA | TE | LAR | 26.0 | -5.5 |
| 40 | 7 | Foster Moreau | NO | TE | TEN | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 41 | 7 | Noah Gray | KC | TE | DET | 28.5 | -4.5 |
| 42 | 7 | Jonnu Smith | ATL | TE | CAR | 21.5 | -3.5 |
| 43 | 7 | Cole Turner | WAS | TE | ARI | 22.5 | -7.0 |
| 44 | 7 | Kylen Granson | IND | TE | JAX | 20.0 | 5.0 |
Tier 3 – Sam LaPorta - Lions
Rookie TEs don’t historically perform well in fantasy football. However, much of that ties to playing time rather than the ability to carve out targets in a passing game. Since 2012, we saw two rookies finish with a 75% route participation or higher, and they both faired well.
- Evan Engram (2017): TE7 in PPR PPG (11.6)
- Kyle Pitts (2021): TE11 (10.4)
Given the Lions’ depth chart and preseason utilization, LaPorta will push for an 80% route participation in his first year. Of course, just getting on the field isn’t enough. LaPorta was a high-end target earner who broke out early at Iowa State.
The Lions won’t have Jameson Williams for the first six games of the season, leaving LaPorta and fellow rookie Jahmyr Gibbs as two of the favorites to challenge for more looks. Josh Reynolds and Marvin Jones will also get more work, but neither are high-end target magnets, leaving the door open for a talent like LaPorta to start his rookie campaign hot.
The Lions have the seventh-highest team total on the slate, and the Chiefs allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing pass catchers (47.3) in regulation play in 2022.
LaPorta opens the season as my TE10 in Week 1.
TE Notes & Movers:
- Tier 4 – Luke Musgrave, like LaPorta, is in line for prominent playing time. The rookie wasn’t a high-end target earner in college but led the Packers with a 22% target share on drives with Jordan Love this preseason. With Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs battling injuries, Musgrave could pop in Week 1. He is a mid-range TE2 with TE1 upside.
